Steady as she goes

Roy Morgan has released results from a face-to-face survey of 1723 respondents conducted over the past two weekends, which has Labor’s primary vote down from 51 per cent to 48 per cent from the previous such poll a fortnight ago (which had only 909 respondents) and the Coalition’s down from 38 per cent to 37 per cent. Labor’s two-party lead has increased from 58-42 to 58.5-41.5 based on how respondents said they would vote; on the basis of how preferences went in 2004, it has narrowed from 58-42 to 57.5-42.5. The face-to-face results are distinct from the two smaller-sample telephone surveys conducted by Morgan in the interim, both of which had Labor leading 55-45.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

154 comments on “Steady as she goes”

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  3. Hugh Mahon, member for Coolgardie 1901 -1920, spent 2 months in Kilmainham for land agitation. He is the only member of the HoR to be expelled – for calling George V a “bloody and accursed despot”. The resultant bye-election is, I think, the only bye-election in which a government has won an opposition seat.
    When tom Uren was arrested for marching in Brisbane he said he had only ever previously been imprisoned by the Japanese.

  4. Leomonade Ley was associated with a number of mysterious deaths. Fred McDonald, his ALP opponent in Barton in 1925, claimed that Ley had offered him a bribe to withdraw from the Ballot. He subsequently disappeared while attempting to have the election declared void. A buisness critic and NSW MP, Hyman Goldstein was found dead at the bottom of the Gap. However he was only convicted for the “chalkpit murder” in England. In which he organized thye murder of the suppossed lover of his mistress, John Mudie. He was sentenced to hang but the sentance was commuted because of unsanity to life in Broadmoor.

  6. So how many Premiers have ended up in the clink, then? That’s as much out of my own curiosity as anything else!

  14. Tasmanian Premier Robert Cosgrove was forced to resign as Premier in 1947 on bribery, corruption and conspiracy charges, in relation to the granting of tmber licences from memory. (Another state where the people change, the issues remain the same.) He was found not guilty, and new Premier Booker resigned office to allow Cosgrove to resume the premiership. While not found guilty, he’s the only Premier ever to be charged while in office.

  15. Antony, if it helps, I searched around for other people called Kusala or Sujatha in any context, and the names both seem to be women’s names

  16. Antony, completely unrelated question, but is that tiny box that you lived in when we saw you on the Chaser your real home? That’s terrible. We should increase ABC funding just to give you a nicer office.

  17. I’m not aware of any Premier of Tasmania who went to jail, though doubtless most of them should have done.

    James Munro, Premier of Victoria, went bankrupt in 1893 with debts of 600,000 pounds, a huge amount at that time. He was never charged, but he was attacked in the street by a creditor and beaten unconscious.

  18. Sir Charles Gavan Duffy, premier of Victoria in 1871 was imprisoned while being tried for Felony/Treason as part of the Young Ireland movement. He was tried 5 times and the jury failed to reach a conclusion at each trial. After the fifth trial it was suggested he might like some time in the colonies. He was the progenitor of a large number of prominent Australians.

    His cell mate was James Lalor, brother of Peter for whom an arrest warrant for Treason was issued but never enforced after the Eureka Stockade. Peter became speaker and Postmaster- General in Victoria.

  20. Howard is much too clever for that. A few clots like Hardgrave and Laming will be left to carry the can.

    INCIDENTALLY, people who like to boast about the impressive credentials of Liberal MPs compared with Labor’s array of union hacks might like to note that Laming has one of the most brilliant CVs of any current MP (viz http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/biography.asp?id=E0H), yet he is obviously a complete political dunderhead. At least most union hacks have had some practice keeping out of this kind of trouble. Academic brilliance does NOT necessarily equal political talent.

  21. I think that I can honestly say that over many decades many Queensland politicians have “never had a problem” with corrupt activities.

    Don’t know about the Federal Court but Lionel Murphy and Garfield Barwick also went to the High Court. I think H V Evatt made the same journey, or was it in reverse?

  22. Evatt went fron the NSW Parliament to the High Court to Federal parliament and then to the NSW Suprene Court

  23. The WA Liberals have cancelled their upcoming State Conference – nothing to do with avoiding a certain blood bath over the appalling leadership of convicted offender Liberal opposition leader Paul Omodei of course- apparently all to do with ensuring they concentrate their efforts with the re-election of Johnny Rotten.

    Good luck

  25. He shot his son in the hand in a farming accident and was charged with not correctly dealing with firearms. Don’t know exact charge. Was found guilty but might be on appeal. Certainly never came close to going to gaol for it.

    If the Libs have cancelled their conference, probably has more to do with Federal election, and also the new electoral boundaries for WA, the drafts released Friday, which look certain to end the career of a few Liberal and National MPs.

    After consulting that well known journal of record, the Gloucester Advocate, I’ve worked out Kusala Fitzroy-Mendis was female. She and her son Stanley contested the NSW Gloucester by-election in 1985.

  29. Ha ha, in the reportJames J refers to, Senator Gary Humphries calls Getup, which is campaigning to “put the Coalition Last”, a ” front for the Labor Party”.

    And the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry under the stewardship of Peter Hendry is an independent body,who’s interests are completely unaligned with the Liberals?

  30. Now I’ve seen everything – the Australian quotes itself as an authority for it’s own article today “Coalition’s grip on Senate in jeopardy:Poll.”

    As much as I want to believe the story, I find I can’t trust the source!

  31. Bemused, the article i assume you are referring to is straight from the AAP feed. It wasn’t written by The Australian, nor does it claim to be, and it wont be in the print edition. The ‘breaking news’ section of the Australian site is automatically sourced from AAP news wire feed.

  32. Yes, it was in the “breaking news” section, was not specifically attributed that I could see, and is now gone.

    You learn something every day. Thanks James J.

  33. Any value in Labor going after JWH again on the ‘retirement’ issue in their media campaign ? Didnt seem to make much difference in 2001, 2004.

    People repulsed by the very real posssibility of Costello becoming PM without the need to seek electorate endorsement (the polls consistently indicating he is about as popular a (potential) PM as Keating) might be less willing to take a punt on JWH going the distance this time around.

    I can imagine Costello’s smug face on television claiming (ala Keating) “This is the sweetest victory of them all”. The Editorial in yesterdays Courier Mail (page 14) head lined ‘Howard can’t stay Coy on Retirement’ demanded an answer.

    I think Howard ‘can’ avoid answering the retirement question forever if he wants to, and probably will – I know I would.

    Stilll, there might be some mileage for Labor to run a ‘grab bite’ of Costello in one of his more smug moments and ask the simple question “Do you really want this man as your (unelected) Prime Minister ?” Maybe its a ‘non-issue’, but Costello as PM is an ugly image.

  34. James J Says:

    June 26th, 2007 at 1:14 am
    A galaxy senate poll today says
    Coalition 34, Labor 38, Greens 13, Democrats 1, Other 14.

    Thanks for the info James. Mind you though, I pay little heed to Galaxy polls. For mine Galaxy polls have the waft of ‘push polling’ about them and Galaxy polls, therefore, might as well come from the same planet Adam reckons the Young Liberals hail from, Uranus.

  35. Howard’s Aboriginal Policy has the smell of another Tampa – sending the army into aboriginal communities etc. If this whole thing is meant to be above party politics, why then hasn’t Howard included Rudd and Jenny Macklin on the taskforce to administer the crackdown on child abuse/alcohol in aboriginal communities?
    Call me cynical, but I wouldn’t trust anything the lying rodent says.

  36. When I was telephone polled by a Galaxy interviewer, there were no leading questions. There is no evidence that Galaxy engages in push polling and the arguments to the contrary have been far from persuasive. In this context it seems to be an expression that is used interchangeably with conservative bias. It does not add to the discussion on this thread.

  37. I hope you people remember that Galaxy turned out to be the most accurate pollster in 2004, coming to within a point of the final 2pp result in the House.

    On those Senate figures, the Coalition is likely to get three seats in every state plus one each in the ACT and NT, meaning they will retain a majority until 2011 or a Double Dissolution is called. And since Howard is going to win the election in the House of Reps, the latter is most unlikely.

  40. Reeling back to my Q re Premiers and jail, I remember – apart from Brian Burke and Ray “Rocky” O’Connor (can’t rmember how he got that nickname – there was another former WA Premier recalled while being Ambassador to the Holy See to face charges but I can’t remember which one. And of course Vince Gair was also Ambassador to the Holy See…

    And Galaxy?? Its a Senate poll so irrespective of who it’s from its questionable…but I haven’t noticed Galaxy to be any further wrong than say Morgan of late.

  41. James J: Where did you get your figures from ?

    A galaxy senate poll today says
    Coalition 34, Labor 38, Greens 13, Democrats 1, Other 14.

    I read the same article and the Democrats aren’t even mentioned ?

    If you have some inside knowledge of the numbers, please share them with us. A breakdown of the “Other 14” would be nice.

  43. The only question hanging over Galaxy is this. While all other polls have the coalition primary vote at around 39 – 40 percent and Labor’s at around 47 percent (taking an average), how come Galaxy had the coalitions primary vote at 43 percent and Labor’s at 44 percent? Logic tells you 3 probably have it somewhere near the actual situation and one doesn’t, not the other way around.
    As for Nostradamus, just repeating a belief based on heaven knows what (certainly not the polls and not the issues) doesn’t mean it is going to happen.

  44. Galaxy’s previous two polls had 49-37 and 49-39, very much in line with what the others were saying.

    The 44-42 looks like it was overly favourable to Labor, but the margin of error allows for the population value to be 47 to 39 without the poll being ‘wrong’ per se.

    Newspoll had 52-34 the week before. Stuff happens in one-off polls. It doesn’t indicate some kind of underlying bias, or ‘push polling’. It’s what Mr Palmer at OP calls ‘stochastic noise’.

    There is, as of right now, absolutely zero evidence of anything systematically wrong with Galaxy’s polling. Although I must admit, my eyebrows have been raised by the outcomes of some of these GetUp commissioned polls.

  46. Speaker, The Oz went through a very anti-Rudd phase where it was almost impossible to find a nice word about him but certainly has had a few kinder pieces of late. Rudd (and his polling figures) has survived a veritable onslaught and I think various players and pundits are beginning to (1) appreciate Rudd is a realistic chance and (2) look beyond the election.

  47. I think you were right the first time Leopold, the 44 – 42 Galaxy poll was favourable to Labor with 2PP at 53 – 47, a six pt lead. I think the excitement of the editorials in News Ltd papers about a Coalition resurgence misrepresented what the poll actually showed, a nice lead by Labor.

  49. Rudd’s wife Therese Rein has been cleared by the workplace(workchoices) watchdog of underpaying employees.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21970830-1702,00.html

    Will the fight of Industrial Relations now step up? The Union has been cleared by the AEC (if my memory serves me), now Therese Rein’s company has been cleared. They have thrown everything at Labor and Rudd and it’s hardly dented their standing in the polls.

    So where does that leave Shrek and Howard on their campaign?
    So where does that leave the Mark Textor run campaign for the ACCI and others on their campaign?

  50. Well Leopold, maybe that is the answer or more precisely, the excuse Galaxy need to provide and to take back the misleading headlines they created and wanted.

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