Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly face-to-face polls, today’s offering being a survey of 955 voters conducted on Saturday and Sunday (so before the early week leadership non-event). It shows a 1 per cent shift in the Coalition’s direction on two-party preferred, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition from 34.5 per cent to 36 per cent, Labor from 49 per cent to 51 per cent.
Frank #337 I think you’ll find McGinty’s position paralleled by any masochist who’d even contemplate becoming Queensland health minister, or any other state for that matter. Health is just a complete mess, through and through. If Kevin-oh-Heaven does get in, Nicola Roxon’s got a bugger of a job on her hands.
And I don’t reckon Mark Olsen’s a closet Liberal. I just think he’s odd.
#90
Glen you are really out to lunch this time:
“1. The only major nuclear accident was in Soviet Russia about 20 years ago”
Three Mile Island was pretty big, the Germans shut down their pebble-bed experimental reactor (poster-boy-technology of the new “safe” nuclear industry) after a succession of accidents culminating in a reactor that could not be shut down for over a week, the Japanese have accidents every few months or so (mostly covered up), including a pretty bad one in 1999 which killed 2 workers from irradiation, severely injured another, irradiated a small town and led to its evacuation (which I think has become permanent). There are many more examples.
“3. Nuclear energy is safe and almost fool proof”
See above.
“…the French who use 80% Nuclear.”
30%. Besides, most of our needs are in replacing petrol, not electricity production.
“4. Nuclear Energy has Zero thats right Zero Carbon Emissions”
Rubbish. Construction of the plants has a huge carbon footprint and upstream and downstream processing just add to it.
“5. As much as solar, wind, geothermal and tidal or all well and good they as yet cannot provide base load power ”
The base load myth. Base load only exists because turbines are not responsive to being turned on and off quickly. That’s why you get off-peak power pricing at night – it’s a case of “use it or lose it”. Distributed power generation like solar, wind etc doesn’t have that problem.
“and clean coal technology is decades off…”
Totally agree. [It is Howard’s policy though to promote it as a “here, now” solution, or have you forgotten that news item from a few years ago.]
“I would have no problems living next door to a nuclear power station,”
Speak for yourself.
“…disinformation …”
My first degree is in physics. I know what I’m talking about. Do you?
Speaking of Evil Unions, I see the AMA are demanding cash for Doctor’s list.
[THE Australian Medical Association is refusing to pass on to the federal Health Department the names of 800 GPs and specialists who have put up their hands to help carry out health checks on indigenous children.
The main doctors’ lobby group is citing privacy issues, telling the Government that if it wants to draw on the volunteers’ skills it must wait to be contacted by the individuals or pay the association a substantial sum – more than $100,000 – to help run the humanitarian scheme.
The AMA, which gathered the names after appealing to interested doctors to get in touch, says the money is needed to offset the administrative cost of getting its doctors involved in John Howard’s massive intervention in Aboriginal communities. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22415507-601,00.html
Will Shrek be brave enough to report Dr Capolingua to the Workplace Ombudsman ?
JM,
I suspect there are many small l Liberals whom have been enjoying the past few months, I note some people bag Rudd but Rudd has played to this lot very nicely.
I note that according to the polls the swing is bigger in safer Liberal seats, while I’m not expecting you to name your seat but considering the nature of the polls can you sniff a swing.
This being me back to the defence Liberals use to put up about not having the anger that we all saw toward Keating, these Liberals don’t go marching up Bourke St shouting “were angry, very very angry” its just not the done thing.
The Heartland is coming
very troubling
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZqoCZV5vC70&refer=home
Well in Solomon I know a few born to be Liberal voters now voting labor.
[351
Marktwain Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 2:03 am
Frank #337 I think you’ll find McGinty’s position paralleled by any masochist who’d even contemplate becoming Queensland health minister, or any other state for that matter. Health is just a complete mess, through and through. If Kevin-oh-Heaven does get in, Nicola Roxon’s got a bugger of a job on her hands.]
Totally Agree, even Bob KUcera couldn’t fix it cos of the Meddling by the AMA, especially when they kicked up a big stink over GP Clinics in Emergency Depts to ease the pressure on REAL emergencies and not someone with a splinter in their finger.]
[And I don’t reckon Mark Olsen’s a closet Liberal. I just think he’s odd.]
Yep, he is an odd one alright, during his recent Bullying trial he claimed that it was all part of a vendetta by the ALP and McGinty to get at him.
What a paranoid twit.
On Infamous quotes by steven and nostra who here remembers the one from back at Ozpolitcs, where (and i think it was steven, but it was certainly one or the other), told us that the next interest rate move would be down and right before the election.
well it went up, and its quite possible it will go up again right before the election. (depending on when its held)
has anyone got this in their vault? would love to re-read it
While we can see the raw poll numbers, I’m curious which part is the main driver behind this surge in support for the ALP.
Is it High income, the Middle or the Lower or is it equally spread, also I’m curious which of those three groups is most important to Howard, meaning which group has he relied on to survive 11 years.
I’m not 100% sure but I think it might have been Steven.
But reading the story from Bloomberg and in light of what’s happening in America I suspect the RPA may leave rates on hold.
that’s just a gut feel
Frank, I never understood why Brendan Nelson was never lumbered with health. I don’t think he spent very long working as a doctor but he must have done a reasonable amount of training in a hospital before hitting private practice. Perhaps he knew what a disaster the whole area was and preferred to run around annoying the higher education sector instead of dirtying his hands with health?
Well in Solomon I know a few born to be Liberal voters now voting labor.
Kina 356
One of my neighbours, who I get on well with and have occasional chats (including politics) over the back fence, is a middle level backroom player in the CLP. We crossed paths again earlier on today in the back paddocks, and inevitably politics came up. When I asked him about the federal government’s chances and Tollner’s in particular, he just shook his head, looked very exasperated and downcast, and quickly changed the subject.
I guess after two straight losses to NT Labor, a looming federal drubbing is just too much for the poor guy to contemplate.
I didn’t laugh. Well, not on the outside, he is a decent fellow and a good neighbour.
The CLP are seriously short on talent and it doesn’t need much to put presure on the NT govt. Hmmm maybe I should run as an independant and join gerry wood in being the opposition party. haha
With Howard’s increasing arrogance [yes he is still reaching for the limit] about how he is the party and the party is letting him down, the bad polls, the fact that the Cabinet another bad poll of the order 60/40 will see him gone within a week. His only option to avoid a spill might be to quickly call an election. Then again apparently Costello is not liked by most of the Cabinet either.
Gerry Wood is my local member and he is a pretty decent guy. Though being an independent in the current NT Assembly doesn’t mean much, due to Labor’s massive majority. It was better in the first Labor term, when the two independents held the balance of power.
And the CLP are out of contention for at least the next term as well.
Then again apparently Costello is not liked by most of the Cabinet either.
Oh dear, what shall they do? Hehe.
Gotta love Alan Ramsey’s discernment..don’t think I can do links but is
smh.com.au/news/opinion/pm-bowled-over-by-the-bright-side-of-life/2007/09/14/1189276986744.html
Cheer me up, buttercups.
Alan Ramsey is the most tragic figure in the press gallery. He would have to be the most bitter and twisted, grumpy old man the Canberra press gallery has ever produced.
JM writes:
“I have no problem in suspecting that quite a few of these people might have finally switched and will be prepared to preference Labor.”
No; this election it’s not about a preference for Labor, it about getting over it and voting Labor. The conservatives that have captured the Liberal party have gone to the right, hard, leaving behind the center. Labor has done to the center.
Family first is for nutters to the right of Howard, a very small band.
Rudd is fighting hard for the center, upsetting the hard left, but the hard left should take a long hard look at the Liberal party and contemplate the result of extreme positions getting an upper hand. I doubt the Liberal party will recover..
Notice, any hint of class politics and Rudds jumps on it ( member for Ballarat).
Howard in attempting to win the election by taking the party further and further to the right with Rudd pushing in from the left. The Liberal party ( what is left of it) has totally lost contact with reality, it it pretty simple to understand, extreme ideology is worth zip, you need 50% of the vote to govern, you have to position yourself across the center.
Costello is much more a centralist, with the right wing nutters in control he will never have the numbers, and without control he will not be able to drag them back to the center.
On Wednesday this week the fate of the Liberal party was sealed; just add them to the very long list of defunct Australian political parties.
“Arbie Jay, a quick search online says the suburb is Sydenham, which turns out to be Gorton which is a Safe Labor at 64.9% TPP”
Speaking of safe Labor seats, I was trolling through Portland bet site last night and found a seat where the Libs are SO far away from ever getting it that “any other” outpolls the Libs by a considerable margin.
Melbourne – ALP at 1.00, “any other” at about 15 or 16 and the libs at 31.00 …. Even in the other safe seats, the Libs outpoll “any other” ;-D
344
bmwofoz Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 1:50 am
“Its funny Howard being a Leo for life was meant to improve for Leo’s after Saturn left on Sept 2, funny that was the weekend when Newspoll did its last set of polling. I read Venus leaves Leo soon, gee the burden of Saturn has been left now the love of Venus is leaving poor Howard the cowardly Lion”
Howard has had 3 squares this year; Saturn square Uranus, Neptune square Uranus and Jupiter square Neptune. The latter has its direct pass on 9th of November but its influences will be increasing as that date gets closer. From my astrological library (in part) – “On another level, this transit, like other Neptune-Jupiter transits, can signify the kind of false optimism that makes you take foolish risks, especially with limited resources.” Glad to see there is another astrological buff like myself hanging around in the rafters.
Another nice song for the Libs but for Johnnie in particular since he has been so self centered in Saturday’s papers ;-). Comes from an American band of the 70’s and early 80’s called Styx, called Come Sail Away.
I’m sailing away, set an open course for the virgin sea
I’ve got to be free, free to face the life that’s ahead of me
On board, I’m the captain, so climb aboard
We’ll search for tomorrow on every shore
And I’ll try, oh Lord, I’ll try to carry on
I look to the sea, reflections in the waves spark my memory
Some happy, some sad
I think of childhood friends and the dreams we had
We live happily forever, so the story goes
But somehow we missed out on that pot of gold
But we’ll try best that we can to carry on
A gathering of angels appeared above my head
They sang to me this song of hope, and this is what they said
They said come sail away, come sail away
Come sail away with me
Come sail away, come sail away
Come sail away with me
I thought that they were angels, but to my surprise
They climbed aboard their starship and headed for the skies
Singing come sail away, come sail away
Come sail away with me
Come sail away, come sail away
Come sail away with me
The SMH has published a very interesting piece this morning on focus group work done by Nielsen in the marginal seats of Paramatta & Lindsay (NSW) and Chisholm & Deakin (Vic). (Curiously, they and The Age are erroneously calling it polling – perhaps because they think readers won’t understand what ‘focus group’ means?)
When you read the article, you’ll see exactly where the Govt is coming from with the dual leadership strategy. You get to keep Howard with his experience and the fact you can trust him to handle a crisis. But you also get the younger person with some renewal and possibly fresh ideas.
And it’s absolutely no accident that the front page of this morning’s Weekend Oz has a puff piece on Costello spending the weekend doing the list of chores he’s been given by Tanya – first of all pruning the lemon tree. It’s an attempt to show that he’s an ordinary suburban husband: again, something which Howard is not and Rudd can understand, according to the focus groups.
For me the most important reminder the SMH article gives is how swinging voters’ views are formed on the basis of impressions and feelings, with very little substance when probed. They don’t have a detailed knowledge of or interest in policies. Their view that Howard has passed his use-by date and it’s time for a change translates into a soft support for Rudd. In other circumstances I would say that this gives the Government some hope for clawing back support (Nielsen says up to 10% in these seats, IIRC) with their two-for-one strategy. But that assumes a static Opposition. The Rudd Labor team is far from that, and has shown they can meet every challenge thrown out by the Libs so far this year. Watch for their reaction.
Oh, BTW, interesting The Age has chosen not to run the full story but merely a short news item – at least on their website. Can Victorians confirm it’s not in the paper? Perhaps being held for Sunday.
Julie at 368, I have a limited understanding of the horoscope, but, for all of those people still tipping the coalition, I beleive that whilst uranus points towards earth, the coalition will lose the 2007 election.
Cheers,
Tom.
Re #367 – Julie, the ‘other’ in Melbourne is the Greens. The market is saying there is more chance of them winning than the Libs, which is true. To do this, though, they need to run second to Labor and get all the Lib preferences and hold Lindsay Tanner under 50% on first preferences. This looks a bit unlikely. 2004 result was Labor 51.8, Liberal 25.1, Green 19.0. See Adam Carr’s excellent site for more details.
A campaign is a long time in politics and people are kidding themselves if they can pick this result now.
Comments by many here on the performance of Swan show the same ocular tendency to view with a rosy tinge that prompts the excessive egg-counting of marginal seats lately.
I don’t know if Batman and Robin will make it out alive but yesterday, for the first time I have seen him, Rudd looked tired. During the interview in which he predicted an extremely negative campaign from the coalition, in the next breath he was slagging both of them off to the media. At the same time as this was running, we were plagued by taunting, negative ads about the Libs leadership and history 22 years ago. All the time, his entire forehead didn’t move.
Rudd is the best thing that has happened to the Labor party for 30 years and yet, I wonder if he has peaked too early. It is a long road home and both Batman and Robin have enormous strength and tenacity in the media. ALP sympathisers are genuinely kidding themselves if they think that Gillard and Swan are in the same league at supporting their leader.
It is a long road home.
373
GenericOracle Says:
“It is a long road home.”
Yes – and the Libs limo is out petrol ;-D ………
If you’re bored of Australian politics just scroll up to Chris B @ 317 and click on “Chris B” and you’ll get an update on what’s happening in the lead up to the 2008 US Federal House and Senate races, and next year’s Republican and Democrat Presidential candidate primaries! 🙂
Hey – Anyone got an idea of the date?
I keep hearing Oct 27 or Nov 3. Is that what others are hearing. I just want the real campaign to start and the phoney war to end.
I guess if its the 27th October it will be called on the 23 September and put many of us out of collective misery.
🙂
Tuning in on a few discussion lines above:
We all know that a nuclear power station will cost squillions, and there is all the waste at the end. Why not spend some serious money on investigating the nations geo thermal resources, which are meant to be boundless.
On the other hand, I do believe that there is a lot scaremongering regarding nuclear power – and there are places in south east Australia that are actually suitable – parts of Gippsland,near Portland, SE SA, and the Eyre Peninsula. But, I refuse to have my intelligence insulted by the likes of my local Labor candidate circulating a petition arguing that there should not be a nuclear power station built in Deakin – i.e in the middle of suburbia – if I lived in Wannon, or Gippsland, or Barker,or somewhere feasible, there might be some merit in such a petition.
bmwofoz #323 Dunkley and Flinders are to be targetted with nuclear power station advertisements radio and TV. Once they are run they will be well within reach. Heres a sample of the ads if you haven’t seen them yet.
Scares even the blue rinse set.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSAKIjna-bA
GO MAGPIES and thank you very much, the $100 I invested in a win will pay for dinner with the Mrs tonight.
On the NUCLEAR POWER PLANT thing, the advertising the ALP are sponsoring in pristine, ‘beautiful one day, nuclear the next’ in Qld is pretty powerful in the ‘scare’ affect it is intended to produce.
What I don’t understand, regardless of a person’s position on the issue, is what Howard is going to gain from pushing a nuclear power plant option.
For a start, it takes many years to get it up and running and he will not be here for that and since it is a long way off even if it does get through Parliament, there is no short term gain for Howard in pushing this barrow.
The cynic in me says there is no votes in it for Howard, so why is he doing it ? It goes against his mantra for the past 2 elections at least which is at least partly motivating policy direction. That is, “is it a vote winner”.
You might argue that Workchoices is an example that contradicts the notion that policy is driven by vote catching motives.
You might also argue that Howard beleives or beleived that he had the electorate by the short and curlies and would be forgiven for just about anything {Tampa et al}, including WorkChoices.
The caveat to this forgiving attitude in the electorate was that the economy kept ticking along like a Timex watch and he shared some of the ‘surplus’ he has generated (by cutting Government spending in Indigenous policy areas, for example) with the punters via income tax cuts etc.
Now it appears that he has gone too far with Workchoices. Some voters are becoming very aware that their share of the benefits of tight fiscal policy on Government spending and a ‘growing economy’ is a handful of dust.
This ‘dust’ is evidenced by maxed out credit cards and ever growing personal debt that people have taken on board in the hope that their share of the good times pie will eventually trickle down to them.
And what does the Coalition have to say to them, for example people who are having their homes repossessed ? The Coalition says “It is your fault if you over extended yourself and took on a home loan you could not afford, idiot”.
John Howard had to intervene and specifically instruct his MPs to stop giving that arrogant, dismissive summation of mortgage belt battlers.
That kind of dismissive, hypocritical, arrogance is classically exemplified in the person of Peter Costello which explains much of his unpopular status with the electorate.
Nuclear Power Plants {environment}, Workchoices {employees rights do matter still}, Mortgage Interest Rate increases which may go up again prior to the election and the cost of living [food, petrol, credit card debt] expected over the coming weeks due to the drought and failing winter crops are 4 very compelling reasons for people to vote against the Coalition this time around.
From where I stand, Labor either holds these 4 Aces in their own hands or is happy for them to be in the hands of the 1M voters who swung against Keating in 1996. How they play their hands at the election is now up to them.
Nuclear Power Plants ! Workchoices ! Increasing Mortgage Rates ! and a bad winter crop pushing up the supermarket bill around election time does not bode well for the Coalition, already 14-18 pts behind in the 2PP vote according to the polls in recent months.
Howard is in complete denial if he thinks he can find a ‘rabbit’/’team to trump these 4 issues. A ‘scare campaign’ on unions is all he has right now.
Aristotle @267
[Barney, I found them too draconian, the old buggers.]
SOLONg as you didn’t campaign for Peisistratus. He’s got tyrranical tendencies so i hear.
[“Spiros Arion? I voted for Con Tolios. Gave my second preference to Con Dandos.â€
These three were on a senate ticket together, it was a real wrestle to work out the order. ]
I have two words: OOOOOOOOOOHH Brother!!!!!!!!
I find it interesting that Howard’s observation that his popularity rating is higher than the party’s was merely a one line entry in a body of text in the Fairfax press but occupied the whole front page of the Daily Telegraph (paper version) with the screaming headline “YOU’RE NOTHING WITHOUT ME”
Bluebottle Both John Howard and George Bush are so blindly arrogant that they do what they want to do. What they and their faithful supporters do not realise is that they will end up destroying their own party.
The nuclear power thing is another example of how Howard has lost the plot. It was originally cooked up to put pressure on Rudd during the ALP national conference. – Failed.
Then it was the solution to global warming – see we really have a plan. -Failed
Now they wish it would all go away. 🙂
Ruling From The Political Grave
The purpose of the nuclear policy is not to build nuclear power stations. Before a single power station can be built we have to have ancilliary industries – enrichment and waste disposal – up and running, well in advance.
Once these are established, their proprietors (round up the usual mining industry/Lib hacks suspects) will begin looking for business. Deals that have already been done to lease uranium to other countries mean it’s still our uranium; more so if it’s pre-enriched (and value-added) before it leaves our shores. Because it is still “our” uranium, then Downer’s promise that we will not dump “other countries'” uranium can be technically kept.
Our domestic waste dumping industry, set up ostensibly to service domestic reactors (that will never need to be be built) will begin duming “our” (i.e. leased and reimported) nuclear waste in areas now available after aboriginal title was effectively suspended during the “Little Children” affair of recent months.
Every minute spent arguing about nuclear reactors in our back yards is a wasted minute. It bypasses the core of Howard’s strategy: to set up enrichment and waste disposal on aboriginal lands as a cosy industry for crony mates.
The nuclear reactor “controversy” is a stalking horse designed to divert our attention from the much more important (to their owners) ancilliary nuclear industries which can be quietly set up, out of sight (and out of mind) in the desert “wastelands” of Central Australia.
Expect contracts to be signed before the election that have the effect of committing a Labor government – against its will – to contractual nuclear support obligations.
Howard seeks to rule from beyond the political grave.
“355
blindoptimist Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 2:09 am
very troubling
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZqoCZV5vC70&refer=home”
A Victorian might be reminded of Pyramid.
“Queensland beautiful one day
Nuclear the next”
Nice ad, I reckon the ALP should run that ad on MSM its a very nicely well done ad.
“canberra boy Says:
September 15th, 2007 at 8:24 am
The SMH has published a very interesting piece this morning on focus group work done by Nielsen in the marginal seats of Paramatta & Lindsay (NSW) and Chisholm & Deakin (Vic). (Curiously, they and The Age are erroneously calling it polling – perhaps because they think readers won’t understand what ‘focus group’ means?)”
I would be very cautious whenever reading the results of “focus group” research. It’s a very difficult researching technique and is often handled poorly, leading to drawing simplistic and often inaccurate conclusions.
The best in the business and has been for over 40 years is Hugh Mackay: I would recommend reading this piece he wrote today.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/waking-up-scratchy-from-the-dreamy-period/2007/09/14/1189276986753.html
The Daily Telepath – You’re nothin without me
Message to Rudd, take that comment and add
“That’s why I’m retiring”
Julie says
“Speaking of safe Labor seats, I was trolling through Portland bet site last night and found a seat where the Libs are SO far away from ever getting it that “any other†outpolls the Libs by a considerable margin.
Melbourne – ALP at 1.00, “any other†at about 15 or 16 and the libs at 31.00 …. Even in the other safe seats, the Libs outpoll “any other†;-D”
I knew a young lib who was candidate for Melbourne, many years ago. he thought you could solve a Hospital problem (we had them even then!) by sending in the army!…. was that a “hear, hear” from Glen?
To be tedious, the market in Melbourne would have approximately zero weight of money. But in an inner suburb electorate, the Greens could outpoll the Libs… sorry the Howard/Costelloe monster.
GO, I guess it depends on which side of the fence you sit. I thought Swan did pretty well, even though, as you mention, he was caught out a bit by the McKew phoneout. Not sure myself why she’d want do this – I don’t think it did much for Howard last time.
Brandon did struggle – not because he can’t debate, he’s probably better than Swan – but because the circs had placed him in an impossible position.
I’m the other way round -prepared to call it for Labor now. It’s not just the polls. The Libs have got themselves in a hopeless position over the leadership, and it’ll be harder to defend over time. Labor merely has to hold off rubbing it in and let the consequences take care of it.
I read the SMH focus group thing canberra boy. I’d agree that on that reading they’d be entitled to regard the support as a bit soft. On the other hand, it also mentioned that anyone with strong feelings on IR was screened out, presumably to focus on ‘political’ and family concerns. You take that out and you’ve precluded the strongest turning point, particularly in regard to Howard’s credibility. It’s shot. Gusface was right. It’s over.
And as the political industry is again getting excited about the forthcoming campaign, I would recommend reading this piece that Hugh Mackay wrote following the 2004 election.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/hugh-mackay/it-wasnt-about-the-campaign-at-all/2004/10/10/1097346695661.html
Does anybody else notice a similarity between JWH’s comments in the DT, and Jeff “the Mouth”Kennett’s before the 1999 election?
But after this, he then tries to say it isn’t a “presidential”election. Me think paleface speak with forked tongue.
I note that Costelloe has discovered the word “hubris”. He uses it about Rudd, but is he looking at his Leader?. No matter, he’ll soon discover what “nemesis” means
Huge Mackay wrote the following on the 11 Oct 2004
“Don’t hold your breath, but one day it will occur to political party strategists that elections are rarely won or lost during election campaigns”
I agree, the voters have been wanting to get rid of Howard for years, sadly the ALP have been nothing short of pathetic and hopeless.
The Heartland is coming
“Barney said,
I have two words: OOOOOOOOOOHH Brother!!!!!!!!”
Brings tears to my eyes, Barney.
You know, Kevin Rudd does remind me a little of Gorgeous George, even a little of the young Cassius Clay.
Here’s a boxing analogy from a few weeks ago that will help bring a little more colour to the political discussion.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=170
Rudd is making a major speech today.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/rudd-addresses-the-faithful/2007/09/15/1189277026679.html
Anyone have any comments? Personally, I think it’s a good move considering the Libs look like they couldn’t organise their way out of a paper bag.
Aristotle (re #387 & #391), I have great respect for Hugh Mackay – thank you for pointing to these two pieces of his – I hadn’t got to today’s one yet in my hard-copy SMH. I agree with you about being cautious with focus-group work, and I have to say I don’t know what experience or reputation Nielsen has with focus groups. My feeling on the overall outcome is much the same as Hugh Mackay’s and others here (like Don at #390): it’s over already. That won’t stop Howard trying to claw back support, which is what I was pointing to at comment #370.
Is it my imagination or is this graph really hard to follow? re the Morgan poll.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
Liked your analogy Aristotle. My memory (dim as it is) was that Cassius Clay when he first appeared on the scene, was perceived as a loudmouth punk who was more lip than hip. He very quickly proved everyone wrong ie that he had skills and substance as well as the gift of the gab.
While we’re on analogies, i was pondering the Cabinet paralysis the other day and it seemed to me that the position we have at the moment is analagous to the end of the Cromwell era of the “Commonwealth”.
Cromwell so dominated his government that when he left the vacuum was so great that there was no successor and they had to invite the monarchy back.
This week we had the ludicrous situation of the Cabinet going: Howard is the problem. We’ll rely on Howard to get us out of the problem. This was a graphic an illustration of not only the lack of any gumption, but the dearth of any collective political nous. They could not work out that the only reason you take the desperate step of changing leader this close to a poll would be in the vain hope that the new leader might get a honeymoon period which you could exploit. Instead They’ve done the one thing sure to galvanise maximum antipathy to them: ie ensure people know that a vote for the coalition will get them Peter Costello as PM without offering him a honeymoon period to soften his image.
The coalition is a carcass swinging in the breeze.
Chris B,
I think the key to reading that graph is the little line that runs across it, it shows that the Liberal vote has over quite sometime been falling, and as expected post budget the Liberal position imporved
Looking at the line and you see the same thing in the other poll graphs the imporvement in Liberal vote while still improving is now starting to flat line, so the question is will the next period show further improvement which is what we would normally have expected but it may go the other way.
Reading that line I’m tipping the Liberals at best could get 46 TPP or as bad as 40 TPP, based on that the ALP could win between 22 – 44 seats