Pieces and bits: episode two

• It now emerges that respondents to the weekend’s Galaxy poll of voting intention in Bennelong were also asked if their vote would be influenced by the prospect of the Prime Minister departing mid-term should he retain the seat. This is highly significant in light of Malcolm Mackerras‘s conviction that voters will tip him out partly to avoid a “quick, unnecessary and costly by-election”. The poll found 84 per cent of respondents said they would not be influenced by such concerns, which can be read one of two ways: voters are overwhelmingly unconcerned, or a small but decisive minority does in fact consider it a vote-switcher. The SBS Insight program, which commissioned the poll in conjunction with the Daily Telegraph, will tonight be devoted to a forum discussion from a hand-picked sample of Bennelong voters, to screen at 7.30pm.

Simon Jackman offers a very illuminating pendulum in which the seats from each state are listed in a different column. The lower part of the table marks Labor’s strongest historical result in each state post-1949. Interesting to relate that if Labor matches its best performance in every state, the Coalition will still win almost as many seats as Labor has at present.

• Inform your speculation on the Senate election with this handy results calculator, brought to you by occasional Poll Bludger commenter Dembo. It is set for the 2004 preference tickets at present, but I am advised that these will soon be made adjustable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

171 comments on “Pieces and bits: episode two”

Comments Page 4 of 4
1 3 4
  1. ruawake Says:
    August 15th, 2007 at 7:13 pm

    [I don’t think Ms Hanson has any chance of wining a senate seat, she may make Ron Boswell a little uncomfortable.]

    Ahh, Pauline will split the conservative redneck vote in the Senate. According to someone on Ch 10 News (whose name I didn’t catch) said, “Appearing on Dancing With The Stars doesn’t help her credibility”.

  2. If I have a high profile for saying outrageous things and then decide to use the publicity to run in the Senate and not spend very much on campaigning or advertisements, how much money will I make per vote I get? Can I make a profit out of it?

  3. God love her. La Hanson’s new party will be abbreviated to ‘Pauline’ on the ballot paper. Don’t Cry for Me, Marge and Tina!

    ‘United Australia’ indeed – over the ego of one thrice failed candidate.

  4. Flick. $2.10 per vote. And yes.

    Say you were a canny small businesswoman from Qld. There’ll be at least 2.6m of us bananas on the roll come election day. Say 96% turnout and 95% vote formally. If you clear 4% you’d make a tidy $210 000, and the AEC will even kindly give you your deposit back.

  5. or more likely to PUAP 🙂

    I think Pauline is the new Alf Bussel – A WA Bloke who stood in EVERY State and Federal Election, but who never won.

  6. I hope the ABC have “Bolters” and “Piers” on Insiders Sunday.

    Michael Brissinden would love to have a guest spot too I imagine.

    They would miss out on the usual “gender imbalance” of course, but it could be good sport.

  7. Kina Says:
    August 15th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
    Is it too late for Al Gore to nominate?

    Unfortunately Al is ineligible because he is not an Australian Citizen, despite publib perception that Australia is the 51st State.

  8. What percent of primaries do you need to poll before the $2.10 per vote kicks in though. I thought if you polled less than about 2% you received nothing for your troubles AND forfeited your deposit?

  9. publib Frank? – you mean boozy rightwingers? Is Glen a publibber? How long before the Macquarie confirms this as part of the great Aussie lexicon?

  10. The truth is out there. Bulletin chief defends journalists.

    Editor-in-Chief John Lehmann explains why Paul Daley was right to reveal the Treasurer’s leadership plot.
    Welcome to the Machiavellian world of politics – and political reporting.

    It turns out that the story is not new at all.

    {Just over a year ago, The Bulletin’s Paul Daley, one of Australia’s leading political reporters, gave his readers an inside account of the leadership tensions between John Howard and Peter Costello. Daley’s feature was published after Sydney’s The Sunday Telegraph reported there was an agreement in December 1994 between the pair in which Howard said he’d retire within two terms if he became PM.

    In his 2006 cover story, Daley reported that sources in the Costello camp were maintaining that in mid-2005, the Treasurer had resolved to challenge the PM and move to the backbench if he failed to win the top job.}

    {Costello did not move to dispute the account and maintained a good relationship with The Bulletin, agreeing, for example, to an exclusive Lunch interview with Ellen Fanning just last month.}

    The article is worth reading and gives some history leading up to the latest story. Why the MSM have not picked up on this I ‘m not sure, but could have something to do with protecting Howard in one camp and protecting Costello in another.

  11. [publib Frank? – you mean boozy rightwingers? Is Glen a publibber?]

    I meant to say Public , but Yeah, Publib is a good term , there is a poster on another Blog called Steve At The Pub who posts similer statements like Stephen Kay & Glen.

    Lefty E knows which Blog I’m referring to 🙂

  12. It will be interesting to hear Howard’s response to P. Hanson’s “return”.

    After all, – oops, almost bunged in a slogan there! – he rode on her bigotry, etc.

  13. Loved this one from “Blogrocacy Blog”.

    {Costello has finally proven himself worthy of the Liberal Party leadership. This story shows he’s completed his apprenticeship under the great liar and is ready to go on to bigger and better things.

    How do we know he’s lying – easy – Abbott says he’s telling the truth.}

  14. Pauline Hanson should be ashamed for tarnishing the name of the good old UAP the United Australia Party that was the conservative party of the 1930s and early 1940s.

    The AEC should have rejected her preferred name for the party its a joke and the AEC should be ashamed of themselves…Joe Lyons would turn in his grave if he knew what his party’s name was turned into…

    Costello was suppose to be on the 7:30 report…guess he’s answered enough questions on the affair in Question Time today…

  15. Swordfish at #142 questioned the inflationary effect of a tax cut given to the “wealthy” who don’t spend, as against the “poor” who do.

    All tax cuts are inflationary in that they provide cash for spending either directly, as per the “poor” above or because the cash is invested by the “rich”and thus provides indirect spending by borrowers. To be non inflationary, a tax cut would have to be stuffed under the mattress.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 4
1 3 4