Idle speculation: national conference edition

The Coalition has again narrowed the gap in this fortnight’s Newspoll, although it remains at a daunting 57-43. Lateline reports that Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 46 per cent, with John Howard’s up three points to 39 per cent. The Australian’s report is not online yet, but will be by the time most of you read this. In other developments from the past week:

• Labor’s national executive has acted quickly on the authority it received from the national conference to preselect candidates for 25 New South Wales seats, nominating military lawyer Colonel Mike Kelly to run against Liberal member Gary Nairn in Eden-Monaro. In his role with the coalition provisional authority after the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Kelly is credited with efforts to blow the whistle on mistreatment of prisoners in Abu Ghraib and AWB’s payment of kickbacks to Saddam Hussein’s regime. David Humphries and Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald assess the state of play elsewhere as follows:

Greg Combet, the ACTU secretary, will be candidate for the Hunter seat of Charlton, replacing Kelly Hoare, who replaced her father, the former minister Bob Brown, in 1998. The right wing will decide replacements for Michael Hatton, who filled Paul Keating’s vacancy in Blaxland in 1996, and Julia Irwin, the MP for Fowler, also in Sydney’s south-west, since 1998. If Mr Rudd got his way, the likely candidate in Blaxland would be the University of NSW constitutional lawyer George Williams. But speculation is that the contest will be between Tania Mihailuk, the Mayor of Bankstown, and Bernie Riordan, the Electrical Trades Union boss. The favourite in Fowler, Warren Mundine, the former ALP president, may be overlooked because of demands to strengthen the number of women candidates.

• Following Senator Amanda Vanstone’s appointment as ambassador to Rome, the South Australian Liberal Party will hold its preselection to replace her on May 25, with nominations to close on Thursday. This is the third South Australian Liberal Senate vacancy in little over a year, following Robert Hill’s departure last March and Jeannie Ferris’s death earlier this month. As was the case with Santo Santoro’s vacancy in Queensland, the party administration has opted for a new ballot rather than promote an existing candidate for the coming federal election. The position would otherwise have gone to Maria Kourtesis, head of the nursing agency Prime Medical Placements. Kourtesis has been preselected for the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket (which she also filled at the 1996 election), behind Cory Bernardi (who replaced Hill), Simon Birmingham (who will replace Ferris) and Grant Chapman, a Senator since 1987. Kourtesis’s defeat at the hands of the long-serving but little-known Chapman caused considerable angst due to the state party’s poor record on female representation. It was also a defeat for the beleagured moderates faction; Vanstone, also a moderate, is among those who have called for the balance to be redressed by having Kourtesis take her spot. Kourtesis will instead face opposition from the Right’s Mary Jo Fisher, workplace relations lawyer and manager at Business SA. The winner will not face election later this year, as Vanstone’s term does not expire until 2011.

• Also in South Australia, Labor has endorsed Nicole Cornes, columnist for the Sunday Mail newspaper and wife of football identity Graham Cornes, to run against Liberal member Andrew Southcott in the Adelaide seat of Boothby. Cornes admits to having voted Liberal in the past, and wrote in her column in 2004 that John Howard had “proved himself to be a fine PM”. In the other normally safe Liberal seat in Adelaide, Sturt, Labor has nominated Mia Handshin – a former Young South Australian of the Year and “founder of inspirational speaking and consultancy group Mana of Speaking” – to run against Christopher Pyne.

Western Australian Liberal Senator Ross Lightfoot announced he would retire from politics on Friday after it became clear he would lose the number three position to Mathias Corman, state party senior vice-president. Corman is linked with fellow WA Senators Chris Ellison and Ian Campbell in a pro-Howard camp opposed by forces aligned with indestructible powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne. Last year, Lightfoot said he would have “no honourable course” but to quit the Liberal Party and serve out his term as an independent if he was dumped in an “undignified” manner. The Prime Minister reportedly instructed the state party to hold off on its preselection for as long as possible to minimise the effect of such an eventuality. However, despite Lightfoot’s complaint that the party should have chosen someone “more appropriate with respect to family values”, it does not appear that he plans to do so. The other incumbents, Alan Eggleston and David Johnston, have been re-nominated.

New South Wales Labor Senator George Campbell has announced he will retire from politics when his term expires in mid-2008, rather than face an inevitable preselection defeat. Campbell’s seat will go to his successor as national secretary of the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Doug Cameron, who by all accounts had stitched up the numbers to depose the 65-year-old Campbell long before. The other NSW Labor Senator up for re-election, Ursula Stephens, is reportedly at risk of being demoted in favour of the party’s high profile state secretary, Mark Arbib, who it was earlier believed had his eyes on Michael Hatton’s seat of Blaxland.

• The Northern News reports that the Liberal preselection for the safe northern Sydney seat of Mitchell will be held on an “unspecified date in May”. Under-achieving sitting member Alan Cadman, now 69, is apparently set on contesting again, despite having survived a challenge ahead of the 2004 election 58 votes to 55. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that the party’s state vice-president, Nick Campbell, has been “encouraged” by two federal ministers to nominate. Others mentioned as contenders are Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive David Elliott and solicitor Mark Blanche.

• The Poll Bludger has just had to cough up $239 in web hosting fees for the privilege of keeping you all entertained for another year. Contributions are welcome.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

333 comments on “Idle speculation: national conference edition”

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  1. What i found interesting is when i asked for support from the ACTU they told me they are not supporting any anti Howard party. Thats changed.

  2. Give me any male candidate whose CV has been torn apart line by line on this blog?

    I wait your apology but expect it about the time the PM delivers his to the stolen generation and actively pursues reconcilliation.

    Was your nutty rant directed at me ?

    It was actually David Jackmanson who tore apart her CV.

  3. William instead of Idle speculation: national conference edition maybe you should have called this Idle speculation: celebrity candidate edition.

  4. An Australian Hotels Association member running in Mitchell, the god-squad of the region will be up in arms. Before the last election Malcolm Turnbull tested the waters in this seat until settling for the more precarious Wentworth – Turnbull is a hundred times more talented than Cadman, and if he loses his seat I can guarantee that neither Cadman or Campbell will be capable of landing even the slightest of blows on the new government.

    I used to live in the seat of Mitchell, and this quote from Christian Kerr of Crickey sums of the politics of the region:
    “Cadman’s support base … comes from the congregation of the Redeemer Baptist Church – who have fought so successfully against pubs in the area that thirsty locals have to search through an industrial estate to find the Castle Hill Tavern or brave the traffic of Old Northern Road to stop by the Hillside Tavern – and those Good Weekend cover girls and boys at Hillsong, who draw thousands and take a million plus collection plate each Sunday.”

    If the “Bible belt” didn’t like Turnbull, they are going to despite the AHA guy, the choice between candidates will be “dead-wood” vs “even deader-wood”. If a tree falls in a forest at least some environmentalist might care, but no-one is going to care about the result of this pre-selection (except the lucky bugger with the 100K+ ticket to Canberra), apparent Campbell has claimed that Cadman isn’t “right-wing enough”, next he’ll be suggesting “Genghis Khan is too left-wing”

  5. I seem to recall Liberal pretty boy Simon Birmingham copping a few serves in the 2004 campaign.

    I don’t have any objection to Miss Handshin’s spiritual beliefs (I have none personally), but if the Libs put Alex Hawke up to take on Plibersek in Sydney, I’m fairly sure a few of us would be mocking his ‘spiritual’ beliefs in the context of the electorate.

  6. I made a very soft point about balance and an appearance in an apparent lack of balance that the intensive attack on the candidate is probably best explained by sexism.

    I am not directing at anyone, it is pretty much if a cap fits wear it type situation. I didn’t mean to attack anyone personally at all, I was just trying to point out that the thread as a whole seemed to reflect an unfair imbalance. I don’t care who points me to an attack on a male candidate, if it is there my observations about balance are incorrect and I would admit that.

    Michael’s posts I did find disturbing – and whether or not the two candidates in question can stand on their own two feet and beat quite a distasteful personal attack is quite irrelevant – the question is whether they should in a fair society have to take a nasty attack because they are women (this assumes my observation about imbalance was correct).

    Until now I haven’t even pointed out that this stream also has the number 3 WA Liberal senante candidate who will almost certainly be elected to Parliament without any discussion of whether or not he is fit to be an Australian Senator.

    I know I am female but I can read that funny word at the top of each post, um what is it … ah a name (I got a boy to help me remember it).

    Finally I give up I apologise for being female and for not being in a kitchen:

    “LIBERAL Senator Bill Heffernan says he stands by comments that Labor Deputy Leader Julia Gillard is not qualified to lead the country because she is deliberately “barren”.”

    This from the Australian PM’s right-hand man. We are back in the 60’s.

  7. My attack wasn’t based on gender I assure you. I clearly mocked her spiritual views.

    new age crystal worshipper

    See!

    I’m sure you can’t object to this after your own comments:

    those right-wing religious red-necks from Hillsong.

    Now you and I can be friends again and bathe in the warmth of shared bigotry.

  8. The Speaker said. Now you and I can be friends again and bathe in the warmth of shared bigotry.
    Everyone is full of humor today!

  9. “Now you and I can be friends again and bathe in the warmth of shared bigotry.”

    Is Mel Gibson invited too?

  10. No I objected to the nature and quality of the attack on the two female candidates which seemed disproprotionate to the actual evaluation of her. Much of the attack seemed pretty superficial and nasty and I suggested that sexism would be an explanation.

    I’m not quite sure my ‘you might be a redneck’ stuff aimed at a strong majority in a seat, who I say I believe is much more intelligent than many would give them credit for is quite the same as a suggestion an individual is an unfit candidate based on an allegation she once may have had her aura balanced.

  11. Heffernan is a key man in the Government of the Country, that you are right in your evaluation of him says a lot about the PM, the Country and our values.

  12. bill weller – given what Labor has been saying for months on IR what the bloody hell did those workers you talk about expect, a ringing endorsement of the Liberals policy? Sorry Bill but I don’t buy your assessment of the final result. The IR campaign will be in full swing during the election and there is only one party that will favour.

  13. Handshin good, but Cornes. To anyone who lives in Adelaide, people are shaking their heads, but I do believe a new ministry will be created for her, from reading her column. She’ll be the Minister for Sunshine, Ponies and Candy. You knew it would be Foley’s idea.

  14. Well, it is very telling of the quality of our politicians – especially since the same could be side of a number on both sides.

    Don’t think it says anything about the country.

    C-Woo

    Could you expand on your ‘Handshin good’ statement?

  15. Gary Bruce Says:
    May 1st, 2007 at 7:44 pm

    The IR campaign will be in full swing during the election and there is only one party that will favor.

    Lets see if Rudd keeps to his word on his ” Not 100% but better than the Libs policy”

    If the ALP win with a 3 seat majority i will be surprised.

    The strange thing i find is that i work in a factory, i have connections to community groups in Kingston. People seek me out to talk to about the election yet what i am hearing seems to upset bloggers on here. This is grassroots stuff no party polls or media opinion. Next week it all could change again. What i am saying is at this point of time some people are moving back to Howard and others are wavering. 3 live in boothby and when they found out Cornes was the candidate they decided to back Southcott. Pick what i say to bits but ive seen this before. I have made my own polls before elections and even the Republic refo in my workplace. Very interesting that it does follow the major polls quite well

  16. Seems more intelligent than Cornes. I don’t really need to say anymore. And Bill Weller, I see your point and I don’t blame ’em. I just hope this doesn’t affect Labor nationally.

  17. Well Bill, all I can say is that it hasn’t been picked up in the polls yet. Besides how do you know it is not confined to Boothby ie a local issue? I’m convinced much of Labor’s vote in the polls is solid. The next few weeks will tell us more.

  18. Mr Greg Combet is another likely ALP candidate who I think will also be a large part of making sure that the union movement in Australia does not become too powerful or strong.

    While his CV is more substantial than Ms Handshin’s, his job over the time of the ‘Your Rights At Work’ campaign has been to make sure that people vote for the ALP, without ever actually becoming powerful enough to take direct action themselves.

    Mr Combet will swallow every right-wing, anti-union policy that Rudd wants him to. Mr Combet will, I predict, refuse to oppose, Mr Rudd’s policy that would keep it illegal to stop work to take part in a ‘Your Rights At Work’ rally!

    On perhaps a more practical level, Mr Rudd will also make it very difficult indeed for union safety officers to inspect workplaces. Mr Combet, if a candidate and if elected, will support him.

    Mr Combet is already an important part of the team who makes certain that the union movement is usually disempowered and unprepared to fight in the interests of workers. While he’s had a high-profile victory in a good cause in the James Hardie case, he is helping the system that will make abuse of workers’ health and safety possible.

    He, and everyone who does what he does, are planning to make us slightly better-treated wage slaves than we are under Mr Howard.

    Mr Combet is just as unsuitable a representative, in my opinion, as Ms Handshin, and given his greater seniority, certainly does deserve more attention.

    I agree that remarks about physical attractiveness are better left out of a discussion about political candidates (I meant to agree with Mr Speaker that I thought it was a Che shirt that Ms Handshin is wearing, rather than agree with the comment about Ms Handshin’s looks, but did not express that clearly).

    I would say that tearing apart the CV of a candidate for Federal Parliament is fair enough.

    I also think that Ms Handshin’s spiritual views are likely to lead to her taking conservative, anti-conflict positions on many issues, which is relevant to a discussion about her politics.

    I do agree that it is important to make sure that female candidates are subject to the same level of scrutiny, and the same standards, as male candidates, and not higher ones.

    jasmine_Anadyr, do you have any examples of a male candidate whose CV you think I should give the same level of attention to as I have Ms Handshin?

  19. I disagree with David about discussing the attractiveness of candidates, I think its relevant to the extent that it effects the campaign. I recall hearing about some research that attractive candidates are more likely to win.

    So here’s a question, do you think Kevin Foley and the alp executive sat down and decided to recruit attractive women who work for the advertiser. You have to admit that its a but funny that after months of speculation about people like Linda Kirk in Boothby and Tony Pilkington in sturt that they end up with two women from the same occupation and same company.

  20. Oh there are many many very average candidates and you need me to do you a list? How about Stewart Henry in Hasluck, what of his qualifications has him untouchable while you look to do in the two female candidates in SA?

  21. Better looking people do get more votes than less good looking people. it is a fact

    also

    If you look at the leaders of the US UK and Australia there is only one bald person since the advent of televisions in every home (Howard, however Keating was balding also)- just an interesting tidbit, draw your own conclusions

  22. In regards to the views of candidates, and particularly ALP ones, their personal views don’t matter. they sign the pledge, become part of the machine and the organisation moves forward.

  23. David Jackmanson, your complaints about Combet are bizarre. The man isn’t even in parliament yet and you are already accusing him of selling out! Give the guy a chance – I’m sure you’ll have plenty of time to re-hash your rant in a couple of years, but for the moment, perhaps you could restrict your critique to things he has actually done or said up till now.

    Jasmine, good on you for sticking it up the boy’s club that exists on this site.

    Bill, I suspect that you’re in for a bit of disappointment regarding the size of Green vote in the coming election. I think the Rudd factor is mopping up all those disaffected ALP voters who have been flirting with the Greens, and I’d be surprised if the Green vote is much over 4% (obviously it will be much higher in Kingston, where I understand the Greens have a pretty dynamic candidate), with the re-election of a single Senator (Bob Brown).

  24. Mr. Weller, I think you’re a rather genuine bloke and I hope you get your campaign into full-swing (and I say this even though I am on the other side of the fence). You’re a working class lad, right? And the official Labor candidate is a wealthy Psychologist!

    Kingston is more working class territory, so, in reality, the ‘true’ Labor candidate is yourself! Pretty strange that they chose someone so distant from the people of the electorate to run. Here’s to you making inroads.

  25. Some tidbits from today’s SMH:

    Alex Hawke, whom Mr Brogden accused of undermining him before his resignation, is a surprise candidate for preselection in the federal seat of Mitchell. The lieutenant to the Liberal right-wing powerbroker David Clarke will stand against the sitting Liberal, Alan Cadman.

    THE former Labor senator Belinda Neal is lining up for another shot at federal politics by seeking preselection for the Central Coast seat of Robertson.

    The seat is one of 10 in NSW for which Labor’s national executive will preselect candidates on Saturday.

    The ACTU national secretary, Greg Combet, will be confirmed as the candidate for Charlton and the Mayor of Waverley, George Newhouse, will challenge Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth

    The national executive will most likely select the former Penrith mayor David Bradbury to stand against Jackie Kelly in Lindsay.

    Labor’s NSW Senate ticket is set to have Mark Arbib at number one, union boss Doug Cameron at two and Ursula Stephens at three.

    Inside the Liberal Party, the NSW branch heeded calls by John Howard to guarantee the preselection of the prominent moderate senator Marise Payne.

    But her protection angered the Liberals’ right, which accused Mr Howard’s lieutenants of an unprecedented abuse of process.

    On Monday, the right’s nominee, Scott McDonald, withdrew his bid to replace Senator Payne in a winnable spot.

    Sources said Mr McDonald quit after pressure from Mr Howard’s chief of staff, Tony Nutt, the Howard ally Bill Heffernan, and the party’s NSW director, Graeme Jaeschke.

    And the Australian Jewish News has already called Wentworth for Labor:

    WAVERLEY Mayor George Newhouse looks set to attempt to become the first Labor Party candidate to win the blue-ribbon seat of Wentworth in Sydney’s eastern suburbs.

  26. Amanda Rishworth will be amused at the suggestion that she is wealthy. As for Kingston’s being working class, well yes, a lot of it is but a lot isn’t. That’s why it’s a marginal seat. Bill Weller seems a genuine guy – if I was in Kingston I might even give him my first preference – but Amanda perhaps represents the aspirational female part of the electorate.

    Interesting to hear state MP Kris Hanna, former ALP, former Green, now Independent, come out in support of Nicole Cornes because she’s not a member of the political caste system from which so many candidates come. Hanna’s seat of Mitchell is within Boothby. He could be a valuable ally for her.

  27. I’m reaching here but is ‘true labor’ a bloke in a blue singlet with a beer in his hand and a dog in his ute?

    I’m not quite sure I’m buying the rest of the image but I know you’all would like the girl in the blue singlet just so long as the blue singlet was a bit small and tight and she doesn’t have the gall to run for parliament!!!!!!!!!!!

  28. bill weller Says: May 1st, 2007 at 6:33 pm – “News from my workplace. Voters are drifting back to Howard. These are blue collar workers not huge numbers yet BUT I WILL PREDICT a close election with Howard over the line.”
    bill weller Says: May 1st, 2007 at 8:17 pm – “This is grassroots stuff no party polls or media opinion. NEXT WEEK IT COULD CHANGE AGAIN. What i am saying is AT THIS POINT IN TIME some people are moving back to Howard and others are wavering.”
    So Bill, you are prepared to make a prediction six months out from the election on very limited information which, in your own words, “next week it could change” and is limited to “at this point in time”. Hmm.

  29. Many of us are considering with interest the prospects of the Australian Labor Party at the next election; indeed, some are desiring that the PPP (as Alan Ramsey has dubbed him) will be the next Prime Minister of the country we all love. The opinion polls are lookin’ good for the ALP but the reality is there are another six months to the actual poll so let’s not get ahead of ourselves, however noble those sentiments (and I daresay, hopes) about the outcome of that poll . That is friendly advice to those who “wear their hearts on their sleeve”, as far as the Australian Labor Party is concerned. I think Bill Weller is quite entitled to share his musings about “grassroots stuff”.

  30. Any updated word on George Williams’ chances in Blaxland? Both Rudd and even Whitlam have endorsed him. It would be a total screw up if he doesn’t make it to federal parliament. Maybe the Senate would be better, because he is a nuts and bolts guy.

  31. I’m a liitle suspicious of other contributors trying to define the “real” Labor voter, something which Jasmine has alluded to. It might seem obvious, but Australia is one of the most middle class nations in the world, and it is in this demographic that the election will be won or lost. The so-called “battlers” have always been a bit of self-serving myth.

    The whole IR debate is getting interesting. Both big business and big media are clearly taking the gloves off, now that the ALP has an actual policy to aim at, and the battle lines are well and truly drawn. However, I wonder how effective all this right wing bluster is. It could well be that WorkChoices is so toxic for the government, that whenever IR gets on the front page (in whatever context), it’s a net negative for Howard. Kind of like the refugee thing (in reverse) in 2001. Word came out in the week of the election that Howard and Reith had lied, but all it did was put the issue of refugees back in the front of people’s minds. I suspect the same thing might be happening here with IR. Don’t forget, your average swinging voter doesn’t pay too much attention to politics outside of election campaigns.

  32. Today The Advertiser announced Labor candidates for Barker (Karen Lock), Grey (Karin Bolton), Mayo (Mary Brewerton), Boothby (Nicole Cornes) and Sturt (Mia Handshin) – all women, but there has been commentary on only two of them.

    Throw in the candidate for Kingston (Amanda Rishworth) and the member for Adelaide (Kate Ellis), and you are left with only SA four seats with male Labor candidates – Hindmarsh (Steve Georganas MHR), Makin (Tony Zappia), Port Adelaide (Mark Butler) and Wakefield (Nick Champion).

    Having said that, the four men have a strong chance of victory but only two of the women are in that category.

  33. The ALP IR policy is a dog.

    what a let off, it should be the first lesson in “How to let an opponent back in the Game”

    It shows the ALP to be:

    under the control of unions;
    regressive and backward looking;
    not serious about economic growth and productivity.

  34. Further if people want to rip up someone for nutty religious beliefs then Alex Hawke is a good place for the discussion to move to

  35. “but is ‘true labor’ a bloke in a blue singlet with a beer in his hand and a dog in his ute?”

    Only if he has bare feet.

  36. The ALP IR policy is a dog. Hmm thanks … the Offical Government News Agency and the disinterested business community have mentioned this.

    Any evidence the opponent is back in the game other than the biased press reflected in your post?

    I take your points in order-

    – um really – took you 100 years to notice the link between the labor movement and the Labor Party. Pretty sharp observation. However, there is no evidence the Parliamentary Party is acting in accordance with union instructions in fact it seems mostly the other way around. A distinction the Liberals and Big Business couldn’t draw.

    – yeah back to a fair go, back to the most economically advantageous system, that benefits productivity which is growing at an ever slower rate under the neglect of Howard and his clowns.

    – um nice government talking point – got any substance at all?

  37. I suppose a if a fair go if someone in an office whose never worked in my field, deems my value as a worker then i can see the link.

    when creating a good or service a firm mixes labour and capital to achieve a point in production where the firm produces the right number of goods to supply the market at the best price available to both producer and consumer.

    when the cost of labour increases the cost of overall production increases this means that for the firm to aachieve the profits it sought when it began producing will either have to produce and sell more items or reduce the cost of production.

    so when faced with this choice, the easiest short term answer is to let staff go, and produce at a lower more profitable point.

    another point, when dealing at near full employment a number of things happen, one of which is waged based inflation, by arbitrarily setting base minimums too high it will only force inflation higher.

    the Labor model will see salaries go up but not real wages.

    the Liberal model will see a range of price variations while real wages grow.

    I would also appreciate it if you going to accuse me of spouting Lib talking points not to use the standard labor line, please try to be more creative in your attack next time

  38. Goodness, every one back to their corners! It seems that as the election gets closer, we are all being a bit guilty of spouting the party line. I trust I’m not breaking some sacred blogger code by pointing out that each of us is talking out of our respective backsides when we’re crystal ball gazing about the likely fall out of this or that.

    The next Newspoll, however, should be instructive – this will appear after the ALP’s IR position has taken root in people’s minds, and of course the Budget. Much to play for this month for both sides, methinks.

  39. Well there are points made by both sides of politics that have some substance. No-one is seriously arguing that worstchoices doesn’t remove fairness and drive down wages and conditions – it is just whether this is a good thing or not. Essentially whether business profits justifies exploitation of young kinds and the disadvantaged of society. Rio BHP and the Government delighted to support exploitation; labor not so delighted. Plenty of substance there but not that much disagreement on the substance just the outcomes.

    And then there is truthiness talking points; like the war in Iraq is going well; like there was a link between Iraq and 9/11; labor is bad for the economy.

    Well if you are going to make a substantive point out of labor being bad for the economy you might start by explaining why Keating and Hawke created this economy given labor isn’t interested in the economy?

  40. THe Greatest thing that i never understood about the Labor party is why Whitlam is the Hero and not Hawke.

    i never got it

    Keating and Hawke remade Austrlia, with a great deal of support from the Opposition of the Day.

    Then Keating Loses and the old ACTU hacks like Crean and the Labor gentry like Beazley just chuck it out.

    and now 11 years later Labor is trying to take it back, well its a bit late now.

    15 years ago Labor had all the answers but since Keating they have soundly rejected Keatingism.

  41. Blackjack said:

    “but is ‘true labor’ a bloke in a blue singlet with a beer in his hand and a dog in his ute?”

    Only if he has bare feet.

    If it’s a clean four wheel drive he’s a Liberal voter.

    If he has two dogs on his ute he’s a National Party Voter.

    If he has a gun in his ute he’s a One Nation voter.

    If it’s a Prius he’s a Greens voter.

  42. Just to put the IR debate into perspective I had a look at the ABS jobs figures. In the year to March 2007 employment grew by 2.8%. Not bad but not far above the average of 2.2% since the boom began in the early 1990s. Higher growth rates were achieved pre-WorkChoices over the same period in 2005 and 2000. The best growth rate – 4.1% – was in the year to March 1995 under Keating.

    Not sure what that proves except that it’s very difficult to attribute a macro-economic impact to any one piece of micro-economic reform and most of the current union-bashing is just old fashioned political posturing. Anyone who has had anything to do with these business groups knows that they are just as full of political hacks and no more representative of today’s real business world than the unions are of today’s workforce.

    To put it very simply, up until now Labor has been playing to its base – the workers – and Howard to his base – employers. Labor is in front because there are more workers than employers.

    But to win an election both parties need broader appeal. Labor now has a credibility problem with business but the Libs have arguably a bigger problem with the so-called Howard battlers who delivered three of the last four elections. We’ll see how the tackle that one in the budget.

  43. I think what may ultimately lose the ALP this election is the quality of its candidates. It seems to have nominated too many union hacjs/officials for seats where that particular demographic does not play well -take Craig Thompson in Dobell, Mike Symons in Deakin and I’m quite sure there are quite a few other examples

    I think imposing Combet on Charlton is probably a mistake, although he’ll likely win the seat. While I will concede that Kelly Hoare is certainly not the most high profile or the most high flying MP in Canberra, she has a great deal of local name recognition and profile due to the fact that both she and her father have represented the electorate since its establishment. After the fallout from the pre-selection saga involving Bryce Gaudry in neighboring Newcastle, the intervention of the ALP executive once again to impose a candidate on local branches may leave a bad taste in the mouths of many local ALP branches and traditional Labor voters. I do realize that Ms Hoare’s father has recently been expelled from the party for daring to have the audacity to question His Mighty Highness Mark Il-Arbib’s decision to impose Jodi McKay on the electorate and perhaps this is further payback but I think the ALP is hurting its long term prospects in the Hunter region by treating the local ALP branches with such contempt time and time again

    Having said that, both Irwin and Hatton need replacing -they are both talentless party hacks with absolutely nothing to contribute to either their electorates or the nation. And I think Warren Mundine should have entered Parliament a long time ago -he is truly one of the bright lights of the party

    I do not agree with the criticism of Mia Handshin -despite all her New Age philosophy, she seems to have an impressive CV and background. Natalie Cornes is a different matter -she seems to be a political opportunist at the very least considering her sudden reversal of political ideology. I think Labor has made a very bad choice here. And it’s all very well to nominatre Mike Kelly for Eden-Monaro because of his admirable views on the Iraq war -and I do think he should be given a seat somewhere -but does he have the local profile necessary to win a seat like Eden-Monaro?. In the end, I think that this will be the crucial factor in winning the seat

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