Today’s episode of Seat of the Week brings us to the second-most marginal electorate in the country, the southern Adelaide seat of Kingston. Kingston was created when parliament when enlarged in 1949, and has consistently covered the outer coastal reaches of the metropolitan area. This meant Glenelg and Brighton in the early days, the southernmost suburb of Hallett Cove being the only area still in the electorate today. Glenelg was hived off to since-abolished Hawker in 1984, and Brighton went to Boothby in 1993. It now extends from Hallett Cove and industrial Lonsdale south to the outermost beachside suburbs of Moana and Port Willunga, and to the McLaren Vale wine-growing district further inland. Most of the population is in the north of the electorate, around Noarlunga, Reynella and Morphett Vale. As my maps at Crikey demonstrate, this area is divided between a Liberal-leaning north-east and a Labor-leaning south-west. Labor is also strong in the thin strip of coastal suburbs further south, which also record strong support for the Greens, while the McLaren Vale area provides the Liberals with their two strongest booths.
As befits a seat that has moved with the mortgage belt, Kingston has been extremely sensitive to the tides of electoral fortune. Despite having a notional Labor margin of 6.8 per cent upon its creation, it was swept up with the landslide that put the Menzies government in power in 1949. Pat Galvin gained the seat for Labor in 1951, and was re-elected with varying margins until 1966. It was then caught up in the statewide convulsions of 1966 and 1969, which produced double-digit swings first to Liberal and then to Labor in both Kingston and South Australia as a whole. The Liberals thus held the seat for one term before it returned emphatically to Labor. Kingston subsequently changed hands with the next three changes of government, being held by Grant Chapman during the Fraser years (he returned as a Senator in 1987) and Gordon Bilney thereafter. A former Democrats leader, the late Janine Haines, made an audacious bid for the seat in 1990 but failed to beat the Liberal candidate into second place, recording 26.4 per cent to the Liberals’ 33.0 per cent and Labor’s 37.1 per cent. Bilney was edged out in 1996 by a relatively mild 3.4 per cent swing to Liberal candidate Susan Jeanes, who had too little fat on her margin to withstand the GST backlash of 1998. Labor’s David Cox recovered the seat for Labor with a 2.5 per cent swing, prevailing by 763 votes.
A Labor-friendly redistribution followed by a small swing increased the margin from 0.5 per cent to 2.4 per cent in 2001, but the next redistribution went the other way. With South Australia’s representation cut from 12 seats to 11 at the 2004 election, Kingston was made to absorb the McLaren Vale area, giving the Liberals what proved to be a decisive 1.1 per cent boost. Requiring a further 1.4 per cent swing to topple Cox, the Liberals picked up roughly 2 per cent in the northern part of the electorate. However, this was very nearly balanced out by a sharp swing to Labor in wealthy McLaren Vale, consistent with the much-touted “doctors’ wives” effect. Another notable feature of the vote was a strong 5.6 per cent for Family First, who outpolled the Greens and delivered the Liberals a better-than-usual preference flow. Cox held a narrow lead on election night, but this was whittled down and eventually overturned as pre-poll and postal votes gave the Liberals a 119-vote victory.
The incoming Liberal member was Kym Richardson (left), a police officer, former SANFL player and sports manager whose clients included AFL star Byron Pickett and test cricketer Jason Gillespie. The party had initially approached another football identity, Adelaide Crows player Nigel Smart, but he remained committed to playing out the 2004 AFL season (Smart went on to unsuccessfully contest the state seat of Norwood at last year’s state election). According to The Advertiser’s Tom Richardson (presumably no relation), Richardson’s backers included Susan Jeanes and two locally based state members, Bright MP Wayne Matthew (since retired) and Mawson MP Robert Brokenshire (since defeated). Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Amanda Rishworth (right), a psychologist and former organiser for the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Rishworth was Labor’s candidate for Fisher at the state election, and was preselected unopposed in Kingston as part of a factional arrangement. Contrary to my normal practice, I should also make mention of Greens candidate Bill Weller, Australian Manufacturing Workers Union activist and prolific commenter on this website.
At this stage of the game, the portents for Kym Richardson are not good. In his assessment of the electorate’s demographics, Adam Carr notes a high proportion of manufacturing workers, a relatively low average income and a high proportion of dwellings being purchased, making it prime territory for a backlash over WorkChoices and interest rates. Two electorate-level polls conducted by The Advertiser bear this out: Labor recorded leads of 56-44 in January, before Kevin Rudd had established the national polling ascendancy he has enjoyed since March, and 57-43 late last month.
Richo versus Risho.
In 1998 and 2001, Kingston was the only bright spot for Labor in a state that fared poorly for Kim Beazley. Since reversed in 2004; but one of the more probable ALP gains in 2007.
Interesting tidbit you raise about two marginal seat state Liberal MPs contesting federal preselection in 2004. Either they were unhappy with their lot in opposition (or state politics); or they could see what was going to happen in 2006.
I believe you have misread, David – the two MPs were Richardson’s backers. Rather less exciting, I’m afraid.
Oops. I really didn’t read that properly, did I? Those MHAs were backers, not opponents. Agh.
On more trivial matters, the pedant in me wishes to point out (as a way to divert attention away from my goof) that you can’t have both candidates pictured on the left. (Not that anyone would have trouble telling the two apart.)
You didn’t see nothin’, David.
This seat’s boundaries have changed so much in the last twenty years that the continuity implied here is probably not that meaningful. The marginal nature of it before was due to the straddle across the fairly homogenous southern Adelaide suburbs. Now it is much more polarised between working class suburbs around Hallett Cove and semi-rural areas. It is probably not really that meaningful either to look it as a mortgage play (that sounds like a more Sydney view of the world). It will be the loyalty of the traditional Liberal base in the McLaren Vale that will decide this seat, in my view.
William: I note you don’t record Australian Democrats leader Janine Haines shot at the seat in 1990 (when she polled 26%, but with the Libs on 33% and Bilney on 36%) which was in many respects a significant challenge to the seat – it certainly ensured that Bilney would retain the seat at the time and helped the Dems to 16% of the Senate vote in SA (12.6% nationally).
I’m confused. I thought ‘Richo’ was a police officer before he was elected in 2004- or did he do both?
Busyness of life has prevented me from participating much on this site of late, but now my home seat has the glory of ‘Seat of the week’ I had to jump back in.
Given the tightness of the margin, Kym Richardson will obviously have a struggle on his hands to retain this seat, but a couple of things will work in his favour. Firstly, the ALP have chosen a decidely average candidate in Amanda Rishworth. She has been lauded as having increased the Labor vote dramatatically in Fisher in the 2006 state election, but the Fisher contest was complicated by Bob Such winning the seat as a former Liberal turned independent. For all intents and purposes Rishworth is a pleasant gal, but she’s no star candidate and should never have been given a seat like this (but that’s typical Labor isn’t it).
Secondly, Kym Richardson is a solid performer who has in a survey of all marginal seats in Australia was rated the most recogniseable candidate by constitutents. He’s got a good local profile and he’s everywhere. There’s no doubt he’s worked hard over the past 3 years.
These facts may hold back the Labor swing, but in saying that they don’t need much of a swing to capture the seat.
Other factors: the seat is home to EDGE Church, the second biggest church in the state and part of the AoG (eg Hillsongs) denomination. With over 5,000 regular churchgoers and other smaller ‘plant’ churches popping up throughout the seat, the Family First vote is likely to be among the highest in Australia.
Maslin Beach, a nudist ‘colony’ in the south of the seat is a bastion for the Greens (says a lot!).
The seat has an absolutely stunning coastline and I reckon it’s among the most beautiful in Australia. Definitely worth a visit if you’re ever passing through South Aussie (that’s my plug for the state!)
Definitely the true heart of the country. Dave S is also right on the swing possibly being mixed. There are so many factors crossing over each other in this heterogenous seat, it may very well not follow the country or even the rest of the state which is looking to be ready for a strong pro-Labor swing.
With that wonderful coastline, it should be an ideal site for a nuclear power station! That aside, Labor will be helped by the fact that instead of having Liberal members in the state seats of Mawson and Bright working against Amanda Rishworth there will be the very active Labor MPs Leon Bignell and Chloe Fox working for her.
It is my home seat too and I couldn’t let this moment pass me by without pointing out that Kym Richardson was actually a local police officer before entering politics, he owned and operated his sports management business on the side.
By the way Dave S, it is also worth noting that Amanda Rishworth never lived anywhere near the South (Port Adelaide I think) before she was pre-selected – given how proud we are down South I think it will be a big factor that the implication from the Labor Party was that noone down our way was good enough… it certainly weighs on my mind!
1966 Liberal winner was only the second female Liberal MP elected.
#7 DaveS
“Maslin Beach, a nudist ‘colony’ in the south of the seat is a bastion for the Greens (says a lot!). ”
That’s funny, I know many many of the nudists that use Maslins [though not one myself] and NONE, not a single one, is a Green.
You don’t want to be mislead by the scurrilous campaign of the local rag!
This article by Paul Kelly really put things in perspective, and throws into sharp relief the choices and issues in this election:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/paulkelly/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rudd_clueless_on_economy/P50/
So says Cerdic Conan.
Does Bill Weller enjoy Maslin Beach?
Is she a Union hack?
Kay Brownbill was the first woman elected to the House of Representatives without having been preceded by her late husband (like Enid Lyons and Doris Blackburn). And that was only 41 years ago. Miss Brownbill was what they called then a maiden lady, while Joan Child (elected 1974) was a respectable widow. It was not thought proper that a woman with a living husband be elected until 1980 (Ros Kelly and Elaine Darling).
No, no, Glen, it’s a union THUG – get your lines right. The SDA is well-known for bashing people up.
So, your point Adam would be that Enid Lyons and Doris Blackburn don’t really count as elected female MPs because they were widows? There were somehow less female? They were somehow not of the same value as women/people/MPs as Ros Kelly and Elaine Darling? They don’t really count? Would this be because they weren’t Labor MPs, and that you only consider Labor MPs to be real MPs?
Does anyone think the ‘Kate Ellis’ effect will work for Amanda Rishworth? (i.e. style above substance)
The evidence would suggest that Kingston will be won fairly comfortably by Labor. A recent Advertiser poll had Labor ahead 56-44 in Kingston. Internal Labor polling in SA certainly reflects this as well, based on what our local MP was saying in the sub-branch meeting last night.
Adam, you could hardly call Joe de Bruyn a thug capable of bashing people up? Maybe he’s hit the gym recently…
Also, large parts of the Kingston swung like crazy to the ALP in the state election, particularly areas around hallett cove where both booths swung by 17% (see William’s SA election summary on the seat of Bright).
I grew up in this part of the world – long enough to know when there were decent fish in the Onkaparinga.
Matthew, there is a danger in drawing too many conclusions from the state election. Bright’s candidate Chloe Fox was a good candidate, she was from a very prominent LOCAL family (daughter of childrens author Mem Fox), and very well known locally.
Contrast this with the current federal labor candidate for Kingston Amanda Rishworth, who has no prominent family ties (like Chloe Fox), and has until just recently resided well outside of the Kingston electorate. Amanda Rishworth has no connection to Kingston apart from her name being in close proximity to the word “Kingston” on the ballot paper.
I think Matthew has been listening to far too much Leon Bignall dribble (if that is the local MP he is talking about I personally wouldn’t put much stock in it) – another Labor Party candidate who didn’t know the South extended beyond South Terrace (till pre-selection that is) dropped straight from Conlon’s office into the South… and look how well that turned out!
Its true that Chloe Fox was a good candidate compared to the dull Angus Redford. However, Kingston has a large number of people employed in manufacturing industries and is one of the prime candidates for an anti-workchoices swing. It is also relatively mortgage belt, and lets face it, the libs aren’t going to win extra votes on interest rates this time, they are only going to lose them. I would predict a moderately comfortable margin of 5-7% for Rishworth after the election.
Very good call regarding Janine Haines, Stewart. I did remember to add that, then forgot about it again.
Piping Shrike, the McLaren Vale area accounts for a relatively small number of voters, as I believe my Crikey map demonstrates. The electorate is overwhelmingly outer suburban, unless someone better familiar with Adelaide wants to contradict me on that point.
All I will say is it was a Rann cabinet member Spazz 🙂
Post now amended to note Janine Haines’ bid for election and Kym Richardson’s former career as a policeman.
I agree with Matthew Flinders. Reading anything into the state election results in the southern suburbs is a waste of time.
The circumstances are very different from the 2006 state campaign, although after reading some of the comments here, you wouldn’t know it.
No, I don’t think that was Adam’s point. I think Adam was making a different point, a point about society’s changing attitudes to women’s roles. Possibly his point was not well taken (consider, for example, that Edith Cowan had a living husband when she was elected to the Legislative Assembly of Western Australia as far back as 1921), but I don’t think it was a partisan one.
I don’t like Paul Kelly – but he makes one point “…in the absence of an accord”
I think this is the key difference. Hawke negotiated with the ACTU to keep wages down in exchange for a package of benefits for workers. What has Rudd negotiated with the unions for – to get elected?
If he had something of that mind to offer, then his promise to cut AWAs would have been extracted in exchange for something the future ALP govt needed from the unions. But he has not gained anything from the unions for the promise, except campaign funding and votes.
Hawke v Rudd – Hawke extracted something for the NATION from the unions, Rudd extracts something for the ALP alone.
I’ll stick my neck out here and predict Labor will easily gain this seat; it will be one of at least 5 SA seats to fall to Labor judging by recent SA polling.
J-D is right – Doris and Enid are comparable to Lurleen Wallace – they only got where they did on the backs of their husbands.
This is being picky, but I think you will find Hindmarsh is slightly more marginal tham Kingston.
William, apologies but I was being sloppy on my definition of McLaren Vale and was talking of the area stretching up into the Onkaparinga Hills and even down to the costal towns of Port Willunga and Aldinga, which still have their old semi-rural element, often focussed on the industries around the McLaren Vale, despite the recent suburban influx. The issue here is that the swing in these areas may be for different reasons from that in the more suburban areas in the northern half. For example on Workchoices (although I think over-rated on importance) may have a different impact for the wine producers and employees in these areas than in Lonsdale. All of this was very different up to this decade when Kingston was almost wholly suburban and followed more typical movements in Adelaide.
I think the 56/44 quoted above for Kingston, i.e. a smaller swing than the state as a whole, sounds about right.
You’re right, Kev – 108 votes compared to 119.
Thanks J-D. Besides which Doris Blackburn WAS a Labor MP, albeit an independent one. She was a great champion of what was then a very poor area of Melbourne and was much loved locally, despite her own upper-class background. She was only defeated in 1949 because of boundary changes.
Adam,
Correct me if I am wrong but the North West of Melbourne has a tradition of independent Labor members, does it not – Maurice Blackburn, Doris Blackburn, Charlie Mutton, Jack Mutton, Phil Cleary? Peter Randles came close for the forerunner of the DLP in 1955 too, I think, in the same general area. Any thoughts on why the area is like this?
Dave S Says: Maslin Beach, a nudist ‘colony’ in the south of the seat is a bastion for the Greens (says a lot!).
Obvious Dave you do not know the electorate very well. The Greens have good support in Maslins beach as well as Willunga, Sellicks, Aldinga and to a lesser extent Mclaren vale, Seaford and port noarlunga.
Adam Says:
August 15th, 2007 at 11:00 am
No, no, Glen, it’s a union THUG – get your lines right. The SDA is well-known for bashing people up.
you got to be joking
Thank you William on including me in your Kingston profile. Its much appreciated. And thanks again to Adam for doing the same!
Sacha Says:
August 15th, 2007 at 10:55 am
Does Bill Weller enjoy Maslin Beach?
The beach is beautiful as the whole coast is. A nuclear plant will fit in nicely.
And no Sacha i dont do the nude bathing thing but admire the people that have the guts to do it ( ive got the guts thats why i dont lol )
#
10
Phil Robins Says:
August 15th, 2007 at 9:44 am
With that wonderful coastline, it should be an ideal site for a nuclear power station! That aside, Labor will be helped by the fact that instead of having Liberal members in the state seats of Mawson and Bright working against Amanda Rishworth there will be the very active Labor MPs Leon Bignell and Chloe Fox working for her.
Dont forget Gay Thompson in Reynell. As for Miss Fox she is working for Rishworth some would say not in a very nice way!
Spazz Says:
August 15th, 2007 at 9:45 am
By the way Dave S, it is also worth noting that Amanda Rishworth never lived anywhere near the South (Port Adelaide I think) before she was pre-selected – given how proud we are down South I think it will be a big factor that the implication from the Labor Party was that noone down our way was good enough… it certainly weighs on my mind!
Thats what i thought to but as Adam pointed out in other threads it seems that its not a problem anymore. But I live in the seat so ill take all those votes from people who want a Kingston living candidate. Did Richardson live in Kingston when he was elected ?
Adam, Strop et al dont get me started on the SDA, FF, Candidates living in electorates etc again. I thought we had passed that! LOL
Nice blog site The Piping Shrike
As I’ve said before I don’t think city voters give a toss where their local candidates live, or even who they are. Most voters in Kingston will be voting for or against Howard, and Richardson and Rishworth will just be names on the ballot paper.
Chris, the Muttons were the heirs of the Maurice and Doris Blackburn independent Labor organisation in Coburg, which they in turn inherited from Frank Anstey, although they weren’t nearly as left-wing as Anstey or the Blackburns. (Maurice was expelled by the predecessors of the Groupers for being a commo fellow-traveller as you will no doubt recall). I don’t think Cleary’s win had anything to do with that tradition, although I lack local knowledge of that area. It was as I recall a standard by-election swing, aggravated by resentment at Hawke’s neglect of the seat, a very bad Labor candidate – the poor man could hardly utter a sentence – and Cleary’s high local profile (in by-elections of course candidate factors do matter).
Adam, Political junkies like me don’t particularly care where the local candidate lives, but certainly care who they are. We’ve got Bill Shorten, plus he lives in area. Oh, frabjous day! His media performance over that terrible time of the Beaconsfield mine disaster was most impressive. The camera likes him; he communicates integrity & intelligence very effectively ; he’s going to be a ripper. Does anyone know why “the nice lass” has got the gong for this seat? Being a psychologist can mean many things (believe me, I know), anything from the most basic degree ,which, depending on the undergraduate curriculum, means they can speak to another person, to extremely sophisticated diagnostic, analytical skills, including stats., and treatment modalities. I suppose doing your time with the SDA has got to count for something.