Phoney war dispatches: anti-climax edition

• The Prime Minister tells us we can “rest assured” the current sitting of parliament will proceed to its conclusion, which means no election announcement until at least September 20.

• On Tuesday, Canberra’s WIN Television News reported of an internal poll – apparently from the Liberal Party – which pointed to a Labor win in the renowned bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. Yesterday, we heard that the Prime Minister had used polling from that very same seat to sell the party room the idea that the election could still be won.

• Labor has been making hay from the Liberals’ apparent lack of preparedness, with candidates still to be chosen in 14 seats including marginal Labor Banks. And can anyone out there solve the mystery of the Liberals’ number three Senate position in Western Australia? This has been a winning prospect at every election since parliament was enlarged in 1984, yet the candidate’s identity is either yet to be decided or a closely guarded secret (UPDATE – It now emerges the candidate is Michaelia Cash, industrial relations lawyer and daughter of state upper house MP George Cash).

• Further Labor pot-stirring in the west, where an ad placed in yesterday’s West Australian raised questions over the political future of Julie Bishop, Education Minister and member for Curtin. The ad referred to “speculation” Bishop would be drafted into state politics to replace floundering Opposition Leader Paul Omodei. This idea was first mooted in the immediate aftermath of the Court government’s defeat in 2001, when Bishop was party to an ill-considered scheme to swap seats with an uncooperative Colin Barnett.

The Mercury reports of a Galaxy poll gauging opinion on the West Tamar pulp mill, conducted on behalf of mill opponents Investors for the Future of Tasmania. It finds 41 per cent opposition from a national sample of 1004, and 21 per cent support. An implausible 64 per cent of the former group said it would affect the way they would vote. The Mercury also speaks of a Wilderness Society poll which found 53 per cent opposition in Bass and 35 per cent support.

• Melbourne election buffs with $66 to spare might like to make note of a seminar being held this evening, Election 2007: Polls, Damned Polls and Democracy!, starting from 6.15pm at the Westgate Room on Level 41 of the Rialto South Tower. Speakers include Nick Economou from Monash University, Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan Research, Tony Douglas of Essential Media Communications and Charles Richardson of Crikey, all brought to you by the Australian Market and Social Research Society,

• Lest anyone think this site’s readership is a representative sample, Sally Jackson of The Australian reports that radio listeners have “turned from news talk to music during the past two months”. Station bosses blame “a heavy news cycle dominated by stories on interest rate rises, the APEC summit and the ‘phony’ federal election campaign”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

440 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: anti-climax edition”

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  1. I agree Glen – why would you go to the polls now if you were Howard?

    Presumably the Govt. are looking at some form of further Workchoices roll-back, which will need to be drafted and cleared with their masters in the Business Council.

  2. Will (92),
    wouldn’t you think that if Howard goes soon, he’ll go for a longer campaign period? He’s clearly stated he won’t call it before the end of next week – that being the case, the earliest date would be 27 October. I can’t see him going for a minimum 33 day campaign. Based on that reasoning alone, I don’t buy the advertising rumour.
    Can anyone confirm that bit about departments going into maintenance mode?

  3. [I know if i was the man of steel id be waiting until at least December, after all Menzies had many successful December campaigns….]

    Glen…the man of steel would simply have had his political rivals murdered and be done with it….

    Oh, not THAT man of steel you say?

  4. 96 Albert F Says: ““Overall, Mr Mackerras is tipping the new Senate to be composed of 36 Coalition senators (down 3), 33 Labor (up five), six Greens (up two) and one Family First (no change).”

    Thats probably a reasonable outcome for Rudd. It means he just has to strike a deal with the greens. I’m not sure a DD is a certainty.”

    I don’t think the ALP is going to have any problems with the greens getting through the legislation it needs. The specific big ones are the recent lock-up of the broadband funding, and the passing of the IR reforms. I also don’t think there’s going to be as much difference as you’d imagine regarding climate-change policies either.

    With that break-up of the senate the conservatives become irrellevant in every legislature in Australia.

  5. [ Menzies had many successful December campaigns… ]

    They have the wrong leader and the wrong policies and they think the timing will save them. So it doesn’t matter what policies you have as long as you go as close to Xmas as possible? I’m sure all those employees, especially in Retail businesses, who have had their overtime ripped off them will be so happy about working long hours during Xmas without penalty rates that they’ll rush to help spread joy and good will towards the government.

  6. [Oh, not THAT man of steel you say?]

    Given that Howard heads the highest taxing government in history, he is the “man of steal”, not steel.

  7. Howard simply cannot wait too long for the election, and another possible interest rate rise. Another rise just after the US Fed droppped interest rates would be cataclysmic.

    Nov 3 is the only day he can pick that staves off complete annihilation.

  8. I don’t get the logic of voting for Howard now knowing he will resign soonish and Costello will take over; what, is Peter still on his P-plates? still doing his certificate 4 at TAFE? If he is capable of being PM then why not now?
    I am reminded of the old Manfred Mann song (so old Johnny might remember it, although i think he would have been a 2CH man);
    “But if you gotta go, go now, or else you gotta stay all night”

  9. I am reminded of the old Manfred Mann song (so old Johnny might remember it, although i think he would have been a 2CH man);
    “But if you gotta go, go now, or else you gotta stay all night”

    That’s Bob Dylan, ironically Howard’s favourite.

  10. Albert F @ 39, Aristotle @ 98 (or thereabouts).

    We have all read that Possum thinks the swings are going to be in safe liberal seats and only 4% swings in Labor seats. Much as I like the possums’s work, frankly this defies reality.

    The demographic most affacted by Workchoices live in currently Labor or marginal Govt. seats located in the outer suburbs. These are also the seats that have swung to the coalition heavily in the last two elections. The liberal candidates in safe ALP seats are unlikely to get a brass razoo from central office.

    Where in my opinion the big swings will be:

    With Jackie Kelly retiring Lindsay could swing by 15%.
    With no lib candidate as yet- Banks by 10+%
    Greenway – 8 – 10%
    Macarthur 8 – 10%
    Dobell – I think a lib loss, but less swing as it will get the spending.

    If Julia Gillard doesn’t get 10 – 12% in Lalor, she should seriously look at her own backyard.
    Holt – 10%

    Lots of places for a big swing and the result won’t change.

  11. Policies are completely irrelevant to the voters that will decide this election. What decides elections is leadership. Delaying in the hope to introduce new policy legislation is not going to work.

    Just look at the leaked C/T analysis and it’ll show you the most significant issues aren’t policy areas. I think most people would be surprised how little significance ‘the economy’ has. What does have an impact is ‘strong leader’, ‘right direction’ etc.

    Also if you look at academic analysis of exit polling etc. you will see people don’t base their votes on policy. There’s very little understanding of policy in the public. Ever wondered why election ads are so dumb? Why they don’t feature huge policy statements? Because policy is irrelevant, apart from to say you’ve got some.

    These aren’t issues that are going to be helped by another few weeks of sittings.

  12. We’ve already said
    So long
    I don’t wanna see you go, oh you’d better
    Go now go now, go now (Go now)
    Don’t you even try
    Tellin’ me that you really don’t want it to end this way
    ‘Cause darlin’, darlin’, can’t you see I want you to stay
    Yeah, yeah

    Since you gotta go, oh you’d better
    Go now go now, go now (Go now)

    Moody Blues 😉

  13. RE: ‘the Tampa ‘idea saving Howard or at least turning the slide around –

    this proposal ignores the fact that while it may have worked last time ,people are far more informed now about the capacity of this government and it’s departments to deny, misinform and outright bare-faced lie.
    Therefore even if there was some kind of Event I don’t think they would have the unqestioned belief of the voters this time.

    In otherwords they are completely stuffed no matter what they do.

  14. The rendition of ‘Stairway to Kevin’ in last nights Chaser may also be an electoral turning point as the satirical blow torch is starting to be turned on Kevin Rudd. And it was pretty vicious.

    In my opinion, some of Kim Beazley’s image issues came to the fore in 2001 when programs such as Backberner turned on him.

    Not to say that the satirical blowtorch won’t be turned on the Libs, but they have been getting it for 11 years already so it doesn’t cut through to the same extent.

  15. Policies are completely irrelevant to the voters that will decide this election. What decides elections is leadership. Delaying in the hope to introduce new policy legislation is not going to work.

    Sure, but showing that an opposition tax policy doesn’t add up (Barnett, 2005; Howard, 1987) or getting the oppositions base to applaud your policy (Latham, 2004) makes the opposition look like eejits, which can have an impact.

  16. I would recommend to anyone who has not yet seen the betting market graphs at Bryans Oz Politics site, to do so.

    I’ve seen exponential progressions, geometric progressions and logarithmic progressions, but I’ve never before seen vertical progressions.

    It’s extraordinary.

    http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/

  17. 113 blackburnpseph Says: The demographic most affacted by Workchoices live in currently Labor or marginal Govt.

    Actually, a sizable portion of the people most affected by workchoices, are the young-adult children of people living in safe coalition seats in leafy suburbs.

    Hence the swing.

  18. Optimist, this is the wierdest election ever: the campaign has been running all year long and the Howard has essentially already lost. The longer the campaign lasts, the worse it gets. While he cannot find the right moment to do the necessary thing and have an election, the public are not likely to reward him for prolonging the agony.

    There is now an air of anti-climax about all this. The public will want the melodrama to end and for life to return to normal. This means the election should be called sooner rather than later.

    IMHO, if Howard has not so far sensed any deep public hostility against him, he can be sure that the longer the delay, the more likely it is that the desire to vote will turn into a groundswell of resentment.

  19. # 122 – Howard said he only liked Dylan for his voice…not his lyrics. Which is a bit like saying you drink beer for the taste. he also said his fave Midnight Oil song was “Beds Are Burning”. The man is a walking cartoon.

  20. The workchoices impact was never going to be a direct impact, and I told one of those Canberra boys working for the opposition this years ago.

    Work choices is the definitive sword of that greek (or was it some other culture) dude. It is obvious it is sharp and heavy and is going to hurt like hell if it lands. That is what it is, people know it, and that is what is scarry.

    That it has actually fallen so heavily on retail and service sectors at the top of the boom helps because it shows how easily it falls, even when things are good, and that if you happen to be less than powerful (as we all are in a job market in a downturn) it is going to cut you up.

    Sermon over.

    With interest rate rises, and housing unaffordability etc it builds the picture that ordinary Australians (those 10-15% who actually change votes, not who pretend to here) aren’t taking their share of the cream of the boom. I’m not a Gittens fan and don’t think they are greedy, they just want a fair go, and a fair share, and workchoices is the very opposite.

    Second sermon over.

  21. The only way the Libs can significantly change the dynamics of this election is to tear up WorkChoices and admit they were wrong all along. They certainly aren’t going to do that. Necking Howard would get them a short-term boost but since Costello is just as wedded to WC as Howard, the bounce would soon unbounce.

  22. There is one possible reason Howard may wait for a December election and it’s to do with the Christmas season. This is the time of year when Australians become very focussed on money (because they’re spending bucketloads of it). In this kind of environment a tax cut or similar kind of policy could go down very well.

    Just a theory, as others have mentioned there are good reasons for going earlier as well.

  23. The only way the Libs can significantly change the dynamics of this election is to tear up WorkChoices and admit they were wrong all along.

    And it’s hard to see how such an admission at this stage in the cycle could be anything but a negative, either. So they are truly damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

  24. 127 Matt Says: There is one possible reason Howard may wait for a December election and it’s to do with the Christmas season. This is the time of year when Australians become very focussed on money (because they’re spending bucketloads of it).

    I’m not sure it’s going to be helped when the stories come out of all of the retail service people don’t get paid overtime anymore because of workchoices, and this christmas is going to be harder for them than the previous one.

    Christmas season brings depression to a LOT of people. An interest rate rise, tax-cuts that are immediately swallowed up by increased inflation, at the same time as a reduction in entitlements and therefore less pay, when the government is telling you ‘you’ve never had it so good’ is not what I would consider to be a sound electioneering framework.

  25. [a tax cut or similar kind of policy could go down very well.]

    If they want to do that they would need to enact it by next Thursday. If they leave it as an election promise, Rudd can just say “well they are just saying that to try to win the election.”

  26. You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately… Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!

  27. I think that the Liberal ‘strategy’ is just to allow a bit more time and pray that the ALP release a policy of monstrous stupidity; that Kevin Rudd is hit by a bus; or that there is a nuclear strike on Australia.

  28. Re #132

    It’s really unclear how Morgan do this polling – they say continuously, but how many people per day? How many make up this particular poll and how recently were they asked?

  29. Morgan Eden-Monaro poll: 62-38 in Labor’s favour.

    No, no. Internal party polling shows that the Liberals are just ahead in Eden-Monaro

    …of the Greens

  30. The government is in a mess. After the tension of the last few days, there is no resolution. Rumours of a spill, then Howard publicly staring down a revolt. Then pretending everything is fine and the comments were directed at the oppostion. So everythings fine, there was no leadership challenge and we’re all united. Except that the govt now seems to have morphed into a two-headed monster. Who will be PM if the libs get in? How long will Howard stay if he’s returned? What’s Costello’s role in all this? He’s not deputy leader, that’s Mark Vaile isn’t it?

    And now they want to move the story away from this freaking mess onto policy. No-one’s listening. There’s only one thing driving this shambles of a government now. The polls.

    Next week will be interesting. This isn’t over by a long way.

  31. Aristotle 97

    Thanks for that.

    It suggests a reverse of the 1998 result where the ALP got big swings where it was no use.

    This time they could be the right amount of swing to be a threat any seat with less than a 10% margin.

    On the other hand a raging optimist for the Libs might concluded they can survives by absorbing the big swings in the safer seats and limitings in the more marginal seats.

    I think they’d have more luck getting a stampede of cattle to plant a flower bed.

  32. Hear, Hear DP

    the arrogance is breathtaking – I’m not ready to go so I’ll keep the whole country on hold.
    Can’t see how that is a vote winner.

  33. The Ozpolitics graph of the Centrebets odds resembles hitting a brick wall rather than a trend up.

    Brace yourselves for a shock: Howards claim that the polls are saying that Eden-Monaro is winnable is a big pork pie.

    Sign me up for Mandarin classes!

  34. Pi: I agree there are plenty of negatives the ALP and media could point out in such a strategy. I do think the best (maybe only) chance the Libs have got of turning this around is to have undecided and soft voters walking into the booths on polling day thinking “Gee Rudd’s a good guy, but Howard isn’t that bad and I really could use that extra $$ that he’s promising…”

    Additionally, I think if the election doesn’t happen till December I may just go mad waiting for it.

  35. Sir Wellington Boot, on Henry Thornton’s site, is suggesting that JWH has been tipped off by Dubya about an imminent strike on Iran, and that JWH is holding out on calling the election in the vain hope that this will be Tampa 2007.

    http://www.henrythornton.com/article.asp?article_id=4844

    Someone on another site claims that the following article is the source of the rumour:

    [Harper’s Magazine –

    Speaking From Experience, Part II: Former CIA official expects war with Iran
    DEPARTMENT Washington Babylon
    BY Ken Silverstein
    PUBLISHED September 4, 2007

    Until recently, I thought the odds that the United States would attack Iran were less than fifty-fifty, but the chances of a military confrontation are clearly growing (as my colleague Scott Horton has been reporting on for some time). Earlier this year, I asked a former CIA official, who was stationed in the Persian Gulf during the first Gulf War and served in Iraq after the 2003 invasion, if he though the administration was planning a military strike. “I don’t think the administration is about to carry out military action,” he told me. “The military does not want to do this. We will lose planes if there is a massive air strike over Iran. We’ll have pilots killed and captured.”

    Yesterday, I called the official—who speaks with me only off the record—and he now believes a military strike is likely. Here are his comments, which I offer not as an endorsement of an invasion, but because of his knowledge and insights into what might lay ahead:

    It looks like a military strike is in the works and I base that on two things: observable fact and the rhetoric emanating from the White House. There’s a lot of movement of troops and materiel into the region–it’s stuff the United States can’t hide. It’s a huge expense to put Navy battle groups in the Gulf and we’ve got three of them there. We’ve also moved new fighter planes to Guam amidst much public fanfare. You can plainly see the upturn in US Naval activity in and around the Norfolk Naval installations. The movement of ships, re-supply, ammunition loading and general level of activity is high.

    The Naval facilities and the ammunition loading areas are well known, and the activity is readily visible, especially at night. There’s a stream of ships coming in to load up and when they take off new ones come in. There’s only one part of the world where all that stuff is heading. Also, everyone I know who would be involved in an attack on Iran–pilots and other air assets–is gone. Normally some of them are around but now all of them are away at the same time.

    The other evidence of a likely strike is all the harsh talk from the White House. President Bush has been talking about Iran a lot more recently, and he put the Revolutionary Guard on the list of terrorist groups. Whatever you think of the president, he has said he won’t let Iran move forward with its nuclear program. I’d take him at his word.

    And it’s doable. The only part of the military that’s not stretched to the limits in Iraq is the Air Force. It will be a multi-day, multi-target air campaign–not ‘Shock and Awe,’ which wasn’t shocking and didn’t awe anyone, but a savage blow struck against President Ahmadinejad. We shouldn’t hit Iran’s Navy or Air Force but target the nuclear sites and the Revolutionary Guard. A measured response helps Ahmadinejad because he’s saying the Americans won’t attack, or can’t hurt, Iran. A disproportionate response will be hard for him to explain to the Iranian public.]

  36. Costello has been severly damaged by the latest display of political ineptitude,he has demonstrated to all but the willfully blind that he lacks the courage of his own convictions.When the man he believes is going to lead his party to a devastating loss and has clearly lost the confidence of the cabinet, Costello failed to show leadership.His main chance and he blew it. He should never get the leadership he is afraid of a fight.

  37. The most interesting thing to me about that Morgan poll is this,

    Percentage who say the L-NP would be better for [the] issue:

    Reducing the taxes you and your family pay
    Pre-Rudd 40
    Post-Rudd 29

    That’s a big thing… this is the personal economy. If a majority of people now believe they’ll be financially better off with Rudd that’s a big problem for the Coalition.

  38. blackburnpseph 122

    “The rendition of ‘Stairway to Kevin’ in last nights Chaser may also be an electoral turning point as the satirical blow torch is starting to be turned on Kevin Rudd. And it was pretty vicious.”

    I doubt it. I thought it was pretty tame and had the subtext was that Rudd will be elected. One of Rudd’s strengths is an ability to make and take a joke. Something Howard has always struggled with. Its why Rudd can appear on FM radio but Howard avoids it.

  39. Actually, the detail of the Morgan poll is in the table. The sample for Eden-Monaro appears to be over a two-year period, July 2005-June 2007. That’s one way to get enough people in an individual seat to get a decent sample size.

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