An ACNielsen poll conducted between Thursday and Saturday has Labor leading 61-39, with 83 per cent saying the Brian Burke affair had not affected their opinion of Kevin Rudd. The accompanying Sydney Morning Herald report also says "internal Labor polling had shown the Coalition’s relentless attacks on Mr Rudd’s judgement and character had hurt the Coalition more than Labor". Perhaps one might go so far as to venture that there are signs of a trend emerging.
Adam are you saying not only will the Greens not gain extra senate seats but will actually loose one?
Yes. Three quotas is only 42.9%. The disappearance of One Nation and the Democrats has boosted the primary vote of both major parties, to the point where the most likey result is 3 seats each. In 2001 the Greens won a seat in NSW with 4.3% of the vote, while in 2004 they got 7.3% and failed to win a seat. Why? Because the combined Coalition-ALP vote rose from 75.1% to 80.4%. In 2007 the Green vote could rise again to 10%, and they would still miss out. But I don’t think it will rise – Nettle is not a very conspicuous Senator and Rudd will bring a lot of the floaters back to Labor. The Coalition vote will fall, but not enough to cost them a seat, while the Labor vote will rise. Nettle will be left stranded with her primaries and nothing much else. The same will happen in the other states, except Tas.
Hugo said
On another matter, I can’t help feeling that the minor parties are going to be squeezed in this year’s election. The ALP vote has been firmed up by Rudd, and the issues – Iraq, climate change, IR – are taking on quite a polarising aspect. You’d expect the Democrats to be largely wiped out, and even the Greens may see a bit of a contraction in their vote (I think Nettle will be in some trouble in NSW).
That could happen if the ALP keeps its form to the polls but i cant see the Rudd/ALP staying this far in front all the way along. The sad thing is on the issues you mentioned above the Greens have much stronger policies but i doubt, due to the anti Green media they will see the light of day. I myself am running far left of the ALP in Kingston have been involved in the YR@W here and have been a union activist for many years turning up to actions where even the AMWU have not bothered. Along comes an outsider of Kingston gets preselected for the ALP and then starts turning up to meeting etc and gets a article in the local paper. There are parts of Kingston especially in the towns of Willunga, Aldinga , Maslins beach and possibly Mclaren Vale which have good Green booths. ( example 13.4% 10.33 % 9.22 %) and seaside suburbs booths pushing 9%. These are what you would call true green voters. The rest of Kingston sits around 5%. I would hope that my work as a unionist would increase that 5% but without any media coverage its going to be hard. Can you imagine the horror of the major party conservatives and their media buddies if the Greens could poll around 15 %!
Adam
If thats the case and if Rudd wins the workers will still be fighting for rights. Many Unionists are hoping for a Green controlled senate due to their IR policies. They want Bob Brown to visit Kingston and that would do wonders for me but i am being a bit selfish there. haha
Bill, I’m sure you are doing an excellent job drumming up the 10% or so “left” vote and feeding it to Amanda Rishworth as preferences. No doubt as a good SDA sister she will remember you in her prayers. But as a minor party candidate that’s all you can expect to do. As Hugo said, the real worth of the Greens is getting issues on the table so that the major parties respond with policies of their own. Read Chris Evans on coal in today’s Australian. He has taken a sensible centre posiition between the Libs and the Greens – and he is a leader of the Labor left, by the way. But it was Brown’s raising of the issue that got it on the front burner, so to speak.
I did get the childhood obesity and tuck shop debate into the last state election. From one letter i wrote it snowballed to radio and had the local MP stating ” The community is not ready to take that responsibility ” after community support went for 3 weeks it suddenly became an ALP policy. Pity one year on and we now have the government slashing spending on physical education in schools. As for the SDA what a useless waste of space its unions with weak leaders that show a need to have one big super union worldwide but then i am delving into the Wobblies territory .
Adam, I am sure you meant Coalition 39, ALP 33, Green 3 FF 1. What do you think of the Greens chances in picking up a seat off the Coalition in Vic or SA? As you mention possibly the ALP could pick up 4 in one or two states, also the best chance being in SA and Vic with the current polls.
Either option would need the ALP and Greens to swap preferences in both states.
Could you comment Bill?
Yes that’s what I meant.
I think the Greens have zero chance anywhere except Tas and possibly WA, for the reasons described above. The collapse of the Dems and ON virtually guarantees that both Labor and the Coalition will get close to 3 quotas in the other four states, leaving no surplus for the Greens, and the Greens are not going to get a quota in their own right.
It’s possible that Labor will gain seats from the Coalition, but I think it is unlikely. I will be happy to be proved wrong. 🙂
Labor won`t get 4 senators up in any state.
Any surplus over a third quota would be distributed for a Green vs Liberal fight(barring a Vic 2004 FF like thing).
Question: where will Peter Andren run?
* Where voters in the new Calare come from: Calare: 54.2, Parkes 41.8, Gwydir 3.9
* Where voters in the new Macquarie come from: Macquarie 51.3, Calare 42.7, Lindsay 5.8, Gwydir 0.2
* Where voters in the old Calare have gone: Calare 55.0, Macquarie 45.0
All this suggests that Andren should contest Calare.
That assumes a uniform vote across the old electorate. In rural areas in the old electorate and in Orange he polled in the 60% band. In the population centre of Bathurst he polled around 75%. In Lithgow 80%.
Check out the Booth results from 2004.
While Andren would clearly win if he moved west, his strongest areas are moving east into Macquarie. Given that he’s got a hard road ahead in either Calare or Macquarie, if he wants to be sure of holding his seat, he’s likely to come east.
The question is whether he is indeed a man of integrity and principle, or if he’s actually just keen on staying in, no matter what. I mean, if he is about giving country people the voice that the Nationals no longer provide, as he’s said all along, he should go west and fight the Nats, rather than coming east, into a metropolitan/regional seat, and fighting Labor.
I thought the open secret in and around Orange was that Andren would run in Calare where he will be up against the demoted “assistant minister” John Cobb.
The Nats must be disappointed by Cobbie. After his time leading the NSW Farmers Association, there was talk of him as a future leader, but his performance in the House and as a junior minister have left very little confidence in him.
Which begs the question – who could succeed Vaile as Nats’ leader? Truss might be deputy, but the thought of a Qld Nat in charge of the party just seems a little too crazy…
Cobb is a total dud, Truss is reasonably competent but very dull, McGauran is a goose, and who else is there? The Nats do have a serious lack of talent. That’s why they are keen to get Larry Anthony back in Page.
Yes, you know you’re in trouble if Noah Vaile is the only plausible leader. Why are we talking about his succession? Are the rumours about the melanoma true?
If the polls stay this bad for the government, what are the chances of Jeanette coming down with a “serious illness” necessitating JWH’s retirement in, say, July? Unlikely, to be sure, but he’d probably rather history saw him “cutting & running” rather than “losing after staying on too long”.
Interesting analysis from Cameron on Lateline last night – basically that the great unwashed are a bit sick of Howard, and that the phrase “cunning politician” was morphing from a compliment to a criticism. There’s always the risk for a leader of Howard’s vintage that he would overnight transform from a “wise & sagacious” leader, to one who’s just “old & past it”.
The thought processes of the masses are indeed a deep mystery. At what point for example did all the qualities Keating had been admired for all his career suddenly become negatives? Why did they suddenly turn on Kennett? Why are they willing to forgive Iemma all failures? There is a very wide cultural gulf between us of the chattering classes, whatever our politics, and them of the non-chattering classes, who don’t know why they behave the way they do and therefore can’t tell us.
Adam and Hugo,
None of this really matters chaps, The economy is doing well and there are 7 Labor state Governments, the rodent aint going anywhere come October – and dont forget Julia MEDICARE GOLD has still to come out and produce a TURKEY of a policy with DOUGIE at the ALP national conference next month.
*counts states on fingers, can’t think of seventh state* – nauru?
Sadly I’m not a delegate next month, sure the PTB will ensure I’m there next time but having declared that lack of conflict … can’t see if running anyway but like clockwork.
Any sparks will be well scripted and the fire put out by the ‘brilliant statesman and leader’.
If the ALP and Greens can do a preference deal i think the Greens could win an extra seat or two in the senate. I think the Greens will push Downer in Mayo as well
It’s either six state governments or eight state/territory governments. Or Ed counted his thumb twice. Or he could have been including a state of denial.
Mr Q said: “Or he could have been including a state of denial”
The funniest thing i have heard all month.
bill I have carefully explained twice now why it not likely that the Greens will win more Senate seats. Either you have to agree with me or you have to refute my arithmetic. You can’t just go on asserting it as a matter of faith.
As to Mayo, the Democrats gave Downer a scare in 1998 when John Schuman outpolled the ALP. But as I have said before, you can’t just assume that the Greens will inherit the whole Democrat vote. A lot of Democrats have gone back to the Liberals, others have gone to Labor. The Democrats challenged Downer from the centre, you are trying to do it from the left. I think you will find that people in the Adelaide Hills like their cars and their fur coats more than you think. Schuman got 22% of the vote. In 2004 the Green got 7.6%. You might get up to 10 or 15 but you won’t get ahead of Labor.
Adam, yet again the whole loss of cars and fur coats fiction comes out. I know you aren’t stupid enough to believe it, so don’t spread lies. The Greens aren’t against cars, they are against using fossil fuel for the sake of using it. As for fur coats, there aren’t that many fur coats that are real fur coats, thus there is no problem.
You ask Bill to rebut your numbers with his numbers (logic), whilst you refute arguaments with obvious lies. So you must either be hypocritical or a moron. Or maybe both
Lol – yes I didnt even think of toytown – home of the Al Grassby statue and yes NT is not a state.
But Hugo/Adam so unions have produced parliamentarians who have been other then hacks – name one after hawke?
Sacha,
You ask me what my view is on the characterisation of the “race to the bottom†as “pulling the people at the bottom upâ€. The topic deserves more than can be dealt with here, but I will give a few thoughts.
110 years ago, if you wanted to bring something from NSW into the progressive state of Victoria, you would have had to pay a tariff. Federation put an end to that, and no one says we should go back to creating Victoria as a separate manufacturing or economic entity. The world must and will take the same path. Eventually, though not in my lifetime, we will have one world economy, one world currency and one world government. These things will not result from a grand plan – they will evolve.
When a peasant in a poor country leaves the farm for a poorly paid job in the city, he may be taking a step up compared to what he has known. So we ought to be gradually opening our economy to the efforts of other nations to help that person. But we cannot do it quickly for it would create too much dislocation here.
We need to be conscious that the purpose of the union movement is to distribute the wealth created. We are in an era when company profits as a percentage of GDP are the highest they have ever been – and it’s not regarded as an issue, not even by the ‘leftâ€. We should therefore assist the union movement in other countries.
I am conscious that this discussion is off-topic, but I believe that the Labor Party should not apologise for its union links. I know we cannot recreate the highly unionised workforce of 30 and 50 years ago, but I do not think the Liberal tactics of union-bashing are anything to be frightened of.
Bill,
I admire your determination and commitment. I used to think like you when I was a DLP candidate – jus a bit more effort and I would eventually get enough votes for preferences to come from someone to push me over the line. I’m not saying that you expect to win personally, but your belief in the Greens makes you think they are going to do better than they will. In the 1977 Greensborough by-election, in what I think was a first in Australia, we hand-addressed, hand-sorted and hand-delivered letters to every voter, with a separate letter to teachers, given my background in teaching in and unionism. My vote went up, but unfortunately it was the Democrats’ first outing, and they had the media on side. Without the Democrats, I would have done better, but not by a lot. Basically, the DLP was on the slide – and nothing I did -either publicly or within the party – could stop that. The Greens aren’t on the slide, but there is a limit to their appeal, and that’s just the way life is.
It is easy to criticise the SDA. Teachers are forever criticising the weakness of the AEU, but then they go and vote for the deterioration in conditions that it agrees to in its EBA. Most teachers do not vote in union elections. Given the quality of the opposition group, which still thinks it’s 1970, this is not surprising, but you would think that somewhere in the profession there are some talented people willing to put a realistic alternative view. The retail workforce is largely female, young and casual. The SDA people I know are genuine decent people who are as appalled at the Howard government’s IR laws as you are, but they are not in an industry whose personnel are militant. Don’t forget that miners, once in the most militant union you could have, have sold out the whole idea of solidarity by signing individual contracts in their thousands.
Chris, thanks for your reply.
Hi Chris thank you for the complements and your background as a DLP candidate. The problem i have with the SDA is not the membership but the leaders. Two years ago Howard attended a Liberal conference at the Festival theater in Adelaide. There was an action organized by students who worked at the various fast food restaurants etc which was against the introduction of Howards IR laws. There was no representation by the SDA bosses leaving it to the students to organize themselves and spreading the word. It was attended by the Greens AMWU, students, anarchists and the DSP/SA with some elderly pedestrians joining in. Scuffles broke out due to the Police pushing everyone back as first Vanstone and then Howard showed up. The best action i saw that day was an elderly lady standing face to face with a policeman and silently shaking her head. If the SDA had got of its backside the numbers would have showed Howard they meant business but alas it was not to be. Inactivity breeds complacency and shows anti worker forces where to attack first.
Hi Adam i cannot produce any figures to refute your ideas just a belief that unless we suffer another false anti Green campaign the Greens will produce more senators. We will have to wait and see.
Bill,
I stand ready to be corrected on this, but the only street protests that I can recall that ever had a significant effect on politics were those over Vietnam. S11, G20, XXX, George Bush with a little moustache, mindless chanting – none of them mean anything in the big scheme of things. (I confess I did attend the first anti-Kennett march in Melbourne, but I found myself in fear of being run over by a truck literally a metre behind me which those with some authority thought was safe to be driven in the midst of hundreds of people, so that was the end of this ex-DLPer’s physical protest activity.) Change in a democratic society comes via a different route.
If the members of the SDA are unhappy with their leaders, they are free to organise and elect different ones. You are obviously free to criticise the leaders of the SDA, but I don’t think it will get you anywhere.
Chris said :The Greens aren’t on the slide, but there is a limit to their appeal, and that’s just the way life is.
Thats true but what do people who like myself believe in Green principles? Join the ALP left faction to become another voiceless member with the rest? With the Greens i not only believe in our policies but have a voice and there are ample opportunities to be involved in all parts of the party. For two long i was just a voter moving from the ALP to the Democrats and finally with the Greens. It was when i was handing How to vote cards for a small party in SA that i talked to a Green member and went home thinking this guy makes sense. I am the tireless worker that would normally work in the background. For me to be a candidate has been a big turn around as i am quite shy but having to change this has made me a better person
Santo Santoro has just resigned over his share dealings as he quotes it “a number of oversights”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21392639-1702,00.html
The government is steadily losing its grip especially in QLD.
Also Morgan Poll just out – steady at 61-39 to the ALP
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4149/
Chris YR@W actions are making a huge difference. it will have the ALP candidate win in Kingston as it will in most marginals.
From Lib briefing
The Prime Minister today released the following statement:
“Earlier today I accepted the resignation of Santo Santoro as Minister for Ageing.
After a detailed review of his financial records, required by me, he provided advice indicating a number of investments not hitherto disclosed to the Senate or to me.
He has written to the Registrar of Senators’ Interests today providing the relevant information.
While commonsense needs to be applied to issues of ministerial conduct including the capacity to accept inadvertent error, circumstances such as those now outlined by him are unacceptable.
Senator Santoro clearly has failed to comply with the rules of the Senate and has not made the disclosures to me required of him as a Minister.
He had no option but to resign.”
Once a government’s luck turns, it REALLY turns. I see Hardgrave has committed political suicide today as well (Australian, p2). Milton Dick must be positively tumescent with glee.
If the polls turned into the actual result “61-39 to the ALP” nation wide How many seats would the ALP win?
Too many for a healthy democracy. Thankfully, that won’t happen 🙂
It seems Labor have picked up Morteon (Gary Hardgrave’s seat)… the first win for Labor of the election.
Labor 61% of the 2PV would be a 17% swing, which would leave the Coalition with 12 seats.
Here is the link (I hope) to the item mentioned above by Adam on Gary Hardgrave in todays copy of The Australian…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21390681-5006786,00.html
At least Gary Hardgrave got one thing right, when he reportedly said… “how stupid the faction-driven Queensland Liberal Party can be”. I suppose that he should know better than most of us.
I am certain that whatever the ultimate result nationally, the ALP in Qld will gain a much better than average swing (or in case of some dire eventuality, due to circumstances as yet unseen, less of a negative one).
i know im late but on the SDA
a pack of middle aged women dont care for politics generally.
the reason for the the sda inability to mobilise is because it isnt like other unions, it rarely strikes, it cosies upto the businesses its meant to fight with and its member ship dont think the union actually does anything for it
SDA people are members but not believers in their union.
I know this from too many years at coles myer
if 61-39 was the election result Labor would win about 55 of the coalition’s seats, as adam said leaving them with 12.
It is a truely strange situation when the Roy Morgan results start to sound sensible, i’m wondering if the other polling companies have caught the strange Morgan disease and are grossly overestimating the alp vote
POLITICAL UPDATE
The Howard government look over. One or two more disasters (and with interest rates and inflation going up) as i said, it’s Rudd if he wants it.
Thank you Queenslander you have shown the points i was making. The choice in Kingston on the anti Howard side is a non resident { of Kingston) SDA ALP candidate or a long time resident AMWU delegate Green.
NEWSPOLL NEXT WEEK
I think Labor’s and Rudd ratings will go up at average of 2% maybe.
More importantly is, how can the government get back. Except with 24 hours with the Brian Burke thing and slightly with the Murray-Darling thing, they just don’t seem to have any momentum on their side at the moment.
My thinking is that they are using 2004 tactics for a 2007 electraote. And at the moment their failing either out of changing situations (Iraq) or just general government clumsiness (what happened today).
At the moment you feel they have only one weapon. The economy. My feeling is if they want to start getting dominance of Rudd over this, they have to start this week. Lay off the name-calling unless it’s relevant to what you’re talking about and let Howard/Costello and Rudd/Swan have a good debate about economic debate (especially with inflation and interest rates expected to rise, this will make for a good debate). If they don’t, by early May, they will not look urgent. And that’s Howard’s problem. He’s expecting to win like in 2004. And i don’t know whether he’s got enough advantages to do that (even the economy ie:interest rate broken promises could be a weakness.
What was “the Murray-Darling thing”? Was Andrew Murray found in bed with Captain Darling?
I have made eight unsuccessful attempts to post to this thread. This is a test.
That worked, so I will break my post into smaller bits.
Bill,
You are right to say that YR@W is making a difference, but I don’t think big – okay, not that small – rallies at the MCG have helped.
If I were you I would disabuse myself of the notion that the ALP left faction is left. It’s best thought of as a tribe, rather than an ideological entity. I’m not in the ALP left faction, so I am not voiceless.
It won’t allow any more. This is another test.
I’m not saying to give up the Greens either.
Just be prepared for disappointment. As the counting proceeded in the 1970 Senate election, it was apparent that we would get Frank McManus, Vince Gair and Jack Kane elected.