The Senate: South Australia

73 comments on “The Senate: South Australia”

1. Sound like a good result 2:2:2.
   More of it I say.
   Hey am I the first to post? Where are the crow eaters?
   Leafletting for Xenophon or something.

2. I hope Penny Wong gets a good job in ministry, a good performer

3. I would love for the non-majors to get 3 seats in SA. The incentive for the SA senators to work as a bloc would be very strong indeed, and that would give SA the balance of power in the senate, probably the first time a state has held the balance in the modern age.

   Ruth Russell would’ve been a kick-ass senator (there’s not enough activists in parliament these days) but sadly the shocking preference deal for the dems means SA is their least likely state after Tasmania.

4. Ruth Russell is just an outrageous candidate. The Dems had some other lad… one with a German-sounding name, who would have been much better (not to mention having some youth appeal).

   Anyone who has heard S H-Y speak would cringe. A radical student activist with a terrible voice (worse than Nettle), and not a looker (not close). A replacement for ‘Tash? Hardly.

5. Oh dear, why do so many people think it’s necessary to raise female politicians’ looks.

   Prediction: ALP: 3, Lib: 2 and either Xenephon or Greens. I’ll go out on a limb and predict Greens.

6. This will have to be the most interesting senate race…

   Go xenephon… should be good shaking it up a little.

7. The point remains that because Xenophon’s preferences split 50-50 between FF and The Greens, and that FF outpolled The Greens in the upper house in the 2006 state election (5.0 – 4.3% primary), there’s surely a bigger chance of FF getting in on the back of X’s preferences. The Greens were pretty much assured a seat until Xenophon’s entry, now they will have to score a big primary vote to do it.

   LETP: Xenophon’s seat is assured. Any non-SA people predicting the outcome not including Xenophon getting a seat will not be taken seriously by anyone in SA.

8. I’m not in SA, but I’m going to stick my neck out and say Xenophon will get 20% of the SA senate vote. I’m always wrong about these things, but hey, it’s three days to go and I’m bored.

9. Prediction: Xenophon will shoe in but won’t have much surplus because a lot of voters won’t be able to find him on the ballot paper. Yes, it’s box S above the line but his name is not alonside it.

10. After hearing Sarah Hanson-Young at a University of Adelaide education forum last week (chaired by Natasha Stott Despoja) alongside the other Senate candidates, Sarah is no Natasha. Ruth R, Nick X and Kate E ran rings around her.

11. As with the Queensland analysis this is very light on the prospects of of a seat being claimed by Family First. Not even a photo, despite the fact that Family First outpolled the Greens and Democrats on primaries in the State election and was the last candidate standing in the 2004 Federal election.

    William I thought you would do better than this. I hope this does not indicate bias in what otherwise is an excellent pseph blog.

    My analysis predicts that Xenephon will take at least half a quota off each of the majors and a reasonable number of votes off the Greens. Half of this will be returned to Family First in preferences.

    Because Labor is polling so strongly in SA, they may well manage to reach their third quota. However if the gap closes, I believe a 2-2-1-1 split, with X and FFP more likely than X and GRN.

    In fact I would rate FFP chances up to 50% and Greens max 30%.

12. Sarah is no Natasha

    She doesn’t have to be.

    I believe somebody posited the scenario of 2 (ALP)-1-1-1-1 (with Family First being the extra 1) a while back – how feasible is it?

    Therapy @ 7 – Wouldn’t the ALP surplus get the Greens over the line over Family First? I doubt the ALP are going to poll below two quotas in SA.

13. KT @ 12

    ALP will not poll below two quotas, but the X factor will most likely ensure that they poll less than three. If they are close enough to three preferences will most likely deliver the third seat. In any case there is little likelihood that the greens will overtake them. The Greens only chance is to feed off the tranferable vote once ALP is elected, but I doubt that this will be sufficient.

    It is possible that a very high X vote may reduce the Libs to less than two quotas, but if they stay there after preferences are distributed, it is likely that Roger Bryson (X2) will take the final seat.

14. This has become very, very fascinating, and pretty much impossible to predict.

    I have a feeling that the final result will end up 2-2-1-1 – and that FF has an excellent chance of snaring that 6th seats.

    First, consider the 2004 federal result. For the purposes of simplicity, I’m leaving out the minor-minor parties, and rounding the results.

    Liberal – 47
    Labor – 35
    FF – 4
    Greens – 7
    Dems – 2.4

    It’s safe to say that the Liberal vote is going to be slashed badly. But it is also interesting to have a look at the state results from last year:

    Liberal – 46 (down 16 from 2002)
    Labor – 37 (up 4)
    Dems – 2 (down 6)
    Greens – 4.3
    FF – 5 (up 1)
    Xen – 21

    So where does that leave us? Well, nobody can predict what Xenophon will get. Not accurately anyway. At a minimum you would think 10%, maximum could be in the 20’s again. It’s unlikely he will grab two seats, but it’s possible.

    What is interesting about the 2006 state result is that despite the Xenophon factor, FF stayed steady at 5%. It is fair to assume that their reputation hasn’t been tainted in the past 18 months, therefore likely to remain steady, if not go up a bit more.

    The state and federal Libs cannot, of course, be compared – the state party being absolutely useless. What it DOES show is that in 2006, only 26% voted for the Liberal Party. Which in turn shows there is a very small population of people who will simply blindly vote Liberal at any turn. Given the competence at the federal level, you would assume that the 2007 result will be much better, but there’s a chance it could collapse to the low 30’s, which is when we reach a fun ballgame.

    I think Labor will stay at about the same primary vote. They might gain a few people, then have a few defect to Xenophon and, to a lesser extent, the Greens. Assume Labor hits 36.

    I think the Liberal vote is going to get hit very hard, thanks to a variation of factors and they will fall down to low 30’s, say 32-35 range. FF might go up a point, as they have run a half decent campaign here (the ad is effective if not full of shit) and this is their home state – maybe give them a couple of points. Xenophon will get around 15.

    The Democrats are finished, they still have no idea what they are doing. Their second, SECOND candidate for the Senate is a young chap who could have inspired people with new ideas and thoughts, instead they chose a 60 year old human rights worker who just by looking at we know will be there for a term before retiring. They genuinely have no idea, the replacement should have been somebody like Despoja, they’ve left it too late not to reinvent themselves.

    So, I think it will be
    Labor – 36 (+1)
    Liberal – 33 (-14)
    Greens – 7 (+.4)
    FF – 6 (+2)
    Xenophon – 15 (+15)
    Dems – 1.5 (-1)

    (I left the rest of the minor parties as they were, giving the Climate Change group half a point, but really none of them have done anything drastic to make me believe they will get a high primary)

    If this result eventuates, then we have 2-2-1-1 – including the Greens. FF end up having .85 of a quota before the Labor Party gets knocked out and give everything to the Greens.

    That post took much longer than expected. Anybody want to haggle over the maths?

15. Like what Michael said.. Ruth Russel.. what were the Democrats thinking.

    She has the warmth of a reptile.

    They should have tried to “hold the line” in SA but blew it from the start with their candidate selection.

    Max Baumann would have been a much better candidate. He always keeps his cool and writes polite replies, even to some of my worst sniping.

    Such as:
    http://www.upperhouse.info/Extras/DemCountdown.aspx

16. Ray, you can’t rate FF at 50% and the Greens at 30%

    The Greens will get MORE preferences from minor parties, and their best chance is that they get a swagload of votes from the ALP third quota – which will probably be higher than that of the Liberals. The best chance FF has is that they get a high primary, and that the Liberal’s third quota falls just short of what they get.

    I give it 65-35 in favour of the Greens.

    Having said that, I would be interested to hear your analysis of the primaries before going any further?

17. hahaha

    Mr Speaker @ 15 – great minds…?

18. looking like chapman is gone and good riddance, not keen on time wasters everyone i know is backing x in the senate because he gets off his bum and works for the people and the state

19. It is a mistake to read too much into the state results.

    We have one of the more pathetic branches of the Liberal Party at the state level here – which seems to me to reinforce Labor as the “only” choice and under-state the level of Greens support at a federal level. My perception is that people here don’t tend to consider the Greens much in a non-federal context.

    As such I think you can expect the Greens level of support to mirror the national trend, rather than the state election trend. They should absorb plenty of disaffected Democrat voters too.

    However, no-one seems that clear on the Xenophon preferences situation. William’s analysis continues to suggest that Xenophon is a good thing for the Greens, but my understanding was also that he has split his preferences 50:50, with practical considerations (Greens are on the “A” preferences or something) meaning a slight bias towards the Greens in reality. Is this correct?

    God help us if we get a Family First senator, Xenophon will be embarrassing enough…

20. Patrick, rest assured I am not looking that much into the state result. I only mentioned it to show that FF’s support held up (ie supporters didn’t necessarily swing to Xenophon) and that there isn’t a massive block of ‘vote Liberal every time’ supporters in SA.

    Essentially with Xenophon’s preferences, if we discount the Dems,
    – half his votes will go to the Greens,
    – the other half goes to FF.

    Once one gets knocked out, the votes will go to the other party. If they last long enough, one of them will get the entirety of Xenophons left over quota. If BOTH get knocked out, then the battle is between the major parties anyway and Labor will probably clinch it on Green preferences.

    I imagine William simply thinks that FF won’t feature long enough to be any sort of credible threat. That depends on one fact and one alone: whether their primary is above the Liberal third quote percentage when push comes to shove. If no, that’s the ball game, if yes then we keep playing.

21. Max #16,

    What Women Want, LDP, Socialist Alliance and CCC are the only minors putting green ahead of FF. ALL the others are preferencing FF ahead of Green. Xenophon’s prefs don’t matter, as they split 50/50.

    I see another case of FF getting in with 3-4% of the vote here, and I don’t like it. I fell obligated to agree with Ray @11 – FF will get over the line before the Greens do.

22. Anyone want some free money ?

    http://www.portlandbet.com

    Minor Party Senate Seats: South Australia
    One or More $1.15

    15% return on investment in one week – it doesn’t get better than that.

23. The fight between FF and The Greens is very interesting, and it’s great to read the opinions here so far. I think we can/should all agree that Xenophon entering has hurt The Greens. FF are very strong in SA and most of their votes come from Fundies who are unlikely to shift away to X, whereas many soft-left voters may go for X instead of the Greens because of their drugs policy, bad candidate, etc. So I think FF’s primary will be a solid 5%, whereas the Greens could get anywhere from 4-7% depending on how many people choose X over them.

    Antony Green’s calculator is a lot of fun. I think inputting realistic figures makes a 3Lab-2Lib-1X result most likely. The collapse of the Dem’s vote will be another nail in the coffin of the Greens’ chances.

24. 22
    The Speaker

    The trap there is “minor party”. X doesn’t have a party, he’s an independent. So I’m going to have to read the terms and conditions very closely before putting a bet on!

25. Just read the fine print. All kosher. Putting my bet on now! Sorry for spamming!

26. Yep, for any lazy but interested people:

    “For the purposes of this market, “Minor Party” refers to all candidates not listed as Liberal-National or Australian Labor Party candidates. “

27. What Women Want, LDP, Socialist Alliance and CCC are the only minors putting green ahead of FF. ALL the others are preferencing FF ahead of Green. Xenophon’s prefs don’t matter, as they split 50/50.

    I think ALP surplus + Green preferencing pointless micros > Libs surplus + other pointless micros. I don’t think the FF and Greens primary will be significantly different. I still think the 6th SA Senate seat is likely going to be either Greens or a third ALP seat.

28. Mathew Cole at #21

    *cough*hack*cough* Democrats. Not going to be dumb enough to preference FF again.

29. The Democrats have long been silly with their preference deals -I remember one of my relatives going into a polling booth in 1998 intending to vote for the Democrats and then seeing how high they were preferencing One Nation in comparison to the Greens. The relative in question changed his vote to the Greens and hasn’t looked back since

    Linda Kirk was probably unwise not to have gone for the consolation prize of Boothby -she’d probably be in there with a better chance than the current Labor candidate.

    Xenephon should be an interesting dimension as an Independent Senator -was looking at his homepage and he seems not to be as right-wing as I had initially imagined. In fact some of his ideas seemed more inclined to the centre-left than the right. Then again, I don’t live in SA and will happily admit that I’m not as familiar with him as perhaps others on this forum are

30. William

    I concur with Ray and Therapy here. I thought your last omission of Jeff Buchanan in the QLD race was a mistake. This South Australian “commentary” has made me think that this close to an election, William, maybe even your colours (or bias against a party) might even be showing.

    You have political tragics here, some who spend hours ploughing Antony’s Senate calculators. All these people, including yourself, know that even plugging in some available figures from last election and recent polling, FFP candidates win in Qld and often win in SA.

    I agree with Ray as well regarding primaries. FFP outpolled BOTH Greens and Dems and not even so much as a photo!!!

    People all talk “surprise” when FFP gets in and yet there has not been a single election since 2002 at ANY level that hasn’t seen improvements in every state they run. 2004 FFP was “blacked out” by the media, it has happened again in 2007. Antony’s last media item for Steve Fielding is more than a week old and the Courier Mail in QLD has now run 4 senate articles with not so much as a mention of Jeff Buchanan, who looks like taking a FIFTH spot, forget sixth.

    Now Tony Bates stands a better chance than Sarah Hanson Young and no available data shows us otherwise. Xenophon increases FFPs chances here and may not even get in himself.. 20% is pure fantasy here.

    How about some balance.. At LEAST a photo mate!!!

31. Maybe it’s the numbers I’m running, or my own bias showing through, but I’m finding it a lot easier to elect SH-Y, or both Hanson-Young and Bates, than Bates without SH-Y on Antony’s calculator. It may be that I’m not giving the right-wing groupuscules enough credit, or the Greens too much—but it boils down to the fact that FF don’t just need to beat the Greens on primary votes, they need to beat the Greens and the Dems *added together*, and hope that Nick X’s surplus isn’t too big (if it is, it’s likely FF preferences will get distributed before his do). It’s a possibility, but 3 ALP-2 LIB-Nick X is the usual outcome.

32. Yep, FF are headed for 1 possibly 2 senate seats this election (maybe more) and yet nobody is talking about it.

33. without Labor’s preferences,and with Climate Change and Water issues resonating, FF are dead in the water this election.

    the only ones who don’t see that are FF supporters.

    William acknowledges this and doesn’t need carping at his integrity by the same old posters.

    FF’s Senate primary vote will fall in every state.

34. 2-2-X-G. Done deal, imho.

35. Although I think the likely outcome is 3-2-1(X), FF are in with more of a chance than the Greens. Their primary vote has been in free fall decline all year with all pollsters. Although Bob Brown has been given plenty of air time through this campaign and may have recovered some ground for them.

    Sportingbet were offering 4:1 on a FF candidate being elected to the Senate. If you add Tony Bates’ chances with the FF chances in Qld and Vic, this represents a bargain !

36. May I ask what major party votes people are using for their analyses ?

    The Liberals beat Labor by 12% in 2004.

    Some of you seem to be indicating that Labor will beat the Liberals on primary vote ? I find this very doubtful, even factoring in the Nick-X-Factor.

    Do you think the swing against the government will be 7% or more ?

37. Ray and Generic Oracle, I did re-do the Queensland entry to correct the omission of Family First, who I think are a real chance there (see here). If someone can paint a realistic scenario where FF wins a seat in SA – I admit that I have not been spending the past few weeks punching out Senate scenarios – please lay it out for me.

38. 38: Lab
    34: Lib
    5.5: FF
    5: Greens
    1.4: Dem
    14: X
    +dregs

    Gives 2-2-X-FF

39. The Speaker: I would expect if Labor wins the Lower House TTP that they will poll higher in the Senate also. 2004 was disastrous for Labor in SA in both houses. The 2006 state election was 36.6 Labor – 26 Lib in the upper house. I know state doesn’t translate to federal directly, but it’s a good guide to “willingness” to vote for particular parties.

40. William, are these numbers realistic ?

    Liberal Party 34.45%
    Australian Labor Party 32.25%
    Group S (Xenophon) 14.98%
    The Greens 5.99%
    Family First Party 4.34%
    Australian Democrats 2.39%
    One Nation 1.14%
    D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party 0.60%
    Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party 0.60%
    Liberty and Democracy Party 0.50%
    Climate Change Coalition 0.50%
    What Women Want 0.50%
    Australian Shooters Party 0.50%
    National Party 0.40%
    Christian Democratic Party 0.35%
    Citizens Electoral Council 0.20%
    Socialist Alliance 0.13%
    Senator On-Line 0.10%
    Group B Independents 0.10%

41. I’ve certainly seen worse, Mr Speaker. I might make a change to the Senate guide to talk up Family First slightly more, if I get time (which I probably won’t).

42. Mr Speaker: those are interesting numbers which highlight FF’s chances if the Libs outpoll Labor. If people want to go to Rudd for a change of Government but keep the Libs in for “checks and balances”, that could be quite likely.

43. Those numbers still indicate a 2PP win for Labor on prefs.

    It’s very hard to tell how much vote Nick-X will suck from each party. A bit of a lottery really.

    Have a look at my “desertion rates” from 2006:
    http://www.upperhouse.info/ArchiveView.aspx?EntryHeadId=35

44. How are those results above achievable or even semi-realistic?

    you are predicting FF to rise from 3.98 to 4.48

    and greens to fall from 6.60 to 5.59.

    all this with a swing against the Conservative parties and the rise of Green issues. FF have done nothing to think that their vote will increase.

    you are also predicting a higher Coalition Senate vote than Labor in a seat that has clearly swung against the Coalition. With the Coalitions “percieved/actual” abuse of the Senate there is no way the Coalition will outvote Labor in the Senate in SA.

45. 5.99 that should read

46. Mr Speaker: yes I have been assuming ALP will do better than Libs in the Senate.
    A 6% swing brings them to equilibrium. Polls have been showing a swing to Labor in SA of up to 12%. Add to that the Save our Senate campaign by Getup, and the perceived abuse of the Senate processes by the coalition.

    If the swing is this high then ALP will certainly get 3 seats and lock out the other minors. But just on the red side of the equilibrium there are a whole range of possibilities that favour FFP. (See my quilt).

    Ironically, the push by Getup to a progressive Senate favours the election of FFP over a Green. The higher the Labor vote, the more it starves the Greens.

47. I would think that Liberals jumping ship would be inclined to vote FF in the Senate, as its not going away from Labor, but its still.. not Liberal. I’d tip them at 6-7% in SA.

    It’ll be remarkable if they do get someone in though. Another “unexpected’!

48. Michael , just because people are Liberals doesn’t mean they approve of religious fundamentalists.

    i would assume that the defecting Libs would be more of the “wet” variety, not the drys.

    Ff vote will stagnate or drop.

    Green vote in the Senate will no doubt increase fairly dramatically because of Climate Change and Water.

    I predict in Vic,NSW and WA they will almost get a quota on primaries alone.

    In SA and QLD they will still quite comfortably get a seat.

    2001 and 2004 were the right circumstances for a FF vote.They have reached their peak and Fielding was a one off Labor mistake.

    2007 is the right circumstances for a significant Green vote.

49. HarryH

    I don’t think your commentary would garner a lot of support around here. I’ve seen not one shred of evidence that the FFP primary has declined since last time and no Greens polling is showing much higher than the last national 7%. A lot of polling (unreliable as it is) shows Greens flatlining at 5-6%.

    Most people here are tending to ignore the impact of micros as well. Antony’s lists aren’t comprehensive on these and if you look at preference flows, about 2:1 flow right of centre, which FFP is at the top of. Therefore a smaller primary than Greens will deliver the seat.

50. I’m predicting 3 Labor, 2 Coaltion, 1 Xenophon. His “Nobody’s puppet” advert is hilarious -does anyone know if it is available for viewing online?

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