What I don’t know about the Liberal Party could fill a warehouse, but most of the prescriptions outlined by Michael Kroger on Sky News on Tuesday accord with my prejudices:
The organisational wings around the country need to be reformed immediately, particularly in relation to the branch structure and preselections. There’s a lot of things that can be done, very quickly. The party is in a terrible electoral position, but it can very quickly put itself into a fantastic position. This is not a five or ten year repair job. You could actually fix all the organisational and structural problems in the Liberal Party within 12 months if you had the will to do it, and make whoever the incoming leader is in a fantastic position to fight the next federal election in three years’ time. But what tends to happens is people retreat to their corners, they want to protect their own power bases and nothing happens. It requires some strong decision-making from the senior people to fix this thing, they can fix it in 12 months … The branch structure is 60 years old and even though the branch members still do a fantastic job, it’s the structure, not the branch members, it’s the structure which is drowning us. We’ve got probably 500 people in the Victorian Liberal Party whose job is as honorary auditor … There need to be branch amalgamations, we need to base the party around state or federal electorates, you need to broaden the base of people voting in preselections, you need to have perhaps a senior committee of senior party people who have the final say over preselections to rubber stamp the selections, you’ve got to stop the petty branch stacking, we should amalgamate with the National Party, we should give the federal party some more power a little like the ALP does, we should make it a federalist party and not just individual states, we need to totally revamp the fundraising within the organisation and we need to give the federal executive some power … you just can’t have situations where five or 10 or 20 people can stack a few branches and take over a safe Liberal Party seat and preselect a C-grade candidate and be happy with that. I pay credit to the Labor Party for some of the candidates they preselected, I don’t like their politics, but the fact is in various places they strong-armed some tired old members out, put some new people in who may or may not succeed but on the face of it some of them have got very good credentials for parliament. That’s the way you have to operate in politics. To leave these things to the branch-stackers is a recipe for disaster.
Malcolm Turnbull – wealthy, assertive, independently powerful – struck me as being just the man for the job outlined by Kroger. Perhaps the party room knows better. Or perhaps, to use Kroger’s formulation, they have signalled an intention to retreat to their corners and protect their own power bases, and nothing will happen.
Recommended reading: Alister Drysdale of the Business Spectator reports that both parties’ internal polling showed a late Coalition recovery that was stopped dead in its tracks by the Lindsay pamphlet disgrace. It’s also argued that the fake Jeff Kennett letter regarding proposed funding cuts to the states had the same impact during the last week of the 1996 campaign. I personally do not imagine that either incident was single-handedly decisive, but this is not the first report to emerge of a sharp shift in party tracking polling following Jackie Kelly’s infamous “Chaser-style prank” interview of last Wednesday. There’s also a very intriguing article on the Liberal Party’s late-term leadership ructions from Pamela Williams in today’s Financial Review (subscriber only unfortunately).
cobber,
on the face of it I am thinking that given the Kyoto negotiations must involve China then the added diplomastic bonus of Penny is much like Kevin’s mandorin proficiency – it has to be to our advantage.
And Garrett is mud with tthe environmental groups right now. If he ditches the pulp mill all will be forgiven.
so Adam –
do you love us now?
Doing this has caused many members of the AMWU in my workplace to ask me to start up a new union so we can leave this one. Personally the ACTU can stick it and i will never do the work i did for them in this election. When they decide that they need people on the streets again i will not be one of them
Bill, you can’t have it both ways. If you want union support, join the ALP. Dead simple.
As a Labor supporter , I luv & appreciate the Greens
The Greens are publicly of repeatedly of their ‘general’ support of ALP over LCP
BUT when will Labor/Greens get the message through to the Public that
Family First gives all its preferences to the LCP but does NOT highlight this fact
Why because the ‘name’ of the Party attracts ALL families & I believe alot
of marginal Labor or Greens voters give their ist or 2nd preference to Family First on the Party ‘name’ without realising they are a right wing Party
[Bill, you can’t have it both ways. If you want union support, join the ALP. Dead simple.]
Except for the WA ANF with the odious Mark Olson.
Adam,
that’s crap.You do not have to join the ALP.
The Greens in Vic got public support from teh ETU, the Fireies, the Nurses and Sharron Buuows was a ket speaker at the Greens State conference, publicly supporting our stand on repealing Workchoices.
I thnk the Greens have become more Labor than Labor .
(PS what happened to the ‘U’ -as in LaboUr?? as in Work.)
Bill
Why on earth did they do that, internal politics, personalities. I’ve been on both sides of the fence as a union rep and a employer and seen the best and worst of both.
The worst union reps were bullies who did not even know their own award, the worst bosses were those that kept a list of employees they wanted to sack or had sacked and ticked each off.
One persons actions or incident should not affect us though it does, so I would encourage you to stick with the unions and the ACTU.
Funny thing about the unions is that the reps are elected in a ballot so you can also get right wing reps, I think a liberal candidate was actually a union rep.
And when you get down to it unions are democracy in action in that if you don’t like the way you are represented you can vote them out.
that would be …The eTu. the Firies, sharron Burrows. and key note.
Note – i am not driving a car tonight. for good reason it would seem, if my typing is any indication.
My top ten predictions for the new term of parliament:
1. Brendan Nelson will be incredibly unpopular, Kevin Rudd will be wildly popular. For at least the first 18 months.
2. Kevin Rudd will govern as a centrist in the hope of getting a big landslide in 2010. Shades of Hawke c.1984. Hence nothing radical only more spending on education and health.
3. The unions will be offered a transition bill in Jan/Feb and told the next wave of reform will be contingent on a 2010 win.
4. A 4 year term referendum will be supported by both parties in 2010.
5. The State governments will block any federalism reforms.
6. Rudd will end up running against the States in 2010.
7. Wayne Swan will be under sustained attack as Treasurer by the Gillard forces with a view to Gillard replacing him after 2010 and positioning her for the leadership.
8. We will be debating whether we are in “technical” recession by Christmas 2009.
9. Bill Shorten and Greg Combet will be in Cabinet no later than the 2010 election.
10. Malcolm Turnbull will lead the Libs into the 2010 election after making certain promises to the Howard loyalists.
Esj, you’ve done it again it was the next ten that we were really interested in.
ESJ – and I thought LTEP was a pessimist.
Ron
What you said about FF is spot on, they are just an offshooot of the libs abd Fred Niles CDP and will fade away eventually, I think many did not realise wher there vote ended up.
The libs saved seats because of One Nation and FF.
StanS, I don’t think you would have an argument with either myself or my shrink mate. My father was a chippie, his father was a railway engineer in India. Both of us, as the rest of the team I lead, are solid. I guess my query is more about how to beter organise and energise potential support and input to policy formulation, as well as doing something more useful in terms of multiple payments, to all sorts of organisations we have to belong to. It’s a bit of a mess at the moment. It may be of no interest to you, and that’s O.K.
Just my tuppence worth GB, in time we will all see I guess.
I may be incorrect but I though in Victoria to be a member of the ALP you signed a pledge which says something along the line that you support Unionism and if your are an Employer you are prepared to employ Union members
On thing which impresses me about the Greens is their Website is open about its branches and even when and where meetings are held, sadly the major parties have a secret approach which I can understand.
I do wish both major parties would make a greater effort to recruit members.
I tips me lid to you E.S.J. Good luck on your journey. Time for me to go back to paying full attention to my mob – the sad, the mad & the bad, inc.. They’re actually you and me, esj & glen. Thanks, William & Bludgers, yet again. See you when the next election hoves into view. Ta Ra.
Well ESJ, if you are indeed he, I’m not too fussed by your bizarre one term predictions.
Only one term government in Australia was Scullin’s, and then only because of Wall Street Crash.
Methinks you be absolute twit. Dream on.
Oh, and also ESJ, you’re a goose.
McEwen
My guess is a key-entry error, with the ALP and LIB TCP entries for the Absentees put in back-to-front. Could the scrutineers confirm? 38% to LIB in the Absentee is just not believable, but 62% is.
# Edward StJohnon 01 Dec 2007 at 10:28 pm
My top ten predictions for the new term of parliament:
(1. Brendan Nelson will be incredibly unpopular, Kevin Rudd will be wildly popular. For at least the first 18 months.)
I agree with the first part but in saying this alot will depend on how Rudd performs
(2. Kevin Rudd will govern as a centrist in the hope of getting a big landslide in 2010. Shades of Hawke c.1984. Hence nothing radical only more spending on education and health.)
In 1984 the ALP suffered a swing but he will be centrist
(3. The unions will be offered a transition bill in Jan/Feb and told the next wave of reform will be contingent on a 2010 win.)
I don’t see that happening for if come Feb and the Liberals say ‘NO’ then three months later in the budget month the I.R bill will be reintroduced opening the door to a DD and a clear landslide to Rudd so the question is will Nelsobn be smart enough to let Rudd’s I.R pass the Parlianment
(4. A 4 year term referendum will be supported by both parties in 2010.)
Do we need a referendum
(5. The State governments will block any federalism reforms.)
Gee that would be a first, except if Rudd is popular and a few of these state leaders are less so then Rudd may acheive more than the normal
(6. Rudd will end up running against the States in 2010.)
Quite possible but may strain his relationship with his Queensland base
(7. Wayne Swan will be under sustained attack as Treasurer by the Gillard forces with a view to Gillard replacing him after 2010 and positioning her for the leadership.)
Qite possible except I would imgaine Gillard would defeat Swan in any leadership contest
(8. We will be debating whether we are in “technical” recession by Christmas 2009.)
I think that may happen sooner if what is happening in the US continues
(9. Bill Shorten and Greg Combet will be in Cabinet no later than the 2010 election.)
Quite likely
(10. Malcolm Turnbull will lead the Libs into the 2010 election after making certain promises to the Howard loyalists.)
Can I second that for Malcolm would make a better leader than Lord Nelson
My stuffed turtle would make a better leader than Nelson. I saw him speak at a dinner in Canberra last year. Most of what he said was unexceptionable, but his pomposity and smug self-satisfaction had people barely repressing laughter all the way through. I agree that Turbull will be leader by 2010. I agree that Shorten and Combet will probably be in Cabinet by then, though I’m not sure at whose expense. Gillard knows that no-one from the Left can be Treasurer or Leader so the suggestion of a plot to that effect is silly. Gillard has lots of work to do and she’ll be too busy to plot even if she was so inclined. As Landeryou has pointed out, this is the first time since 1954 that the Right has had an absolute majority in Caucus. The Left have done very well to have Gillard, Tanner, Albanese and Faulkner in senior positions, but that’s all they’ll be getting. Rudd will govern as a centrist before and after 2010 because he is a centrist and he leads a centrist party.
Yes we need a referendum for four-year terms.
The State Governments will be interesting too! It seems to me that the tide should run out on them but the Liberals are just so hopeless (as demonstrated in QLD this week) that it is still quite probable they wont change over in the next three years.
Who will be first to topple? Tasmania or WA?
The WA Libs will have to find a leader who can tie his own shoelaces before they start thinking about winning elections. Does Sir Charles Court have any grandchildren?
Edwared St John: “who will be first to topple?”
ACT, may be small-fry, but they have to start somewhere!
I disagree about Gillard Adam, I think the only way she can become leader is through government. Treasury has been held since 1977 by the “coming man” of the government. Swan quite clearly will not be the next leader of the ALP. To some extent the Treasurer will pick themselves as the most pre-eminent Cabinet minister when or if Swan is removed.
Put it this way if Wayne Swan fell under a bus tomorrow who would have the best claim to the portfolio in caucus? Surely Gillard. And if she is Treasurer then she is the best placed to succeed Rudd as PM. The price may be being seen to leave the left put worth the price?
It may be also that if Gillard is seen to be a success to education and IR that she has the best possible claim. Also remember Swan will be up against Turnbull and may be seen to be “weak” in the portfolio as a result.
Speaking of state leaders, it is the twentieth anniversary of Joh’s fall today. The place has improved out of sight since he left.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/even-socialists-turned-up-to-honour-sir-joh/2007/12/01/1196394692787.html
I think Tassie is going to go the Libs way because of the pulp mill… no one wants a toxic factory in their back yard.
WA will be retained by Labor no doubt, and NSW will probably be lost to the Libs next state election as well.
Queensland is firmly Labor territory for the next 10 years
I guess for the Liberals its very hard to get people to come into parliament for $100K per year and based on the last decade very poor prospects of being in government.
It’s pretty amazing in WA they cant seem to come up with somebody who is passable.
Edward StJohn – what you are forgetting is that Gillard is not electable regardless of her gender she won’t appeal to middle Australia IMHO.
Put it this way, while Gillard may be deputy/acting PM she’ll never be elected to that office, Julie Bishop of the Liberals has a better chance of being elected Prime Minister than Julia Gillard.
After all, who will Tony Abbott back if Nelson falls surely not Malcolm, he and Nelson will probably back Julie Bishop as a compromise candidate.
Edward, you goose, read my lips: Gillard will never be Treasurer or Leader. No-one from the Left can or will ever hold either post, OK? If Swan fell under a bus someone else from the Right would be Treasurer. The next Leader of the ALP will be Burke or Shorten, depending on performance, unless Rudd stays round for long enough for someone new to come along and overtake them. But I suspect Rudd will learn the lesson of Howard and bail out during his third term.
Edward StJohn – I agree with you the State Liberals in WA are a joke as are the State Nationals, until they stop infighting and find a half decent leader they’ll never take back government no matter how bad the Carpenter Government is.
Glen, I’d tend to agree if it wasn’t for the example of Anna Bligh who became Treasurer and then Premier. Don’t be so certain that women of this caliber are unelectable.
Adam, I recall Jim Cairns was treasurer once.
As to the leadership I think both of your contenders were at the very least “iced” in the ministry announcement.
Well steve one must agree that a ‘drovers dog’ could beat the State QLD tories they are just laughable really they IMHO are a disgrace and ought to be ashamed of themselves. I think Newman is just waiting to be beating whenever they hold council elections in Brisbane maybe he can send Flegg a nice thankyou card for being dumped.
We have had female premiers, though they generally haven’t gone so well some by their own fault or because of their predecessor, Lawrence and Kerner come to mind.
Well Glen Gillard could turn out to be another Kirner.
And wasnt Anna Bligh from the Left, in a state which is dominated by the AWU?
ESJ – ‘Shudders’ just thinking about ‘pokadot’ gives me the red ass lol
There is not question she wants to be PM but like Abbott she’s IMHO deluding herself she can be successful in leading a political party on her own.
Edward, that was before the current factional system was formalised. And of course that wonderful experience of a socialist Treasurer is one reason why it won’t happen again. Burke and Shorten have both been given challenging jobs which will broaden their experience, and I’m sure they’ll both do very well. Both are smart enough to know that a leadership change is at least five years away, and that the best thing they do for themselves now is succeed in their portfolios.
[Edwared St John: “who will be first to topple?”
ACT, may be small-fry, but they have to start somewhere!]
I heard that there’s a Liberal putsch on in the Ulludulla Rotary Club.
Given that Howard has handed in his commission and that Rudd is yet to be sworn in who is actually in charge now?
Adam,
If the crazy guy in the SMH can predict the Greens will become the official opposition I am allowed a prediction too. Of course the beauty of predictions is that you come back and think OHMG did I really think that.
IN due season we will see.
[The WA Libs will have to find a leader who can tie his own shoelaces before they start thinking about winning elections. Does Sir Charles Court have any grandchildren?]
Yep, but I wonder if Richard’s adopted Aboriginal daughter Billie may be interested in standing ?
Now THAT would set the cat amongst the pigeons.
Um, the ACT voted 51% Labor and 13% Green last Saturday. I don’t think they’ll be electing a Liberal government any time soon. Stanhope may be a bit weird but he’d have to be exposed as Jack the Ripper to lose an election.
As they say in Queensland “toodles” everyone.
For an election tragic this site has been therapeutic, thank you William.
Thank you everyone for your kind words and unkind words, I have enjoyed them all.
Until the next election season.
Cheers,
EStJ
[Um, the ACT voted 51% Labor and 13% Green last Saturday. I don’t think they’ll be electing a Liberal government any time soon. Stanhope may be a bit weird but he’d have to be exposed as Jack the Ripper to lose an election.]
Stanhope has declared that the ACT will again legislate for homosexual civil unions.
I hope that Rudd declares it a state and / or territory issue.
Incidently, Nelson approves of gay civil unions.
[As they say in Queensland “toodles” everyone.
For an election tragic this site has been therapeutic, thank you William.
Thank you everyone for your kind words and unkind words, I have enjoyed them all.
Until the next election season.
Cheers,
EStJ]
It’s just past 11:30 in S.A., you are ripping me off half an hour.
Howard has not handed in his commission. He will formally resign on Monday morning and then Rudd will be sworn in. As of now Howard is PM with full authority. If WW3 breaks out tomorrow, Howard will be in charge.
Nelson is a turkey, who won’t survive thanksgiving 2008…
Adam, at least Howard will have ESJ back in the ranks to protect us now that his election roster is over.