Morgan’s last word

Channel Nine has given details of the final Roy Morgan poll of the campaign: Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, but trails 39 per cent to the Coalition’s 41 per cent on the primary vote. The Greens are on 12 per cent, which is remarkably consistent with other agencies’ findings, while Family First is on 3.5 per cent. Laurie Oakes tells Nine viewers he "wouldn’t be surprised" if the Greens won two lower house seats, "or even three".

UPDATE: Full details here.

UPDATE II: Speaking on the ABC’s Stateline program, Paul Austin of The Age has just said their poll tomorrow will show the race is “perhaps a bit closer than some people might have thought”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5 comments on “Morgan’s last word”

  1. 4.8% swing then according to Morgan

    Uniform = 11 seats to the Liberals

    My final prediction

    LIB Gain (12)

    Evelyn
    Hastings
    Gembrook
    Kilsyth
    Ferntree Gully
    Mount Waverley
    Bayswater
    Eltham
    Morwell
    South Barwon
    Burwood
    Mitcham

    GRN Gain (1)

    Melbourne

    Nothing else changes

    Final

    ALP 49
    LIB 29
    NP 7
    IND 2
    GRN 1

    The big thing for me will be to see what % swings happen in the seats in the 5.8-9.7% ALP range, the Libs need 4-5% in all those to setup for 2010

    Upper House way too complicated and my abacus is broken

  2. Interesting to note on the detailed story about the Morgan Poll, they are suggesting that Family First may end up holding the balance of power in the Upper House with a possible breakdown of –

    ALP 17
    Liberal 16
    National 3
    Green 3
    Family First 1

  3. Family fiest will not win any seat. I would like to know under what circumstances this claim is made. I have not seen them come up on any of my analysis. It’s one thing to say they will win but another to not say how or where.

  4. My predictions

    ALP returned

    Greens to win Melbourne

    Liberals to gain

    Hastings
    Bayswater
    Mt Waverly
    Ferntree Gully
    South Barwon
    Kilsyth
    Gembrook
    Rippon
    Everlyn

    Seats to close to call

    Burwood
    Mitcham
    Forrest Hill
    Frankston
    Prahran
    Seymour
    Eltham
    Narracan
    Morwell
    Bellarine
    Richmond
    Mornington
    Box Hill

    Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch

    These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote
    Bayswater
    Hastings
    Mitcham

    Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates

    Narrie Warren North
    Narrie Warren South
    Cranbourne
    Hastings
    Yan Yean
    Melton
    Eltham
    Yuroke
    Tarneit

  5. My predictions

    ALP returned

    Greens to win Melbourne

    Liberals to gain

    Hastings
    Bayswater
    Mt Waverly
    Ferntree Gully
    South Barwon
    Kilsyth
    Gembrook
    Rippon
    Everlyn

    Seats to close to call

    Burwood
    Mitcham
    Forrest Hill
    Frankston
    Prahran
    Seymour
    Eltham
    Narracan
    Morwell
    Bellarine
    Bentleigh
    Mordallioc
    Richmond
    Mornington
    Box Hill
    Bass
    South Coast

    Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch

    These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote
    Bayswater
    Hastings
    Mitcham

    Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates

    Narrie Warren North
    Narrie Warren South
    Cranbourne
    Hastings
    Yan Yean
    Melton
    Eltham
    Yuroke
    Tarneit

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