Upper house latest

From Antony Green in comments comes the shock news that the Liberals have actually come good on their threat to put the Greens behind Labor on their upper house preference tickets in all eight regions. As Antony puts it, "it is a Liberal ticket that would rather see a Labor majority in the Council than the Greens win the balance of power". The tickets do not yet seem to be up on the VEC site as far as I can see, but I gather that will be rectified shortly. For those who have been wondering why I haven’t been making quicker progress on my upper house region summaries, I have abandoned the idea of doing them one by one as blog posts and will post a separate page covering all eight regions, hopefully by tomorrow. In the meantime, Antony’s guide to the upper house regions is now available on the ABC site.

UPDATE: The tickets can be viewed on the ABC site, or at the VEC site by clicking on the party names in the candidate lists.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7 comments on “Upper house latest”

  1. OK, so far I can see a reasonable chance for the Greens in Eastern Metro, People Power and Labor have both got them high on the tickets. The Liberal ticket is a blow, certainly, but I’d say it’s still possible for Greens to manage to get up in 3 or 4 seats. In Northern Metro the Greens get People Power, Labor, Indie and the Dems preferences on top of what is sure to be a close-to-quota result. Northern Metro was the region that swung away from Labor on primaries (due to increase in Green vote) so a correction away from the Greens 2002 result is less likely here. SE Metro is not gone forever with PP, Labor, Dems and an oddly-constructed Indie ticket.

  3. The tickets are up at the VEC website (now) too, click on the parties’ names in the candidates lists. (Does anyone know who those independents are in the Northern Metro group? I’ll need to put them somewhere, or nowhere…)

  4. Hi. I have my model up and running., if anyone wants to provide percentage data for each of the registered tickets I ma happy to process the results (Time permitting). I have done one analysis baseed on teh Percentage of the 2004 senate vote using the registered preference data for the Northern seat. Atd the results showing are with the following percentages are

    Papers group_name
    2.21 A-DLP
    0.94 B-DEM
    0.94 B-DEM
    1.80 C-PP
    0.50 D
    13.38 E-GRN
    42.73 F-ALP
    33.38 G-LIB
    1.25 H-FF

    result 2 ALP, 2 LIB 1 Grn

  5. Whilst I am yet to run my analysis on the other seats I do not think the libs prefernces in the upperhouse will do to much maybe effect the Greens in Western Metro.

    What I need to do is determine the cut-out/cut-in (high/low) percentage analyis for each of the main players. This should indicate the thersholds. Will report soon as possible.

    The question is how did/will the preference in the lower house.

  6. If anyone is interested below is the registerd preference tables (Preferences are fixed length (2) text in ballot paper order).

    Should you discover a data conversion error please contact me on melbcity (AT) gmail (Dot) com

    Tanks

    — CSV data below —

    “ContestName”,”Preferences”
    “Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”010211120304051819202122232425262713141516170607080910”
    “Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”080901022021221516171819030405060710111213142324252627”
    “Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”040521220102031617181920232425262711121314150607080910”
    “Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”060716170809100102030405181920212223242526271112131415”
    “Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”212206071314151617181920010203040508091011122324252627”
    “Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”161711121314151819202122060708091001020304052324252627”
    “Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”060721220809101112131415232425262716171819200102030405”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”0102030405212223242514152930313233080910112627343536373816171819200607121328”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”1112131415010203040524252930313233161718192627343536373806070809102021222328”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”1011121314293031323301023435363738050607080304192021222324252627281516171809”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”2122232425333435363706070102030405101112130809141516171828293031322627192038”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”0809101112242526272806072930313233010203041718343536373819202122231314150516”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”3435363738293031323304050607080910131415160102171819202122232425262728111203”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”3435363738212223242509101112131415262728290607010203040516171819203031323308”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”1112131415060708091026272829303132181920212425343536373801020304052223161733”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”0304050607192021222327282930313233080910112425343536373812131415160102181726”
    “Eastern Victoria Region”,”0515161718222324252606190708092021043132331314383736353403272829301011010212”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”01022122231207030405062425262728171813192015141608091011”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”23240102030405192021220607080910111213141516171825262728”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”23240102030405192021220607080910141516171811121325262728”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”10110304050102060708091213141516282726252417181920212223”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”05060910110708010203041213141516202122232417181925262728”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”23240607081314091011120102030405151617181920212225262728”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”08091011120607252627281314151617010203040522232418192021”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”08091011121314151617182425262728192021222301020304050607”
    “Northern Metropolitan Region”,”05062122231415101112132425262728161718192007080901020304”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”0102033536373833342324252627040506070828291112091030313213141516171819202122”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”0102033536373833342324252627060708091028291112040530313213141516171819202122”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”3637380102030405061718192021242526272807083435222309101129303132331213141516”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”3637380304050601021011121314222324252615162930272807080931323334351718192021”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”3637381112131419200102030405152728293021222526232416171831323334350607080910”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”1011123031323337382021222324010203040513140607080934353625262728291516171819”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”3837360305070927282223242526353433323101022021302904060810111213141516171819”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”3837360305070927282223242526353433323101022021302904060815161718191011121314”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”1011123132333435361516171819030405060713140102080920212238372324252627282930”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”1011121516171837382425262728030405060713140809010229303119202122233233343536”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”3637380809101104051617181920313233343506071213141501020326272829302122232425”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”1718192324252627282930313233080910111206071516131420212201020304053435363738”
    “Northern Victoria Region”,”3637381112131420210607080910222324252615162728293017181931323334350102030405”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”01020304091011121321222324251415050626272816171819200708”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”06070809010203040514151617181920121326272821222324251011”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”23242526181920212201020304050607272808091013141516171112”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”23242526161718192004050102030910272806070811121314152122”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”23242526111213141504050102030910272806070816171819202122”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”08161718261924222503110712150102061304101427282120230509”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”03040506121113141516172324250910010226272818192021220708”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”25262728161718192009100607080405232401020311121314152122”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”16171819222324252606070809102728202111121301020304051415”
    “South Eastern Metropolitan Region”,”05060708131416171809102324251112030426272819201521220102”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”0102032324070809101112132021220405062526272829151617181914”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”2728290102192021222324250304051617180809101112060713141526”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”0406072021010208090510112223241718192928272625120313141516”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”0607081415121301020304051617180910112526272829202122232419”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”2728290405222316171819200102032425260607080910111213141521”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”0405060708202109101112132223240102032526272829141516171819”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”2728290910242516171819200607082122230102030405111213141526”
    “Southern Metropolitan Region”,”2122230607080924252627281011121819201314151617010203040529”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”0102080910111218192021060703040513141516172625242322”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”0607010203040523242526080910111218192021221314151617”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”1516171819202101020304101112131405060708092223242526”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”0903151617111810121314010219202104050607082223242526”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”0405111812131419151617202101020322232425260607080910”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”0405141915161718111213202101020322232425260607080910”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”1213171819202108091011060714151601020304052223242526”
    “Western Metropolitan Region”,”1415091011121316171819202106070822232425260102030405”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”01020304050809282923242526270607151617181920213031323334101112131422”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”13141516170102111204050607080910181924252628293031323334202127222303”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”34333231302627010203111315172928181920212223240410121416050607080925”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”34333231302627010203111315172928080905060718190410121416202122232425”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”30313233341112131401020304052829202115161718190607080910222324252627”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”03040506071314151625262728290102232418192021223031323334080910111217”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”30313233342021131415161718192829010203040506070809101112222324252627”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”28293031322021181913141516173334060701020304050809101112232425262722”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”30313233342627111206070809102829181913141516170102030405212223242520”
    “Western Victoria Region”,”15161718190607080910111213142021272829303132332223242526010203040534”

  7. Hi. I have just done my premilinary distribution based on the Newspoll stats. There is room for fine tuning..

    Results,ALP,LIB,NAT,GRN
    Eastern Metropolitan Region,2,2,,1
    Eastern Victoria Region,2,2,1,
    Northern Metropolitan Region,3,1,,1
    Northern Victoria Region,2,2,1,* DeStanfino Group unknown quantiy
    South Eastern Metropolitan Region,3,2,,
    Southern Metropolitan Region,2,2,,1
    Western Metropolitan Region,4,1,,* Close call on 4th ALP seat
    Western Victoria Region,3,1,1,* Close call on 3rd ALP seat

    Sum,21,13,3,3
    Alt 20,14,3,3 * DeStanfino vote unknown quantity

    I will continue to play with the upper/low data thresholds to determine any possible likely change in outcome and report accordinally.

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