Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition

• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.

• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).

Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.

Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.

• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.

Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.

• Anyone speak Portuguese?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition”

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  1. Glen, laws governing installation of bus belts are federal. If the need was pressing, a change of law rather than stunt would be the go. Also, simple way to get to hear Labors policy detail: get on the Little Man’s case to stop playing games and call th election.

  2. Possum got a mention today in Crikey :):) …..

    We haven’t hired Laurie Oakes, but when campaigning begins in earnest we will bring you regular despatches from: Christian Kerr, Richard Farmer, Stephen Mayne, Wayne Errington, John Hewson, Guy Rundle, Paul Comrie-Thompson, Margaret Simons on media, Adam Kilgour on spin, Helen Razer on the tech campaign, Mungo MacCallum, Jeff Sparrow, David Flint, Mark Bahnisch, Norman Abjorensen and David MacCormack. Plus the poll-driven analysis of Mumble Politics superwonk Peter Brent and the superior blogging skills of Possum Comitatus. There will be others. Australia’s leading political interviewer, Kerri-Anne Kennerley, is still thinking about it.

  3. Ok it justifies my point to see how pathetic the left has become they cant even acknowledge when their side makes mistakes…

    Lol well ill tell you this CTEP

    I’m glad the party i support has a leader who understands basic economic principles/premises…i think its funny that the leader of the party many of the bloggers support doesnt know squat about economics and yet you think the economy will still be good with Rooster as Treasurer and Rudd who doesnt understand productivity or tax rates lol!

    Im not trying to convert anybody i just think its hilarious you support a person so obviously unqualified to run the economy…

    LOL Rudd gets a F when it comes to economics….

  4. John Howard won’t call the election in the next week, so unless any of the Pauline objections have substance, I expect her party to get registration in time.

    He will be hoping the CDP and Fishing are registered before the election as well.

  5. Glen:
    Howard gets a C for economics, an F for Foreign Affairs, an F for Defence, an F for Education, an F for health care and an F for immigration.

    Stop polluting this blog with your partisan rubbish.

  6. Glen: The irony is, if you knew anything about economics 101, you would know that there is a ‘global economy’ and Howard’s actions mean diddly squat and didn’t cause the mining boom, nor prevent a recession.

  7. Glen of course the ALP makes mistakes. I doubt any of us seriously think otherwise. I also reject any statements that the Coalition should never be in government. Do you say the ALP should never be in government?

    I think you’d be surprised how little John Howard really knows. That’s why he has a whole team of advisors.

    None of us expect Kevin Rudd to be an expert on the economy. In fact, I have no idea how much he knows and don’t care. If elected, he will be advised on all matters by a range of groups. I’d hope he’ll hold inquiries etc. because no one party can ever claim to know what’s best on their own. I’d hope he’d be more consultative than this Government in any case.

    I don’t even know why I’m bothering to engage in discussion with you though, because you’ve shown time and again you’re not willing to take any criticism on board. You just come across as immature and yes, a complete party hack. You even wheel out the party line constantly. Can’t you think for yourself for a change.

    I used to think you had something of interest to contribute…

  8. Asanque you have like a faithful supporter of Rudd simply avoided the question of his inexperience…he may know a thing or two when it comes to foreign affairs but he is no economic manager and that’s what will cost him dearly…

    Rudd

    Economy F
    Housing D
    Environment C
    IR C
    Health C
    Education C
    Defence C
    Foreign Affairs C
    Immigration C
    Water F

    Howard

    Economy A
    Housing B
    Environment B
    IR B
    Health B
    Education B
    Foreign Affairs B
    Immigration A
    Defence A
    Water B +

  9. No the Coalition should not be in government forever…ive always said if the Coalition wins this year id deal with us losing in 2010 it would be time then and no i dont support 1 party running everything like you shouldnt either but you want wall to wall Labor so meh!

  10. Glen: Your marks are meaningless and so is your constant drivel about experience. Rudd is not in government, Howard is.

    And your marks are blatantly absurd given the number of debacles this government has undergone. Let me remind you for the swinging voters (if any): Haneef scandal, Hicks debacle, AWB scandal, Iraq war debacle, Santoro scandal, Hornet debacle, lack of skills investment.

    Why bother marking Rudd, when he hasn’t been given a chance yet.

    Call the election, and lets give him one.

    He can’t do any worse than Howard and his incompetent crew.

  11. Ok, we’ve pitched into the pot for William at our house. I have also just pitched into the pot for a Kevin07 shirt. Any of the others out there have their shirts yet?

  12. Glen I don’t care about wall to wall Labor. I make up my mind on my state government come election time. I make my mind up on my federal Government come election time. The other parliaments make no difference to me at all.

    Are you saying if all the states were Coalition governments you would never vote Coalition federally? Of course not.

    If you’re concerned about democracy surely Coalition control of the Senate must be of more concern that ‘coast to coast Labor governments’.

  13. I’m generally with Glen’s politics, but there’s no way the govt gets a B for environment. He pretended to be green for 1996 (as he pretended to like Medicare and dislike interest groups), but since then he’s delivered nothing. Now, when the environment is centre stage, we get a $25m advertising campaign telling us all to become carbon neutral.

    I’d rather he stopped cutting education and health funding too. They’re too vital to let slip in growing an economy.

    But back to the psephology/election stuff that we so love – what will Vaile be doing after the election? The Nats are, as usual, guaranteed to keep shrinking.

  14. CTEP (post 90) Speak for yourself about “decideds” and why do you and others mock Glen? He is entitled to his opinions which are, frankly, no more or less enlightening than anybody else’s opinions (myself included) on this and other threads. He says things which may be at odds with a prevailing “wisdom” but does that really matter and aren’t different perspectives to be encouraged? William, please correct me if I am wrong, but I thought this blog was open to a range of different opinions.

  15. Glen seems to have an obsession with leadership and economic management. Take a look at the USA and one of the presidential candidates for the Republican party one Fred Thompson, an actor, who to the best of my knowledge has never led anything and whose economic management credentials are unknown. And he might become the leader of the most powerful nation on Earth.

  16. Well i wouldnt be happy about it because having one party run everything is not good for democracy CTEP!

    But since Rudd wont be able to pass anything through the Senate even if he wins he could go a DD election and he could lose!

  17. The wall to wall thing and ‘no checks and balances’ is the lamest attempt of a scare campaign. The checks and balances are in the Senate, not the states. If the states are the checks and balances, then how did Howard get his SerfChoices through? Oh that’s right, he had control the Senate.

    No one is listening about the wall-to-wall scare campaign. Also people know they can vote the state ALP out at their next election.

  18. http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/mother-has-lost-capacity-to-love/2007/09/19/1189881572485.html

    This is exactly why the Government needs to outlaw homosexual couples and single hetrosexual women from using IVF…

    I think this is outrageous they wanted a child they end up with 2 and are now suing i mean seriously…Howard ought to do something about this because IVF should only be for hetrosexual couples who can better deal with the challenges of parenthood.

  19. David Charles of course the blog is open to a range of different opinions. I have no problem with other opinions if they are not deliberately framed so as to be provocative and to derail the general purpose of the site.

    I’m generally open to Glen, and other Liberal supporters, providing they’re not merely attempting to pick a fight. I don’t think I’ve been particularly ‘mocking’ but I’m entitled to state my opinion on a particular post’s merit just as you have in your post included a judgment on parts of my post.

    As to point about the ‘decideds’ it’s my opinion, and one I’ve held for a long time, that most people who engage in political debate usually are decided one way or the other. This is a view held by many political scientists.

  20. Enjaybee Thompson shouldnt and i agree with you…thats why i support Rudy Giuliani because he’s had to run a 15million pop city…he has executive experience so id vote for him if i were a yank.

    Rudd needs more than 1 year in opposition before becoming PM he needs more time to learn everything the ropes i mean Howard was Opposition leader for several years before he became PM…and look how well the economy turned out.

  21. Re (118),

    But since Rudd wont be able to pass anything through the Senate even if he wins he could go a DD election and he could lose!

    That statement presumes that the Libs who are left after the election can get their collective act together to organize themselves in time. The Libs are heading for a hiding and will be too shell shocked to get anything together for some time to come. 12 to 18 months down the track is way too soon for them. If polls hold out at the consistent mid 50’s type numbers we have seen for some months now, Rudd and company will get minimum 3 elections (this one, the called early DD one and the next regular one) before anyone can even begin to take the opposition seriously again.

  22. It’s funny Glen but I remember just a few weeks ago you stating that you didn’t support discrimination against same-sex couples.

  23. 124 Glen Says: September 19th, 2007 at 4:04 pm

    Rudd needs more than 1 year in opposition before becoming PM

    No he doens’t, and I’ll prove it to you come election time.

  24. Great link Ashley. Always had a soft spot for Talk Like A Pirate Day, though it’s hard on the throat I find. This is my favourite bit:

    “Howard gets a C fer economics, an F fer Foreign Affairs, an F fer Defence, an F fer Education, an F fer health care an’ an F fer immigration.

    Avast pollutin’ this blog wi’ yer partisan rubbish.”

    Quite.

  25. Glen,
    how does the case you mentioned earlier (the lesbian lawsuit) support your assertion that IVF should be restricted to heterosexuals or don’t you actually have a reasoned argument to support that?

    Hawke was the most succesful Labor leader ever and had bugger all time as leader.

    While I’m at it, Rudy Guiliani doesn’t have a snowballs, if you want me to take you to school on U.S politics, just let me know ok.

  26. Enjaybee,

    You example of Fred Thompson in the USA is spot on. The One quality that a leader must have is leadership. Another example that fits you case is Ronald Reagan

    Howard’s main qualities are courage, doggeries and a willingness to gamble regardless of the odds. Of cause one trait that Howard lacks is any affinity to honesty.

    We are unsure of Costello’s abilities except to the extent that he lacks those traits that Howard has.

    Rudd appears to have leadership if the time in the position as leader of the Opposition is any guide. He also appears very honest (despite what Glen and his fellow travellers say).

  27. Howard gets a C fer economics
    F for Foreign Affairs
    F for Defence
    F for Education
    F for Health care
    F for Immigration.

    That’s about it alright. Let’s not forget an F for Environment, and an F for Aboriginal Affairs.

  28. wo wo wo CTEP

    Let me be clear about my position regarding same-sex couples…

    I fully support their right to have equality under the laws regarding their financial obligations/superannuation and the like. I dont really have a problem with civil unions but i do have a problem with gay marriage.

    I do not however support same sex couples having children their own by IVF or otherwise by adoption…its just my personal view.

    Tim in answer to your question…two words…Malcolm Fraser.

    Optimist do i have to remind the left that Hawke was a leader and had leadership experience before becoming PM…he was head of the ACTU for decades before he became PM…

    Ha honest lol how funny 135# then why did it take him 4 years to come clean over Strippergate…and why did he lie to Rosanna Harris over her housing situation…i think Rudd lost at least one vote there!

  29. Glen,
    running the ACTU, by your logic, then qualifies you to run the national economy right? So, do you want Combet for P.M instead of Rudd?
    You can’t have it both ways, you know.
    Glen, you’re beginning to look as though you are chasing your intellectual tail.

  30. [Ha honest lol how funny 135# then why did it take him 4 years to come clean over Strippergate]

    Glen, trust me, if every politician had to tell the public that he’d been to a strip club the night before, that’s all our papers would ever have in them.

  31. Okay Glen, you lost me at `the government should legislate against homosexuals having the same rights as the rest of us.’

    Keep on ranting if you must, but you’re embarrassing yourself.

    By the way, why would an opposition leader need a year in the position before being promoted? Neither Malcolm nor Bob, who both did pretty well, spent a year as oppoistion leader.

  32. Strippergate! The problem is that people liked the fact that Rudd got drunk and went to a strip club. Didn’t do him any harm at all.

    How could he come clean about it until someone asked? Should he have just casually dropped it into conversation?

  33. Julie,
    There apparently has been heavy demand for Kevin ’07 t-shirts, and the delay in filling orders has been exacerbated by the ALP’s determination to use an Australian supplier.
    I was fortunate, as I was given mine (free) to run in the City-Surf fun run. They were being distributed to anyone who wanted one in Hyde Park just prior to the run.

  34. May be you should ask Turnbull why he is fighting so hard not to front court from when he was involved in the HIH/FAI takeover? But no lets worry about boobies.

  35. Glen, please can you explain why you support civil unions but not gay marriage? If it is just a political wedge say so now. But if you have anyway of illustrating how one could possibly draw this distinction other than on homophobic fear please do mention it. I’ve done this debate a heap of times and that is the only explaination I have for what is prima facie a bizzare and pointless distinction.

  36. Keep banging on about the issues that the ALP already owns Glen…

    Maybe you should have a talk with Crosby/Textor about how effective that tactic is going to be for the conservatives chances.

  37. Jasmine… bizarre and pointless distinctions is what conservative politices is all about.

    Tell me Glen, do you, as conservative party doctrine dictates, oppose legalized abortion?

  38. 147 Pi Says: September 19th, 2007 at 4:47 pm

    Jasmine… bizarre and pointless distinctions is what conservative politices is all about. Tell me Glen, do you, as conservative party doctrine dictates, oppose legalized abortion?

    How on earth would that be relevant?

  39. This is exactly why the Government needs to outlaw homosexual couples and single hetrosexual women from using IVF…

    I think this is outrageous they wanted a child they end up with 2 and are now suing i mean seriously…

    Careful observers may note that there is nothing in the second sentence, or in the linked article, that is a consequence of the woman being lesbian, and single morthers don’t even rate a mention in that article.

    Hence the conclusion given by Glen is in no way justified by the evidence raised.

    But we’ve long since given up on expecting Glen to be able to construct logical arguments.

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