Wheel of fortune

I’m part way through my review of the Senate preference tickets, starting with the easy states first. Antony Green will post Senate calculators at the ABC tomorrow, which will make life easier. The lists below show where your above-the-line vote will really go, by stripping away the obfuscations by observing only the candidates that matter (i.e. third on the ticket for the majors, first for everybody else).

South Australia: Nick Xenophon makes this a very hard situation to read. Xenophon himself looks all but certain to win a seat, either off his own bat or after overtaking the Greens and absorbing their preferences. At the state election last February he polled 20.5 per cent, which won his ticket a second seat and could almost do so again if he repeats it this time. However, the Greens are likely to present too big a hurdle after absorbing preferences from Labor, the Climate Change Coalition and the Socialist Alliance. It will then remain to be seen whether Xenophon’s surplus is enough to put the Greens ahead of a major party, and on to a quota with their preferences. That would produce a result of two seats each to Labor and Liberal, plus one to Xenophon and one to the Greens. The other possibility is that right-wing preferences deliver the final seat to the Greens or, more likely, that Greens preferences give it to Labor. There doesn’t seem to be any prospect of a micro party upset, as too much of the micro-party vote will go to the Greens.

ONE NATION: Shooters; Family First; LDP; Lifestyle; Nationals; DLP; CEC; Liberal; CDP; Xenophon; Labor; Greens; Democrats; SA; WWW; CCC
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: Nationals; One Nation; Lifestyle; Family First; Shooters; DLP; Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; CCC; CEC; WWW; LDP; SA; Democrats; Greens
FISHING AND LIFESTYLE: Family First; Shooters; LDP; One Nation; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; CCC; CDP; DLP; WWW; CEC; SA; Xenophon; Democrats; Greens
SHOOTERS: Lifestyle; One Nation; CDP; Family First; Nationals; DLP; Liberal; CCC; CEC; WWW; Labor; LDP; Xenophon; Democrats; Greens
GREENS: CCC; WWW; Democrats; Xenophon; SA; Labor; LDP; Lifestyle; DLP; Nationals; CEC; Shooters; CDP; One Nation; Family First; Liberal
NATIONALS: Family First; Liberal; Xenophon; CDP; DLP; Shooters; Lifestyle; CCC; Greens; WWW; Democrats; Labor; LDP; CEC; SA; One Nation
DLP: Labor; Liberal; CDP; Family First; Nationals; Xenophon; Shooters; Lifestyle; LDP; One Nation; Democrats; CCC; WWW; Greens; CEC; SA
LIBERAL: Family First; Nationals; CDP; Lifestyle; Shooters; Xenophon; Democrats; LDP; DLP; WWW; CCC; Greens; SA; Labor; CEC; One Nation
WHAT WOMEN WANT: Greens; Democrats; SA; Labor; CCC; DLP; CDP; Lifestyle; Shooters; Liberal; Family First; LDP; Xenophon; One Nation; Nationals; CEC
LABOR: Greens; Democrats; Xenophon; Family First; DLP; Shooters; CCC; WWW; Lifestyle; LDP; SA; Nationals; Liberal; CDP; CEC; One Nation
CLIMATE CHANGE COALITION: Greens; Democrats; WWW; SA; Xenophon 1; Labor; DLP; Lifestyle; Liberal; Nationals; One Nation; LDP; Family First; Shooters; Xenophon 2; CDP; CEC
CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL: Liberal; Nationals; Democrats; CDP; One Nation; Lifestyle; Shooters; Xenophon; Family First; WWW; DLP; SA; Labor; CCC; LDP; Greens
SOCIALIST ALLIANCE: Greens; WWW; Labor; Democrats; CCC; Xenophon; Liberal; Nationals; LDP; DLP; Lifestyle; Shooters; Family First; CDP; CEC; One Nation
DEMOCRATS: CCC; WWW; Greens; half (Xenophon; Liberal; Nationals; Labor), half (Labor; Xenophon Nationals; Liberal); Family First; SA; One Nation; LDP; DLP; Lifestyle; CDP; Shooters; CEC
FAMILY FIRST: Nationals; One Nation; Lifestyle; Shooters; DLP; CDP; CEC; CCC; Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; LDP; WWW; SA; Democrats; Greens
LIBERTY AND DEMOCRACY PARTY: One Nation; Lifestyle; Shooters; WWW; CEC; CCC; DLP; Liberal; Nationals; Greens; Democrats; CDP; Family First; Xenophon; Labor; SA
NICK XENOPHON: half (Greens; Democrats; Family First), half (Family First; Greens; Democrats); WWW; CCC; Nationals; DLP; CDP; Lifestyle; half (Labor; Liberal), half (Labor; Liberal); SA; Shooters; LDP; CEC; One Nation.

Tasmania: By far the most likely result in Tasmania is Labor 3, Liberal 2 and Greens 1. One alternative scenario involves the Liberal vote not falling as much as expected (from 46.1 per cent in 2004), so they are able to scrape together three quotas (42.9 per cent) after preferences from the DLP, Citizens Electoral Council and Family First. That would leave Bob Brown and the third Labor candidate squaring off for the final seat, with Brown the overwhelming favourite. The Greens as ever are hopeful of winning a second seat, their number two candidate being the high-profile Andrew Wilkie. The Greens vote in 2004 was 13.3 per cent – this should be a few per cent higher this time due to Bob Brown’s personal vote and the Gunns pulp mill falllout, and will be supplemented by preferences from What Women Want, the Liberty and Democracy Party and three independents. If that pushes them near 20 per cent, they might have enough in excess of a 14.3 per cent quota to get ahead of one of the major parties’ third candidates. However, this requires optimistic assumptions at both ends of the equation, and even if it comes off the remaining major party might win get the final seat off preferences from Family First and the DLP. Family First very nearly managed a boilover at the Greens’ expense in 2004, but this time they don’t have Labor preferences.

WHAT WOMEN WANT: Greens; Labor; DLP; Family First; Liberal; LDP; CEC
GREENS: WWW; LDP; Labor; DLP; CEC; half Family First, half Liberal
LABOR: Greens; LDP; WWW; DLP; Family First; Liberal; CEC
DLP: Family First; Liberal; Labor; LDP; WWW; CEC; Greens
LIBERAL: Family First; DLP; LDP; CEC; WWW; Greens; Labor
LIBERTY AND DEMOCRACY PARTY: WWW; DLP; CEC; Family First; Greens; Labor; Liberal
CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL: Liberal; WWW; DLP; LDP; Family First; Labor; Greens
FAMILY FIRST: DLP; LDP; Liberal; Labor; CEC; WWW; Greens

New South Wales: A few preliminary thoughts here. As discussed by Ben Raue in comments, there are three micro parties that could theoretically harvest enough preferences to overtake the third Coalition candidate and win the seat on their preferences: the Climate Change Coalition, the Carers Alliance and the Fishing Party, probably in that order of likelihood. However, it’s more likely that the assumptions in my earlier overview still hold, and that the issue will be whether the Greens can win a seat by overtaking the third Coalition candidate, Marise Payne.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

120 comments on “Wheel of fortune”

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  1. 97
    Matt Says:
    November 5th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
    Sorry Julie, as I said on the other thread that was my mistake. But you can just create another email address at a place like Hotmail and use it to register…that goes for you also Adam

    I am ok Matt for now, as long as I can still get in when the 7 free days is up. According to the head hancho 😉 I should still be able to get in. If not, then yes, that might be an option, multiple weeks worth of new email accounts that I won’t otherwise be using 😉 ……..

  2. William,
    Understand where you are coming from re accepting Crikey’s offer.
    However, unless I’m doing something wrong, it is the case that having previously had a free trial means I am locked out. Or so the Crikey error message said …
    Thanks again, great website.

  3. So I can take out a trial sub with another email address, you say. So every week I can create a new email address and get another free 7-day sub? If I can do that, why would anyone ever pay for a Crikey sub? They must have a way of preventing that.

  4. Well it seems Crikey really are that stupid, since I now have a new free Crikey sub (which I don’t want) under another email address. However it appears that all comments get sent for moderation. Whose moderation? William’s or Crikey’s? Someone’s going to be very busy if they have to moderate every comment. And how is conversation possible if it’s going to work that way?

  5. From the Family First website:

    “Ann Bown Seeley married Harold in 2004 and together they have seven children, 18 grandchildren and 12 great grandchildren.”

    Wow! That was quick work! Shows what you can do with Jesus on your team.

  6. Adam, despite what it says when you submit your comment (which is one of the things that need to be fixed), comments are NOT going into moderation. If you look at the Crikey site you will see your test comment there in all its glory, and it got there without me laying a finger on it.

  7. re trying free email accounts- from crikey at sign-in to 7 day trial

    Warning: Hotmail and MSN email security policies are currently preventing delivery to those accounts. We recommend you don’t use a Hotmail or MSN email address. For more information about other free email services, email subs@crikey.com.au

  8. William, while I am sure the Crikey offer was too good to refuse, you might have failed to realise that as political commentators, many of us are as competent as politicians.

  9. @ 114, they only say that so people don’t keep making new email addresses and getting a new free trial. I’ve used 6 different email address (2 hotmail, 1 yahoo, 1 optusnet, 1 gmail and 1 livingwithstyle (though you cant them anymore) and had 6 free trials. Although, only 3 of them have been n succession the other 3 were spread out over the year. I assumed it would block you from getting another free trial based on your IP but then again that’s easily changed. The only way they can stop the same people from getting free trials over and over is to stop with the free trials.

  10. Well I’m sure William will do his best to ensure the Crikey blog has all the capacity that this blog has, such as fixing the registration and moderation message and the character limit, and he won’t shut this site down until he’s fixed it. But people really need to lay off.

    And can you just set up a thread for people to discuss this issue so they can leave the rest of us to this thread’s topic, since, in case anyone didn’t know, there’s actually an election coming up really soon. Yeah, I’m not kidding! It’s like three weeks away or something. *three weeks! that’s nothing!* Yeah, thats what I’m talking about!

    Anyway, that’s enough of me talking to myself.

    I’ve been studying the preference sheets for NSW more and more. I really think Climate Change Coalition is in the position where they can lock up a huge amount of preferences. If they get ahead of either the Dems, Family First or ON/Pauline combined, then they’ll get those preferences, which should push them ahead of the others and into a strong position, and will leave the Greens with very few preferences. If this happened and the ALP was left with a small surplus the Greens are stuffed. Although if the ALP gets a vote in the mid-to-high 40s, thus giving 3-6% surplus to the Greens, Kerry will be in a strong position.

  11. Why are the Nationals in the Senate preferencing Family First in front of the Liberals? I would have thought a Coalition agreement would preclude this, if the Libs narrowly miss out a 3rd Senate spot I’m sure they’ll have a lot to say to their rural brethren (NAT preferences to FF, Family First preferences going to Xenephon before the Libs). With this Nick Xenophen seems even more of a shoe-in, SA (3 Lab, 2 Lib, Xen)

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