The worst-kept secret of recent polling history, the Sunday Telegraph’s Galaxy poll from Bennelong, has now been officially unveiled. As foreshadowed on Lateline, it has Maxine McKew leading John Howard 48 per cent to 47 per cent on the primary vote. McKew’s lead on two-party preferred is 52-48. The following, at least, is news:
Overall, 81 per cent of those within Bennelong who voted for Mr Howard at the last election say they will vote for him again. But his support has been eroded by the 17 per cent of Liberal voters at the last election who now say they are leaning more to Labor. In contrast, Maxine McKew’s vote remains solid – 92 per cent of those who voted for Labor in 2004 are sticking with her, along with 73 per cent of the former Green voters … A key change since August – and one that bodes ill for Mr Howard – is that more Bennelong voters now claim to have locked in their vote. Overall, 77 per cent claim to have made up their mind which candidate they will vote for at the election later this month, up from 69 per cent in August.