Morgan: Rudd 77, Nelson 9

Roy Morgan, which normally goes easy on “beauty contest” questions, has today entered the fray with a phone poll of 527 respondents. It gives Brendan Nelson the same 9 per cent preferred prime minister rating he suffered from Newspoll, with Kevin Rudd on 77 per cent compared with Newspoll’s 70 per cent. That’s not the worst of it though: on the question of preferred Liberal leader, Nelson can only manage equal fourth place behind Malcolm Turnbull (24 per cent), Peter Costello (18 per cent) and Joe Hockey (13 per cent). Nelson and Alexander Downer are both on 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd is favoured as Labor leader by 66 per cent over 15 per cent for Julia Gillard; in the absence of Rudd, 50 per cent would favour Gillard over 8 per cent for Wayne Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

474 comments on “Morgan: Rudd 77, Nelson 9”

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  1. steve,
    Interesting interview, that.
    It all underlines the Opposition’s insanity last Friday: to the extent they had a point it was a pretty subtle one.
    Plenty of people are going to assume (rightly or wrongly) that the real objection is to “working on Fridays”.
    I’m sure most politicians of all stripes work hard (lower House ones, anyway), but the Liberals have monumentally c*cked up any message they may have been trying to get across.

  3. Hi Scorpio

    That is useful, though I did mean the younger in my family. That would be John, Richard known as Dick, Mignon known as Sally, Jerome known to his annoyance as Jerry, Mary, Tim, Damien. Sadly, Dick, Mary and Tim, my younger siblings, have died.

    I will explore, though a meet at the pub would be simpler.

    As to Keelty, whom I deplore for his demeaning subjugation to Howard and his most recent failure to ‘keep up’ ( I am at risk here of Fulvio’s condemnation on the arrangement of my words) what I reckon is that Mick had it right until the point when he folded to Howard, then as his so recent utterance demonstrates, lives in a past which the election has put behind us.

    He seemed to be an okay guy, but forced to shake a hand, anyone who had to do so in the Howard climate must be in need of therapy, at least.

  6. Incidentally, nor has the Leader of Government Business been asked any questions in parliament about Friday sittings despite the crocodile tears and tantrums we saw from the Opposition on Friday.

  7. Steve at 406

    ‘nor has the Leader of Government Business been asked any questions in parliament’

    At all, really. About anything of any use.

    Let’s not be unkind, I think they may be real tears, but I suspect flow from a source other than Fridays. Think Saturday, 24 November 2007.

  10. Dyno, you think the Opposition have Rudd on the ropes. Nothing could be further from reality. He is not in the slightest danger or even particular discomfort. This bloviating about no QT on Fridays is a simply because the Opposition think they have scored a few cheap points on government members in QT in the past couple of weeks. Even if they have they are cheap, and few. There are three long years of irrelevance to go before the public gets another chance to reduce Coalition numbers.

    And please, no sermons about “accountability”. Really, after Howard had corrupted the parliament in the way he did with his own version of “accountability”, anything would be an improvement.

    If someone comes here and whinges, what are we to think? We only have the evidence in front of us to go on.

  11. The Coalitions Friday effort would have only helped create perceptions or at least solidify them. They played the game like sore losers or spoilt brats on the side-lines and thats the subconscious image that will form in peoples minds. Losers acting like losers.

    I note The Australian running a story damaging to the Howard Costello ecnomic myth.

    BUSINESS has demanded a three-year freeze in federal spending and attacked the Howard government’s failure to invest the proceeds of the resources boom in the nation’s future productivity.
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23269415-601,00.html

  12. Dyno, as to Bushfire Bills at 410.

    BB posed the question or rather, made the statement:

    ‘Dyno, you think the Opposition have Rudd on the ropes’.

    What ropes, Dyno? What match, even?

    I don’t interest myself in or even understand boxing, but I would presume that the person who carries 70% of the weight is more likely to win over an opponent weighing 9%.

    And, despite the rowdy crowd supporting the light weight, all the cheers will not
    succeed in a win.

    The lighter weight needs to build up, get smarter, stronger.

    It takes time. Determination. Tactics. Nouse.

    Even then, he has to maintain his position against those who are fighting for his place in the ring.

    A particularly difficult position to be in. Defending on all fronts.

    Now and for the forseeable future, there is no match.

    Just a lot of rabble rousers, half heartedly barracking for the the light weight.

    But mostly, barracking for themselves. Not that they are in the ring.

  13. Kina, it is interesting to read of the business community releasing itself from the self imposed bondage of the Howard years.

    Shocking, to me, that they were so informed, yet so self interested.

    Locked themselves in. Forgot community interest. Forgot to tell the then PM so.

    Heather Rideout was not a person I held any brief for, yet she gained my respect in her refusal to engage in the invitation to buy into Howard’s bush bash against workers.

    And Ms Rideout clearly took pleasure in saying, I told you so.

  14. Want something to choke on?

    “But other senior Liberals said Mr Howard was blind when it came to WorkChoices, and in the last few months of government would “erupt” if anyone tried to suggest there was still a problem.

    Mr Andrews said some members of cabinet were more determined to push as far as possible on WorkChoices than others.

    “(Senator Nick) Minchin wanted to go further . . . (Peter) Costello wanted to go further, (Tony) Abbott didn’t want to go further,” Mr Andrews said. ”

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23270048-662,00.html

  15. Yep, Kina, as I say.

    Same goes, for all of Howard’s gutless.

    And it far too late, for Kevin Andrews and his ilk. Including the non Ministerial, certain of the business community, others such as Keelty.

    Dare I say that the GG and Samuels, to name only two, seem to be wholeheartedly embracing a new freedom to actually exercise their responsibilities.

  16. Bushfire Bill and Crikey Whitey,
    Never did I say that “the Opposition have Rudd on the ropes”, nor anything remotely resembling it. In fact, I have no idea what comment of mine the two of you are even talking about!
    More than happy to discuss comments I did make.
    (And for the record, I agree with the obvious point everyone else is making – the Opposition made right idiots of themselves last Friday).

  18. [I note The Australian running a story damaging to the Howard Costello ecnomic myth.

    BUSINESS has demanded a three-year freeze in federal spending and attacked the Howard government’s failure to invest the proceeds of the resources boom in the nation’s future productivity.
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23269415-601,00.html%5D

    So why didn’t the B.C.A. criticise the former government!? They were lap dogs slobbering all over Howard and Costello at every opportunity, while criticising Labor on I.R., even though the government’s policy was deeply unpopular.

    Only now that Howard nad Costello are gone do they come out and say things critical of their urinate against a wall approach to public spending.

    The B.C.A. is gutless and shouldn’t be listened to.

  19. Very silly of the BCA to call for spending cuts matching the tax cuts. Never heard them calling for spending cuts to match tax cuts in other years. Nor were they vocal about the ever rising inflation, balance of trade blowout and interest rate rises under the Howard regime. As the drafters of workchoices, it’s a bit rich for them to now change tack and expect to be taken seriously.

  21. So the BCA spent millions trying to reelect the government it knew had, and in all likelihood would continue to blow the surplus instead of spending it on things necessary for economic growth. And it now expects the new government to wear the political odium that will flow from cleaning up the Howard/Costello mess so that in 3 years the BCA can again spend millions to con people into reelecting the clowns with a serial history of spending money like drunken sailors while doing sweet bugger all.

    How remarkable! Though not as remarkable as the BCA apparachik’s ability to keep a straight face while shovelling the bull manure!

  22. Re – 294 – scaper… Says:

    February 23rd, 2008 at 8:11 pm

    “No Jen, he is not up to the speed of any of those guys.

    It is time that the legal team extract the origin of this person…a brave move by the Tom!!!”

    May I request the removal of comments such as this? While I can sympathise with anyone that considers this individual a big noting imbecile, this is in fact the first occasion that I have provided a comment here. Certainly I wouldn’t bother to follow him around the blogs, as he is ignorantly suggesting. I followed links he provided yesterday on “blogocracy”, he has previously suggested this on other occasions. I regard his opinion as a further example of his complete idiocy.

    I note that a related comment on the blogocracy site has been removed.

  26. With due respect to everyone the BCA was always calling for the Howard Government to invest in Skills, Infrasture and Tax reform but it would appear Howard mistook that for the need for Workchoices.

    Quite often the media in this country does not bother to report these things but the BCA was less than positive about Howard except on I.R law

  28. If anyone is in the West, it’s worth watching Australian Story about Nicole Cornes. It turns out she was sexually abused when 5 and the court case was happening during the federal election. The Advertiser asked her about the abuse in an interview and photographed her tearing up and used the photo, saying that she cried under tough political questioning.

    I love journalists. I can work out why they are viewed as less trustworthy than used-car salesmen, I just can’t understand why they are rated better than drug dealers. I’ve met quite a few drug dealers through work and I know which group I’d prefer to spend time with.

  31. I feel sorry for any journalists actually taking their job seriously, because their mates have destroyed any credibility they may have been able to conjure up. they are rapidly approaching the level of ‘parking inspector’ – a barely necessary evil.
    Given the representation we currently have in parliament I’m going to go right out on a limb and say that the common theme is NOT intelligence. Anyone reckon Nicole might give Mayo a go. Even in the event of expected failure it’ll mean she has had two campaigns behind her for Kevin 11?

  32. onimod @ 431,
    Agree. There are decent journalists but the crook ones outshine them a lot of the time.
    The plurality of opinions expressed via the Net can only be a good thing in my view.

  33. I got the impression Nicole Cornes was quite likely to run in the next federal election. She’s working for a union now, so she can be a “union thug” and a “celebrity candidate” at the same time!
    I should add that not all journalists are despicable slimebags there are so many that the whole profession is so tainted that I would only trust one I had personally recommended or preferably knew myself.
    I must say Michael Mansell, the Editor of the Advertiser looked fairly sickened at trying to defend the indefensible.

  34. I had a job for five years where I spoke to the press occasionally – once or twice a year.
    The sheer stress of knowing one’s comments could be twisted (or just plain misquoted), with minimal recourse, was considerable.
    Politicians must be a tough breed – I have a lot more time for them (of any persuasion) than I have for journalists.

  35. Frank Dio,

    Missed most of the Cornes interview but the Australian story shows how low the feral media were prepared to go to see Howard and co re-elected.

    Good on Cornes though, she has real guts and would hope she does run again.

  36. Yesterday, I googled Nicole Cornes. Just to see. The wholly negative is on display.

    I reiterate. Nicole for Boothby. ALP, get on with it. Your time started on 25/11.

    This neglect of an electorate, as I have said, could have been won, is not acceptable.

  37. Frank Calabrese Says: @ 424,

    [Shock Horror, The Poisoned Dwarf has discovered there are Lactating MP’s in the Parliament.]

    Looks as though he will keeping his eyes peeled for the first “lactating father”
    to show up in Parliament House.

    [What happens when the first nursing father and MP puts up their hand for similar treatment? ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23268505-33435,00.html

    If he goes on another one of his famous “benders”, he might start to see them everywhere.

    I have to agree with other commenter’s who have described him as a “grubby little man”.

  38. Just found this on the net but think it must have been in the Sunday Mail yesterday. The journos started circling the wagons yesterday and appear to be miffed they couldn’t find out what was going to be revealed in Australian Story.
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23186682-5012985,00.html?from=mostpop

    And I seriously meant that I would trust a random drug dealer ahead of a random journalist. Drug dealers get bashed up if they don’t deliver what they promised; journalists get a promotion.

  39. Well, journalists have always been slightly beyond the pale, but it seems to me that newspapers are no longer principaly about news, as in information, but entertainment, and most journalists are now really social commentators and/or barely disguised publicity agents.

    Nothing necessarily wrong with that, newspapers are merely adapting to changing times, if only the commentators/PAs woud stop pretending/insisting they are journalists.

  40. I should add that I meet drug dealers when they get bashed up (normally very nasty facial fractures BTW, a pis*ed off druggie really can get nasty).

  41. Not sure Diogenes your favourable comparison of random drug dealers over random Journalists is reasonable or fair.

    And then you make a generous comment on Michael Mansell, the Editor of the Advertiser defending the deceptive Nicole Cornes story.

    Journo’s storys are generally subject to the sub editor or editor’s decision (or above) as to how to present the story , what is the ‘headline’ , what quotes or part thereof are selectively published and most damaging of all in the context.

    The management level of the Media from sub editor up are where blame should be directed and given the facts Nicole Cornes stated tonight on the ABC , Michael Mansell is a disgrace because he would have OK’d the headline & story
    either by his direction or with other managers.

    Pity ‘boycotts’ could not be effectivew against such garbage Corne’s storys and indeed the ‘OZ’ and others where appropriate

  42. Diogenes at 438.

    That item says so much. It is so ugly and viral, I worry for my computer.

    As said, I do hope Nicole stands again. For herself, as well as people such as I.

    Never mind the poisonous beasties. It is not actually about beating them, but it would be pleasant. And to think I bear Kevin Foley ill will. He is a pussycat against these feral media maulers.

    You are in Sturt, I think. Mia, next time.

  43. To my knowledge I don’t know any dealers (though I think a couple of my school colleagues may have gone on to find that calling) but I must say Dio’s comparison is, at the very least, an interesting one.
    At least drug dealers don’t pretend they are doing it for the good of society.

  45. It looks as though they have drummed up their fan club to provide supporting comments for the local media and mostly printed ones that were totally disparaging of Nicole.

    Trying to justify their vindictive assualt on this lovely person in such a manner is reprehensible at best.

    Shame on you, Adelaide media, shame on you all.

  46. Ron- I got the impression Mansell was washing his hands of the matter and blaming Michael Owen for misrepresenting the circumstances to him. One or the other is a disgrace, but overall I’ll blame journalism in general.

    I’ve been involved in heaps of newspaper stories they NEVER EVER EVER get the story right. They have absolutely no regard for the truth. I know of three stories at the moment that would (and probably should) make the front page of the Advertiser if they knew them but I would never trust a journalist with them. They may still get out but if they do, The Advertiser will get them wrong or miss the point.

  47. Yes Diogenes that was my impression of Mansell also , which was what annoyed me as the Managing Editor HE made the decision either solely or with other managers.

    and most thinking people know this yet on National TV he gives us ‘spin’
    …no apology ….no regret it may have not been balanced

    Yet the deceptive story hurt Nicole personally and arguably was a further dent into her ‘credibility’. Her story was very moving & I hope she runs again Diogenes

  48. My comment about drug dealers and journalists related only to the “who would you trust” common profession poll. I’m obviously not arguing that drug dealers are better people than journalists.
    I am arguing that if you are more likely to get “ripped off” or end up feeling cheated by your interaction with the journalist than with the drug dealer.

    I’m often asked by patients and families whether they should talk to a journalist (burns and trauma being my most common patients). I always say “No”. No-one ever looks back and thinks “Gee I wish I told that journalist how sad it was when my son was blown up”. Most of them feel used up and spat out.
    I should add that this is not always the case and I found Peter Overton from 60 Minutes really decent after Bali, but again I doubt he actually helped overall, despite the best of intentions.

  49. Also today the Dept. of climate change released a 2007 audit Report of CO2 emissions predicted for 1008 to 2012 when Kyoto concludes vs 2006 audit.

    During the campaign Peter Costello said the 2006 audit showed we were predicted to be only 1% above the Kyoto requirement that by 2012 the CO2 levels be 108% of 1990 levels. i now find Peter Costello was statistically correct.

    What peter omitted to say and the 2007 Report makes clear is that all the gains have come from reduced land clearing & reafforestation. ie little Govt. policy

    (2007 report predicts we will now meet that 2012 target..a 1% improvement)

  50. That Nicole Cornes thingy was a worry

    Why put a candidate with those hassles through it?

    Why would she do it and why would they allow her to do it?

    surly if you do, you prepare her don’t you (for everybodys sake)

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