Advertiser poll: 64-36 in Adelaide

By which I mean the electorate of Adelaide, which Kate Ellis won from the Liberals against the trend of the 2004 election. The Advertiser’s latest poll of 724 respondents suggests Ellis has a mighty sophomore surge coming her way: her margin is tipped to increase from 1.3 per cent to 14 per cent, and she holds a 52 per cent to 30 per cent lead on the primary vote.

The following map shows the results from the six polls the Advertiser has published since September 26. The bold figure indicates the two-party vote, the bracketed figure the swing from 2004.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.