Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4

Reuters Poll Trend is back in business, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn’t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor’s two-party lead at 56.6-43.4, down from 57.3-42.7 previously.

Couple of legal matters to attend to:

• A legal challenge is proceeding against Labor’s 74-vote win in the seat of Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. The LNP cites incidents of double voting and a strong overall result for Labor on absent votes as evidence of fraud. I’ve got a hat waiting to be eaten if the challenge is upheld.

• Gary Clark, husband of the former Lindsay MP Jackie Kelly, has been given the maximum fine of $1100 and ordered to pay more than $2000 in costs for his role in the distribution of fake pamphlets purporting to be from the “Islamic Australia Federation” in the week before the federal election. The ABC reports Magistrate Geoff Bradd aptly observing it was “difficult to think of a worst case of breaching the electoral act”, for which the penalties would seem to need strengthening.

• Note posts below on the latest state Newspoll results for Western Australia and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

423 comments on “Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4”

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  1. [Fortunately, that is not the argument we are having. You no doubt saw that Mrs D agreed with you on that. ]

    Diog, i realise you are not arguing about that. But it does not alter the fact that your fellow doktors are the biggest rif-off merchants of public money.

    The politicians are amateurs compared with your fellow doktors. so stop picking on them.

  2. Back after hackist dinner…

    Most of what priests get caught for is not paedophilia anyway, it is having sex with teenagers. Paedophilia, properly defined, is a sexual attraction to pre-pubertal children, and is quite rare. Sexual attraction to teenagers, however, is very common, and is mostly what gets people like teachers and priests into trouble.

  3. [In Ireland they had a nine year investigation, here we got a nine second mea culpa, but think of all the good they have done.]
    Hmm
    seems the wheels are slowly turning here as well
    [In response to the report, victims of abuse by members of the clergy here in Australia have renewed their calls for a royal commission into the matter to be set up here.

    Dr Wayne Chamley, a spokesman for the Broken Rites group, says previous Senate inquiries into the treatment of children in care do not go far enough.

    “The problem with Senate inquiries is that they don’t have powers of subpoena or powers to put witnesses under oath so many people won’t come forward. They don’t feel they have the right protections,” he said.

    The Australian Catholic Church says while it is ashamed at the findings from Ireland, there is no need for such a commission.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/21/2577458.htm?section=justin

  5. Profile of courage.

    [MS AUNG San Suu Kyi expressed her wish for national reconciliation during her meeting with foreign ambassadors, including Singaporean envoy Robert Chua, yesterday, Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said.

    Mr Chua, who is Singapore’s Ambassador to Myanmar as well as Dean of the Diplomatic Corps, had been invited by Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry to meet Ms Suu Kyi after the adjournment of her trial, MFA said in a statement. ]

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/SE%2BAsia/Story/STIStory_379789.html

    Ms. Suu Kyi was still looking good and dignify, even after 13 years of detention. She puts most of the politicians into shame. She could do with a little bit more nepotism by having her family with her.

  6. Agree Finns – has anyone said definitely who the bloke was who swam to her house. Last I heard he was a mentally ill Vietnam vet or was that just paper talk.

  7. Psephos

    That NYT article makes exactly that point. The terminology is interesting. It seems that ‘paedophilia’ is the term for the rare predatory sicko who abuses prepubertal children. The term “pederast” is used for the attraction to post-pubertal children but is now only used in a homosexual context. The best term for attraction to adolescent but underage children is “ephebophilia”.

    Another interesting point in that argument is that a higher than normal number of Catholic priests are homosexual which is a bit of a silent issue. I suspect it’s like the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy in the US Army.

  10. BH – FYI

    [The fool and The Lady of the lake – She is an imprisoned opposition Nobel Prize winner and the hope of a nation. He is a Morman from Missouri on some quixotic spiritual mission. When he swam ashore at her guarded home last week in Yangon, their fates were bound together forever. Now pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Vietnam vet John Yettaw are in prison and the future of Myanmar may be on the line. ]

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KE16Ae02.html

  11. Anyone else noticed that the ‘nodding goon behind the ministerial talking head syndrome’ in TV interviews has re-appeared? Nicola Roxon had some poor sap stationed behind her last night obviously standing on a gaffer-tape cross on the floor looking ludicrously intent and interested. He was like one of those nodding dogs on the back shelf of a car.

    I suppose this is some media consultant’s magic formula to ‘reinforce the message’, but how long can they keep it up before people throw a shoe through the screen? In my case it won’t be much longer. It wouldn’t be so bad if the ministers were saying something worth reinforcing. .. Yes it would.

  12. Well Gus – Ifeel a bit sick reading that comment. I watched Insight last Tues pm re refugees. Absolutely heartrending and made all the more miserable by the woeful Kevin Andrews and Sharmian Stone.

    So I can’t bring myself to open that link because I might put my computer at risk.

  13. [Collier’s primary conclusion: democracy, in the superficial, election-focused form that tends to prevail in these countries, “has increased political violence instead of reducing it.” Without rules, traditions, and checks and balances to protect minorities, distribute resources fairly and subject officials to the law, these governments lack the accountability and legitimacy to discourage rebellion. The quest for power becomes a “life-and-death struggle” in which “the contestants are driven to extremes.”]

    GG, yes, there is a very very fine line between “democracy” and “democrazy”. there is only one letter in it.

  14. [British Labour, presumably seeking a diversion, is talking about sweeping electoral reform.]

    Anything to avoid a sweeping electoral defeat I guess.

  15. I dont think that is possible now Grog.

    David Cameron will be the PM of Britain next year, id almost put it in the id eat my hat category.

    Also brighter news for Conservatives is that Angela Merkel is a monty to win another term this September.

  17. [I feel obliged to point out that paedophilia is LESS common amongst Catholic priests than it is in the general population. There’s a selection bias, in that when a priest gets caught it’s big news and everyone remembers the occupation but when a plumber (for eg) does, it doesn’t get reported and if it was the occupation is never remembered.]
    Fair enough, but on the other hand, people like priests, teachers, police officers or government representatives have greater authority, because they are in positions of power and thus have a higher duty of care. So it is entirely appropriate that the media holds people in such positions of power to extremely high standards.
    [Most of what priests get caught for is not paedophilia anyway, it is having sex with teenagers. Paedophilia, properly defined, is a sexual attraction to pre-pubertal children, and is quite rare.]
    Sure, but the story I referred to was about a priest who abused an 11 year old boy, then said it court that it was an “anatomy lesson”. I don’t understand why when they are caught they don’t just be honest and plead guilty.
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25517914-29277,00.html

    Great footage of Malcolm Turnbull on ABC News being told to leave a shopping centre because he didn’t have approval to go schmoozing.

  18. [The Federal Opposition says the Government should offer temporary protection visas to Sri Lankan Tamils affected by the civil war in their country.]
    [The Government tells Opposition that Temporary Protection Visas no longer exist, reminds them that it is now 2009.]

  20. Shows On,

    Turnbull apparently wanted to ask them how confident they were about spending money in this economic climate.

  21. [Anything to avoid a sweeping electoral defeat I guess.]
    Certainly it is a diversion, but if this rorting results in the U.K. finally having an elected upper house, then all that stolen taxes would’ve served a useful public service.

  22. [I dont think that is possible now Grog.]

    You’re right there Glen. Is should have said Anything to try to avoid a sweeping electoral defeat. Or at least looking like you’re trying to avoid a sweeping electroal defeat. Because of course there would be those in the party who don’t think Brown is even looking like he’s trying to look like he is trying to try and avoid sweeping electroal defeat. 🙂

  23. [Turnbull apparently wanted to ask them how confident they were about spending money in this economic climate.]
    Yeah, he was there to remind them that we are in a recession, so they should have no need to be in a shopping centre. 😀

    Alan Kohler had some interesting graphs showing that the Chinese have completely cut steel production, but their iron ore exports are sky rocketing.

  24. [British Labour, presumably seeking a diversion, is talking about sweeping electoral reform.]

    Reform the lower house hey? They should bring in preferential voting so all those Lib Dem votes aren’t wasted in seats they don’t win. That’ll take a few seats away from the conservatives!

  25. SO

    I agree that teachers, doctors, priests, cops etc should be held to a higher standard of conduct because of the abuse of trust issues. It’s important that this behaviour is highlighted by the media when one of those does it. I just didn’t want everyone to think the Church is full of paedophiles.

    ruawake

    One thing that was stressed to us when we became doctors was that a really good way to become popular was to send home a haematology patient with a sore throat without calling their consultant. You would get to meet the coroner, the head of the hospital, your medical defense lawyer, the Medical Board and the haematologist you didn’t call, who would be the scariest of the lot.

  27. [when they are caught they don’t just be honest and plead guilty.]

    Which is part of the reason supporters argue that the clergy loving kiddies is in the same proportion as the general population.

    Many do not admit, are not caught, or the kiddies are paid off with a keep quite clause in the settlement.

    Go onto some of the sites relating to the clergy in the USA and the figures are around 10%, which is way higher than the general population.

    One would hope, given the findings in other countries that we would do more than brush it aside here.

    But I don’t think the gutless one is up to it.

  29. Showson – did you mean iron ore imports are exploding – does that mean they are getting it from us.

    Just watched Clarke & Dawe on 7.30 Report – hilarious takeoff on Hockey doing his “I sincerely and honestly hope they are right but ……” it was classic buffoonery.

  30. castle,

    All rigidly controlled polls with proper sampling methodology?

    Making wild unsubstantiated allegations here are we?

    Anything new to add to the discussion or just a rehash of your personal prejudices?

  31. [Great footage of Malcolm Turnbull on ABC News being told to leave a shopping centre because he didn’t have approval to go schmoozing.]

    Not just any old shopping centre – the Karrinyup Shopping Centre, where I spent my youth as a mall rat (as they say in the States).

  32. Wow, has this site gone feral, or what! As someone who rarely posts, I am not as emotionally invested as some here appear to be. What’s happened to tolerance and respect for one another’s views. Sure, disagree by all means but it seems to me that the personal attacks have increased in ferocity and that reasoned debate and logic has diminished a tad.

    I realised that when I entered the murky world of a political blog (much like politics in the real world) there would be a bit of argy bargy but please could it be reined in a bit. I want to be informed about the political issues facing this country and the world. I wanted a blog which represented diverse views and allowed such diverse views to be expressed and debated in a civil manner. Being passionate about defending one’s position in a discussion is completely understandable, being disrespectful towards each other’s views is not.

  33. Obama protects the US from home-grown terrorists.

    [The FBI arrested four men Wednesday in what authorities called a plot to detonate a bomb outside a Jewish temple and to shoot military planes with guided missiles.

    Officials told The Associated Press the arrests came after a long-running undercover operation that began in Newburgh, N.Y., about 70 miles north of New York City.

    James Cromitie, David Williams, Onta Williams and Laguerre Payen, all of Newburgh, were charged with conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction within the United States and conspiracy to acquire and use anti-aircraft missiles, the U.S. attorney’s office said.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/20/new-york-city-temple-bomb_n_206140.html

  34. [Showson – did you mean iron ore imports are exploding – does that mean they are getting it from us.]
    Yeah, Kohler put up this chart:

    It is very strange, they are buying all this iron ore that they currently aren’t converting to steel!

    My understanding was that the new contracts don’t start until July, so that means they are buying iron ore at the last year price, when if they waited a few months they could get it for nearly half price.

    Maybe they are pretending that they have bought a whole heap to keep the mining companies excited about how big their next lot of orders will be, sot hey won’t be so sad that the price has nearly halved?

  36. Pegasus

    We’re just in training for the real Showdown when Hillary becomes the first SOS to run against the sitting President for Democrat preselection. That’s when it’ll get interesting.

    If you could survive the US elections here, you could survive anything. Sadly, we lost quite a few good men and women in that campaign.

  38. Thanks Showson – perhaps it’s to help sway Swannie’s decision re Chinalco but I have my fingers crossed that they intend to start ramping up the production line.

    Fancy William being a mall rat – wonder what his Mum said altho she doesn’t seem to have anything to complain about now. My kids hated it when I caught them at the mall – what an embarrassment.

  39. Diog, dont rejoice too soon. Obama Admin ( and Hillary, shame on her) is up to no good. It’s the Great Satan up to its old trick again.

    [A neo-con Yankee in Karzai’s court – The neo-conservatives have all but been vanquished. But the Barack Obama administration in the United States is making a solitary exception in the case of Zalmay Khalilzad. He is back on the Washington circuit, repeating an amazing trapeze act which has few parallels in the chronicles of political opportunism.

    Now he is reportedly negotiating his way back to his old hunting ground in Kabul. The New York Times newspaper’s ace Washington correspondent has broken the story quoting senior American and Afghan officials that Zal could assume a “powerful, unelected position inside the Afghan government”. Such a position, a senior US administration official has been quoted as saying, involves Zal serving as “a prime minister, except not prime minister because he wouldn’t be responsible to a parliamentary system”.

    For, the real catch is that Zal will be an extra-constitutional authority, not accountable to the Afghan constitution or parliament or people or, arguably, even to Karzai himself. Karzai would apprehend that ultimately, Zal is Zal and from the time he hit the ground, he would be sprinting and it would be impossible to match his stamina for outpacing his peer group.

    To be sure, Zal will report only to Washington. All the same, Clinton, too, needs to be watchful. To quote Cooper, “While he was working for the Bush administration, Khalilzad often brushed up against other officials, including secretary of state Condoleezza Rice.” Now, that’s formidable dexterity – to bypass Condi and deal directly with Bush. ]

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KE21Df04.html

  41. Grog 122
    Sir Humpy Appleby would be proud of that post 😉

    Dio i hate to think of the candidate the Republicans nominate for 2012.
    I wont support them unless they pick Pawlenty the rest are no hopers and bible bashers.

  42. [Sir Humpy Appleby would be proud of that post ;)]
    Glen, you should know by now that this isn’t a forum to discuss your porn collection.

  43. [If you could survive the US elections here, you could survive anything. Sadly, we lost quite a few good men and women in that campaign.]

    Miss the war do we Field Marshall Diogenes ??

  44. Only 3.5 years and we can start it again Gus – hope Juliem will still have her contacts in the US then. It made for interesting stuff.

  45. [Only 3.5 years and we can start it again Gus – hope Juliem will still have her contacts in the US then. It made for interesting stuff.]

    “It was the best of times and the worst of times”

    I reckon Condi will throw her hat in, doubt they will go for a Palin type

    Whether hilary would want to go around is a nother matter altogether

  47. Glen

    Weaver agrees with you (and so do I). Huntsman looked like a good bet. Whether it was Obama or Hillary who chose him, they’ve really hurt the Repugs. Cheney seems to have taken over from Limbaugh and Joe the Plumber as the Leader of the Republican Party.

    [ “If it’s 2012 and our party is defined by Palin and Limbaugh and Cheney, then we’re headed for a blowout,” says strategist John Weaver, who advised Huntsman and was for years a close adviser to Sen. John McCain. “That’s just the truth.”

    Until last week, Weaver was preparing for Utah Gov. John Huntsman’s possible presidential run. Huntsman, who just accepted President Obama’s invitation to become Ambassador to China, is a favorite of GOP moderates. ]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/18/john-weaver-gop-headed-fo_n_204695.html

  48. Diogenes
    [If you could survive the US elections here, you could survive anything. Sadly, we lost quite a few good men and women in that campaign.]
    Don’t mention the war – my twitch is coming back:

    Major: Bunch of Krauts, that’s what they are, all of ’em. Bad eggs!

    Basil: Yes well, forgive and forget, Major… God knows how, the bastards!

  49. Daily Alpha Fandango Search Engine Report:

    Query: Nepotism

    [nepotism (English word)
    Definition: Noun:
    nepotism | favoritism shown to relatives or close friends by those in power (as by giving them jobs)

    Word origins: French | Italian | Classical Latin\n(first recorded use: 1662 (347 years ago))]

    So they have been arguing about it for 347 years.

  50. Fox News promoting book being written by Sarah Palin ready for release before next race starts. They say she will be a big contender – Greta whatsername is pushing it.
    Fun ahead.

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