Late mail

There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.

Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.

Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.

McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.

Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.

Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.

Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.

Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.

To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.

ORDINARY ABSENT PRE-POLL POSTAL
2007 2004 2007 2004 2007 2004 2007 2004
Labor
 44.0 38.3 5.8 39.3 34.0 5.4 41.1 34.9 6.2 40.2 34.4 5.9
Coalition
 41.7 46.5 -4.8 40.8 44.2 -3.4 45.3 48.3 -3.0 49.2 52.9 -3.7
Greens
 7.6 7.0 0.6 12.1 10.9 1.2 6.7 7.9 -1.2 5.0 4.9 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

683 comments on “Late mail”

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  1. GG @ 598,
    Sure, opinion polls are likely to get much worse for the Libs over the next 6-12 months.
    Whether things have “bottomed” in terms of real election results, though, it’s way too early to tell. As Adam and others have pointed out, there are historical indicators both ways.

  2. Ron compare the state of the economy Keating left Australia and what Costello left Australia, history will show PJK as a crude arrogant man who ran Australia into the ground, while Costello whilst never PM will have more respect from later generations because of the way he grew and maintained Australia’s economy.

    Dyno, no one will break his record as longest serving Treasurer IMHO.

  3. Adam, re Steyn:

    I agree it’s pretty turgid tosh in the GG today, and yes, as the teacher says, he can do better. But unlike Hitchens he’s no genius with words, and this lurch into neocon fantasy land with the ‘war of civilisations’ stuff just does not stack up to scrutiny.

    I’m as peturbed by religious zealots as the next guy, and it’s got many truly ugly manifestaions in Islam, but it’s by no means unique in that. The handful of nutters that ‘go the jihad ‘ in the West are not the products of socio-economic exlusion but rather tend to be middle class cross-cultural misfits (just look at Ossama’s family background for example), like the recent self-immolating UK doctors.

    Steyn’s dichotomy, Western Judeo-Christian good, Islam bad is a symptom not a diagnosis.

  4. Treasurer’s rarely get remembered except

    Howard : 11% inflation , 22% interest rates , 11% unemployment

    Keating : brought Australia out of the Howard recession ,
    deregulated the WHOLE Aussie economy & his recession comment

    Costello: GST introduced ,was treasurer during the Mining boom (he did not create)
    desired to be PM but lacked ticker to challenge

    I expect the above will be all that History writes

  5. 602
    Glen Says:
    December 3rd, 2007 at 11:52 pm

    Ron compare the state of the economy Keating left Australia and what Costello left Australia,

    Ron says
    Howard as treasurer in 1982 left Labor with the following PER THE ABS:

    : 11% inflation , 22% interest rates , 11% unemployment

    This is what WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN

  7. ShowsOn @ #591 says

    Can a Country Liberal Party Senator CHOOSE to attend Liberal Party room meetings? Or do they have some sort of a coalition agreement to meet with the National Party?

    It is my understanding that each CLP MHR and Senator can choose which Party they join in Canberra.
    In the 1970s, MHR Sam Calder sat with the NCP while Senator Bernie Kilgariff sat with the Libs.
    When Grant Tambling was a MHR (1980-3), he also sat with the NCP.
    In 1987, Tambling was elected as a Senator and Paul Everingham was elected as a MHR. Everingham chose to sit with the Libs and Tambling sat with the Nats in the Senate. Since then they have followed this arrangement.
    I suspect that Scullion was elected deputy leader of the Nats, to discourage him from changing to the Libs.

  8. Dyno,

    Opinion Polls are the least of your worries!

    You have Costello on the back bench, who if he stays the distance will likely harbour leadership ambitions.

    You have Abbott and Downer traipsing their coats to remind people they are still around.

    You have Turnbull, openly ambitious and already providing his Leader character advice.

    You have Julie Bishop deputy leader because she is a women and can raise money in WA where all the seats for the Libs to retain Govrnment are.?

    You have the leader who barely won the vote and seems to have the impact of a marshmellow.

    The Libs have a split between their conservatives and progressives. Howard kept it all together because of patronage and the fact he was a winner.

    If you think the Libs are going to be doing anything but looking internally over the next few years as they descend to a real life sh*t fight for the soul and character of the Liberal Party, then it you who is deluded.

  10. History may remember Peter Costello, probably in terms of some of the disparaging, and amazingly prescient, epithets bestowed on him by Paul Keating. More respect from later generations? Glen, sometimes you do spout the most terrible bilge. Old boy.

  11. Costello has left Australia with a trade deficit debt of $543 Billion !!!!
    (despite receiving the proceeds of the Mining Boom)

    It was $181 Billion in 1996

    The debt is over 6% of GDP…..5th worst in the world

    Costello economic record therefore is a disgrace

  12. Good morning y’all 🙂

    Speaking of Keating, can’t he shut up and enjoy life?

    I can’t beleive he said a week ago that we made a mistake voting him out.

  13. GG @ 608,
    I’m not saying you’re wrong about the Libs’ future – time will tell, after all.
    But I am saying that all this stuff is just your theories – after all, not too many people thought the Hawke Govt would go backwards at the 1984 election (and that was hardly a united Opposition, either).
    I don’t know how you can say I am “deluded” when all I’m saying is that the future is unpredictable.

  15. 612
    John of Melbourne Says:
    December 4th, 2007 at 12:09 am

    Good morning y’all 🙂

    Speaking of Keating, can’t he shut up and enjoy life?

    RON SAYS
    Keating IS enjoying life now that both Howard (lost his seat)
    and Costello (did ‘dummy spit’) have had their reputations trashed last week !!!!

  17. Keating is a fool.
    Fancy boasting about the “recession we had to have”.
    He’s been the Liberals’ best asset for the last decade.

  19. Ron Brown I wish I could believe you but I think that Keatings calander stopped in 1996, lol.

    I don’t think it is a big deal that Howard lost his seat as he lost Government and was going to go regardless.

  21. Those in Government write the history

    IF you think Howard’s and Costello’s soiled reputations are bad now ,
    wait till Rudd & Co. have had three years to bury the little of what’s left !!!!

  22. #612 A few things I forgot to mention. Former Labor leaders, having claimed hero status, are allowed to crap on, talk themselves up and berate current Labor leaders for their lack of *insert noun of choice*.

    Former Liberal leaders are allowed to go swimming on deserted beaches, become faux former Labor leaders or crawl off into the nearest cave and never be heard from again.

  23. well Keating was on radio today and was asked what will they say about Costello in 20 years

    Keating replied: Costello’s name will appear followed SOLELY BY an exclamation mark

  27. [Quiz question: four members of the current ministry have an Order of Australia. Who can name them? (No looking it up.)]

    Two off the top of my head are Mike Kelly & Peter Garratt.

    What about Greg Combet and Bill Shorten ?

  28. #
    619
    John of Melbourne Says:
    December 4th, 2007 at 12:15 am

    Ron Brown I wish I could believe you but I think that Keatings calander stopped in 1996, lol.

    I don’t think it is a big deal that Howard lost his seat as he lost Government and was going to go regardless.

    Ron says: I can assure you Howard unlike you thinks its a big deal to lose his own seat because HE KNOWS this is what he will b remembered for as with Stanley Bruce

  38. Trivia,

    Peter Garrett is the second rock nroll type person wgho has become a LAbor Minister, Paul Keating prior to entering parliament was manager of a group called The Ramrods, which had 3 flop singles on EMI – those tracks and others were rer-eleased on a Compilation LP during the 80’s by Glenn A Baker’s Raven Label.

  39. #636 ah Rosemary Bollen, Adam. News travels pretty slowly to Tokyo these days, I thought she may have made a late-life entry into politics.

  44. If the Gay farmer Big Brother Enterant had stood for the Nats, then we would’ve had the first reality TV contestant in the Parliament (though if Pauline H had won her senate seat…)

  50. Hi guys. Just popped by. See what’s doin.

    Having a bit of fun, watching Kenny. To relieve the ennui. Just watched the racing car scene, maybe the V*8 things, Adam, ah, the noise, the fever, the excitement, the adrenalin, anxiety and alcohol fuelled brawling, the language, the madness, the absurdity, the winner takes all headlong pitch, the ups of a great move, the downs of a spin out, the exhilaration, the depression, the absurd and crazy setting with crowds burning portable dunnies to round it off!

    Put me so in mind of the high old days of the worst of the most fevered of the blogs, everyone throwing everything for all it was worth. spinning out on polls, slumped in corners, them were the days!

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