Westpoll: Liberals lead in Perth marginals

A very encouraging result for the government from Westpoll in today’s West Australian, which has the Liberals holding firm in their Perth marginals of Stirling and Hasluck and set to win Cowan from Labor with a 5 per cent swing. The poll was conducted between Monday and Thursday with samples of a little over 400 for each seat. This is the second electorate-level poll Westpoll has conducted, and both have shown the Liberals travelling much better in these three seats than Westpoll’s regular statewide polling would suggest. If the overall 3 per cent swing indicated in today’s poll was replicated statewide, the two-party split in Western Australia would be at least 58-42 in favour of the Liberals. The last two statewide surveys showed Labor leads of 51.6-48.4 early last month and 53-47 early this month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

293 comments on “Westpoll: Liberals lead in Perth marginals”

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  1. Howard’s senior moment today where he addressed “Mr Speaker” when he was not even in parliament follows his gaffe last week when he got the current interest rate wrong. Last week he also used the wrong Christian name for his candidate in Rudd’s seat.

    The gaffes are coming quick and fast, a rate uncharacteristic for him. Will he interesting to see how he goes as the pressure intensifies and Rudd continues playing with his mind. He is not as young as he used to be. And there is more riding on this election for him (Howie) than there is for Rudd (legacy, the future of the Liberal Party, the future of WorkChoices, Bennelong). How will he handle one or two ominous opinion polls or an interest rate rise, for example?

    There is a possibility he might drop the ball in a big way.

  2. 203 Glen – There you Liberals go again, running an American style negative scare campaign. Australians want to hear about the future, t’s why Labor is committing $3 billion to education rebates to help Australia become the Clever Nation.

  3. Rx, good point.

    If this is how H*ward performs out on the hustings after a “good” week with all the alleged momentum, how will he go when he has a bad week?

    His long campaign choice may end up backfiring, instead of wearing Rudd down and him making a gaffe, it’s looking more likely H*ward will be the one who gets run down and makes a bigger gaffe.

  4. On a serious note, I actually thought Glen might have been a bit clever digging that ad up, turns out he just went to his browser’s home page (Liberal party site). Very good man. Fantastic. Really adding to the conversation on this site.

  5. The only people who shattered them were those independents Labor didnt win that election the Independents won it for em…

    Keats it isnt a scare campaign to tell the truth Labor just copied 91.5% of our policy and stuck on some education stuff on the end of it to look different they didnt have a policy they stole ours because ours was great…where will the ALP be if the Coalition wasnt there writing up their policies…lol.

  6. Stole the policy?? Get real. You don’t have a copyright on numbers. A tax cut’s a tax cut brother.
    You need to explain why you’re not willing to invest in education and health. That’s what Australians care about, not whether they get $5 extra a week.

  7. [Keats it isnt a scare campaign to tell the truth Labor just copied 91.5% of our policy]

    Glen, thnat could also apply to the Lib’s Broadband Policy as well 🙂

  8. Actually no because Frank we didnt say we’d steal 2.5b from the Future Fund we aren’t irresponsible fiscal managers like the ALP…

  9. Come on Glen, Howard didn’t know what broadband even was until Labor told him. He thinks it all still works with tincan and string.

  10. well they sure won in 2002 and 2006. What is the joke in Victoria?
    That the next liberal Premier of Victoria is currently at Geelong Grammar or something. classic.

  11. [Howard didn’t know what broadband even was until Labor told him. He thinks it all still works with tincan and string.]

    If Howard had his way, we’d be stuck with dialup running at 2400 baud.

  12. I never said it wasnt needed im saying that there are other ways to spend money on education/health without doing it through a tax cut…you can have separate policies on health and education that will be better than what Labor is offering…and by the way how crap did Rudd’s laptop look i had one in 1995 it was made in the stone age and yet you bag Howard over broadband get a life!

  13. What is it with this obsession about minutiae ?

    I thought it was silly when the Liberals attacked KR over not being able to recall the tax rates and I think it is the same with Labor attacking JWH over slips of the tongue and the like.

    If you really think this has any impact on an election then you’re just silly.

  14. Of all the photo opps we see of JWH why not one, a single one, of him showing any affinity with the online age? I doubt he has a personal email account that is not managed by a “minder”.

  15. to brush up on your politics young staffer

    Think is, Glen, you have absolutely no idea about my age or occupation. It would be an odd statement for a young staffer to say that Kim Beazley made it possible for him or her to go to university. Pretty dumb, really.

    Brand is a marginal seat im…

    Well, let’s see what Anthony Green says on the ABC site…
    “though the seat remains with a relatively safe margin on the Labor side of the pendulum.” I bet you wish all your marginals were on 4.7%….

  16. Can’t say that I do, ESJ. Your question piqued my interest so I did a search on him in Factiva. In 2006 he ran for mayor of Joondalup and finished third in a very even four-way race. I assume you are aware that he joined One Nation in 2001 in the hope of being their Senate candidate. Beyond that, I learned only that he “started a business”.

  17. Glen – re the tax cuts, Costello, being a smart arse, stated on Wed that Labor should follow the Libs tax cuts. So they did! Yesteday, Costello is on TV whinging about Labor stealing 91.5% of the Libs tax policy. He looked rather silly in front of the media.

  18. [Kit see they even copy our youtube ads now how lame can Labor get!]

    Umm, it’s an INDIVDUAL who has done the response – if it was an offical ALP ad there would be an authorisation tag at the end which this one doesn’t.

    Use that thing between your ears before you post.

  19. 238 Thought you’d be used to it by now Glen. It will only happen till November the 24th and after that I have been assured no more copying.

  20. “I agree that W.A. will be irrelevant on the night. 4.9% swing in NSW and 3% or less everywhere else gets the ALP across the line and into government. NSW is the one to watch as even large swings in other states wont do it unless NSW swings above 4. (I think from playing with the ABC’s calculator)”.

    Interesting theory Imacca (185) What is the current swing in NSW?

  21. I think swinging voters changes sides based on engagement with political issues. The rusted on voter, the vast majority, never changes sides because they have chosen it the way they chose their football side, they grew into it sub-conciously.Thus how bad their team has been is irrelevant to them – they are always rationalising their choice when the news or image is bad. And this explains the level of support the LNP have.

    If we had ALL people choosing sides based on a real understanding of the issues then we would get results like 80/20, 70/30. Instead it’s always around 50/50, like tossing a coin, except those few percentage of swingers, thinkers.

    An ominous occurrence this year for Howard is the anecdotal evidence that some rusted on Liberals (never voted Labor) are deciding to change sides. The ‘it is time for a change’ feeling is coming into it. I think it would be hard to change this feeling when both sides will cancel out each other’s noise. Or when Rudd presents himself particularly well.

    The remaining battle is not only on the technical qualities of policies, that is for the swingers like me and many others here, it is all about presenting the neccessary images to keep those from the ‘rusted ons’.

  22. Well imacca if you believe Galaxy (and assuming swings are uniform) then this swing has now come down to 5.4%. Another 1.5% and the election is over for Labor.

  23. [The swing now is probably negligible.]

    We’ve still got swingers like ESJ who might want to get with the strength and back a winner for once, Nostrils.

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