Movement at the station

I have just awoken to a barrage of “Turnbull and Downer deny calling for PM to quit” headlines, capped by Andrew Bolt‘s sensational assertion that Peter Costello will be Prime Minister tomorrow. No time to absorb any of this, but a new thread is clearly in order.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

647 comments on “Movement at the station”

Comments Page 7 of 13
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  1. [Surely Howard will promise to serve the full parlimentary term as PM if elected]

    He should just make this promise. Big deal if he ends up breaking it, it isn’t like he could be voted out!

  2. I have just read Sir David Flint in yesterdays Crikey. He fantasises that Rudd will jump onto the sinking ship to rescue it and all the floundering fools aboard. Imagine Rudd joining the Libs now!

    I’m sure that David and Alan Jones will fall asleep in each others arms the next few nights, weeping themselves into a state of hysterical exhaustion.

  3. [The mischief train has run out of puff @ the station.

    Howard is still the train driver, and is right on the rails.]

    The damage has already been done. The government is starting to look like a rabble.

  4. On the question of Peter Costello producing a better result, obviously a number of Liberals and many conservative commentators believe he would. I believe it would be no better and Bennelong would be a guaranteed loss. I do actually believe that Malcolm Turnbull would be capable of producing a much better result, but that doesn’t look likely at this stage. It seems to be Peter Costello.
    It would be harder for Liberals to vote in Malcolm Turnbull than Peter Costello even though he may well be a much better choice.
    They are in a hell of a mess. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
    This latest bout of speculation has weakened John Howard and the Coalition even more.

  5. Has anybody got a source for this apparent party meeting cancellation? I find it strange that channel 10 apparently broke it 40 minutes ago and nobody has ran with it since.

  6. Rupert those rails are really rusty and the sleepers are dangerous. There’s a wonky bridge coming up which needed repairing with money squirrelled away by Peter Costello.

  7. Reports of damage to the train are quite exaggerated.

    All of you who were desperately trying to shovel coal into the engine room of a train wreck have run out of puff.

  8. You’re dead right Rupert…Howard is still the train driver, and is right on the rails.

    BUT IS HEADING STRAIGHT INTO TRAIN WRECK!!!

  9. Mark Riley on Seven seems to think that it is still on.

    Seems to be some confusion about whether it’ll be a Liberal party room meeting or a JOINT coalition party meeting (the Liberal leadership is not a question for the joint party room).

  10. Meeting is back on. Was called off a week ago by the Whips, but with the hares running, it’s back on in the morning ahead of the joint partyroom meeting.

  11. Here’s the government’s spin at The Australian: link. Apparently there has been a consideration of ‘all the options’ and there will be no change of leadership.

    It also contains a reference to Costello’s position, the first I’ve seen.

    It only leaves about a million questions:

    – where did the Sky News story come from?
    – what’s going on with the party room meeting?
    – has there been an informal poll of some description?
    – what do the numbers actually look like?
    – how do they hope to recover from this now that the genie’s out of the bottle?

  12. Rupert the coal is being shovelled by someone in the liberal party, the real question is why.

    This is not a media beat up, someone is fanning the flames and that person is in cabinet.

  13. Could I just ask a general question… it seems that Mr. Turnbull is held in fairly high regard by many posters on this blog. Why is this? Am I missing something… I just can’t see this potential for greatness in him. If he reminds me of anyone – it’s Ian MacLachlan – he’s got the same whiff of the dilettente…

  14. Rupert: welcome to the board! I won’t agree with any of your views, but we need a few more conservative voices here to balance things up a little bit more.
    The Liberals have signed their death warrant, although Costello probably would have done even worse! “Disunity is death!”
    Check out portlandbet.com: the ALP is favoured to win 76 seats and is getting mighty close to the Coalition in a dozen or so others.
    As long as I still get my Rodent concession of defeat speech, I’ll be a happy camper.

  15. It is a fine train, and bright shiny one with those lovely black clouds of burnt coal smog in the air … sadly we need a government for the current age, not the start of the industrial revolution. ….

  16. [- what do the numbers actually look like?]

    Surely Howard still has them 2/3 to 1/3. If it was close to 50/50, then a formal challenge would be on.

    If it is close, then Howard has to go…

  17. The train is definately running down a steep hill without brakes. It might have made the first corner but the big one is coming up ahead and the party is shovelling in more coal. Even if the train doesn’t crash, which is looking more and more likely, it is bound to lose a lot of carriages.

  18. I think the media is still making the mistake of seeing this implosion in the form of a challenge. Matt Price is wrong to draw comparisons between Rudd’s silence and Costello’s. Rudd was silent so not to box himself in while getting a challenge ready. Costello is silent because he has nothing to say. He can do nothing but wait for it to come to him because he has no grounds on which to take it.

    The Liberals can’t get their head around why they are losing so first they ignore the polls (and the media follows) then they see the leader that would give them the best result as the problem (and the media follows).

  19. JHo wont let it go at any cost. And Smirk won’t challenge, hasn’t the gonads. And to be fair I wouldn’t touch the lib leadership (if I was inclined that way) with a ten metre barge pole at the mo!

  20. By the way I don’t agree that this is all bad news for Howard. Pitching himself against a gutless coalition doesn’t make him look too bad (it does muck up the current strategy of playing up the team though …).

  21. [Costello is silent because he has nothing to say. He can do nothing but wait for it to come to him because he has no grounds on which to take it.]

    But Costello could kill all this off if he announced “I will not accept the leadership”.

    There is no way they would go from Howard to Turnbull, he is too inexperienced.

  22. Maybe Andrew Bolt might jump ship and start supporting Rudd?
    I don’t mind him, he’s a smarter bloke than that fat oaf Ackerman.

  23. Disagree Shrike.

    All this leadership speculation shows that the Liberal Party is in disarray. This enables Labor to sustain the charge that if they can’t keep their own house in order then how can they run the country?

    And at the same time this denies them clear air in the media to get their message across.

    Both of these things have to count against the government.

  24. “Pitching himself against a gutless coalition doesn’t make him look too bad (it does muck up the current strategy of playing up the team though …).”
    Yeah, but what’s the point of having a strong leader when that leader is not going to hang around. All it means is that the rest of the rabble don’t have the guts to lead. Who is going to vote for that?

  25. [He probably wouldn’t do that as he would still want it if delivered to him on a plate.]

    Very true. His gutlessness has hurt himself, but now it is hurting his party.

  26. John Rocket I think many of us are impartial observers and some see that Malcolm has the makings of a PM. I don’t share the view that because he is immensely wealthy he is automatically disqualified from consideration. After all Kevin Rudd is not exactly impoverished.
    He is relatively small l liberal and has a very good brain.
    He has been planning to be PM from the time he entered politics, just as John Howard planned to be PM from his teens, as did Harold Wilson from the age of ten. He is immensely ambitious and has the killer instinct which Peter Costello obviously lacks.
    It would appear though that he may have to wait a very long time to be PM and may get too old waiting.
    Evidently the Libs have decided to fall in line behind their crippled leader.
    All we need now is for Peter Costello to make a supportive speech and the leadership issue will be dead, for a week at least, until the next poll!

  27. it does muck up the current strategy of playing up the team though

    Good point.

    One of their very, very few positives for the Coalition as identified in that Crosby-Textor report has just been unceremoniously smashed into tiny pieces. And it increasingly looks to be for no real reason, if they’re not going to go through with a challenge.

  28. [He is relatively small l liberal and has a very good brain.]

    On social issues yeah (who could be more conservative on social issues than Howard), but I’m sure he fully supports WorkChoices.

  29. The Piping Shrike at 327… I think that certainly the glass half full reading of the event! Though, it’s probably how they’ll try to play it /sotto voce/!

  30. #
    300
    red wombat Says:
    September 11th, 2007 at 5:58 pm

    Watching the libs implode is nearly as good as a date with jennifer hawkins.

    🙂 I’ve never had a date with Jennifer Hawkins. What was it like?

    At least we all get to watch the Libs implode.

  31. Why assume that Howard will not hang around? I agree with Keating, he is Araldited to the seat. I think people are assuming he will go because, with no policies, they can’t imagine what on earth he would do.
    None of this is much good for the party, of course, I’m just saying that compared to his pathetic colleagues, Howard looks principled.

    I agree Simon, Costello is doing no good for the party – and they will pay him back in kind after the election. He will never be leader.

  32. No Martin that’s not what I said. I said “colleagues” not “the House.

    In practice it’s the same thing, but in theory the PM needs confidence from the House. It doesn’t matter which bunch of people give it.

    Normally confidence from the House is ensured by ensuring confidence of the majority grouping, so if the coalition declares support for a particular person, the GG can assume that that person has support in the House.

    In rare cases, a PM may organise a different bunch of people to support them in the house, in which case while the ministry will probably change the PM may continue to advise the GG and have that advice accepted, which is what happened with Hughes.

  33. I think Turnbull will be a real threat. If the Senate stays liberal and is played well, ie he makes a good fist of it, he will have a shot first time, and Rudd might lose. I know it is a long shot, but he is new enough to engender newness. There just isn’t time now to build a new look and feel.

    Frankly I understand he needs support but you can’t have newness with Treasurer Downer. I don’t think you can have credible Govt with Treasurer Downer, so Downer would have to go. Turnbull, Bishop and Shrek (who can shake off worstchoices), with some new blood that isn’t extreme white wing.

    I don’t have Canberra contacts and I don’t know why but this still feels to me like an attempt to make sure Costello isn’t able to be opposition leader (assuming he wants it). If they keep the senate then being opposition leader for 18 months will be fun.

  34. Point is, if the GG refused to follow Howard’s advice, he would be doing so purely off his own advice and instinct, not under any constitutional power or convention.

    The GG would be able to consult with the Deuty PM and other senior members to sound them out, similar to the way Casey consulted with McEwen and others after Holt disappeared (although that was a slightly different issue).

  35. [Foreign Minister Alexander Downer has publicly backed Prime Minister John Howard to lead the Liberal Party to the election.

    Mr Downer’s support is likely to calm the speculation that has been dogging the party.

    The speculation kicked into overdrive after a report this morning that Mr Downer did not believe Mr Howard was the best man to lead the Liberals.

    This afternoon on Sky News he has rejected that.

    “John Howard is the best person to lead our country and therefore the best person to lead our party into the election,” he said.

    “We’ve obviously been a bit concerned about our position, thought about it and discussed it in terms of the leadership of the Government and the leadership of the party.

    “We are of the view that the best thing is to lock in behind John Howard.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2030243.htm?section=justin

  36. {attempt to make sure Costello isn’t able to be opposition leader (assuming he wants it). }

    Costello said in answer to a question by a journalist about an hour ago, that if asked, he would accept the leadership.

  37. Thanks for that considered response, Richard.

    I too agree that being immensely wealthy doesn’t disqualify a person… it makes it very tough though, lots of attacks can be launched upon such a person. I don’t know about ‘the killer’ in Malcolm… there’s a killer in Mr. Abbot… and there’s a psycho-killer in Mr. Nelson… or as Dinsdale named him… Spanky (ahh, it makes me laugh! I can just see him in a NAZI uniform with a riding crop… standing over an ‘aryan’ chick) but Malcolm, I haven’t seen much evidence on the basis of his public performances.

    I remember a time when Mr. Costello was also considered a small-l and something of a saviour of the small-l-ers… it seems to me that there is an eagerness to proclaim any liberal who isn’t a lunatic as being somehow a moderate and somehow better. I guess I don’t know enough about other aspects of Mr. Turnbull’s beliefs (beyond the Republic) to comment on his small-l ness but I’ll try to keep an open mind.

  38. I don’t think the Fadden Government faced a confidence motion at the end

    The Budget was amended (by $1) which has the same effect.

  39. [I remember a time when Mr. Costello was also considered a small-l and something of a saviour of the small-l-ers… it seems to me that there is an eagerness to proclaim any liberal who isn’t a lunatic as being somehow a moderate and somehow better.]

    It’s all relative to Howard! In terms of economics, Costello is the same as Howard, but perhaps not quite as willing to buy votes with big spending promises. Socially he is more progressive, but not that much.

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