Newspoll: 59-41

The first federal Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 59-41. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister has widened from 60 per cent to 64 per cent, having gone 73-7 to 70-10 to 73-9 over the past there surveys.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

494 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. Be prepared for another Opposition Orifice “issue” to be revealed on Thursday, targetting a minority group that would appeal to the average Aussie.

    I predict something along the lines of first home buyers myself, and/or something related to Medicare payments.

  4. [Watch for an intensification of the spite and hate from Liberal supporters on the blogs this week.]

    It’s already started on Perth Now over the announcement that Ch 7 Perth Political Reporter Reece Whitby seeking ALP Pre-Selection for the State Seat of Morley.

  6. The problem for the opposition and their media mates is that nothing is working. If Rudd comes up with results in the main areas of concern (health, education etc.) they can prove Rudd is the anti christ himself and he would still win the next election.

  7. [While the one percentage point fall is statistically insignificant, Dr Nelson’s preferred prime minister support is back to where it was in mid-February, when he recorded a 9 per cent rating.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23503731-601,00.html

    So what is wrong with at least holding consistent PPM ratings. Any fluctuation has been reasonably consistent with the MOR but unfortunately, I would assume the Coalition supporters and Members may have been expecting a slightly better performance by the good Dr.

    I hope they don’t get their hopes up too high because it is apparent Brendan has his sights on setting new records of irrelevance to the Australian political system.

  9. Well I am surprised. Either Rudd walks on water or the LNP swim in sewerage. No gravity here.

    From Burkegate to Salutegate not a lesson has been learned by the Liberals or the Liberal Party newspapers. Lying, sniping, misinformation and dishonesty seem to be the only weapons in their arsenal. The Howard govt legacy.

    Without some ethnic group to demonise, fear to peddle, smears to imply, refugees to abuse or wars to crusade they are have only their own abilities and record to rely on. But they don’t even bother with that and instead run a coordinated program of nitpicking and invention with some newspapers.

    They are trying to win points off Rudd rather than be a genuine opposition party. But I guess the problem is they can’t be an opposition as they are divided in themselves and cant develop a position to run.

    Sad to see Bob Brown feel so desperate for air that he joined the salute criticism. I would have thought he would have been planning a great surge of the Green to take advantage of a ailing LNP.

  10. Hehehehe I said on several OO etc blogs, no point venting spite & bile here, you need to get behind the Fibs & do some real work on policy, building party numbers, getting rid of the extreme right. Never so happy to have my advice ignored!

  13. Watching Kev and Therese (wearing her plain red coat) walking along holding hands and smiling with the snow falling on their bare heads and Kev waving his hand around as if to catch snowflakes while they made their way to church yesterday was like looking into an old English painting that could have been titled “Winter wonderland for Lovers”
    Any wonder Australians have genuine affection for this lovely down to earth couple.

  14. If Liberal supporters continue to try and convince the rest of the population that the following quote is the current reality, then these poll figures are going to persist for a long time. We are not that stupid.

    [In my opinion, the only reason you might feel that Mr Rudd is a centre/ left politician, is simply because that’s exactly how he wants the media and world leaders to see him as. But underneath the facade, there lurks another Mark Latham, mixed with a bit of Paul Keating, and the incompetence of Gough Whitlam, a wolf in sheep’s clothing so to speak, and one who is dominated by the Unions, but will hide that fact as much as he can. All in all, that makes for a very, very dangerous man. One who, gladly, doesn’t fool this Aussie one little bit, never has and never will. Those who live in Queensland, know the real Rudd, and he hasn’t changed his spots one bit.
    Remember his loud criticisms of the President of the US and John Howard’s close relationship, when he wasn’t even leader of the Opposition and that criticism didn’t change once he progressed up the scale. In fact, I remember his taunts at APEC, when he and the media tried to play down the importance of the summit and the successful outcome that was achieved. He has spent most of his 17 day trip spouting venom about John Howard’s Government and trying to turn other world leaders against the former Government. A nasty, cunning piece of works, in my opinion, definitely not a Statesman or a leader. ]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pms_salute_much_ado_about_nothing/P125/

  15. “He has spent most of his 17 day trip spouting venom about John Howard’s Government” I saw this earlier, have not seen any reporting of such venom from Rudd. What will they be like in 3 or 6 years time? Mentally diseased from hate hate hate?

  17. Crikey, I think Therese is fantastic she always seems so cheerful and approachable. She seems like she would give really great hugs.

  18. Crikey, funny, that. My feelings when I saw it was that it that it reminded me of a traditional Christmas card scene. I too thought it was lovely.

  23. “The poll, taken at the weekend exclusively for The Australian, shows the Coalition has failed to peg back Labor’s dominance despite Dr Nelson’s political win in forcing the Prime Minister to announce a June visit to Japan after the Opposition accused the Government of neglecting a key strategic ally.”

    What political win?? Kevin Rudd isn’t going to Japan on his current tour.

    Not only that, it was the biggest non-issue since salutegate

  24. Vera, I have not seen these images. Though I have seen Kevin and Therese walking along in other venues. Natural and uncontrived. Unlike the stage settings of the last decade. Far more pleasant.

  25. [Surprised at you, Scorpio. ]

    What? For reading the comments on JA’s blog.

    Come on. I need some entertainment while I am waiting for comments to come up on PB.

  26. Vera, I mean, really… puke , herk, chunder…

    Sorry, just too much saccharin for even the truest of believers to swallow!

  27. Damn you Frank. Just when I was ready to head to bed too.

    I can’t wait till morning so I may as well check out Shamma’s latest rant now.

  28. On Tomorrows News, I may not have heard correctly, a person called Ingham or something like, is favoured in Gippsland as the candidate.

  29. Fulvio I hope you had a paper bag for all that chundering! Otherwise William is going to need to find a mop a bucket to clean up your mess!

  30. Fulvio! I cannot speak for Vera, but I love, they, more importantly, love a bit of yep puke etc. Saccharine especially.

  33. [The Liberals’ dilemma is still whether they leave Nelson in place to continue to take the hits, or they move against him for fear it is his performance, and not Rudd’s, which is doing the Liberal Party such irreparable harm.]

    If he takes too many more hits, he will end up like HMAS Sydney and sink to the bottom.

    [Rudd’s strength has been his grasp on foreign affairs and his world trip has sent his stocks back up, while Nelson’s attempts to suggest he was behaving in an unbecoming way have failed, perhaps even backfired.]

    They are very slow learners, these Libs.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/poll_puts_brendan_back_on_brink/

  34. Oh, such a happy bunch!

    Heard the whisper out there…obviously not.

    Boy, the higher you fly, the harder you crash…let’s see the rant by the beagle of sea gull.

    Maybe he is camped out in Solomon street to get his latest scoop???

    After all, he needs a free mantle goose and gander MR protector???

  35. I would not presume, Vera, on Fulvio’s cultural origins, but Fulvio does possess a rather glamorous name. Far more glam than mine.

    Making wild assumptions, I ascribe a certain je ne sais quoi.

  37. Extract, note especially per Vera at 36.

    ‘Gippsland could easily fall to Labor, particularly if there is a three-cornered fight, and Nationals strategists believe that without some structural agreement inside the Coalition, it will be hard to keep the Liberals out of the contest.

  39. Goodnight all. Its 1.24 am here in Qld and I think I have had enough reading for one day.

    Apologies Crikey and Vera. I tried to find the picture of Kev & Therese in the snow for you but couldn’t find it.

    It was a lovely picture though.

  40. Crikey, this reminds me of a great night of foreign language invective on Bryan Palmer’s site many months ago when someone broke out somewhat rudely in German (I think it was Glen) and was responded to in not so complimentary terms by half a dozen bloggers in several languages.

    Multiculturalism at its best.

  41. Well, Fulvio. Glen, it probably was. He is so inept.

    Got to go now, friends. Goodnight, Scorpio. Having a yuk experience, not me, a friend. Thinking of you. Until the morrow.

  45. In the jargon of statisticians the polls on Nelson’s PPM indicate a stable system that says that he is on the nose. Not a good poll, not a bad poll, just another poll. The next one will predictably lie between two calculatable values.

  47. I don’t think it’s so much that Nelson’s ‘on the nose’ (although I’m sure there is a percentage of people who dislike him) but rather than people don’t know who he is and don’t care to know who he is.

    He really just was the wrong choice and if completely ineffective as a leader of a party. A leaders needs to be more careful in choosing what to comment on and criticise otherwise they just sound opportunistic and petty. Also, perhaps someone with a smidgen of passion and charisma… we already have one dull and robotic person leading a major party, we don’t need two.

  49. When the good doctor appears on television looking ever so serious I see in my mind’s eye an undertaker who thinks he’s speaking to distraught members of the deceased’s family. The trouble for him is that the vast majority of viewers are far from distraught – most are overjoyed that the old bastard has gone. How apt that the Liberals elect a leader who is slowly but effectively digging a hole, deeper every day, in which to bury the party.

  50. Nelson seems to be unable to rein in his shadow ministers and backbenchers. They spout off on any subject, any time. They freely (Turnbull) talk about leadership aspirations. The leak stories detrimental to Nelson to the press. They make speeches (Bishop) in support of Work choices when their leader has declared it “dead”. Worse than all this, his members’ defence of him is very tame. They are not prepared to go into bat for Nelson or his leadership, other than to mouth platitudes. Nelson’s strategy for dealing with this policy anarchy is to agree with everyone.

    Hence, it is clear that Nelson has little respect and little authority in the party he is supposed to lead.

    He can only blame himself. His checkered career of political allegience – now Labor, now Liberal, now never-Labor, now never-Liberal (all uttered with total conviction… at the time) – his technique of making friends within the party by agreeing with whomever he is speaking with at any moment (until he agrees with the opposite position a moment later in another conversation) may have got him the votes, but they have also lost him any chance at the authority he needs to make the best of his leadership. Nobody owes him anything, but he owes everybody everything. And he can’t deliver.

    If Turnbull is installed, I doubt whether he’ll do much better. Maybe five or ten points, but not much else. There’s this myth going around that Turnbull is the more natural leader of the party. I think that is poppycock. Turnbull is guaranteed to screw up. He’ll throw a tantrum, he’ll try to be too “tough”. He’ll make some cringe-inducing malapropism which will remind everyone he’s a politician who has bought his way into power. That image will then stick forever. Turnbull is no politician.

    Who else is there? Last year when I wrote that if Howard went there was no-one who could take over turned out to be the view of the party as well. Hence the failed Intercontinental putsch. There was no-one to replace him. There is similarly no-one to replace Nelson, with the added sting that while Howard at least had cojones, Nelson certainly doesn’t.

    Nelson is a Labor man hiding in a Liberal skin. He couldn’t make it with Labor, so he switched sides opportunistically. What chance could he possibly have with the Libs? An ersatz conservative braying on about his six guitars to prove his cruiseyness. Gimme a break, Brendan. while he’s out in Voterland “listening”, the voters are listening to the noise and the din from within the Liberal Party. It’s completely drowning out anything that Nelson could say on his Magical Mystery Tour, even if he ramped up his guitars to “11” on the knob and played Stairway To Heaven.

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