There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite briefly popped on to the list a few days ago, but it’s gone now. Two other seats that could be of at least theoretical interest come the preference count are O’Connor and Calare. In O’Connor, Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner (18.37 per cent) has a vague hope of getting ahead of Labor (20.42 per cent) on preferences from, among others, the Greens (6.68 per cent), and then overcoming Liberal member Wilson Tuckey (45.25 per cent) on Labor preferences. Similarly, in Calare the independent candidate Gavin Priestley (23.73 per cent) might be able to overcome Labor (24.84 per cent) with preferences from the Greens (2.60 per cent) and the Citizens Electoral Council (0.94 per cent, which was boosted by a donkey vote that will flow on to Labor) and then, just maybe, within spitting distance of John Cobb of the Nationals (47.89 per cent). For some reason only ordinary votes have been counted to this point in O’Connor.
Bowman. Labor’s Jason Young narrowly led Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming from election night until Tuesday when Laming got his nose in front on pre-polls, but this has proved to be the only close electorate where postals have favoured Labor. Young recovered the tiniest of leads and has inched slowly ahead to his current lead of 116 votes.
Herbert. Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay leads by just 60 votes, and I have unconfirmed reports that only provisional votes remain to be counted. Last time provisionals favoured Lindsay 279-257: if there’s the same number this time and they swing the same way as the rest, Colbran will close the gap by 45 votes and lose by 15.
McEwen. Another seat where Labor was ahead on election night, but postals put Liberal incumbent Fran Bailey a very handy 502 votes up on Monday. That looked like it might be enough, but a remarkably good partial count of absent votes pulled it into 111 yesterday. Further counting of pre-polls then pushed her lead out to 150.
Solomon. Labor’s Damian Hale was a full 1.0 per cent ahead on election night, but late factors such as overseas Defence Force votes have steadily whittled it down to 262 votes, or 0.3 per cent. That leaves some hope for CLP incumbent Dave Tollner, though Hale should probably get up.
Swan. Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie had a 134-vote lead on election night, but has since had to watch as each new batch of votes has delivered a few dozen votes to Liberal candidate Steve Irons, who currently leads by 239 and is looking increasingly likely to emerge as the only Liberal candidate to topple a sitting Labor MP.
Dickson. Labor’s Fiona McNamara had reason to feel confident about her 425-vote lead on election night, but a strong performance on postals by Liberal member Peter Dutton pushed him 268 votes ahead on Wednesday. The seat has since provided Labor with some rare late count good news, absents and pre-polls reeling in the lead in to just 106.
Robertson. This one hadn’t been on my watch list, with Labor candidate Belinda Neal holding a formidable 1094 vote lead on election night. However, Liberal member Jim Lloyd has kept whittling away Neal’s lead, once again being boosted by postals which have gone 58-42 in his favour. Neal’s lead is now just 273 – too close to comfort, but probably just enough.
To illustrate the recurring theme of Liberal comebacks, here is a table comparing party support by type of vote cast for 2004 and 2007, bearing in mind that the 2007 figures are still incomplete. While there was a slightly better performance by the Coalition in declaration votes across the board, it does seem they have managed to produce their best results on postals where it has mattered most.
| ORDINARY | ABSENT | PRE-POLL | POSTAL | |||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | 2007 | 2004 | |||||||||
|
Labor
|
44.0 | 38.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 34.0 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 34.9 | 6.2 | 40.2 | 34.4 | 5.9 | ||||
|
Coalition
|
41.7 | 46.5 | -4.8 | 40.8 | 44.2 | -3.4 | 45.3 | 48.3 | -3.0 | 49.2 | 52.9 | -3.7 | ||||
|
Greens
|
7.6 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | -1.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | ||||
Whilst i sympathise for his family and friends over his death, however why so much carry on about his death. The media jump on the bandwagon and carry on, now what did Matt do again, did he discover Pencillon or a wonder drug or help provide better sanitation in the third world..
Marky marky (485),
The government does not determine the definition of unemployment. The ABS does, in accordacne with internationally agreed principles. Contray to the oft-repeated myth, John Howard never changed the definition and , contrary to the other side’s oft-repeated myth neither Bob Hawke nor Paul Keating changed it either. in fact, the definition of unemployment as being less than one hour’s work a week has not changed since 1960. Here is the ABS account of unemployment measures: http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RN/2006-07/07rn18.pdf
In 2 years time my point of view about the vultures in the media will be the excepted wisdom and many hear can use this point of view as a punchline.
Okay, no more from or about K Jin.
Did Swan actually say anything on the 7:30 report on what he would do to stop a recession without constantly resorting to slogans ‘downward pressure’ ect???
I’m intrigued to hear from Glen and aother supporters of the free market economy about how the Treasurer is supposed “stop a recession.” Fixed prices? Import controls? A wage freeze? (No, tried that under Fraser.) Free market economies are supposed to run themselves, and recessions happen when they happen. Capitalism is a cyclical system, and recessions actually serve a useful purpose in a capitalist economy. They weed out weak and inefficient companies and free up capital and labour for the strong and efficient. Read your Milton Friedman, Glen.
There has been much discussion today on this blog about the Howard Government’s economic legacy, and whether it was good, or a litany of waster opportunities.
But where I think there’s quite an indictment of the Howard government is: Why did it totally fail to PREDICT the mining boom? And is Treasury and the rest of the bureaucracy equally at fault for this?
It seems to me that the mining boom came upon us suddenly, providing us with lots of revenue. But where were the skilled workers for the boom? Where was the housing and essential services in the mining towns?
We could have done much better out of the mining boom if we had been prepared, and the Coalition just missed this completely. By the time we catch up with the necessary labour force and infrastructure, other countries will be undercutting us for price on coal, iron ore, uranium, copper etc.
This whole issue intrigues me,as I was brought up in Wollongong, and saw, in the 1970s, the Fraser Government let coal mines shut down, the Newcastle Steelworks close, and thousands of skilled metallurgists, engineers, geologists, mine electricians etc take redundancy packages. Quite a few of these were people I went to school with. Those who managed to keep their jobs are now earning absolute fortunes.
The predictions now are that the next boom will be agriculture, as China, India and others require more meat, dairy and grain products as their affluence increases and they move from agricultural to industrial economies.
Is Labor planning for this? Are they aware it might happen? What is our plan once Labor ends the drought??!!
Ireland became a wealthy country in a very short space of time because it predicted the IT boom. Australia needs to be ahead of the pack for the next boom. My gut feeling is that it WILL be agriculture. We need to be sorting out water use, working out what overseas markets will require in five years, developing northern Australia, and assisting our food processing industries NOW.
505 Glen – you obviously have the answer to stopping a recession. Go on share it with us.
I’m not convinced that in the event of a recession Labor would pay for it electorally at the next election. People have seen this coming through the last year of the Howard government. Also it would be very easy to argue in an election campaign that a coalition government would revert back to Workchoices thus making job security and working conditions tenuous to say the least in poorer economic times.
So Marky stop drooling over the prospect and hope to hell for everyone’s sake a recession is a avoided.
So what does everyone think about the latest counting in doubtful seats?
My prediction is Labor will probably gain Flynn, Robertson, Solomon AND Bowman(Jason Young’s lead keeps slowly growing, a rare win for Labor on postals so far).
Herbert looks gone – Lindsay will keep it, but will the residents of Townsville still get their V8 car race?
[Did Swan actually say anything on the 7:30 report on what he would do to stop a recession without constantly resorting to slogans ‘downward pressure’ ect???]
Do you want him to say he will use force to take over the means of production?
+
Enjaybee (494): Mark Butler, the member for Port Adelaide, is a former left-wing union boss and honours law graduate – and the great great grandson and great grandson of Sir Richard Butler (1) and Sir Richard Butler (2), Liberal premiers of South Australia.
Progressive,
I think you are pretty much on the money for Flynn and Bowman, but I would still have doubt over McEwen, Robertson and Solomon.
Also, today’s Swan adjustment must put had the libs bowels shaking
To my mind, its the picture of the 2PP catch up in NON-close seats that is interseting.
AEC is currently saying there are 10 seats where ALP is in front by less than 2.0%.
That’s going to be a very narrow margin to defend at the next election
Gary Bruce (509) I think it is important that an uncommitted voter like yourself keeps an open mind for the time being on who should win the next election. Closer to polling day you can make an objective assessment on which side of politics is best able to take the reins of goverment after 2010 or whenever the next election is called.
There is no way Gary is uncommitted
I only just caught up with Swan: Kim Wilkie isn’t quite so dead after all, only 34 votes behind.
There is no way 10pse is uncommitted either but whether I’m a committed voter or not is irrelevant to the points I was making.
i have never said i am
Gary i never said that Labor would be ousted from office.
But a recession come depression would make it tough, and to suggest that Labor should revert back to harping on about Workchoices would be silly, better to positive instead.
Anyhow many people working casually will be out of work and they will not care to much about workchoices.
Casual work needs to reduced it is serious problem.
As i said the other day If Turnbull is leader which i think he will be Labor should wedge him in by bringing back the Republic debate, people in the Nationals will be up in arms and those loony right wing ideologues like Flint and Pell will be going berserk.
Hmm, Wilkie’s definitely not out of the running in Swan.
Could still be my pick of 85 🙂
Cardinal Pell is not a “loony right-wing ideologue.” He supported the republic, he opposed Work Choices and I’d be fairly certain he votes Labor. He’s only conservative on Catholic morality issues like abortion.
Mr Squiggle, history shows you usually need to add 1.5% to the swing needed for first defence seats (Mackerras sophomore effect). Add to this the consistent habit of Australians re-electing a govt first time round. Many Coalition seats will be low hanging as well, so not all good news for LNP. In fact if things don’t shape up well for them they might be chasing 20+ seats in 2013.
Thanks Phil at 512. I was attempting to draw this to Adam’s attention but I am sure that he already knew this anyway. If he didn’t glad to be of assistance to help him with his psephological records (with your help).
Correct Pell did support the republic but thinking he is a Labor voter may be missplaced, seemingly he is an conservative for change http://www.republic.org.au/arm-2001/cahs/friends.html
No Labor federal government has ever increased its majority when seeking a second term: Fisher was defeated in 1913, Scullin was defeated in 1931, Chifley lost seats in 1946, Whitlam lost seats in 1974, Hawke lost seats in 1984. So history will be against Rudd increasing his majority in 2010. But the tendency in recent state elections has been for the Libs to collapse when they lose office, allowing Labor governments to have big second-term wins: Carr in 1998, Beattie in 2001, Bracks in 2002, Rann in 2005. You would have to think there is a high possibility the federal Libs will go the same way this time. But no-one can predict what will happen over the next three years.
Showson – the CLP sit with the Libs in the HoR and with the Nats in the Senate. They are a separate organisation to both so it is indicative of the Nats lack of depth that they have chosen someone from outside their own party to be their deputy leader (and leader in the Senate) under Truss.
I’d be very surprised if Pell agreed to have his name put on that list.
Although Snedden wasn’t a great leader, the libs federally generally have in all those elections had fairly competent leaders. On the other hand the State Governments have had a bunch of boring dills and have suffered from in fighting. This scenario i doubt will happen with the federal libs.
Labor at a state level certainly has a good track record when it comes to the second election after seizing power so I think Bryce @522 may well be right.
With almost universal predictions of leadership instability and self immolation, Labor could well pick up a swag of seats in 2010/11.
ABC election site is predicting 85 seats for Labor, so they think Kim Wilkie will hold Swan?
I asked this before but it might get more attention now that comments have slowed down. Can we try to build a list of Liberal MPs who were considered to be supporters of Peter Costello (or, at least, would have voted for him in a leadership ballot against Howard)? I’m aware of the following:
Victoria: Costello, Georgiou, Smith, Pearce, Hunt, Billson, Broadbent, Ronaldson, Fifield, Troeth, Kemp.
NSW: Payne.
Qld: Mason, Brandis, Slipper, Trood.
SA: Pyne.
I know that this list can’t be close to complete, because he was always said to have 25-30 solid votes in the party room.
I forgot to add Moyland and Washer from WA too.
Does anyone have a sense of whether this small change in margin during the counting of postals, absents etc is a uniform thing??
or is it happening in one or two states only?
I’ve been looking at the numbers and can’t form a view one way or the other
Surely, though, the dynamics of voting must be a bit more complex than just lists of names — so if Joe Blow knows which way Nelly Bly is voting he might be influenced by her decision or want to be on the winning team or whatever. That’s why I don’t accept the argument that Costello didn’t challenge Rodent because he knew he didn’t have the numbers — I reckon the act of challenging might shake some doubter from the tree.
Adam nice cover up for Swan not announcing one economic initiative one economic policy to reduce inflation, the elephant in the room was Labor’s IR policy which has been shown to be inflationary. Doesn’t it worry you that we have a Treasurer with no economic policy bar ‘slogans’?? At least Cossie had some policies Swan is full of hot air.
God help us if there is a recession because the green ALP Minister won’t have a clue how to manage it.
The postals and pre-poll votes are strong for Irons, these votes as William said were misplaced and have been added to the totals there has been no turn around for Wilkie in these votes and unless there is he’ll lose.
529
markmywords – Labor’s vote can’t get much higher than this and you’re assuming that all those in the Liberal marginals who voted Labor to get rid of Howie will not change their votes after 3 years, wishful thinking IMHO. These Liberal marginals will swing back to us in 2010. And Rudd could be a one termer if we have a recession, making Nelson Prime Minister.
521
Adam, I’m pretty sure the Cardinal votes Abbott.
Glen, you didn’t answer my question. How in a deregulated free market economy, and a fairly small economy exposed to the global economy, is a Treasurer supposed to “stop a recession”? Howard couldn’t stop the 1982 recession, and he had more levers of economic management at his disposal than any Treasurer has now. I await your answer.
Glen if Nelson is leader the Liberals will not win the next election. Just looking at him on television gives you the impression the guy is shifty and unreliable, he is an asset for Labor.
The Cardinal certainly votes anti-gay…
Glen what policies did Costello have again?
Well once it’s happened its very hard to stop a recession of course Adam but with an experienced Treasurer the effects could be managed, though i can’t see Swan making the situation any better when it happens. Even if you had a big economy you couldn’t stop a recession anyway.
Marky, if Rudd can make a dozen gaffes and blunders in his first year as Opposition Leader and you and the left not make a peep out of it i hardly think you can credibly attack Brendan, he deserves a fair go.
Apres wouldn’t he vote DLP?
tax reform
superannuation reform
GST
workchoices (reduce inflation)
future fund
higher education endowment fund
health fund
ect ect.
You’ve got to love Howard’s religious nutters. One of them, Pastor Danny Nalliah (with whom Howard & Costello both held private meetings) had given a prophecy prior to the election stating that God had told him Howard would win. It’s a bit humiliating when a self proclaimed prophet gets it so wrong. In a message to his flock he writes:
“On Saturday 24th November, as I was just about to minister at a combined churches service in Albany, Western Australia, I received the shocking news from my wife that John Howard had lost the election…After ministering to the people of God on Saturday night, I struggled to fall asleep in my motel room in Albany, Western Australia, as I was all alone, in tears and feeling very sad for most of the night. I kept asking the Lord, “DID I GET IT WRONG???”…As I begin reading the prophetic word from the Lord, I was greatly stirred in my spirit to read the following words that I had stated, “I will boldly declare that PM John Howard will be re-elected in the Nov election – ‘IF THE BODY OF CHRIST UNITES IN PRAYER AND ACTION.’…
Again I heard the voice of the Lord, “For My people were not united in prayer and action for this election. If they were, they would have experienced spiritual revival under My freedom reigning in this nation, but now My people have chosen another way. They have not voted for My will, but for self gain and personal change.”
So foks, apparently Australia has not voted according to God’s will. Danny didn’t get it wrong – Australia did! Now we all know that God is a Torie.
Adam,
It depends on the global recession, give some details and we can discuss scenarios, otherwise, the topic is a bit up in the air really. for example, what constitutes “global” these days?
I was just reading some JB Were economic research today, they put the chance of a recession in the US at only 40-45% provided the Fed cuts rates at their next meeting!!
In other words, if the Fed doesn’t cut rates, the chance of a recession gets close to 70-75%
A US recession is a real possibility at the moment..
Workchoices did a good job at reducing inflation,
funds and more funds,
perhaps only the GST was a Costello reform if you want to call it reform i’d rather call it a stuff up, and tax reform must be amalagated with this.
Glen says: “Well once it’s happened its very hard to stop a recession of course Adam but with an experienced Treasurer the effects could be managed, though i can’t see Swan making the situation any better when it happens. Even if you had a big economy you couldn’t stop a recession anyway.”
I didn’t ask how you “stop a recession” once it’s happened, a nonsensical proposition. I asked how an Australian Treasurer is supposed to PREVENT a recession, which is what Glen accused Swan (on his first day in office) of failing to do. Again I point out that Treasurer Howard failed to prevent the 1982 recession, in a much more managed economy than we have now. Does Glen actually know the first thing about economics, or is he talking out of his cloaca as usual?
McEwen updated at 9:50 Eastern,
No change
I never said Swan didn’t know how to stop a recession once its happened i was referring to managing a recession, stopping one is immaterial and probably impossible IMHO.
Adam your defence of Rooster Swan is laughable this bloke had not one economic policy to present or suggest Labor would implement not one, zero, zip. Not only that he had no idea how to plan for a recession how he would manage a recession or what policies he could have in place to reduce its effects.
Glen, Pell is a politician. Who knows what way he votes, but imo he doesn’t cling to those ancient DLP loyalties. All he cares about is pleasing the Vatican.
Ferny Grover @ 543,
Reminds me of a Ruprt Murdoch story of when he sacked the resident astrologist in one of his newpapers.
The letter started, “As you will already know,…….”