Monday night Newspoll

I won’t be available to take part in this evening’s fortnightly Newspoll festivities (nor this afternoon’s Essential Research, which Possum tends to be timelier with in any case), but here’s a thread on which you can keep each other informed of the news as it breaks, as well as doing the other things you usually do.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

481 comments on “Monday night Newspoll”

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  1. Antony Green @ 46 I don’t remember the Liberals contesting Richmond in 1993 I believe Larry Anthony had it all to himself on behalf of the Coalition I know they contested Richmond in 1996 and ran a dismal third.

  2. Retail sales figures edge up
    [Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show retail sales crept up by a seasonally-adjusted 0.3 per cent to $19.35 billion in April.

    The figure follows an increase of 2.2 per cent in March and a decrease of 2 per cent in February.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/01/0000011.htm

    I wonder why the retail figures went up in March? What on earth could’ve caused that?

  3. Holding State Electoral Offices within Federal Divisions is of great assistance in winning such Federal Divisions. National Party state electoral offices are rich in Cowper, Page and Richmond afterall its only common sense but then common sense isn’t common to all.

  5. On the Gallaxy poll, Skynews concentrated on Rudd being found to be a strong leader but that he has a nasty streak if thwarted 😉 and they also try to make a big point that 17% would be less likely to vote Labor if there were an early election.
    So I’d say that all the media stories of Rudd losing his temper and abusing poor timid airforce and army people hasn’t worked the way they hoped, if anything it has made Rudd look like a tough hombre (and aussies like that 😉 )

  6. Anyway I must be of I’ve just printed the NSW National Party Federal Redistribution submission and The LNP one for Queensland so i’ll go and mull over them know and think of where that magical comeback will come from.

  7. In 1993 the Liberal nominated Bruce Francis, a long forgotten Australian test opener from 1972 who was better known for trying to organise rebel cricket tours of South Africa in the 1970s after the implementation of bans. He was very little known in the electorate but polled 21.1% to Larry Anthony’s 25.7%. The Nationals were shocked because (a) they didn’t win it back from labor, and (b) because an unkown Liberal nearly outpolled and Anthony. Relkations were bad between the two parties in 1993. The Liberals came within half a dozen votes of winning Lyne at that election and there were three cornered contests in a string of seats.

    In 1996 Anthony polled 35.4% to another unknown Liberal 18.4%. Remember, the Nationals have won seats back off Labor since 1983, but have yet to win one back off the Liberals.

  9. Juliem, an election held before the new boundaries were in place would see the two adjacent NSW electorates with the lowest total enrolment amalagmated. On current numbers that would be Lowe and Sydney. In Queensland, the two adjacent electorates with highest total enrolment would be split in three. By the end of this year that would be somnewhere in the Gold Coast. Another reason why I don’t think we’ll see an election this year.

  10. The reason that the Greens voted against the nuclear referendum bill in Victoria was that Labor would not accept the Greens amendment to have the question decided by parliament rather than than a future Liberal or pro-nuclear Labor cabinet decision.

  11. Speaking of the Liberals coming third in Richmond. The Victorian state seat of Richmond. It may well change hands in November next year.

  12. I was about to say what AG just said – once the Nats lose seats to the Libs, they almost never get them back. They did win Farrer off the Libs in 1984 but they lost it again when Fischer retired.

  13. [Holding State Electoral Offices within Federal Divisions is of great assistance in winning such Federal Divisions. National Party state electoral offices are rich in Cowper, Page and Richmond afterall its only common sense but then common sense isn’t common to all.]

    Be that as it may, people often vote differently in state and federal elections, with Page and Richmond testament to that. I imagine the Libs could have a shot at Tweed too.

  15. I’m delighted with the Galaxy Poll. If it is seen as negative for Rudd then for Turnbull and the Libs it is an absolute shocker. Still not a fan of the poll itself though but that’s another story.

  18. The Nationals won Farrar in 1984 because Wagga Wagga was moved into Hume so Wal Fife switched seats. The Nationals only won Hume in 1993 because Wal Fife stood aside to avoid running against John Sharpe’s after Sharpe’s seat of Gilmore had been moved into the South Coast. The Liberals still ran but John Hewson had to announce he would not campaign for the Liberal candidate in either Hume or Riverina. The man behind all the NSW three-cornered contests in 1993 was the Liberal Party’s Rural Vice President and Liberal candidate for Riverina, Bill Heffernan.

  19. [On the Gallaxy poll, Skynews concentrated on Rudd being found to be a strong leader but that he has a nasty streak if thwarted 😉 and they also try to make a big point that 17% would be less likely to vote Labor if there were an early election.]

    And they have the rat known as Michael Costa on there again spewing diatribe. It seems Sky News love him. I bet they’d have done the same with Billy Hughes if they had the chance.

  20. [and they also try to make a big point that 17% would be less likely to vote Labor if there were an early election.]
    Wasn’t it also 12% MORE likely?

  26. [The Galaxy poll? Labor 43, Coalition 40, Greens 11, Others 6]

    Wow, the exact same as the poll done 6 months ago…

  29. I don’t think Rudd wants an early election, but if he does the fate of John Murphy, or even the loss of a seat in NSW overall, will not deter him.

  30. [Equalling a net 5% less likely in that case.]
    Correct and if we really want to get pedantic, how many of those would actually follow through with it. These poll questions really are meaningless.

  33. Antony,

    [
    By the end of this year that would be somnewhere in the Gold Coast. Another reason why I don’t think we’ll see an election this year.
    ]

    Do you honestly think that this will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? i.e if Rudd were otherwise going to go to a DD that this would stop him? I don’t know, just wondering if this is a big enough drawback.

  34. The Nats in Wannon? Last state election they had to pay people to hand out cards for their SW Coast candidate. Their new young Leg Council candidate fought it out with FF and the DLP for the fringe right and she then joined the Libs to run for Ballarat. The Vic Nats have done OK pushing this one-track country first theme but it has reached its limit.

  35. It’s almost certain that the redistribution will in any case cost Labor a seat in NSW while creating a marginal in Qld. It therefore won’t make much difference whether the election is before or after the completion of the redistributions. If Rudd decides to go for a DD (asuming Turnbull is silly enough to give him one, which I doubt), that factor will not deter him.

  36. I don’t think there will be a double dissolution. The government wants its legislation passed and the talk of double dissolution, talk of negotiating passage with the Greens, is about ramping up presure on the business community and Liberal Party to pass the bill, under threat of being forced to a DD they would lose, with the potential for a more radical bill being passed once the government has to negotiate with the Greens.

    Complex Legislation is not drafted to get through the legal hoops of a DD. If this bill causes a DD, I bet it gets passed as normal legislation with amendemt from the Liberals after the election rather than ever get to a Joint Sitting.

  37. Remember the Australia Card. This bill requires regulation. If the government still got no co-operation on passage after a DD and was forced to a Joint Sitting and the Liberals still voted no, then the Coalition and Greens could still disallow the regulations in the Senate and prevent the bill being implmented. That’s the legal point that caused the Hawke government had to ditch the Australia Card bill, though it was releived it had found a reason. I very much doubt the Liberals would ever continue the battle on an ETS this far. But it is why, even after a DD, the government is still likely to try and bring the Liberal Party on board.

  38. It now increasingly like Turnbull is going to go for a Lab-Lib agreement on the CPRS, cutting out both the Nats and the Greens, and saving himself from a DD that would terminate his career. I’m not certain whether Rudd will oblige him – it depends on what Turnbull’s price will be.

  40. Exactly, I agree entirely Adam. Why not do the deal now rather than get flogged at an election and have to do it anyway afterwards.

  42. [If this bill causes a DD, I bet it gets passed as normal legislation with amendemt from the Liberals after the election rather than ever get to a Joint Sitting.]
    NO! I want to attend a joint sitting before I die!
    [It now increasingly like Turnbull is going to go for a Lab-Lib agreement on the CPRS, cutting out both the Nats and the Greens,]
    I think there are some Libs who, just like the Nats, won’t vote for any ETS (e.g. Dennis Jensen). That means any move by Turnbull to support an ETS before an election will just show how divided the Liberals are on the issue.

  43. [Exactly, I agree entirely Adam. Why not do the deal now rather than get flogged at an election and have to do it anyway afterwards.]
    If you think the Liberals will be flogged over the issue, then shouldn’t that encourage Rudd to go to a D.D. election on that issue?

  44. [If you think the Liberals will be flogged over the issue, then shouldn’t that encourage Rudd to go to a D.D. election on that issue?]
    I could be wrong but I think the argument is that the Libs won’t give Rudd the trigger.

  45. If the ALP wanted to get the ETS through without the Senate being able to block the necessary regulations then couldn`t the ALP just include a section saying that the regulations made it the next year (or three) under this act are not subject to veto by the Senate?

  46. [I could be wrong but I think the argument is that the Libs won’t give Rudd the trigger.]
    I’m hoping that Labor the Nats and the Greens vote to stop the legislation being sent to the Productivity Commission.

    There have been enough reviews on it, it is time for it to be voted on.

  47. No. The Senate has the right to review and disallow any regulation in legislation. It can’t alter regulations but it can disallow them. And without regulations, legislation is ineffective.

  48. Clarify that. Regulations are powers delegated to a Minister or relevant official by legislation. But all regulations issued under legislation must be tabled in both houses and either house may disallow a regulation. They can’t alter the regulations but they can disallow. It’s a power rarely used. Under the Scullin government, there was a period when it issued land transport regulations and the Senate cancelled them, and I think it happened several times. It was the power the Senate could have used to nullify the introduction of the Australia card be repealing any attempt to regulate a start date for its use.

  49. What is to stop a piece of legislation being saying that regulations under it are not subject to Senate veto?

  50. [If the ALP wanted to get the ETS through without the Senate being able to block the necessary regulations then couldn`t the ALP just include a section saying that the regulations made it the next year (or three) under this act are not subject to veto by the Senate?]

    Why in the world would the Senate agree to such a provision? Indeed why should it?

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