Roy Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face poll comes in at the lower end of market expectations for Labor, whose two-party lead has narrowed to 54.5-45.5 from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49.5 per cent to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s up from 36.5 per cent to 41 per cent. This is from a sample of 1271 voters, which is unusually small for a Morgan face-to-face.
Morgan’s polls aren’t worth much, and his commentary on his polls are worth even less. Let’s see what happens with Newspoll.
Adam,
Will you be adding Paterson to your maps soon? This could be interesting to watch on election night.
OK I will do Paterson next
The TREND doesn’t gel with its own Phone polls, the other polls (Galaxy, Newspoll) and is inconsistent with its own F2F except with 4 polls ago when there was a sudden dip, yet to be explained.
AND I recall that the F2F was all year 2 points above the phone polls until these changes. A think we have a change in Morgan’s methods. If it is a new method then these results are meaningless until the method proves itself. Anyone been polled lately by Morgan F2F? Seems they tried their new method a couple of times, then their old one and now their new method again. OR is it something else.
We also have the matter of people thinking the Coalition doesn’t have such an advantage on economic matters (the only positive they really have on labor). This has to indicate the public looking more favourably on Labor or discounting the Govts credentials – either way it should firm up the Labor vote not cause a sudden large dip.
Time to abandon the Morgan F2F and follow the phone polls instead.
Can’t say that I believe anything has changed.
Probably a TPP 55-57/43
Hi Kina (54), your selectivity and wishful thinking make you far worse (and less funny) than another poster on this website who’ll remain nameless.
A-C: To be consistent a Morgan F2F of 54.5 would be similar to a Newspoll of 53/47 – but Newspoll has been firm on 55-56 for most of the year. Thus the sudden number of low Morgans indicate new method or MEO operating each time. Not selective, looking for consistency and logic.
MOE
“I’m amazed that Newspoll can put the Green vote at 4.5-5%, Morgan at 6.5-7.5% and Galaxy and Nelson close to or at 10%.”
Newspoll has had a systematic bias that underestimates the Green vote by about 2%. Paul Norton went over it at LP a few months ago: http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/04/17/newspoll-and-the-greens/
If you look at the charts at Ozpolitics (http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/#green), you can see the Morgan and Newspoll moving averages are pretty in sync, just 2% apart. Nielsen has historically overestimated the Green vote, but since the Rudd ascension, it’s been pretty close to Morgan.
d
The difference between Rudd and Latham is that Rudd will be polite and couch his opposition to the Iraq war in diplomatic language – the man is an experienced foreign diplomat, used to handling people like Bush.
And, every time George W pokes his nose into Australian politics, it hurts his mate the rodent.
So, I don’t see this as a negative for the Ruddster.
These charts clearly demonstrate Morgan F2F has for some years polled at around 2 points different to Newspoll. Hence the current oddity with the past 4 F2F. If there has been no change in method then applying MOE to maintain consistency and correlation this Morgan should be around 56.5/43.5
Labor
Govt
I don’t dispute the fact that the polls will move towards the govt at some stage and that the election may well be a close and hard battle considering Labor have the ground to make up.
You are all getting too fixated on the 2pp.
The consistent, unchanging result across all the polls is a Labor primary circa 47%, with outliers only being 1 or 2 points above or below. We can infer that the ALP has locked in at least 44% of the primary vote, which is pretty impressive.
Howard will go early. Anymore and the voters will get impatient. He should go straight after APEC just to get it over and done with, rather than waiting till November. That way, if he gets back in, time for the HOR to sit again before Christmas and if Rudd wins, give him time to organise a new cabinet and to let them settle in. (He won’t do what Whitlam did in ’72, he’ll be more of a moderate reformer than a revolutionary.)
We’ll ill be i guess im going to be the first to eat my words about the polls…i was wrong to call any particular poll biased…and isnt it funny the poll the Rudd Huggers hate gives him an astronomical lead and the poll the Howard Lovers hate gives Howard a brief glimpse of salvation…while this is a wonderful poll for the Coalition (still a landslide victory for Labor mind you)…Morgan has once again undervalued the National Party vote at 2.5% when they have polled 6% in 2004 now granted alot of people polled might say Liberal when they only have a Nat to vote for but 2.5% seems rather low indeed…
But as noted already the next newspoll will be crucial if it is below 55-45 then there has been some movement in the polls…this could be a one off but Howard needs everything to go his way so a tightening of the polls is one thing he needs badly at the moment…
If the Liberal Party can score a primary vote in the 40s they’ve got a chance slim though it may be of winning…if its below the Coalition will struggle…the ALP can win seats with less primary vote than the Liberal or Nationals candidate because they receive 3/4 of Greens preferences so if the Coalition is going to have a chance in November/December they’ll need to claw back alot more support on primaries…
Still lets not go nuts about this poll it still shows Labor winning in a landslide of biblical proportions so i’d rather be in Labor’s position at the moment but nevertheless a 4% rise could be either a decisive shift in voter sentiment or a rogue poll take your pick…im hoping its the former…and im also interested in this poll because it was a face-to-face poll and most F2F polls arent really supportive of the Coalition…(nobody likes to admit they are a conservative lol)…
Scotty@48:
[Centrebet also currently has Maxine at $2.50 in Bennelong. I think that was $2.15 a few weeks ago.]
About a week ago, Scotty, Maxine was in to $2.10 on CBet. And now, as you point out Max is at $2.50
Max’s $2.10 “board odds” was squirm territory for El Rodente, especially if she remained there long enough for the punters to notice. Somebody has been backing Bennelong John with serious fat. Enough for Maxine to drift 36% in the betting on the southern hemisphere’s largest perimutuel election pool.
Nah, they wouldn’t would they? Just to make him look a little better?
Still, whoever poulticed The Rodent always has the option of “off-loading” on Maxine come election eve if circumstances warrant. This is pure speculation on my part, but one can’t entirely eliminate the possibily that “sources close to the PM” had a bit of a lash. For the good of The Party, naturally.
With Labor’s IR policy upgrade getting some form support from BHP, most papers and begrudging support from other areas; the report that showed poverty has increased to 10%; polls that show improvement in Labor’s economic credentials; the negative atmosphere surrounding horse flu developments and, Howard getting little oxygen on positive issues you would have to think votes could still be leaking away from the Govt.
There is so far only one reason I can see for the voter to move back to the govt, fear of change.
Unless Howard has some big rabbits to pull out of the hat I think waiting could cost him further votes.
Does anyone know if the WA Libs have finalised their Senate ticket yet? There’s nothing about it at their website, but that’s not very surprising.
While i have lambasted the media for Howard’s perilous position at the moment…there are other reasons…if Howard cannot stop people being bored with his leadership/government then he’ll lose…simple as that boredom will be the biggest killer of Howard and i think the main reason why he’s still so far behind…Rudd is fresh new bright people have warmed to him…Howard needs a revamp maybe ministerial before the election…something to instil some renewal in his team if he’s to attempt to stop the Australian public being bored with his Government and give him a shot at a 5th term…
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Bunnyeared-woman-strips-for-Rudd/2007/08/31/1188067342449.html
Bunny-eared woman strips for Rudd
Heheh how funny the Chasers will be worth watching just to see Rudd lol you wouldnt get someone doing that for Howard though so it could end up being another vote winner for Rudd lol
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/clear-me-says-lib-mp-over-police-raid/2007/08/30/1188067278078.html
Clear me, says Lib MP over police raid
Seems Gary Hardgrave want them to clear him before the election…i wonder why its taking the DPP so long its either a good thing or a very bad thing…
I wonder what the Exclusive Brethren’s position on gambling is.
Glen, the coalition is going to have to do better than 40%. Any primary lead the ALP has nationwide is only going to be more exacerbated in the 5 big metro areas around Australia. I would guess the primary split is even more horrendous than the 46-39 average in the polls.
If you factor in that WA is probably dampening the ALP vote in the national polls, and Vic is status quo, that’s a big worry for Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide seats for the libs.
Factor in Uncle Rupert’s conversion to Kevinism, which is especially reflected in the rags on the eastern seaboard. Big trouble.
I reckon some of these political commentators must live in a vaccum or believe that corrupt government doesn’t bother people.
They dont face the fact that maybe this government deserves to get booted out and that many of the people think so to. Some of these so called political commentators say the people are just getting bored with the govt and, refuse to acknowledge a littany of disgraceful government actions and actions for which they refuse to admit responsibility, or blame or accountability. Poeple don’t care about these? They don’t work against the govt?
Iraq ware Lies on WMD;
Foreign policy decided by BUsh and Cheney;
Hicks trashing of justice;
Refugees as political toys;
Heavey handed immigration deporting our own citizens;
Tamapa debacle orchestrated by the govt;
Children Overboard Lies by govt ministers;
AWB bribery sponsored by the govt and lies by govt ministers;
Racism and Xenophobia promotion;
Manildra;
Cash for visas
Climate Change – deliberate ignorance and delay 10 years;
Iraq – staying there to support Bush;
Haneef frame up;
Persecution of persons who disagree with govt ie Justice Kirby, Andrew Wilkie
Interest rate rises – because of Howard’s stupid pork barreling every 3 years
WorkChoices – handing the australian worker over to business bound hand and foot and gagged
Politicisation of the Public Service, Military, Security Services, Non-Govt funded agencies etc
And probably others I cant think of. The govt has shown itself to be simply corrupting democracy, honesty, decency and so forth.
Almost each one of these issues is enough to bring down a govt or lead to mass Minster dismissals (which never happened). People dont trust Howard for a reason. It is amazing that some of these political commentators refuse to refer to all these things when saying – the people are bored. The people might just be sick of a selfish PM and govt only interested in Big Industry and staying in power indefinately.
We only need to remeber the John Howard and this ministers of November 2006 before he came under Rudd pressure. They were totally arrogant, threatening, intimidating and dismissive of the Australian people, transparency etc. Given another 3 years?
It appears that dirty politics is once again on hand and while no party has clean hands the ALP have show with their latest indiscretion that they are not beyond dirt politics…
ALP defends ad attack on Ballarat Liberal candidate
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/31/2020711.htm
The Labor Party is defending a new television advertisement.
The election commercial shows the home of Samantha McIntosh, the Liberal candidate for Ballarat, in central Victoria, with a luxury car parked in the driveway.
The home is also the family business and is up for sale for more than $2 million.
The ad portrays Mrs McIntosh as wealthy and says she is out of touch with housing affordability issues.
The car in the ad does not belong to Mrs McIntosh, but the ALP’s campaign director for the electorate, Don Nardella, defends the use of it in the commercial.
“The Mercedes Benz was parked in the driveway when our camera crew were out there and it took a shot of the Mercedes Benz in the driveway,” he said.
“We’re not saying it’s her car at all. It was a shot of the house and the vehicle was parked in the driveway, we took a shot of it.”
Grubby
Tony Smith, the parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister and MP for Casey, says Catherine King’s attack on her federal election rival is grubby.
“What it signals is this. It is no secret in Canberra that the Labor Party are worried about the seat of Ballarat because Catherine King hasn’t done the work and because Sam McIntosh is a quality candidate with a great history in the Ballarat area, who is well known and is working extremely hard,” he said.
Now while no Party is immune from dirt politics is it clear the ALP are so worried about Ballarat which could fall to the Coalition at the election with a swing of less than 1 or 2 percent…that they have had to get dirt under their fingernails early in the ‘campaign’…
On a previous thread the possibility of Hughes falling was discussed. This afternoon at Portland the odds for the ALP have moved from $6.50 to $4.00. Someone is having some serious money on Hughes. It opened on Portland at $11.00 in July.
Kina (71),
Speaking of “Hicks trashing of justice” that is all the more reason to make sure the election is held before the end of the year. Howard has said he would do this (yesterday guaranteed a poll prior to years end). Hicks gag order is up sometime in December I don’t know the exact date. Does anyone else know? Also, why isn’t anyone making a bigger deal out of why it took so long in the first place? I don’t think it takes Blind Freddy to realize that if not for the fact that we are having an election this year that Hicks would still be over there and not in Adelaide ….. :(:( Julie
Glen, was the Mercedes NOT parked in Samantha McIntosh’s driveway?
If it was, then that is a factual photo? What’s wrong with presenting facts?
Is her house up for sale for more than $2 million or not?
If it is, then that is a correctly reported fact.
Glen, have you got problems with FACTS???
Its pretty sad, that politics in Australia has degenerated to such a stage, that dirt politics is so commonplace. We can only blame John Howard and his government for taking dirt politics to a new level. Although dirt politics will likely never go away, the sooner we vote out the main instigators (being those parties that use people like Textor), the better.
There is only one residence in Ballarat that is anywhere near $2 million (according to realestate.com)
Ballarat’s Grandest Residence
$2,285,000
This Grand Victorian residence is set on approx 1 acre and is arguably one of Ballarat’s finest Victorian homes.
The home is located in one of Ballarats finest tree lined streets meters from the lake, close to shops, cafe’s, restaurants, schools and hospitals. Positioned amongst magnificent established gardens this residence is approximately 70 squares of living and 20 squares of cellar space. Features include; a stunning formal lounge room, huge formal dining room, sunlit breakfast room, a study, a family room that was once a ballroom and includes a kitchen designed for the serious chef.
There is a large master bedroom with ensuite & numerous bedrooms & bathrooms throughout this impressive home. The property also includes 2 self contained units ideal for guests. The many original features of the home include ruby glass door surrounds, tiled fireplaces, ornate plaster ceilings & wrought iron balustrades that have been lovingly restored to enhance the elegance of this magnificent home. Opportunities to secure a residence such as this are rare.
Property Summary:
Category: House Bedrooms: 10 Bathrooms: 5
Hardly a place that a Merc would feel out of place.
Although I do like my SLK 🙂
Asanque lets just hope it doesnt degenerate into US politics of smear and scandal that’s all we can hope for…the problem is dirt politics is effective more often than not and politicians being politicians are willing to do what it takes to win despite morality…i dont think its fair to put the blame on Howard or Textor for that matter…no one party has a completely clean record on dirt politics…
Talking about Dirt Politics and politicised govt and non-govt funded organisations the Govt has been good at victimising those that present a dissenting voice, from threats against the local Red Cross, neutering CSIRO scientists, an attack on Justice Kirby in Parliament on falisfied documentation AND of course Ian Thorpe.
Ian Thorpe is part of the GetUp action web site [196,000 members now] which is really a big pain for the Govt. Not surprising then that there were allegations of drug cheating against him in order to ruin his reputation aka Kirby & Wilkie:
http://www.getup.org.au/
Thorpe cleared of doping violations:
ASADA launched an investigation in April after Thorpe returned a sample with elevated hormone levels in May last year. The former athlete has since been subjected to no-notice drug tests.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/31/2020637.htm
Glen
I find your stuff funny but please attempt some form of punctuation. The full point is a good place to start.
It looks like he ALP are finally coming out of their shell and going on the attack. The Libs have been doing the real dirty stuff for years and years on Labor and Green candidates. Labor has been too shy and too scared for too long to dish out the dirt. What is needed is a bit of assertiveness and a bit of mongrel to tell King Howard that he has no clothes on and his cohorts that they are on the nose.
I have a distaste for the Greens because, as Adam has said, they are a magnet for Marxists and Trotskyists like Lee Rhiannon and Kerry Nettle. It’s the NDP all over again.
At least the Democrats were a party of review from the centre rather than the far left like the Greens.
What centre or centre-right Democrats voter would want the balance of power over either a Liberal or Labor government held by the far left?
Glen: Thanks to Textor and the Howard government its all about smear and scandal and nothing about policies.
The Government’s entire line of argument against Rudd is all about scare tactics, from unions, to destruction of the economy, to all ALP governments, to an increase in GST. Throw in a scandal or two such as Scores, and you have Howard’s entire campaign strategy.
However, I haven’t seen Rudd use too many issues of scandal and smear. Please correct me if I am wrong.
This entire election campaign so far has been an amazing lack of planning for the future from both sides. For me, Rudd has been far more credible in at least outlining some initiatives for the future. Howard has done little but pork barrel.
Please…Howard no clothes on. Dirt campaigns turn into an arms race of how low you can go. I prefer to leave that to the rodents of the world.
Politics is a dirty game. It’s quite disgusting actually. This will be a very dirty campaign, that’s already obvious. There will be untold lies told by both majors. One wonders what the fallout will be at the end.
You’ll notice in other campaigns how the polls are all over the place during the campaign proper. I just hope the people can see through all the lies and dirt. I for one will not be giving my first vote to either major party.
This poll may be a rogue or it may be exactly right. Next Newspoll and Nielsen will give a better indication. In any case it’s very likely the gap will close more than this. It would be very unlikely that the final result would be
54.5% to 45.5%, most likely a couple of points closer.
If the other polls show this result, then John Howard will indeed tough it out to the end. Could well be only three or four seats in it.
Richard.
The minor parties are not clean skins, they are just as capable of dirt campaigns.
I have worked alongside Lee Rhiannon and she is the conscience of the House. She says things others fear to say. She certainly riles the so-called Hard Left of the Labor Party who are actually right wingers.
Imagine, Michael Costa was a Trotskyite once! You could hardly find someone further right or more anti-green now.
Lee Rhiannon actually does stand up for the down-trodden and really does care unlike so many of the Labor members who constantly put her down.
I wish there were many more of her calibre in both the state parliament and the federal parliament.
Kina @ 79
” … Thorpe is part of the GetUp action web site …”
Really!? Is this public knowledge or have I been under a rock? So, he’s not a fish, he’s human …
This implies Howard believes the bank will — ie. is unafraid to — increase rates a few days before an election (if it was hypothetically held 10th November). Interesting.
I think a rate rise days before an election will decide its outcome (in favour of Rudd). Either I’m wrong or Phil’s friend is wrong.
I think we should applaud the new GLEN for his rational comments of late. sure most of us disagree with his political leanings but at least he is now adding to the debate and not just rambling party political lines.SO good on you GLEN speak up for your beliefs I dont agree with them but you have every right to express them.may the best team {labour} win.
I take all this back if you start rambling again.
‘Privatise Costa’ Hardly a parliamentary statement. 🙂
Imagine, Michael Costa was a Trotskyite once! You could hardly find someone further right or more anti-green now.
A suprisingly common transformation. Piers Ackerman and PP McGuiness were once hard left Marxists/Trotskyites (I can never remember which). The ‘spiked’ gang in the UK (a particularly nasty bunch). Rupert Murdoch had a bust of Marx in his room when at Oxford Uni. And so on.
I suspect we’re all reading too much into this poll. After all Galaxy, showing a big swing TO Labor, was not even a week ago. This poll is still within the MOE of just about every other poll, and I would want to see it repeated for a couple of weeks before I would think there would be anything resembling a trend. A poll on its own is largely meaningless.
The other mistake we’re all making is focussing on the 2PP – it’s the primaries that set the base for a win, and here Labor is still some 5-9 points clear (as it has been all year). In previous elections commentators would talk about the low ALP primary vote in polling, and talk about how they needed to get it to, say, 42%. This poll says Labor has over 46% of primary votes, and it’s very much at the lower end of the spectrum. Polling companies really indulge in informed guesswork when allocating preferences, so the 2PP in opinion polls is at best tenuous.
Finally, we all need to remember that any swing that does happen won’t be uniform. There might be big swings in safe seats, and not not in the marginals, or vice versa, and some States look like they will swing more than others. All of this skews the headline figure.
One more thing – there’s still a ways to go till polling day (at least 6 weeks and possibly up to 3 and half months), and anything could happen in that time to change (or harden) the dynamic. It certainly appears that Labor is on course for an historic and comprehensive victory, but I won’t be putting the champagne on ice just yet.
Richard – the same Lee Rhiannon whose parents were important cadres of the Communist Party of Australia – her mother in particular is a notorious Stalinist and Soviet apologist.
Us ex-Comms make the best right-wingers 🙂
As far as I’m concerned Hicks can rot in jail unti he recants his Islamo-fascist anti-Semite views, and Sheikh Hilali can join him. Is that right-wing enough for you Glen?
Skunkrat sez…
[I wonder what the Exclusive Brethren’s position on gambling is.]
Not sure, Skunkrat. Was thinking more along the lines of a wager written with Textor-Colour.
Hugo (93),
Re. ” One more thing – there’s still a ways to go till polling day (at least 6 weeks and possibly up to 3 and half months), and anything could happen in that time to change (or harden) the dynamic. It certainly appears that Labor is on course for an historic and comprehensive victory, but I won’t be putting the champagne on ice just yet. ”
While that well may be true, it hasn’t stopped me from planning my shopping list for Dan Murphy’s 😉 ……. Julie
With views like that Adam surely you should be applying to his branch for membership? Or was that a joke. It is late on Friday my humor and irony detectors in text are down for maintenance …
It’s interesting that political debate, here and elsewhere, is so polarised between the far Left and the Liberal Party. The views that never get articulated, and never get any respect, are the those of the right wing of the Labor Party, even though they are the closest to the majority of public opinion. Never mind, we don’t care – we’ll take the power and leave the ideological cat-fighting to the extremes. 🙂
Lefty E
I went and looked at the accounts for Customs, they only go back to 99 (showing previous year 98)
In 1998
227 million on employees
192 million on suppliers
I suspect some services have since been contracted out but….
In 2006
396 million on employees
472 million on suppliers
I make the “cutback” as an increase of about 100%