Morgan: 59-41

Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly face-to-face polls, today’s offering being a survey of 955 voters conducted on Saturday and Sunday (so before the early week leadership non-event). It shows a 1 per cent shift in the Coalition’s direction on two-party preferred, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition from 34.5 per cent to 36 per cent, Labor from 49 per cent to 51 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

558 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. [Simon so by your logic a vice president has no leadership experience…get with the programme…Costello has been deputy leader of the Libs for 12 years which gives him more leadership experience than Rudd will have in his political life!]

    Nah, you get with the programme girlfriend!

    Costello is rolled by Howard at every opportunity. During the last election campaign Howard was to select 1 big spending programme from a short list of 3, Howard chose all three (the entre, main, desert, and vegetarian option as Costello called it) but Costello just shut his mouth even though he knew it was dumb policy. That is a sign of no leadership, no guts, no ticker, no leadership future.

    [Simon he would not only ensure a Liberal loss if he challenged but the simple fact is he couldn’t challenge even if he wanted to for a simple explanation…]

    They are going to lose anyway, so it doesn’t really matter.

    Costello would’ve got the numbers because only TWO people in the entire cabinet were likely to vote for Howard (Rudock and Abbott), and even those two weren’t certains. Howard would’ve lost for the simple reason that he didn’t have anyone solidly behind him to work the numbers for him! Well, other than Janette…

    [Why would you try and destroy your party when you knew you couldnt win??? Get real Simon.]

    Because he knows that Howard can’t win. Get real Glen.

  2. I think the point to be made with higher default levels on housing loans is that WorkChoices will take away the extras you need to make it through – it will increase loan defaults.

  3. Agree… but please tell me what such ads are achieving? If carrying on about an individuals or parties mistakes makes you happy than fine but these ads do little for me and put simply they are waste of money.

  4. Simon.

    Exactly, Costello is not leader because he does not want to be, he realises he is on a hiding to nothing. He will bide his time, and become leader of the opposition for one term.

    If he can win the 2010 election he will be a hero, if he loses he will retire.

  5. Call me a pessimist, but I’m trying to find reasons to disbelieve all these polls. I’ve been scarred by Labor defeats over the last 11 years, and spooked by Howard’s capacity to steal election victories.
    I won’t believe a Rudd election victory until I see him giving a victory speech on election night.
    Perhaps to stop us all getting carried away with premature excitement, it might be better if the next few polls show the gap narrowing.

  6. Mal paying people very little in wages will eventually destroy the economy overall… why because people won’t have the money to spend and demand helps keep the economy moving… Read your history books on the 1932 Depression and ask why it occurred and put simply low wages and no money in the economy… That is why their was a worldwide boom during the fifties, sixties and seventies government spending and good paying jobs… This nonsense about jobs is just about selfish greed and a shift in incomes from the poor to the rich… put simply it is going back to the dark ages of 1880s’ and 90’s. Selfish thinking Mal.

  7. The telephone polls on TV programs always overwelmingly favour the conservatives. Is it because Liberal voters are more motivated to take part?

  8. 150
    mal Says:
    September 14th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
    kina

    no jobs will also increase loan defaults – anyone remember during the last labor government?

    Mal, loan defaults are increasing as we speak and we are in what Howard calls a full employment economy. As interest rates rise, more and more people are defaulting on loans. Come drive through my electorate of Werriwa here in SW Sydney. Remember what has been happening during the current liberal government? Whether people have jobs or not will not help them with loan defaults. Howard shouldn’t have promised to keep interest rates low. That was a stupid promise and it is coming back to haunt him in droves, probably the #2 problem after work choices. You can bet your last dollar that the election will be one of the last 2 October weekends. Howard maybe many things [insert appropriate adjective(s)] but I don’t think he isn’t a masochist. However, if the election is held in November or December, then I am wrong.

  9. Howard Hater – I am with you! The losses have been way too painful over the years and I won’t believe it till election night either.

    The present polls are too good to be true but if they are true then it will be like winning a lottery.

  10. Howard Hater you are spot on… PEOPLE SHOULD STOP CELEBRATING AND STOP BEING POLL DRIVEN… Howard gone is not gone until 8 pm on election night if at all…

  11. So Howard Hater, and I feel what you say, but please please please take a big deep breath, sit down, and have a nice long cup of green tea with jasmine.

    You want polls that have been almost boringly stagnant for 9 months (and yes I’m ignoring that annoying thingy Bryan made look like a move to the Government entirely) to suddenly move, that is for the Government who couldn’t get traction with anything suddenly to hit a nerve and get traction, just to be sure Kevin will win? Please please please – think about it some 30% of Australians think the PM should be given another term … we neeed movement away from the Govt not to it.

    *sighs sadly*

  12. “…Costello has been deputy leader of the Libs for 12 years which gives him more leadership experience than Rudd will have in his political life!”

    Glen, deputy leader of the Libs is nothing. He has not been deputy PM. Vaile is deputy PM. But even apart from that, how could deputy leader of the Libs trump Leader of the Opposition, even if it is for a longer period of time. I’m sure Rudd has learnt more about leadership as opposition leader than Costello has learnt as deputy of a political party. Has Costello shown much leadership over the last few weeks? Rudd shows plenty of very good leadership pretty much every day.

    Costello doesn’t seem especially fit to be PM in my mind. If he doesn’t have the political nous or courage to change his party for the better, how could he possibly have the nous or courage to change the country for the better? The latter is a much tougher job. I suspect that this is how the majority of people view Costello now.

    Howard and Costello have politically weakened each other. And now they have to combine forces to try to make up for the difference because as individuals, they each can’t overcome Rudd. But putting two against one probably won’t be enough either.

    Seems clearest to me who is the strongest leader, and it ‘aint on the government’s side.

    But really, Glen’s leadership experience argument is just as thought. He pretty much makes it up as he goes along.

  13. Fred (#112) – I’m firmly in favour of renewable power, and I believe that renewables can provide baseload, possibly even meeting all baseload power needs, but we need to be realistic. The Canberra Times report you pointed to doesn’t say that renewable energy can provide all of Aust’s baseload power within 7 years. It says the CSIRO report “claims solar thermal technology “is poised to play a significant role in baseload generation for Australia” and will be cost-competitive with coal within seven years.”

  14. Costello will never win.. he is unattractive to look at and vacumous on policy ideas… Just look at him does he appeal to the eye no… and this alone in my simplistic thinking will turn people off him… Rudd who in my mind has done little appeals to electorate because he is attractive to the eye and because he speaks very intelligently, may not mean much what he states but it comes out as if he is smart. On the other hand Costello is unattractive and a poor communicator and this is why Costello will never be a winner.

  15. I think the last rabbit for Howard may been him getting dumped and Costello taking over. But that rabbit has its balls in a sling now as the rabbit has been made a half future two-headed leader with the same old Howard. If the polls dont turn then this shock tactic is no longer available.

    Too bad morgan didn’t do a phone poll – or maybe he did and it is still coming -:)

  16. No Howard Hater you are spot on… it is best to be pessimistic… IN 2001 Labor people started celebrating before the event and look what happened and 2004 some were doing the same.. best to be careful with Howard and don’t underestimate him.. he is a very clever politician and a sneaky one at that…

  17. my first comment. i am tired of the housing affordability comparisons between now and the late eighties by the right wingers here-very few- and elsewhere on the net. it little matters that interest rates are lower now than they were then when houses cost so much more now.
    1987- bought first house- cost 50,000; interest 18 percent. 9000 bucks of interest a year.
    same house today- worth 300,000 in our inflated house market. interest 8.5 percent. 25,000 bucks. when was the house more affordable?
    i am sick of hearing this false argument about interest rates.
    in addition, wouldn’t it be nice if a politician started saying it’s the society instead of economy, stupid. i feel physically sick at the thought of the damage this goverment has done to the social fabric of australia.

  18. Howard Hater

    {Perhaps to stop us all getting carried away with premature excitement, it might be better if the next few polls show the gap narrowing.}

    No HH, in my opinion it would be wonderful to see these figures continue right through to polling day.

    Just think of how the Coalition will get more and more rattled as each poll gets published. The mistakes will increase and the desperation will open up the existing divisions within their ranks.

    The Libs will long remember the lesson learned that policies like Workchoices divides society and people will not stand to be continually deceived and lied to.

    I think that Tuesday’s Newspoll could even reach the magical figures of 62/38. This is possibly the absolute ceiling that could be achieved before eating into the traditional Liberal base which won’t shift under any circumstances. ie Glen, Max etc.

  19. Costello is paying 1.12 to 5.00 for the Labor candidate in Higgins. If the swing is large enough he will go, and then he won’t be around to moan about it any more. If anyone from Higgins is a poster here, can you tell us about the Labor candidate?

  20. Jasmine 158

    Thanks for the advice you gave for nervous pollsters.

    Although I don’t agree with Glen or read all his posts I do feel for him (sorry social work background) – it is really tough being on the losing side when you feel passionate about politics like I do or care about your country and its direction.

    I do not feel for Howard et al and have NO compassion left for him and will enjoy watching him suffer – if its not him suffering it will be me.

    Bring on the election I say!

  21. Hey, i just voted coalition on sky… Bring on the question if I want a nuclear waste dump in my back yard. I’d vote “only if it helped John”, but …. what’s that on his shoulder. Looks like a new head-in-waiting! let’s keep it And call it peter. Gee, now a can vote for two heads for the price of one! better move to Tas!..but wait, with the nuclear dump in my back yard, i could grow my own head, then we’d have two votes for John, not forgetting little Peter. What a pity he hasn’t got his own little ticker.

  22. #
    145
    Chris B Says:
    September 14th, 2007 at 5:42 pm

    Some of those TV polls are easy to rig. A party with a lot of money has a robot to do the work.

    You’re telling me. I just voted, then tried to vote again and it said “You can’t vote more than once in the same poll”. I then went into my Firefox settings and deleted my cookies, then went back and voted again. It then said “Thank you for voting in today’s Sky News poll.” The whole process took less than a minute.

    All of us should try it. It’s fun!!!

    Whatever the case, nothing at all should be read into these internet polls, even the Australian’s poll the other day. I’ll stick with Newspoll and Nielsen – and Morgan, maybe.

  23. I wish people would stop thinking the Liberals are gone, and to think that Costello will lose I’ m sorry but this will definitely not happen… he is in blue ribbon liberal territory.. the exact people who have gained under work nochoices and the tax cuts..

  24. Glen, good on ya! It takes a lot of courage to go against the tide on this board. I’m a dedicated Labor voter, but I appreciate intelligent commentary from conservatives such as yourself.
    It’s interesting Costello’s margin in Higgins is only 8.8%. It’d be funny if his seat became very marginal on election night.

  25. Don’t worry about Glen oldtimer. This experience will be good for him.
    Nobody should be a cheerleader for any party, simply because they support that party.

    Its not like we are talking football teams here, we are talking about who will best lead Australia.

    This is definitely not the Howard Liberals who have squandered opportunity after opportunity, undertaken xenophobic policies, wasted $2.6 billion in Government advertising, been involved in scandal after scandal from Hicks, Haneef, Children overboard, participated in the illegal war on Iraq, refused to ratify Kyoto or acknowledge climate change amongst other things.

    When Glen realises that the sky will not fall down nor will unions take over, destroy freedom and eat babies after an ALP victory, he may well come to an epiphany, that the Howard Liberals did not act in the best interests of Australia and the economy isn’t the be all and end all.

    Nationalism is the last refuse of a scoundrel, and there is no doubt Howard is a scoundrel.

    If Rudd ever gets as bad as Howard, I will turn on him just as quickly. There should be no cheerleading for any side, simply accountability, a quality sorely lacking in today’s politics.

  26. Howard’s Rabbit out of the hat was a chocolate one. His main problem is that due to global warming, it melted in the foil wrapper and when he opened it it ran out all down his legs to the floor.

    Costello made his big mistake in the first weeks of Parliament in 1996, when he tried to out do Keating and just came across as a poor imitation who left people of both political persuasions cold with his awful smirk.

    11 and a half years of that smirk will never be undone no matter what he does. It is him, and in no way will he ever be able to change and come across as having leadership abilities.

  27. can anyone who flirts between this site and ozelection 2007 ask jj why when i go to look it says i am forbidden. i rarely post and just like looking at tne analisys. might be a comp glitch. thanks
    ps.user name undecided
    pps decided now

  28. Asanque (178) I believe you might have something there. If I witness any ALP leader up to the sort of stunts that Howard and his crew/mob/lot have been up to, I reckon I’d dump the ALP as well. I’m not THAT rusted on.

    That said, I doubt some people will ever change and will just keep on doing the same things, voting for the same group of people, no matter what.

    I know someone very close to me who swore off Labor not too many years ago, when they (with Beazeley as leader) would not oppose the Pacific Solution. I was close, but I still voted Labor in 2001.

    Very gratified to see Rudd say yesterday that he would close the Nauru detention centre if elected. I hope THAT line of thinking continues.

  29. #179 LV

    Don’t know, mate, but you could try voting about 20 times for Labor and see if you can nudge the vote up a point. Do you have a spare 5 minutes or so??

  30. #162
    CB,
    You’re right, its a long time since I read that.

    Actually the report itself, which some people distributed after it fell off the back of a truck, says that the necessary solar thermal stations could be built within 7 years if we start now.
    And the excerpt in the Times adds its cost estimate to that.

    The technology is there its just the political will that is missing as is evidenced by the official silencing of the report.
    Since then of course things have got worse with the demise and/or departure of companies involved in renewables.
    Anyway here’s another link with a different but similar prognosis.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/sustainable-energy-has-powerful-future/2007/04/12/1175971264442.html?page=2
    Generically speaking the key points are:
    cheaper in the long term cf coal, cheaper by far than nuke
    clean, minimal carbon
    safe [particularly cf nuke waste]
    base capacity included

  31. “If Rudd ever gets as bad as Howard, I will turn on him just as quickly. There should be no cheerleading for any side, simply accountability, a quality sorely lacking in today’s politics.”

    Well put. I actually voted for Howard in 1996 and 1998, until I began to see what kind of a PM he was rapidly becoming. And even though Rudd is far from perfect, and even a bit too conservative for my liking, he (and Labor) is at least better for the national interest in my estimation. It’s time to redress the enormous imbalance that has occurred under Howard.

    But if Rudd starts to become as selfish and incompetent as Howard, then my support will be withdrawn. It’s very simple, really.

  32. 188
    marky marky says Says:
    September 14th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
    183# Perhaps but can conservative voters think?

    Marky marky – if they have just defaulted on their mortgage and have to put their home up for sale, you can betcha lots of conservatives will discover how to think really fast ;-D

  33. I’m sure someone could write a program to automatically vote for you favourite party, then delete the cookie. But then someone could write a program to trace who’s rigging the TV polls. Then you end up on a TV current affairs show, being interviewed while your hiding behind something. Discrediting the party you voted for.

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