How’s it swinging

Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.

Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.

26.5 Batman
25.4 Grayndler
24.1 Throsby
23.6 Melbourne
23.3 Wills
22.0 Gellibrand
21.2 Scullin
21.0 Chifley
21.0 Gorton
21.0 Watson
20.0 Port Adelaide
20.0 Sydney
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT)
Mallee 21.6
19.5 Calwell
19.2 Blaxland
18.9 Fowler
18.5 Cunningham
17.0 Reid
16.4 Hunter
15.9 Newcastle
15.8 Lalor
15.6 Denison
15.6 Fraser
15.3 Maribyrnong
15.3 Werriwa
15.1 Shortland
Murray 18.3
O’Connor 16.6
Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP)
Riverina 15.7
14.9 Oxley
13.9 Prospect
13.7 Hotham
13.6 Kingsford Smith
13.5 Capricornia
13.3 Charlton
13.1 Lingiari
12.5 Barton
12.5 Griffith
12.3 Holt
12.0 Rankin
11.8 Canberra
11.2 Banks
Moncrieff 14.4
Curtin 14.3
Bradfield 13.6
Maranoa 13.0
Mackellar 12.6
Parkes 12.4
Mitchell 11.4
Calare 11.3
Farrer 11.3
Fadden 10.4
9.5 Corio
9.5 Fremantle
9.5 Richmond
9.4 Perth
9.2 Jagajaga
Warringah 9.5
Moore 9.3
Barker 9.1
Pearce 9.1
Indi 9.0
8.7 Bruce
8.6 Ballarat
8.6 Lilley
8.6 Lyons
8.5 Adelaide
8.0 Melbourne Ports
Kooyong 8.9
Tangney 8.8
Berowra 8.7
McPherson 8.7
Lyne 8.4
Wide Bay 8.3
Groom 8.1
7.9 Isaacs
7.8 Makin
7.5 Chisholm
7.4 Lowe
7.4 Macquarie
7.2 Parramatta
7.1 Lindsay
7.0 Brisbane
Flinders 7.8
Wannon 7.3
Cook 7.1
6.9 Wakefield
6.1 Brand
6.0 Bendigo
Higgins 6.8
Mayo 6.8
Casey 6.1
5.1 Hindmarsh Forrest 5.8
Gippsland 5.7
Menzies 5.7
Goldstein 5.6
Canning 5.4
North Sydney 5.2
Aston 5.1
4.9 Blair
4.8 Bonner
4.8 Moreton
4.7 Leichhardt
4.6 Kingston
4.5 Franklin
4.1 Dobell
4.1 Eden-Monaro
McMillan 4.9
Greenway 4.6
3.7 Longman
3.5 Dawson
3.1 Forde
Grey 3.9
Ryan 3.8
Wentworth 3.7
Dunkley 3.5
Gilmore 3.4
Hume 3.4
2.6 Flynn
2.4 Page
2.3 Petrie
Boothby 2.9
Fairfax 2.6
Fisher 2.6
1.7 Bennelong
1.7 Deakin
1.5 Braddon
1.4 Hasluck
Hughes 1.8
Kalgoorlie 1.6
Cowan 1.4
Hinkler 1.2
Paterson 1.2
Stirling 1.1
Cowper 1.0
Sturt 1.0
0.9 Bass
0.9 Corangamite
0.8 Solomon
0.5 Robertson
0.4 Herbert
La Trobe 0.5
McEwen 0.5
Macarthur 0.4
Bowman 0.02
Swan 0.02
Dickson 0.01

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

720 comments on “How’s it swinging”

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  1. There is a good deal of anger and resentment among older people that they were largely ignored by both parties in the run up to the election. Given that the proportion of older people in the electorate is increasing inexorably and that their vote will become more and more important, Rudd might usefully think about their needs and wants. It is clear that many older people have gladly supported Rudd for the concern he has shown for thei children and grandchildren, but that gratitude may be quickly dissipated if he appears careless of their influence.

  2. Well, I suspect that given the number of seats won byu the ALP on Green prefereces, in FPTP voting the Liberals would have been returned – despite over 50% of the primary going to either the ALP or the Greens.

    I hardly call that “proper voting”.

  3. Speaking of swings, the Libs will only need just a small 2.7% swing to win the next election. Looks like Rudd will have to stay conservative for his first term. Then again, he’s always been conservative, LOL.

  4. Reba Meagher personifies all that is stuffed about the NSW Branch of the Labor Party and serves as a sobering lesson that Rudd’s “brutal” point last night about reviewing ministers’ performances periodically is absolutely critical to the success of his government.

    Some NSW Federal Labor members get pre-selection due to factional deals or other non-merit criteria. For example, Bob Debus (my local member for many years) was hardly a brilliant Minister in the Carr Government, though better than most of those turkeys, and no doubt he will be considered for a Rudd ministry straight away since he passes the experience test. He might be able to pull off a John Fahey a make some reasonable contribution.

  5. Granny Anny

    If the 2007 Federal Election has taught us anything, it is:

    The. Deputy. Leader. Of. The. Opposition. Doesn’t. Matter.

    I think Julie Bishop would make a good deputy, and the pure politics make sense, as either Turnbull or Nelson would need to keep the WA Libs on side.

  6. 57 LOL

    Labor already have no mandate!

    Wipe the gloss over your lucky win!

    Hehe australia economy # now.
    Australia taken over by PNG 2008

    Almost taken from the north 1941 – coming true in 2008.

    LOL australia.

  7. Maccatas @ 51

    I’ll wait until we’ve got age-based stats before worrying about how many older voters “glady supported Rudd”, since the opinion polls showed Labor’s swings were in the younger and baby-boomer age groups.

    In fact, I’d predict that the “narrowing” during the campaign is greater as you get into the older voter range.

  8. In 1999, the Coalition only needed something like a 0.1% swing to win Government in NSW (they only needed 1 seat I think – Bathurst was on 0.1%).

    Most of the media thought it would be close.

    The result? Mega-landslide to Labor as Kerry Chika-boom! imploded so spectacularly that the seat of Southern Highlands became a cliffhanger…

  9. Aristotle 26

    Quite right my philosophical friend. You said what I was trying to say but much more neatly. Its like a breath of fresh air blowing through a rather fetid swamp.

  10. ‘ave it, I must admit your posts are rather neatly impressionistic.

    In a few words, you can conjure up the braying laugh … the weak chin … the self-satisfied ignorance … the smirky smugness …

    I just wonder why you bother. Got any more likeable characters?

  11. 60 The constant LOL??? Are you on some medication??? Living where you do you’d probably need to.

    Make a break for your health and come and join us in the Peoples Republic of Ruddland 🙂

  12. RE: #41 – “Costa can’t be leader as he would have to move from Legco the lower house. And there is no way the ALP would win a state by-election at the moment. Besides, he is a country member.”

    Yes I remember, he certainly is.

  13. [The factions within the Liberal party are so deep and divided that they can’t mend them.]

    I can’t see the party splitting – too much institutional inertia holding it together. If the extremists take over, though, it’s nice to fantasize about a mass defection by liberals to the Australian Democrats – perhaps the only thing that might revive them now.

  14. William –

    Wonder if you could answer an interesting query that I have.

    If we redistribute booth results back to 2004 election boundaries, would Howard still have lost Bennelong (I’m guessing not)? I recall you did your own calculations following the redistribution so it may be easy for you to reverse engineer these calculations.

    These are the sort of things that keep me awake at night!

  15. Ave It 07, are you a cricket tragic like our former PM? There has been a strong element of tragedy in english cricket in recent times.

    Also, since you are in england, interested in politics, and given the modernity of your views, who is your favourite Minister in Thatcher’s cabinet? Do you expect her to run again? Or are you still worried about that young blighter, Tony Blair?

    For your education, Iceland was the cradle of modern democracy. Why not emigrate?

  16. Surely the key dynamics of this term up to the next election depend on two three things: the credibility of the opposition, the economy and the fights the opposition chose to have with the Govt in the senate.

    The reality is that the Howard Govt did most things poorly. Name a Fed Govt dept or agency that runs well? The economy, Keating’s economy carried them for almost the whole 11 years, aided by fear and racism.

    So long as the economy goes ok and the unions stay under control, in three years time you have a young Govt with energy and passion but without the fear campaign and with any ‘fear of change’ factor in their favour. Economy tanks labor is probably doomed no matter how well they do; unless they can spend the whole three years blaming the previous Govt successfully.

    The opposition generally has a bit of work to do. Do they pick Chris (I just spent an whole election complaining about what Labor did 17 years ago but you can’t talk to me about the Govt I was in a month ago that is history) Pyne who can’t remember workchoices, or Julie who loves it still or robot machine man Robb. Leader seems even harder.

    Then what fights do they pick, or do they leave it to the greens and the other senators to be the trouble makers, hoping they drive the Govt to the left leaving room in the centre?

    Will be lots of fun.

  17. 53

    well the people who voted Labor did not vote the greens

    the people who voted the greens did not vote labor

    labor won the election dispite 6 in 10 people did not vote for them

    I would be pretty upset if I had the highest vote, but becuase other people “swapped preferences” they beat me.

    I do not think it is that bad a system

  18. The factions within the Liberal party are so deep and divided that they can’t mend them. Whether or not that split is along geographical lines (WA Libs split and form their own party) or ideological lines, it must happen if they are to survive in any functional capacity. This is proven by the fact that they are now out of power everywhere.

    ..or.. they could stick together and be back in power in six to fourteen years.

    Which is almost certainly what will happen.

  19. Introducing preferential voting in the UK would be good but also introducing multi-member electorates would mean that the system became proportional which would mean that it was properly democratic. No more pandering to the marginals (if there are a sufficient number of seats per electorate) but campaining and governing for all of the jurisdiction (geographicly anyway). Multi-member electorates would also help Australia.

  20. 83 – we like marginals

    And we like the uk swingometer

    but we miss peter snow (he’s not doing it next time)

    does mia handshin know anything about swingometers……..

  21. dovif

    Bob Brown was running around telling people before the election that you could effectively ‘vote twice’ by voting Green, because you could vote Green and then preference another Party. That is the nature of the system and people are no so dumb as to not appreciate that.

    The ALP was easily the most preferred party both in terms of primary votes and 2PP votes. The Tories lost. Move on.

  22. to Pollio at #71 – If we did un redistribute as you suggested, perhaps JWH would’ve held his seat. But then others such as my own Greenway would’ve fallen. It’s all swings and roundabouts really!

  23. Before we start believing that the end of the Liberal Party is nigh.

    Don’t forget our party was dessimated in 1996 with the loss of 28 seats and a primary vote swing against us of 6.1% (nearly 2% greater than what the Libs copped this election)

    We came back, admittedly it took us 11.5 years, but it would have been 3 years earlier if it had not been for that bipolar lunatic Latham being made Labor Leader.

  24. AM 81

    Quite right. Labor doesn’t even need to dig it up. The Haneef case is still before the courts and Hicks’ gag order expires in early 2008. Both will be acutely embarrassing for Andrews and Ruddock, without a politically directed AFP to protect them.

  25. Multi-member electorates in the lower house would be disasterous.

    One of the great things about Australian democracy is we know on election night who the Prime Minister is.

    Imagine having to negotiate with the Greens to form government? Or Family First?

    Single member electorates means stability, one of the reasons we have such a benign attitude to politics, and a low (physical) casualty rate.

  26. The people who vote Green and preference Labor are saying that they want the Greens but if they can`t have them they`ll have Labor and I think that alot of the Labor voters would prefer the Greens to the the Libs and some would if they understood the levrel of right wingness in modern Labor would prefere the Greens to the Labor.

  27. Aristostle @ 26

    Absolutely right, Rudd isn’t even sworn in and people are getting nervous about losing the next election. How surreal!

    Just watching Mr Rudd on the 7.30 Report last night, two words came to mind: ‘relaxed’ and ‘comfortable’, and so all the nervous nellies should take a nice cup of tea an iced vovo and chill out a bit.

    Watching him raise a few laughs with Kerry while assuredly taking the party through transition to government, I suddenly realised that this guy is headed ultimately to the ranks of international statesman. Rudd looks over the horizon and knows where he wants to go, which is why he never stooped to look down at the little man he defeated, and wasted no time with self glory and indulgent vanquishing of the last government.

    This is the true man of steel, with his eye firmly on the ball. Howard was given that epithet as a reward for the most cringing sycophancy to the mad neoconservative administration in Washington, and he never deserved it. Rudd on the other hand will earn it, every hour of every day.

    From day one Rudd is making his plans to get his government on the ground, among us, and engaged with the real world, and watch him establish Labor as the party of the people, not just of unions or the left. There is a revolution coming, and it has great promise to be a re-engaging of the populace with the process of government rather than what it has become under the Howard years, a resigned apathy and smouldering resentment.

    Instead of playing the caustic partisan games of the last decade, maybe it’s time to accentuate the positive, move on, and mould a new paradigm. It’s time, sieze this moment, Australia has voted for it.

  28. William,

    Thank you for providing this site over the campaign.

    At times it was hard work going through all the posts here – any jewels were buried under too much noisy nonsense. Your tolerance of the silly, the rude and occasionally offensive contributors is understood; it did become easier to skip the consistent no-quality entries.

    But to the true debaters, the writers of considered opinions, thanks to you.

    As I said early in the campaign, ALP in the low eighties was the result expected.
    The number of close seats held on Green preferences will make the 2011(?) election another interesting occasion. (e.g. my electorate Bass, a Green delivery to ALP with previous Liberal member just edged out – despite the pulp mill imbroglio.)

    Now I’m off back to the real job for a couple of years …..

  29. Apologies in advance, but this idea of the `shoe in` seems to have taken hold. It`s all very well to put the boot/slipper/shoe in to someone, but if you think something is a foregone conclusion it`s a shoo in. Ah, that feels better.

  30. 54 Typical British Tory Hubris. My friend it is the French which “cradled” democracy in the modern age. You pommies were scared sh*tl*ss (not uncommon for you cowering lot).

  31. Kirribilli and Aristotle

    I agree, Rudd so far looks better than I’d dare hope. A strong mood of change is in the air, as demonstrated by the Liberals desperate hurry to jettison some of their own policies. The fact that people criticised the campaign for not having enough difference hardly implies that they didn’t want Rudd to make a difference!

    And as for Howard, yes he had the “courage” to promote his own prejudices, while calling anyone with a different view “un-Australian”. Gone but not forgiven.

  32. Soozie #86 – absolutely. Not at all trying to turn this into a “Howard was unlucky” story.

    I just enjoy the historical quirks that occasionally get thrown up like this. I think Andrew Leigh had a paper which showed a few pollies (Beazley was one I think) who would have lost elections had they not been listed in the top spot on the ballot paper.

    The fact that Howard not only lost the election but also lost his seat will (I think) seriously tarnish his legacy [and deservedly so in my opinion 😉 ]

  33. Unless Labor has a disaterous 3 years, I don’t beleive the Libs have any chance in 2010, it is more likely to be worse for the Libs.

    It is obvious the Liberal scare campaign and media bias reduced the swing to Labour, in 2010 it is possible that the full swing will then become realised, without the media bias and a Liberal Party scare campaign based on the past.

  34. AM

    Regarding Labor in 2010, yes not only all of what you said, but more. By then quite a few Liberal pigeons will have come home to roost, including inflation, scandals, and even further adverse impacts from climate change.

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