EMRS: 61-39 in Tasmania

Tasmanian market research company EMRS has today published one of its surveys of 1000 voters covering about 200 in each of the state’s five electorates, showing Labor on course for a clean sweep. This would mark a return to the state of play from 1998 to 2004, when Bass and Braddon fell to the Liberals. Coalition supporters wishing to find solace in the possibility of a dud sample should observe that the same outfit has produced a poll of state voting intention, conducted at the same time and presumably from the same sample, with disastrous results for Labor. Paul Lennon’s disapproval rating is at a terminal 66 per cent, with 64 per cent expressing disapproval for his government’s contentious fast-tracking of the Tamar Valley pulp mill. Those of a suspicious mindset will no doubt point to the fact that the poll was commissioned by Tasmanians Against the Pulp Mill.

It’s always advisable to read these polls in totality rather than as five separate electorate-level results; nonetheless, I do not begrudge EMRS its attempt to read significance into its figures for Braddon, site of the federal government’s Mersey Hospital intervention, where Labor’s two-party lead has narrowed to 54-46 from 64-36 at the previous poll in June. After weeding out the undecided and non-voters (11 per cent of the total), seat-by-seat results are as follows:

ALP LIB ALP LIB GRN
Total 61 39 51 36 11
Bass (Liberal 2.6%) 59 41 52 36 11
Braddon (Liberal 1.1%) 54 46 47 44 9
Denison (ALP 13.3%) 64 36 53 32 14
Franklin (ALP 7.6%) 61 39 52 37 11
Lyons (ALP 3.7%) 61 39 52 36 13

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

103 comments on “EMRS: 61-39 in Tasmania”

  1. From memory the Greens in Cunningham benefited from 1) a left-wing trade union independent candidate who gave them preferences; 2) a known Liberal who ran as an independent, he won less support than an endorsed Liberal would have done so and thus finished behind the Green but did pick up a fair number of Liberal votes and deliver them to the Green by his preferences. Will their be a quasi-Liberal candidate in Albert Park? For most Liberal voters the perception of the Greens as a radical party would swamp any desire to embarrass Labor, unless they are just following a htv.

  2. William. Thanks and I understand some of your concerns I most certainly do not believe you are part of a white wash of teh bade Electoral Practices of the VEC or AEC. But these issues should be addressed in flux of time. They are very much about the way elections will be conducted in the not to near future as and when we move towards electronic voting.

    One way of reducing band with is to break the comments up into pages so that users do not have to down load every comment each time want to view updates.

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