This post will not be further updated. Results below are not final. For up-to-date results visit the Virtual Tally Room site.
Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Swan, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal candidate Steve Irons 0.1 per cent ahead of Labor incumbent Kim Wilkie. On raw figures from the AEC Wilkie is 0.2 per cent ahead, but Labor had a relatively stronger performance on absent, pre-poll and postal votes in 2004.
Sunday evening. Wilkie appears to be off to a good start on pre-polls, of which about 40 per cent have been counted, although that might be because the votes counted are from the eastern end of the electorate. They have so far divided in a similar manner to the booth votes, increasing Wilkie’s chance of maintaining his slender lead.
Monday 11pm. It appears only rechecking was done today.
Tuesday 4pm. Kim Wilkie’s lead has narrowed from 182 votes to 16 votes after a batch of 992 pre-polls split 579-413 Steve Irons’ way. Irons apparently hit a two-vote lead at one point a little earlier.
Tuesday 11pm. This race has not been made any less heart-stopping by the addition of 2013 postal votes, which have broken 1021-993 Irons’ way so that he is now 12 votes in front. For what it’s worth, there is in fact a small swing so far to Labor on postals compared with 2004, as there has been with pre-polls. If that pattern extends to absent votes, Wilkie will just get up.
Wednesday 11pm. Double blows for Kim Wilkie with the first 1257 of what will be around 6000 absent votes, which have gone 639-618 to Irons, and a further 679 pre-polls, which have gone 391-288. This extends Irons’ lead to 136 votes. Wilkie can take comfort in the knowledge that he gained one vote more than this from provisional votes in 2004, which are yet to be counted. However, he will also need a gentle change in the trend of the remaining absent and postal votes, of which there will respectively be around 5000 and 1000.
Thursday 8pm. Another 983 postal votes counted, and Irons’ lead has widened another 27 votes to 163.
Friday 4pm. Just unearthed a small error in my spreadsheet: Irons in fact leads by 186.
Friday 10pm. Another batch of absent votes has gone against the earlier absent count to further boost Irons’ lead, now out to 239 votes.
Monday 7pm. A sensational late-count development with rechecking of booth votes slashing Irons’ lead from 186 to 34. The driver of this has been the Cloverdale booth, where Wilkie has picked up 74 and Irons has lost 115. I am hearing talk of a miscounted bundle of 100 votes: presumably these were at Cloverdale, and Labor lost 26 votes and the Liberals 15 votes for other reasons. At Beckenham, Labor has lost 20 votes and the Liberals at 25; at Kewdale West it’s been Labor 16 and Liberal 26.
Tuesday 2pm. The first provisional votes have been counted, going 69-52 Wilkie’s way. However, this has been exactly cancelled out by a further 453 postal votes which have broken 235-218 to Irons.
Tuesday 11pm. A double disaster for Wilkie: 1056 absent votes have broken 622-434 Irons’ way, and booth vote rechecking has cost him 107 votes and gained Irons 27. It seems there might have been a misplaced bundle at South Perth Central, where Labor is down 71 and the Liberals up 62. Irons is now 356 votes ahead, and probably home and hosed.
Wednesday 8pm. Labor gains 14 votes from a batch of 1062 pre-polls, but loses 10 from booth re-checking. With only about 700 absent votes to come plus small handfuls of other types, and Steve Irons claiming victory, it might be time to close shop on this post.