Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in SA

Four months out from the election, Newspoll has produced its latest quarterly survey of South Australian state voting intention. Conducted in tandem with federal polling over the past three months, it is of course the first to appear since the onset of Mike Rann’s present difficulties with Michelle Chantelois and her husband. Labor’s vote is down four points to an alarming 37 per cent, but as the Liberals can still only manage 35 per cent (up two), they still hold a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred. The Greens are up a point to 12 per cent, compared with 6.5 per cent at the 2006 election.

Importantly, Rann’s approval rating has not taken a hit: he is down one point to 50 per cent, while disapproval is down two to 38 per cent. The poll also provides further evidence that the South Australian Liberals have, not for the first time, stumbled by accident upon a better leadership proposition than what they had to begin with. After making a strong debut in August with an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 10 per cent, Redmond is now up eight points on both measures to 51 per cent and 18 per cent. However, Rann retains a strong lead on preferred premier of 48 per cent (up two) to 31 per cent (up four).

Here are charts showing the progress of South Australian Newspoll results over the current term.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

93 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in SA”

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  1. A very tight election looming, but can’t see the Greens winning any lower house seats. But they might be a chance for two in the upper house.

  2. Not really, the Greens are younger in SA than in pretty well all other states bar QLD. And on a side note I’ll give you 100/1 that the Greens will win Vaucluse. It would be a shame if Rann didn’t win; almost a victory for tabloid journalism.

  3. [Does SA have any seats like Melbourne where the Greens have a good chance or Marrickville/Vauclause?]

    The highest the Greens got in 2006 was 17% in Heysen – Redmond’s seat.

    [Bob: as your preferences come back to Labor, what’s there to be afraid of?]

    The upper house 😀

    [But they might be a chance for two in the upper house.]

    I’m going 2-3 😀

    [It would be a shame if Rann didn’t win]

    On balance I still think Rann will win, he certainly doesn’t deserve to lose based on the general shape/record of his 8-year government in comparison to the Liberals (Brown-Olsen-Kerin… what a joke…).

  4. http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/091204 SA Voting Intention & Leaders Ratings Oct – Dec.pdf

    There are some interesting ratings… Rann’s sat/disat is 50/38 down 1 down 2, Redmond’s is 51/18 up 8 up 8… statistically some are happy with both, how odd and rare.

    PPM is 48/31 up 2 up 4.

    On 53/47, with a primary of 37 (their lowest this term even moreso than the 50/50), Rann has reason to be positive and negative. It is a bittersweet poll. There is some good but there are warning signs. Based on all these ratings, Rann is certainly perched precariously at the moment.

    Maybe Labor might lose some seats in 2006. Funny though that The Advertiser didn’t pick up on it… unless of course the 57/43 figure was wrong and the metro/rural ones were right. I still don’t get that.

  5. Given the Liberals got squished last time, there’ll surely be some sort of rebound in 2010. But it might be like the last Vic and NSW elections, with the Libs recovering most of their base vote but not translating that into seats.

  6. the alp will win. greens are disappointing here, they are what i call ‘eco’ greens rather than ‘lefty’ greens. parnell is very good on enviro matters but doesn’t gather much traction on the social or economic matters. he is only one person obviously and it’d be great to see more greens in the upper house. i think the libs will rebuild their base as stated above which will be good for us as the alp will have a decent opposition finally.

  7. This looks more like what I’d expect. I’m sure all the people who whined endlessly saying that we shouldn’t discuss Rann’s problems look pretty stupid now. He’s probably lost a couple of % but will still win pretty comfortably.

  8. I have to say I’m surprised by how well Redmond is regarded. She’s come up with a few good ideas and is hammering Rann on not having an ICAC and over plans to redevelop the city but I didn’t think she done that good a job.

  9. Does anyone know what sample size this is? Still, it looks realistic; Labor on courwes to win with a similar margin to now, with Redmond seemign less error prone than her predecessor. She should drop the alternative stadium idea and stick to the no ICAC criticism – it is valid.

  10. Hamish

    No, SA doesn’t have an ICAC or an equivalent. Various bodies can look into corruption like the Auditor-General, the Ombudsman or the police but there are major concerns about how impartial they are.

    Rann hates lawyers says we don’t have corruption like the eastern states so we don’t need an ICAC.

  11. A quota in the SALC is eight and a third percent, so 12% is almost a quota and a half. The Greens are a shoe-in to get their lead candidate elected and have a chance, depending on preferences and the votes the other parties get, at getting their second candidate up. If they did this then they would have equalled the Democrats record of 3 MLCs.

  12. [Redmond seemign less error prone than her predecessor]

    That’s because she’s barely saying or doing anything. I think Redmond is as error prone as Chapman would have been… bring on the real 2010 election!!!

  13. It’s interesting to ponder the previous result that was close; it was said at the time that the poll was an outlier and it proved subsequently to be the case. As I recall, the Advertiser wanted to make some sort of political point at the time then as well (was that the one after the Chantelois interview?).

    Either way, they were WRONG, and I can’t help wondering whether this one is wrong as well. Look at the trend; like the Federal Government, the State Labor Government is travelling well and its support levels are pretty static.

    I want Poss to do a post and give us some smoothing. I suspect that, even factoring in the noise of this poll and the “outlier”, the trend will show overwhelming support for the government.

  14. “Smoothing” doesn’t achieve much when you only get four observations a year. I’d have thought the trend was that Labor were well ahead in the first half of the term and are only slightly ahead now. I wouldn’t be game to place a bet on the outcome of the election at this stage.

  15. [“Smoothing” doesn’t achieve much when you only get four observations a year. I’d have thought the trend was that Labor were well ahead in the first half of the term and are only slightly ahead now. I wouldn’t be game to place a bet on the outcome of the election at this stage.]

    William, considering the metro and rural figures from the Tiser poll, and that SA Labor has got 53 and 54 four times since late 2007, you wouldn’t consider this an outlier would you? The 50/50 one may have been but this isn’t too far removed.

    But for all this talk, a Lib primary of 35% is only 1% higher than in 2006. Labor’s primary of 37% will be bolstered by what I suspect will be a flood of Green prefs. But you’d have to go back to the last millennium to find the Newspoll Other rating as high as 13%…

  16. Labor hasn’t had a primary of 37% since prior to the 2002 election… but again, most of it has gone to the Greens, in that poll the Libs were on 42%.

  17. No, I don’t see any reason to think it’s an outlier – and yes, I do think it supports my contention that the Advertiser were in the ballpark with the metro figure and muffed non-metro. So at this stage we have a vague picture of a swing big enough to cost Labor Light and Mawson, but no more.

    What would worry me if I were Labor is Isobel Redmond’s personal ratings. As Antony Green demonstrates, people don’t really get to know opposition leaders until election campaigns. If Redmond really is as saleable as 51%-18% makes her appear, a lot of the 31% undecided will break her way during the campaign, and many will jump on the Liberal bandwagon in doing so. If Redmond in particular and the Liberals in general run a tight ship between now and the election, I reckon they’re a shot.

  18. Consider this. There is no coalition in SA, the Nats get 1%, they don’t count. The Libs have got 35% four times throughout the last term. Mid-2007 with Labor on 47%, mid-2008 on 41%, Late 2008 with 39%, and now with 37%. On these Lib 35% polls, there’s been no transfer of 2pp vote. The Greens have bubbled from 4% to 12%, and others, whilst higher than usual at 13%, is only 2% more than prior to the 2006 election where others only ended up getting 3.4%, the excess ended up falling to the minor parties.

    The Labor base is rebelling.

  19. [What would worry me if I were Labor is Isobel Redmond’s personal ratings. As Antony Green demonstrates, people don’t really get to know opposition leaders until election campaigns. If Redmond really is as saleable as 51%-18% makes her appear, a lot of the 31% undecided will break her way during the campaign, and many will jump on the Liberal bandwagon in doing so. If Redmond in particular and the Liberals in general run a tight ship between now and the election, I reckon they’re a shot.]

    I just don’t think she’s been out there enough. Wait for the blowtorch of the election campaign. I just think she’s too error-prone and lightweight.

  20. With respect William, I have to agree with bob on this one – Redmond is a complete and utter lightweight. This is the person who this week had herself tasered by police in private for no apparent reason. This is hardly the sort of thing prospective premiers go around doing. Liberals to lose badly and Vickie Chapman to be opposition leader after the election.

  21. I’m with William on this one. I think Redmond is a light-weight but she’s not error-prone. I’m pretty sure she will lose though but not by a lot.

  22. [I’m pretty sure she will lose though but not by a lot.]
    In the interest of good government that’s probably a good thing ie that it is close and that she loses.

  23. I too agree with William. Redmond is a cleanskin. The same cannot be said of Rann. The first seats to fall will be Morialta and Norwood.

  24. TT

    Agree that Norwood is gone. The Save the RAH Party is targetting the five most marginal seats and will preference the Libs. Norwood will be sensitive to RAH issues.

  25. It’s good to see the greens vote staying up above ten percent. SA has always been a weak link in the Greens chain, but not any more it seems. Both Mark Parnell in the LC and Sarah Hanson-Young in the Senate have done a great job raising the party’s profile.

    There is a lot of potential for greens’ improvement in the lower house. Seats in the Adelaide hills (Heysen, Davenport, Kavel) and also in the old Liberal Movement and Democrats strongholds in the inner south and east should show much stronger votes this time around. No chance of a win anywhere though. The Dems got an average vote of over sixteen percent at the 1997 election and even then they couldn’t break through in any lower house seats – even the one they used to hold back in the old days (Waite).

    And I don’t think people should get too excited about a second upper house quota for the greens either. I’m expecting a vote of around 9 -10% which won’t be nearly enough to elect a second candidate. Tammy Jennings (number one on the ticket) is a shoe-in though.

    Rann and Labor will get back in comfortably. “Everyone really likes him and thinks he does a good job,” said my mother the other day when I asked her opinion of the whole “scandal” that’s been going on. My mother, though unsophisticated in her political attitudes, is generally on the pulse of the common voter, given that she is one.

    Redmond could win an election if the government was old and tired, but this one ain’t falling apart yet – not even after it was battered about with a rolled up magazine.

  26. I think Mawson is more likely to fall than Norwood. As for the RAH issue – I’ve always been convinced there is no negative here for the state government. Opposition parties that want to campaign against the building of a brand new hospital will get what they truly deserve. The state government’s green credentials will go down well with the folk in Norwood – this is set to be a major theme of the state election campaign, particularly with SA leading the nation on a vast number of environmental indicators.

  27. People forget that Norwood’s margin is artificially small.

    The reason it barely swung last time was Nigel Smart’s candidacy. Had he not contested, it probably would’ve seen the same huge swing that all other metropolitan produced.

    Smart’s not the Liberal candidate this time. So I would expect some swing back to Labor.

  28. I partly agree with you David re the Nigel Smart factor – but I do think the demographic changes in that seat mean that when the seat falls to a decent liberal candidate, it will be hard to win back for labor. I don’t see that being in 2010 though.

  29. The other thing which amuses me is that the Liberals are still yet to preselect candidates in a number of state seats, only 3 months out from the state election. I believe an advert was placed in the Advertiser this week. One of these seats is Colton, which was held by the liberals as recently as 2002, and was effectively the seat labor won to take government in that election. This would greatly disturb me if I was a liberal party member.

  30. [The first seats to fall will be Morialta and Norwood.]

    Rubbish. There’s a few seats for the picking with less margin than the current fairly safe Labor margin for Morialta.

  31. [I agree with you Bob on Morialta, but I think the margin looks fairly inflated to me relative to its demography.]

    Only the deep south of Morialta is naturally Liberal.

  32. With suburbs such as Rostrevor, Magill, and Rosslyn Park within its midst, the libs should be expecting to get an above average swing of 4-5% in this seat. I cant see the statewide swing being more than about 2%.

  33. [With suburbs such as Rostrevor, Magill, and Rosslyn Park within its midst]

    If we look at the 2007 federal election where Labor got 52.7% 2pp nationally and 52.4% in SA, Labor got 51.2% and 50.6% in Rostrevor and Rostrevor South respectively. Magill North saw 58.1%, but only 47.1% in the other Magill booth.

    I don’t consider Rostrevor any more Liberal than it is Labor.

  34. [I cant see the statewide swing being more than about 2%.]

    So you predict that the smallest SA Labor 2PP statewide vote next year will be 54.8%? That’s still a very big margin…

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