Steaming hot off the press: a Roy Morgan phone poll of 435 voters conducted last night (that’s a couple of hours ago at the time of writing), covering the Perth marginals Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. The result of 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Liberals points to a tiny swing in their favour of 0.8 per cent. To allow direct comparison with Morgan’s national poll of marginals on the weekend, a result for Stirling and Hasluck has been hived off from the other three. It shows that the respondents surveyed in these seats generated the overall swing to the Liberals, with the others moving slightly to Labor. For what it’s worth, the Stirling and Hasluck result was replicated in the similarly small sample survey on the weekend.
At this stage, I’m going to feel content to wait for judgment day.
William, any comment?
“How the West was won”
Hmm, I wonder if the Hasluck result is due to the Front Page of yesterday’s West,which had a story on the CFMEU requesting access to the BGC Brickworks site to “poach workers” ?
So (and correct me if I’m wrong) – that would deliver Swan and Cowan, meaning Labor needed 18 to get over the line, or around 52%. Looks doable.
Yet, one would not gain the same impression, listening to the ABC’s Bush Telegraph.
Tuesday, and over time.
Qualitative chats with informed observers and locals.
#4: Unless you take seriously the Stirling/Hasluck versus Brand/Swan/Cowan breakdown, which points to a Labor swing in the latter three.
Yeah, a slightly larger sample than Westpoll – take it with a Mine of salt 🙂
Hmm so why the insider talk about Hasluck being in the bag..
8 Mad Cow
Because people are getting way too far ahead of themselves
MOE on each seat is around 11%, and on sample as a whole is 4.5%. No real major conclusions to be made.
Frank: Yeah, with a MoE of about 4.7%, there isn’t enough salt in the world. Despite seas full of it covering 2/3 of the earth’s surface.
Unless some serious polling gets done here we’ll just have to wait for Saturday.
Just heard a repeat on news, of Barnaby Choice, about the Messiah Rudd.
Same how droll, as this poll.
Off topic, but I’m curious…
The Hun has this story on the Lib legal attempt to nobble the ALP candidates…
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22794368-661,00.html
It says in part: “The Herald Sun confirmed the Liberal Party claims were the result of website searches and didn’t involve checks with any of the government authorities. ”
The ABC (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2096105.htm) earlier had this:
“The Liberal Party has released legal advice showing 13 Labor candidates are potentially ineligible to stand for election.”
So who was the lawyer, and what was the legal firm, that issued advice under his/her/its name, that was based on an apparent misreading of some old websites? What is that firm’s advice worth now?
re Front Page of Tuesday’s West re Hasluck, here is Alston’s cartoon on the subject.
http://www.thewest.com.au/getfile.aspx?Type=image&ID=128324&ObjectType=3&ObjectID=89520
[So who was the lawyer, and what was the legal firm, that issued advice under his/her/its name, that was based on an apparent misreading of some old websites? What is that firm’s advice worth now?]
It’s this mob 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/welcher/default.htm
If WA marginals such as Stirling allow the Libs to get over the line, in the face of a significant swing everywhere else, the only democratic solution would be for WA to secede from the federation. Let the West Australians have Liberal rule if they wish. We’ll even throw in a free Ben Cousins if you still want him.
Frank@14 No, it’s just Andrew Robb, who used to run the Libs’ election campaigns, getting frustrated about the incompetence of the current management.
Andrew Robb, BTW, is in Goldstein, which is not invulnerable. He’s also the genius who made sure that the term ‘multicultural’ was deleted from the website of what used to be called the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs. Oh, and he devised the Citizensh*t Test (In what year was Phar Lap born?)
I can only take a deep, deep satisfaction from the knowledge that if the sea level rises, people like him will be the first to go.
Mumble Predicts 30 seat Landslide to Labor.
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/audio/mp3/20071120-landslide.mp3
It’s just the inexperienced (incompetent) ABC journalists again, as so often in the past, indulging in sloppy journalism. They take a handout from a political party (in this case from Andrew Robb) and treat it as fact without any research. But it cuts both ways.
Write your story. Job done!
Seen it time and time again. Pathetic.
Quoting from the Morgan site:
“The Greens vote of 9.5% is particularly high — using past elections as a guide, this Greens vote will most likely come down on election day. Preferences of Greens voters went 68% ALP, 32% Liberal.”
In these five key WA seats, Liberal primary support is 44%, ALP 42.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 1% and Independent/Others 3%.
Unclear to me how the Green preference distribution was determined but 68/32 seems unlikely to me. Giving the Greens a more logical 80/20 and the ‘others’ 25/75 it seems more like 51/49 to ALP.
Is there something odd about Green voters in WA that 32% of them would preference the Libs?
Oh well, only a few more days to go now to find out what all these polls mean. I still think WA is, at best, no seats lost for the ALP.
The Happy Revolutionary@15 – what a great idea! Maybe Tasmania could be thrown in as well in a Gaza/West Bank type scenario? (although it must be said that except for the Mersey business, our souhern cousins have managed not to cock up too badly this time around).
Doesn’t Morgan have the resources for a decent sample size?
For what it’s worth, I think the ALP will only win one seat in WA – Hasluck
16 Jenny,
I can only take a deep, deep satisfaction from the knowledge that if the sea level rises, people like him will be the first to go.
lol
Perhaps we can start lining them up on the beach now, Ratty, Smirk, Dolly, Toad etc
Looks like its all over – oh well.
Looking at the numbers the Lib marginals have swung to Coalition by 4.1% since 2004 whilst the ALP marginals have swung to ALP by 1.6% since 2004. On that basis, nothing will change – neither Coalition or ALP will gain seats from each other. Which means it comes down to the eastern states – doh!
maybe i’m scarred by the failure of too many dashed false hopes that the australian public might be tempted by something higher than $500 in the back pocket on election eve, but it amazes me to read the calm ease with which you all seem to assume the vicious runt will not be voted back in as the emblem and soul of those he represents.
these wa figures are the miracle. the worst human being to ever hold the highest office in the land will walk away in 6 years time as its greatest ever prime minister.
just think. workchoices 2, 3 and beyond. the end of land rights. a slave class of imported labour. no action on the environment. increasing homelessness. hospitalization of the elderly. criminalization of the insane. the worst overseas aid record in the developed world. institutionalized xenophobia. more kow-towing to the usa. it’s just the beginning.
a sad indictment of this vermin infested hole of a country.
nice scenery but. shame about the people.
Surely the inclusion of Brand (held by ALP with a margin of 4.7%) skews the result heavily towards the ALP.
I had previosly discounted Morgan’s wacky state by state figure last week, but maybe I need to re-visit.
This is a welcome surprise
This is clear evidence that the WA marginals are going to record a zero or slight swing to Libs; this is in line with other polling by Westpoll, Galaxy, etc. Yet despite that, there seems to be an overall swing to Labor of around 4% in the West. It may be that the Libs will do well in the marginals, but lose safer seats, such as Canning, which was blown out too much at the last election.
From a Labor point of view, we’ve got to have this won before the West starts counting. The good news is that a swing to Libs in the West means there’ll be a greater swing to Labor in the other states. In the Morgan marginals poll on Sun, if you exclude the 2 West marginals, the overall swing to Labor in all other states’ marginals would be around 8.5%, in very good agreement with Newspoll’s marginal survey, and symptomatic of a crushing landslide in the Eastern states.
Supposedly, Brand is more marginal than the current margin suggests. Beazley retiring may have something to do with it.
The only seats I’m going to count on from WA are Perth and Fremantle, so hopefully Labor will get 78 from everywhere else.
Just for info
Courier mail online poll results so far:
Who will you vote for on November 24?
Labor
32% (6778 votes)
Liberal
58% (12263 votes)
National
3% (636 votes)
Greens
3% (799 votes)
Democrats
0% (72 votes)
Independent
0% (120 votes)
Other minor party
0% (97 votes)
Undecided
1% (298 votes)
Sum votes:
Total votes: 21063 votes so far
Labor doesn’t need WA thank God. Seems like they are on another planet over there. I am sure the swing to Labor will come, but in about 3 elections time.
WA would only matter in a close election, which judging by the polling in the rest of the country, this will not be.
Still, I agree, we can’t be conclusive about any of this anyway. I think polls have done their work for this election – it’s time to wait patiently for the real poll.
Calm down children. The election will be declared well before WA stops voting, let alone the votes there are counted.
Those with long memories will recall that Whitlam won in ’72 while still losing two seats in the west, Forrest and Stirling. And that election was much closer than this one will be.
On this occasion Labor will hold its seats and win Hasluck.
Bilko – Looks rooly trooly scientifik!
BTW Anyone else having trouble accessing the ABC
For you Centaur, myself, and any others who are interested. Astrological transit analysis for Howard and Rudd for the period 2 days either side of election day – a 5 day period TH to MO. I have calculated what they are and summarized explanations of them from the book “Planets In Transit” by Robert Hand. Therefore, these are NOT my words, they are Robert Hand’s words
*****
Howard:
“This is a good time to make an impression upon someone, if you need to, but do not use this energy for ruthless or selfish purposes. If you do, you will set into action powerful and hard-to-resist forces that will try to drag you down. Examine matters that have not worked out so well and perhaps cut your losses and prepare for a new start. If you haven’t taken a new tack, don’t waste time with regrets but put all your energies into clearing up the remains and salvaging what you can. This is not a very good day for performing any task that requires great clarity and attention to precise detail. You will not feel like doing it, and if you do, it will not turn out very well. At its worst, this transit will make you feel scattered , undisciplined and nervous. Do not attempt tasks that require great discipline today because you won’t be able to maintain it. You will become restless and start making mistakes.”
Rudd:
“You will be able to work very effectively with others right now, and your goals and objectives will harmonize wth those of the people you associate with. Examine how far you have gotten in realizing the goals that you have set for yourself this year. This is an excellent time to accomplish all kinds of work. Your energy is high and you have faith in your ability to achieve. This influence is extremely favorable for all kinds of physical activity. You are able to work well with others now too, because your ego energies are well balanced. You may unknowingly create for yourself an opportunity to take control or authority over others, to be a leader. You will derive satisfation from those aspects of yourself that prove themselves by being challanged today. These are the parts of your life that you are handling well; they will be a source of strength in the future. This is an excellent transit for all kinds of mental work, especially if you have to plan a future course of action with decisiveness and firmness. You will be in a positive mood and have great confidence in your position, which will enable you to make a positive impression and probably convince people of your point of view.”
Rgee
agreed most online polls have the same smell, all you need is whatever party faithfull available is to keep voting like the old adage vote early and often
Julie, that’s gold.
Almost cheered me up about losing the WA seats. Not quite though.
What are they smoking over there in Wah?
My handy MoE calculator tells me that the MoE on a sample of 435 is 4.7%.
Like Seajay, I am also somewhat surprised by a preference flow of 68-32 from Greens to ALP. If you allow a flow of 75:25 from Greens to ALP/Lib, a flow of 80:20 in favour of the Libs from One Nation, and 50:50 for the ‘other’ vote you get ALP/Lib 2PP of 51.3:48.7.
Preferences may or may not flow in particular ways but like the Advertiser’s Boothby poll this Morgan one doesn’t seem terrific.
muk0le – in moments of despondency look at Possum’s regressions. They are the tonic for whatever ails you!
Robb now says a hung parliament
“Coalition minister Andrew Robb is predicting there could be a hung parliament after Saturday’s election.”
Julie – the planets are clearly in alignment (or whatever!). Well done!
Am looking up my ancient history books this morning to see whether any (non-violent) Roman divination methods might be available to supplement the Morgan analysis.
Hung out to dry
Robb now says a hung parliament
“Coalition minister Andrew Robb is predicting there could be a hung parliament after Saturday’s election.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/21/2096466.htm
Without wishing to be gratuitously insulting, Robb is a tool, par excellence.
Well if we don’t win Stirling and Hasluck there will be a bitter taste in my celebratory drinks … of course if we don’t win at all there will be a many more bitter drinks … so for my health vote for labor in Hasluck and Stirling …
Prediction: Liberal hold Stirling and Hasluck, Labor to lose Cowan but gain ground in Canning.
jasmine, prepare your drinks, I think there’s next to no chance of Labor winning both Stirling and Hasluck.
And I am starting to get a little annoyed by the regurgitation of press statements which passes for news at the ABC these days. Who gives a rat’s bottom what Robb thinks about anything? The retailing of that nonsense about ALP candidates being ineligible was simply nonsensical – backed up by nothing more substantial than something along the lines of ‘if my grandmother had had b*lls he’d be my grandma’. After that, he deserves to be treated with contempt.
Oh well, three more sleeps.
Yes LTEP Glen has been saying that all year. I can think of no factor that would make that a reasonable outcome, and all the results I think, bar one Westpoll have been margin of error. I understand Adam and others two swings; and I understand that the mortgage belt may well be more conservative and reluctant for change.
Stirling I’ve always said should be demographically harder but the liberal member is just a pathetic joke and Peter such an excellent candidate; but Adam will say that is a nothing.
Oh well still think the more likely outcome based on all the WA breakdowns is Labor taking both – you are still suggesting a worse result under Rudd than under Latham, if that is the case then there is something very very very wrong with the Latham analysis – at least as it pertains to WA.
If at first you don’t secede try try again.
jasmine, for what it’s worth I’d completely ignore the Westpoll results taken in the seats. Westpoll, on average, overestimated the Coalition’s 2PP by over 6% in seat-by-seat polling in the 2005 state election.
I think it’ll be close in Cowan and Swan and they could just hang on. However, I think Stirling is an extremely unlikely gain for the ALP. I’m not completely counting out Hasluck… but on the basis of all the polling I don’t think they’re going to make it. My sister’s boyfriend believes Labor will win Hasluck (he’s a Hasluck voter) and my sister will be voting for Liz Prime (Cowan) but I think if Labor can’t woo back votes in their heartland (Girrawheen and surrounds) they’ll be in trouble.
That WA size sample is laughable.
Also hope everyones had their breakfast, Costello is putting on a tough guy act on 3LO. Something he didnt ever manage to do to the mental octogenarian and physical centarian above him.
Yeah, big tough guy.
Julia G is late, but she’s coming on!!!!!
There is no evidence Cowan and Swan wouldn’t be close they are tight marginal seats but the key State wide voting intention shows they are easy retains. There is no explanation in WA for any swing against Labor.
The WA loves work choices is an insane argument, although having gone into and out of Courts WPA’s and then back into a reasonable system with Gallop all during a mining boom that has gone on paying no attention to industrial relations at all might make some WA voters underestimate the evil danger of Worstchoices. But at best that should be a neutral.
Only the interest rate fear campaign biting again would make any sense, and Hasluck and Stirling voters surely aren’t stupid enough to fall for Howard’s transparent lie a second time.