Home straight

The Poll Bludger’s insufficiently proof-read upper house election guide is now available for viewing. It will be cleaned up and maybe expanded a little in due course. I will also be back in the land of regular internet access tomorrow, so campaign developments in the final week will be covered in a more timely fashion than they have been of late.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

42 comments on “Home straight”

  1. I looked at the group tickets on Anthony Greens site. I noted that compared to WA the Nats and Greens don’t seem to be very friendly in Victoria. In the West theres been 15 years of slow tempered mutual recognition that has probably helped both. Obviously in Victoria the parties still have a little to learn about STV. Sure they’re not exactly “Best Buddies”, but they don’t always put each other last in WA.

  2. Southern Metro ALP 2 Liberal 3
    South East Metro ALP 3 Liberal 2
    Eastern Metro ALP 2 Liberal 2 Unknown 1
    Northern Metro ALP 2 Liberal 2 Greens 1
    Western Metro ALP 3 Liberal 2 unknown 1
    Western Victoria ALP 2 Liberal 2 National 1
    Northern Victoria ALP 2 Liberal 2 National 1
    Eastern Victoria ALP 2 Liberal 2 National 1

    ALP 18 Liberal 17 National 3 Greens 1

    2 Unknown Eastern Metro and Western Metro, to me are between the following

    Eastern Metro ALP – Liberals – Family First – Greens
    Western Metro ALP – Greens

  3. Colleen Hartland is not the Greens’ spokesperson on drugs, that belongs to Richard di Natale (lower house Melbourne candidate). Additionally, Sue Pennicuik is no longer the head of the party’s administrative wing, although she was in a former life.

    Nice synopsis, though.

  4. I have a feeling that the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Council. I must admit though I haven’t studied the Upper House data.

  5. In Northern Metro the wrong candidate is highlighted (the same happened earlier).

    The Greens lead candidate for Northern Vic is not shown.

  6. Hey Bill

    In your summary table of Western Victoria Region you list Elaine Carbines as a Liberal not Labor.

    I also assume that the figures are Labors Primary vote in the lower house at the last election and not the primary vote in the upper house? AS there are some interesting diffferences between those

  7. EM 2 Lab 2 Lib 1 Grn
    EV 2 Lab 2 Lib 1 Toss-up (Nat vs Grn)
    NM 3 Lab 1 Lib 1 Grn
    NV 2 Lab 2 Lib 1 Nat
    SEM 3 Lab 1 Lib 1 Toss-up (Lib vs Grn)
    SM 2 Lab 2 Lib 1 Grn
    WM 3 Lab 1 Lib 1 Toss-up (Lab vs Grn vs Lib)
    WV 2 Lab 2 Lib 1 Toss-up (Lab vs Lib vs Nat)

    Totals: 19 Labor 13 Liberal 3 Green 1 National 4 Toss-ups

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say for the Toss-ups:
    EV Nat
    SEM Grn
    WM Grn
    WV Nat

    Giving us 19 Labor, 13 Liberal, 5 Green and 3 National… in other words, the Greens have the Balance.

  8. The Liberals aren’t going to fall under 14 LC seats, or 2 per region on average. While they will only win one seat in Northern Metro and probably only one in Western Metro, they will win 3 seats in Western Victoria & Eastern Metro. Possibly also Southern Metro.

    The Greens will go forward in Southern Metro, but at the expense of the ALP. Don’t be surprised to see a LIB 3 ALP 1 GRN 1 result in Southern Metro, with Evan Thornley left standing when the music stops.

  9. I can’t see the Greens getting 5 seats. They’re not the only minor party this time around, so will not be able to harness all the protest vote. I’d say a combination of Greens and/or Family First could get 3 seats, with the most likely being Northern, Southern and Eastern Melbourne.

  10. Howard,
    On what basis are you suggesting that the ALP vote in Southern Metro will be less than 33.4% (2 quotas)? In the 2004 Senate elections, which all would remember as a very bad poll for Labor, the ALP secured 33% of the vote. It’s surely inconceivable that this time Labor won’t do better than the 2004 Senate, particularly given that with five Lower House seats (three marginal) to defend, there will be a concerted effort to maximise the Labor vote. The final seat should be a battle between the Liberals and the Greens.

  11. The Senate vote calculations are seriously wrong in some cases. Consider Southern Metro and South-East Metro. Southern Metro is broadly made up of Melbourne Ports, Kooyong, Higgins and Goldstein, plus some bits of other seats. In all these four the Greens got far more than 11.1% – in MP as high as 18%. No matter how badly we did in the other bits we could not have got down to 11.1

    On the other hand, in SEM you have the reverse. In every seat that falls into SEM we scored well below the 10.1% listed here, in some cases badly so.

    Either Anthony has screwed up or you have miscopied his data. This makes me wonder whether this has happened in other cases, casting doubt on the whole table.

  12. Stephen, Anthony has provided me with a revised set of figures that are closer to what you’re saying.

    Thanks to all those who have pointed errors – those mentioned have been corrected (I’m sure there’s more where they came from).

  13. Stephen, thanks for that info. It sent me back to the originals for the 2004 Senate, which does make Howard’s 3 Liberals, 1 Labor 1 Green for Southern Metro seem plausible. You’re also right that the new region is predominantly Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong and Melbourne Ports. There’s a sizeable chunk of Chisholm and Hotham included, along with a tiny section of Isaacs, but as you suggest, those modifications don’t drastically alter the figures drawn from the “big four”.
    I still think that Labor will do better on Saturday, but my original point is much weaker than I put it in my 12.12 post.

  14. I want to make a prediction too, looks fun!

    Eastern Metro Labor 2 Liberal 3
    Eastern Victoria Labor 2 Liberal 3
    Northern Metro Labor 2 Liberal 2 Greens 1
    Northern Victoria Labor 2 Liberal 2 National 1
    South East Metro Labor 2 Liberal 2 Toss-up 1 (Liberal/Green)
    Southern Metro Labor 1 Liberal 3 Toss-up 1 (Labor/Green)
    Western Metro Labor 3 Liberal 2
    Western Victoria Labor 3 Liberal 2

    Labor 17 Liberal 19 National 1 Greens 1

    Possibly 1 more Liberal, giving 21 (majority) to the conservative side.

    Otherwise either 1 more Labor and 1 more Green or 2 more Greens. Either of those gives balance of power to the Greens.

  15. Howard C, .

    On Southern Metro, I agree. Liberals might just pick up three. But I would say, Labor 2 and Lib 2 with Green knocking off 3rd Lib. Gut instinct is Labor wont poll that low. I think the Greens will get quota here though.

  16. Stephen L, you got 10.47% in the senate in Chisholm, and most of Chisholm (Mt Waverley District and Clayton District) is in South Eastern metro. Maybe Anthony has allocated the Greens senate result of 12.07% in Goldstein to South Eastern metro instead Southern? Other relevant senate figures for the Greens in reps seats within South Eastern are: Bruce: 5.83%, Holt: 4.23%, and Isaacs: 7.11%.

  17. Even the state Liberals wouldn’t be desperate enough to have Krazy Ken back – although since they have disinterred Bernie Finn, who knows?

  18. Eastern Metro Labor 2 Liberal 3 (Outside chance 2 Lib 1 Green)
    Eastern Victoria Labor 2 Liberal 2, National 1
    Northern Metro Labor 2 Liberal 2 Greens 1
    Northern Victoria Labor 2 Liberal 2 National 1
    South East Metro Labor 2 Liberal 2 Toss-up 1 (ALP/Green)
    Southern Metro Labor 2 Liberal 2 Green 1
    Western Metro Labor 3 Liberal 1/2 (Outside chance Power People 1)
    Western Victoria Labor 2 Liberal 2 (Tossup ALP/NP/DLP)

    It’s impossible that the ALP only gets 1 on Southen Metro the have over two quotas (33.34%) on primaries. Greens are set to win this seat.

    Both the Western Metro and Western Victoria will be close for the last seat. If you look at the morgan Poll the ratio of Liberal to National Party is 34 LIB 4% NAT This is higher for teh National party then the ratio used in the 2002 results reasonn most likely is that the 2002 dataset is not complete.

    It would be better is poeple published there predictaon on first preferences to back up their prediction at least we can then put them through the upperhouse.info calculator to verify the results.

  19. I think William published an early breakdown I sent him which had a cross link between south and south Eastern data (if you take the spaces out between the seat names tyhe sort ordeer changes) that was quickly corrected and further refinement was made to teh polling place distribution on the borders when more information and data was made avaiulable)

    below is the senate translation table,.

    Remember that the Liberal Vote was much higher and teh ALP at its lowest.

    I have used the senate vote to reflect on tyhe minopr party support and to profile the electroate in ternms of the parties percenatge of the state vote to each region electorate.

    Data in coma delimited format so uit should open in excell

    RegionID,ProvinceNm,A-CEC,B-DLP,C-ADP,D-LFF,E-CDP,F-HPA,G-APA,H-SA,I-ALP,J-DEM,K-K,L-NCPA,M-RPA,N-GRN,O-ESVP,P-LIB/NP,Q-FF,R-ON,S-S,UG-UG,TOTAL
    ,Party/Electorate formal vote percentage,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
    1,Eastern Metropolitan Region,0.37%,1.59%,0.46%,1.54%,0.40%,0.12%,0.07%,0.11%,32.02%,2.19%,0.10%,0.08%,0.13%,8.32%,0.22%,49.34%,2.22%,0.46%,0.21%,0.06%,100.00%
    2,Eastern Victoria Region,0.38%,1.41%,0.66%,1.80%,0.37%,0.10%,0.07%,0.09%,30.38%,1.81%,0.12%,0.11%,0.12%,7.70%,0.35%,50.82%,2.36%,1.13%,0.15%,0.05%,100.00%
    3,Northern Metropolitan Region,0.66%,2.45%,0.52%,1.51%,0.27%,0.10%,0.09%,0.31%,45.27%,2.02%,0.12%,0.12%,0.16%,14.33%,0.25%,29.68%,1.17%,0.38%,0.55%,0.04%,100.00%
    4,Northern Victoria Region,0.56%,1.68%,0.80%,3.00%,0.41%,0.08%,0.09%,0.13%,27.94%,1.51%,0.12%,0.12%,0.13%,6.04%,0.53%,52.82%,2.44%,1.39%,0.14%,0.06%,100.00%
    5,South Eastern Metropolitan Region,0.53%,2.05%,0.55%,1.69%,0.35%,0.09%,0.08%,0.14%,37.79%,1.96%,0.11%,0.11%,0.15%,8.14%,0.22%,43.27%,2.00%,0.55%,0.18%,0.04%,100.00%
    6,Southern Metropolitan Region,0.37%,1.36%,0.37%,1.40%,0.21%,0.10%,0.09%,0.14%,31.35%,2.36%,0.08%,0.08%,0.15%,12.75%,0.16%,47.18%,1.14%,0.35%,0.30%,0.04%,100.00%
    7,Western Metropolitan Region,0.91%,3.03%,0.61%,1.82%,0.34%,0.10%,0.10%,0.21%,48.27%,1.67%,0.13%,0.14%,0.16%,6.73%,0.24%,33.27%,1.48%,0.58%,0.18%,0.03%,100.00%
    8,Western Victoria Region,0.52%,1.87%,0.67%,1.93%,0.37%,0.09%,0.07%,0.19%,35.50%,1.43%,0.12%,0.12%,0.12%,7.09%,0.31%,46.31%,2.15%,0.85%,0.25%,0.05%,100.00%

  20. To start the ball rolling here is my breakdown estimate

    So we are talking Kilos and not pounds It is based on the latest poll that has ALP 40-41% Lib 36% NP 4% Green 12% Others 7-8%

    (Its a csv file and should open in excess (Happy star gazing ๐Ÿ™‚

    Eastern Metro,
    ,
    PP,1.8%
    DLP,1.5%
    DEM,2.1%
    ALP,36.3%
    FF,2.2%
    LIB,44.8%
    GRN,11.3%
    ,
    ,100.0%
    ,
    Eastern Metro,
    ,
    FF,2.4%
    LIB,34.6%
    PP,1.6%
    ALP,34.5%
    DLP,1.4%
    F,1.0%
    GRN,10.5%
    NP,12.0%
    CDP,0.5%
    CA,1.5%
    ,
    ,100.0%
    ,
    ,
    Northern Metro,
    DLP,1.5%
    DEM,0.8%
    PP,0.9%
    D,0.3%
    GRN,17.5%
    ALP,50.5%
    LIB,27.5%
    FF,1.0%
    ,
    ,100.0%
    ,
    ,
    Northern Victoria,
    GRN,8.2%
    FF,2.5%
    CDP,0.4%
    NP,20.2%
    E,3.2%
    CA,2.0%
    PP,1.0%
    H,1.0%
    DLP,1.7%
    ALP,31.7%
    LIB,28.0%
    ,
    ,100.0%
    ,
    ,
    South East Metro,
    FF,2.0%
    LIB,39.2%
    PP,1.5%
    DEM,1.4%
    E,0.2%
    CDP,0.2%
    GRN,11.1%
    ALP,42.3%
    DLP,2.0%
    ,
    ,100.0%
    ,
    ,
    Southern Metro,
    FF,1.1%
    PP,1.5%
    C,0.1%
    LIB,42.5%
    DEM,1.4%
    DLP,1.3%
    GRN,17.4%
    ALP,34.7%
    ,
    ,100.0%
    ,
    ,
    Westren Mero,
    PP,1.6%
    ALP,53.5%
    LIB,30.2%
    DLP,3.0%
    DEM,1.2%
    FF,1.5%
    GRN,9.1%
    ,
    ,100.0%
    ,
    ,
    Western Victoria,
    GRN,9.7%
    PP,1.2%
    CA,2.0%
    DLP,2.5%
    SA,0.2%
    NP,8.4%
    LIB,33.6%
    FF,3.0%
    ALP,39.3%
    J,0.1%
    ,
    ,100.0%

  21. Peter M. I often wonder about elain ๐Ÿ™‚ I wqould also like to piont out that all my analyis that I that I have publised is based on public information. Infomration I have been given confidentially points to a slighly differnret outcome but that information was lower-house base. The star gazzers are very much concerned about the complacent 3rd term voter. (Its a pity the pollesters did not do a more accurate breakdown of the eight regions. Gary Morgans outcomes was way out in Wetsern metro) Sadly there will be no more polls as of today there is a media black out BUT not on the bloggersphere. Stay tuned for news on innercity late campaign tactics.

  22. To assist in my eastmate I used the following Lib to NP split in teh vote to match the 36% to 4% published by Morgan Polls.

    Region, LIB, NP
    Eastern Victoria Region, 75%, 25%
    Northern Victoria Region, 58%, 42%
    Western Victoria Region, 80%, 2%

  23. bmw.. I agree with your results assessement but you have made a mistake on western Metro you have 6 seats allocated. ALP will definatly get 3 its as real toss up on the fifth. Depneding on People Power Pull they ncan survive the count.. (I have to give them a shot somehwere and this is it as the prreferences favor them ๐Ÿ™‚ There is one poll that counts I have set up my database to monitor the election night stats and will apply the early results to the above the line tickets allocations for analysis. Keeping in mind that we will not be able to calculate the below the line data until data-entry process commence. Hopefully we will get an early trend and get a jump on the VEC. I will also publish an update on teh postal voet states on Friday. Postal vote applications end Thursday night prepolling Friday night.

  24. Too tell t6he triuth I do not think Peopel Power will win Western metro (They have not campiagned hard enough in this region which they should have because it is the one most effected by pokies.) I think Western Metro will go ALP 3 Liberal 2..

  25. Anthony,

    With ALP predicted to get 50.5% (ie. 3 quotas outright) in North Metro how can you conclude to give them only 2 seats?

    The numbers you have there deliver 3 ALP, 1 LIB, 1 GRN with no need for further distribution of preferences.

    However you look at the numbers it would appear to deliver the BoP to the Greens. I can’t see how either the ALP or a conservative consortium will muster 21 seats.

  26. Hmmm.. Melbcity:

    Labor only has 37% last election in Southern Metro region and under 30% for the Senate in 2004. If there’s a swing against Labor – probably – especially in regions to the south and east of Melb then it is feasible/likely that they drop under the 33% threshold for 2 seats. Greens have like 12-15%. So if Labor gets below 33% and Greens get below 16% then FF and so on can flow to Liberal, topping up their 14-15% left over after already achieving 2 quotas (Total Lib vote estimate around 45-47%). So there’s 3 Liberal, 1 Labor and now both Labor and Green are very close to a quota, but who folds first?

    That was my reasoning, but I’m very amateur. I don’t know about the upperhouse.info. Would love you to point out the flaws in what I did above?

    Also, it was late and I was thinking about it before I went to sleep, there should probably be a National in EasternVic. I want to look again at how I did it.

  27. Polly, while some of Chisholm is in SEM, a fair bit of it is in EM (Box Hill) and this part has the higher Green vote. The sections in SEM generally returned less than 10%.

  28. Sorry I dont. beleive that. Northern metro shoud be ALP 3 Lib 1 Grn 1
    I have the Greens winning one seat in Northern, Southern and Eastern Metro

    Southern Metro I have ALP 2 Lib 2 Grn 1

    IO fiond Western Victoria to be of considerable interest. If the ALP surplus falls below 8.5% then the DLP have a chance of collecting the preferences They need to top Labors surplus.

    Most of the election will depend on the location of the swinging vote. The data I am working off is notional distribution based on profileing. In the asence of detailed poloing or a breakdown of the public polling. the ALP can fall below 33% but would still collect preferences which would see it above. i have the ALp in Southern Metro on around 35% of the vote They are pretty safe with two seats as a minimum in every seat but will collect 3 in Northern and Western Metro.

  29. My summary should read

    Region,,ALP,LIB,NP,GRN,DLP
    Eastern Metropolitan,,2,2,0,1,0
    Eastern Victoria,,2,2,1,0,0
    Northern Metropolitan,,3,1,0,1,0
    Northern Victoria,,2,2,1,0,0
    South Eastern Metropolitan,,2,3,0,0,0
    Southern Metropolitan,,2,2,0,1,0
    Western Metropolitan,,3,2,0,0,0
    Western Victoria,,2,2,0,0,1
    Sum,,18,16,2,3,1

    *** Western Victoria fifth spot is the most difficult to call ***. I would love to do more analysis on the Sunday Herald Sun poll but I find it hard to believe and would need to have access to the qualitative data. My analysis does not take into consideration information I have received on ALP polling which indicates localised differences. It is purely notional based on allocation/distribution of the statewide vote as reported in the ACNielsen/Morgan polls. ALP 40.5%, Liberal/NP 40% Greens 12%. and a Split of Lib/NP in the rural seats as indicated above

  30. I don’t think it is likely the DLP will win a seat in Western Vic, but Anthony is right to the extent that it is the most likely win by a party other than Labor, Liberal, National or Green. Quite a bit more likely than any of the fantasies People Power are pushing.

    If they win, it will be an even more damning indictment of above the line voting than Family First’s victory. It would be a result not only of various preference deals, but of the consistent fact that teh DLP’s vote goes up when they are to the left of (or above) the ALP on a ballot, so people get confused and vote for the wrong party.

    I put the chances of it happening at 4% so I’d emphasise its not likely.

  31. I do not see the Greens crossing the line in Western Victoria nor do I subscribe to the view that the DLP are mistaken for the ALP. Too simplistic I am afraid. I also thought the DLP had little chance at first. And yes its a tight window. If the DLP fold early then I think the National Party or the ALP will cross the line first.

    I believe the Greens will get three seats only in the upper-house

    We will see Saturday. All the analysis done to date has been notional and no doubts there will be changes with local variances. It was disappointing that the public pollesters did not provide a breakdown of the upper-house voters intentions. That would have been interesting.

    Anthony

  32. Southern Metro ALP 2 Liberal 2 Greens 1
    South East Metro ALP 3 Liberal 2
    Eastern Metro ALP 2 Liberal 2 Greens 1
    Northern Metro ALP 2 Liberal 2 Greens 1
    Western Metro ALP 3 Liberal 2
    Western Victoria ALP 2 Liberal 2 National 1
    Northern Victoria ALP 2 Liberal 2 National 1
    Eastern Victoria ALP 2 Liberal 2 National 1

    ALP 18 Liberals 16 Nationals 3 Greens 3

  33. My guess

    Region,,ALP,LIB,NP,GRN,DLP
    Eastern Metropolitan,,2,3,0,0,0
    Eastern Victoria,,2,2,1,0,0
    Northern Metropolitan,,3,1,0,1,0
    Northern Victoria,,2,2,1,0,0
    South Eastern Metropolitan,,2,3,0,0,0
    Southern Metropolitan,,2,2,0,1,0
    Western Metropolitan,,3,2,0,0,0
    Western Victoria,,3,2,0,0,0
    Sum,,19,17,2,2,0

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