9.42pm. As for my own predictions: going on the current ABC computer verdict, I made five wrong calls all pointing in the same direction: Labor leads in Gaven (3.1 per cent), Mudgeeraba (3.5 per cent), Barron River (6.0 per cent), Bundaberg (0.3 per cent), Toowoomba North (11.1 per cent). My last minute amendments ran 2-1 against me, perhaps 3-0 if Liddy Clark holds on in Clayfield.
9.30pm. I’m going out for a smoke. I’ll come back in 10 minutes and try to take a look at the bigger picture.
9.29pm. ABC site still no good for live audio.
9.24pm. Unless I am mistaken, the ABC computer has moved Currumbin from “LIB retain” to “LIB ahead”. However, Jann Stuckey is more than 2 per cent ahead after a full preference count and is surely home.
9.21pm. Here’s one that’s slipped under the radar: the Nationals are cutting it very fine in Burdekin, so no sophomore surge for Rosemary Menkens who won the seat in 2004 from Labor member Steve Rodgers, who is their candidate again this time. Menkens leads 47.1 per cent to 44.8 per cent on the primary vote: 51.2-48.8 after preferences. She should get home, but the ABC computer has revised it down from “NAT retain” to “NAT ahead”.
9.16pm. According to the ECQ, a Labor lead of 245 primary votes in Bundaberg turns into a 210 vote deficit after preferences. In answer to Geoff R’s query in comments, these are real figures and not projections.
9.09pm. News Radio’s have ended their coverage and the local radio broadcast on the ABC website is just producing a whining sound.
9.05pm. Antony Green in comments says he expects Liz Cunningham to hold on in Gladstone.
9.04pm. Noteworthy swings in otherwise unnoteworthy seats. Big swings to Labor in Townsville: 4.9 per cent in Mundingburra and 9.8 per cent in Thuringowa. Good 4.3 per cent swing to Labor in previously marginal Cairns. 8.8 per cent to the Nationals in Whitsunday, a correction after the Dan van Blarcom situation in 2004. Good 4.2 per cent swing to Labor in Springwood. Very strong showing for One Nation’s last survivor Rosa Lee Long in Tablelands, up 4.2 per cent on the primary vote. Good result for Labor’s Tim Mulherin in Mackay, with a 4.8 per cent swing – commenter Geoff Robinson comments on the distinction with Nationals-held Charters Towers which went 8.4 per cent the other way. 5.0 per cent swing against Peter Beattie in Brisbane Central, the second such swing in a row. 4.8 per cent swing to Labor in Nationals-held Mirani. Very good 5.0 per cent swing to Labor in Ipswich West, given the retirement of sitting member Don Livingstone. Another sophomore surge for Rob Messenger in Burnett: back with a 4.4 per cent swing. Huge win for independent Chris Foley in Maryborough with 70.2 per cent of the primary vote, up 5.3 per cent. Very good 4.0 per cent swing to Christine Smith in Burleigh and 4.6 per cent in Inala, where Anastacia Palaszczuk is replacing father Henry. 4.8 per cent swing against Lawrence Springborg in Southern Downs.
8.53pm. Antony Green in comments: “I’d call Chatsworth (for Labor), but can’t because my manual over-ride command won’t work. Only Brisbane City Hall booth to come”.
8.52pm. Since I last commented on Currumbin, the ABC computer has downgraded it from “Liberal gain” to “Liberal ahead’. Member Jann Stuckey leads 47.8 per cent to 42.8 per cent on the primary vote with 72 per cent counted, so probably final for the night. The Greens’ 9.4 per cent would have to flow extremely solidly to make the difference here – Stuckey looks safe to me.
8.50pm. Reader Andrew Owens, an astute observer of these things, points out the Liz Cunningham is not home and dry in Gladstone, although the ABC computer is calling it for her. She is marginally behind on the primary vote, but there’s also 6.0 per cent for the Nationals candidate and John Wanna says he expect a very disciplined flow to Cunningham.
8.49pm. John Wanna reckons Noosa is still in doubt, but I think he’s operating under the full-preferential voting assumption that getting ahead of Labor should be enough.
8.48pm. Dolly Pratt’s primary vote lead in Nanango has widened since I last commented – from roughly 40-all to 44.0 per cent to 39.7 per cent.
8.45pm. Labor did it easily in Redcliffe to complete the by-election revenge hat-trick. 74 per cent counted, they lead 49.5 per cent to 39.7 per cent.
8.43pm. Still only 39 per cent in from Gaven, but the booths are a pretty representative sample of the seat and Labor has a very big lead: 50.1 per cent to 41.2 per cent on the primary vote.
8.36pm. The ABC computer isn’t yet calling it for Labor in Chatsworth, but they lead by 1.6 per cent on the ABC projection and 1.3 per cent on the progressive preference count, which with 76.6 per cent counted (presumably final for the night) should be enough.
8.33pm. Going on the primary vote, I would have thought Labor would get up in Bundaberg – they lead 45.1 per cent to 43.9 per cent on the primary vote. But the Nationals are in fact slightly ahead on the progressive preference count, which is not lagging too far behind the primary vote count (of which there is 70 per cent counted).
8.30pm. The raw primary vote figures for Labor in Clayfield do not look at all good: 67.3 per cent counted, they trail 38.6 per cent to 46.8 per cent. But quite a few preferences have been counted and they only trail 5475 to 5366.
8.29pm. Beattie’s speech was a little on the brief side.
8.28pm. For what it’s worth, the Greens did not direct preferences to Labor in Robina.
8.26pm. Beattie claiming victory.
8.26pm. 61.4 per cent in Robina and it’s very close indeed. New Liberal candidate Ray Stevens has 46.9 per cent to Labor’s 44.5 per cent, which means its up to the Greens’ 8.5 per cent on preferences.
8.23pm. My first good look at Gympie. 54.1 per cent counted. Only 7.4 per cent for Elisa Roberts. Huge lead for the Nationals on the primary vote: 49.0 per cent, daylight second, ex-Labor independent Rae Gate third on 13.1 per cent. Not sure why this should be such a surprise.
8.22pm. John Wanna reckons Indooroopilly is still doubtful, but I do believe Labor have held it.
8.20pm. Still only 35.0 per cent counted in Noosa. Cate Molloy has taken second place, but she trails Liberal on the primary vote 36.7 per cent to 25.6 per cent. Labor preferences would have to flow very heavily to Molloy to get her ahead – it’s technically possible that there will indeed be unusual preference behaviour in this seat.
8.18pm. Let’s take those one at a time. A clear Liberal win in Kawana with a 7.5 per cent swing. As anticipated, there was a swing to the Liberals across the Sunshine Coast.
8.16pm. The ABC projections in brief: Libs gain Kawana and Noosa. Nats gain Gympie. Libs ahead in Robina and Clayfield. Labor ahead in Bundaberg and Chatsworth. Nats ahead in Lockyer. Labor gains Gaven and Redcliffe.
8.13pm. A late surprise in Lockyer – the Nationals are only ahead 1.1 per cent after 44 per cent counted, based on Antony Green’s preference estimate.
8.10pm. Poor old Lawrence is reduced to once again claiming that they have cut margins in important places.
8.03pm. Lawrence Springborg conceding defeat already.
8.01pm. Unexpectedly strong Labor win in Keppel – 6.0 per cent swing with 59 per cent counted.
7.59pm. Still only 36 per cent counted in Clayfield: after Antony Green’s preference estimate, the Liberals lead 1.3 per cent.
7.57pm. Little cheer goes up in the tally room as the ABC Radio presenter declared Caltabiano’s defeat. It may have been unrelated though. Perhaps we could ask Graham Young and Mark Bahnisch.
7.56pm. 2.6 per cent swing to Labor in Toowoomba North after 30 per cent counted. I didn’t have much luck calling to Toowoomba seats last time either.
7.54pm. Sorry, called that wrong. Big swing to LABOR in Robina, consistent with the Quinn effect. He’s only 1.2 per cent ahead.
7.53pm. Caltabiano gone in Chatsworth. Big swing to the Liberals in Robina, contrary to expectations – elsewhere commentators are talking about the “Bob Quinn effect” damaging the Coalition on the Gold Coast.
7.52pm. No swing at all in Aspley, a good win for Labor member Bonny Barry.
7.51pm. A swing of a few per cent to Labor in all Cairns seats, including the supposedly endangered Mulgrave.
7.50pm. A big 8.8 per cent swing against Labor in Whitsunday, but this is a correction after the Dan van Blarcom affair at the 2004 election. Not enough to cost Labor the seat.
7.49pm. Labor 1.3 per cent ahead in Cleveland with 40 per cent – they would be doing very badly to lose from there.
7.48pm. ABC has a 4.4 per cent swing to Labor in Barron River, an outstanding result.
7.47pm. The ABC computer says 61 Labor seats, which sounds a little high. We can say this much: Labor has had a very good win.
7.44pm. The ABC tells us both candidates in Nanango are on roughly 40 per cent. Progressive count after preferences has Dolly Pratt 4.1 per cent ahead so unless there’s some preference quirk here, she should hold. Indooroopilly being called for Labor.
7.43pm. 20.9 per cent counted in Noosa and the ABC has it as a Liberal gain, as I expected. Cate Molloy and Labor have about a quarter of the vote each and little change on the primary vote from 2004.
7.41pm. ABC gives Labor a 1.8 per cent lead in Indooroopilly with 57 per cent counted, which should be enough.
7.40pm. Elisa Roberts discussing the result on ABC Radio. Sounds like an honest Aussie sheila.
7.39pm. Santoro talking up Whitsunday, but he may be grasping at straws from early figures.
7.38pm. Very tight in Bundaberg, Labor slightly ahead.
7.36pm. If I hear right, John Mickel is saying Labor are a big show of beating independent Liz Cunningham in Gladstone, but his figures seem to be lagging far behind the ABC which has it as Independent retain.
7.35pm. Not clear to me why the ABC computer has Chatsworth as an ALP gain – the booth results are only slightly different from the by-election, and I would have thought it would have been very close.
7.33pm. ABC computer now has Clayfield as Liberal ahead.
7.28pm. Labor apparently home in Redcliffe.
7.21pm. ABC computer now has Chatsworth as an ALP gain. More on that shortly. Very early figures for Mudgeeraba but Labor apparently holding up.
7.20pm. ABC computer has Gaven as a Labor gain, but from only 6.3 per cent of the vote.
7.18pm. None of the Nanango booths are from Kingaroy, which you would expect to be big on the Bjelke-Petersen brand name. Kawana obviously lost to Labor.
7.17pm. ABC computer tipping Nanango for John Bjelke-Petersen.
7.16pm. Only 7.3 per cent counted, but a very close outcome looms in Indooroopilly.
7.15pm. Labor primary vote up in Cairns and holding in Hervey Bay, and “encouraging news” on Redcliffe.
7.15pm. A lot of Labor crowing already on ABC Radio.
7.14pm. The ABC computer has retracted its call of Labor holding Clayfield.
7.13pm. Liberals ahead in Cleveland.
7.12pm. There are four booths in from Chatsworth: in each case both parties’ minor votes are up very slightly on the by-election.
7.09pm. Gympie looking good for the Nationals, as I always expected.
7.07pm. Reader Marcus notes that the ABC computer’s Chatsworth call comes despite a primary vote of 54-39 in Labor’s favour. A lot of talk on the radio about this being from the Belmont booths.
7.02pm. Another Green machine news flash: Chatsworth called for the Liberals. Broadwater for Labor.
7.00pm. News flash: Antony Green’s computer calls Clayfield, Keppel and Pumicestone for Labor. More evidence of the anticipated swing to the Liberals on the Sunshine Coast courtesy of Caloundra.
6.59pm. Still only one booth in from Nanango.
6.56pm. Antony Green’s computer calls Currumbin for the Liberals.
6.54pm. Santo Santoro reports a huge swing to the Liberals in Kawana. This was Labor has been thought very unlikely to retain, regardless of what else happens.
6.51pm. Labor reportedly ahead in Chatsworth, although there’s only one booth up: Labor’s primary vote there is similar to 2004, which is a very good sign for them. The Nationals have picked up a big swing in Charters Towers, so things can’t be that calamitous for them.
6.49pm. John Mickel says scruitineers report small swings to Labor in Whitsunday; Labor’s primary vote “holding” in Toowoomba North. On early figures, Kawana falling to Liberal; Labor just in front in Clayfield; line-ball in Indooroopilly.
6.46pm. The Mulgrave results are an real eye-opener. There are big lifts in the Labor vote both in the good Labor booth of Innisfail and the bad one of Miriwinni.
6.43pm. News flash: Antony Green’s calculations on the ABC site call Mulgrave for Labor.
6.42pm. John Mickel on the ABC says there is a big swing to Labor in one booth in Toowoomba North. Still too early to read much in to any of this, but the trend of an anti-Nationals swing in small booths is worth keeping an eye on.
6.42pm. ABC Radio says a 2.7 per cent against Rob Messenger in Burnett, but the ABC website says for.
6.40pm. On the other hand, a 6.4 per cent swing to the Nationals in Whitsunday. The booths here are the touristy ones – Hamilton Island and Hayman Island. Worth noting that this was a disaster zone for the Nationals last time due to their candidate.
6.38pm. The ABC results show an interesting early pattern: swings to Labor in Nationals seats. In each case it’s a very small number, which means these will be naturally inclining Nationals booths in rural areas.
6.35pm. One booth in Broadwater shows a big swing to Labor.
6.34pm. The ABC Radio presenters are getting excited about the first tiny booth in from Nanango, which has a strong showing for John Bjelke-Petersen.
6.07pm. I said live blogging would start at 6pm, so here I am, although I won’t have much to say for about half an hour. Those of you with no idea can acquire one by reading the list of key seats directly below, or the similar outline at Currumbin2Cook.The latter site is busting my live election blogging monopoly this evening, with Graham Young and Mark Bahnisch reporting live from the tally room. Newcomers to the magic of the internet are advised that they can have both open and the same time and effortlessly switch between the two.
Must be suburban sprawl in Lockyer?
Really? South Bris is still ALP-LIB on the ABC website. If so that’s a big result considering the Libs general success across the state. Let me say too that it’s interesting that the QLD greens vote is higher than that in WA, SA and NT. NOT what one would expect!
Yeah “final for the night” figures in South Bris on ECQ’s website show ALP-LIB. The Greens did beat the Libs at a number of booths – most notably the West End (33%!!) and South Brisbane bits. The Green vote fell in Mount Coot-tha, their notable result from 2004.
Ah, and there’s a clincher in Beattie’s speech: he’s just claimed that IR was a sleeper factor and got a round of applause from parts of the tally room. This probably was a factor in holding the protest vote at bay.
With the Green vote, you have to factor in the amount which is a protest vote against a government that has been around longer than WA and SA govts.
I’d call Chatsworth, but can’t because my manual over-ride command won’t work. Only Brisbane City Hall booth to come.
That’s true about the protest – in the North Bris seat of Sandgate, one of the few contested by Family First, the Greens lost an amount roughly equal to FF’s swing, possibly because the 2004 result was inflated by a protest vote unhappy with both major parties. The vote for the Greens in the FF-contested seats, at any rate, is more likely to be the ‘real’ Green vote from now. There is always a certain amount of protest in the Greens vote, of coures given their roots in activism, but I think they’re translating out of that. Interesting article in Sydney Herald today that mentions that, actually.
I think voter psychology comes into the Green vote in different places with different systems. Queensland, being a one-house state using optional 2PP, makes the Green vote a protest vote – note that the Greens aren’t even *nearly* as strong federally in Queensland. WA and SA have the option of voting one way in the lower house and another in the upper, and again, there’s no chance they can win in the lower house. In Tasmania and ACT where a proportional system exists allowing the Greens to win lower house seats, those who want to vote Green but would in other systems see it as a “wasted vote” do so, gaining them actual seats – and to some extent there is an incumbency factor as well.
Cunningham is 471 ahead after a preference count in Gladstone. She should win on that.
Not too sure about Noosa. One would expect a high precentage of Green voters to have preferenced Cate Molloy that would push the ALP candidate into 3rd. However, As I am not used to OPV, I am really a bit blind on the topic.
“The Green vote fell in Mount Coot-tha,”
Oh yerr – from 23.55% to 21.70% that’s a disaster innit.
Is “clutching at straws” a sport in Qld?
Hehe, although I have to admit that as a Green myself it is always a bit of a downer when one of the few seats we do well in goes backwards – the general trend is up, so I succumb often to wild optimism for my party, but every now and then you get a Mt Coot-tha or a Tasmania 2006. Also I think that often any fall by the Greens is exaggerated slightly in importance by dint of the ‘is this the Green’s peak’ speculation. It’s not, by the way, just a momentary stumble 🙂
Recent Green votes in Qld (and Brisbane City Council):
Today’s Qld State election: 7.99% (138,494 votes) (pre-poll, postal votes etc will not be included in the number of votes so this might go up by 5-10 thousand)
Federal Election 2004 Lower House: 5.06%
Federal Election 2004 Senate: 5.40% (122,393 votes)
Brisbane City Council 2004 Mayoralty: 10.1% (obviously, Brisbane only – 52,995 votes)
Brisbane City Council 2004 Councillors: 8.14%
Qld State Election 2004: 6.76% (145,522 votes) (Total votes INCLUDING pre-poll, postal etc)
The 2004 results are fairly valid, as they were only about 6 months apart – the Greens had 23, 000 State votes that did not go to them Federally.
No matter how you Tories (and that includes the AnotherLiberalParty) spin it, a twenty % increase in the vote for The Greens is not to be sneezed at.
Sorry, I was wrong about Noosa. I should pay more attention.
Ipswich West: the retiring MP not a great asset, his margin over ONP in 2001 was poor compared to other 2001 Labor seats regained from ONP. On Bundaberg: why does ABC have Labor ahead, is this based on the non-local votes in 2004?
South Brisbane euphoria was a bit misplaced but the point is made.
But with S. Bris, there are still absent votes which were better for the Greens than the Libs (on absolute terms) and Labor (on proportional terms) in 2004 that remain to be counted.
Most likely not enough to get in front of the Liberals, but enough to be in contention for a credible 2PP place in 2010 (unfortunately behind an ALP candidate on over 50%, for now at least) like Brunswick or Northcote in Melbourne.
Blair, the Greens did not allocate preferences in Noosa – see here for the candidate page and how to vote card.
I understand the Greens are trying to show the ALP that they have clout by doing this.
Also, the proposed Traveston Dam on the Mary River is angering a lot of Green voters in the Noosa area, which means that Green voters might be in the mood to NOT preference the ALP.
Damn! Molloy was not the ALP candidate, he realises, just after posting. However, the Greens still did not preference her.
It was the ABC projection in Bundaberg I was inquiring about not the ECQ final count of preferences. The preferences from the independent have put Labor behind, but will he poll as well in the non-local vote, will his preferences flow the same way? Only time will tell.
Yep, Bundaberg will go right down to the wire.
Interesting. Green voters tend to be somewhat more open-minded about following cards than others which explains why Molloy made up some ground (but not enough to win).
In Kawana it looks as though the ONP voters have shown their true colours and voted for the Libs.
Bundy is looking pretty rum. Where’s Macca directing his prefs? Green prefs are likely to remain tight here being embattled minority and all.
That’s right Blair…there’s an article on Mumble that discusses this further…including the implications for Green candidates both in optional preferential and compulsory pref elections.
G’day all!
So much for my prediction Beattie would win 53 seats at best.
Yes, I’m a little puzzled too the ABC is predicting a Labor win in Bundaberg when the Nationals have a 2PP lead.
Labor holding Mudgeeraba and Indoorapilly – surprises of the night.
Obviously hard working members a factor in those and other seats.
Probably about 6000 votes to come in Bundaberg. Overall looks like 1993 federal all over, hopefully Labor will learn from this. Maybe if Beazley wins he can appoint Beattie to something.
The ECQ is giving Bundaberg to the Nats. What do you know that they don’t?
Another surprise: Labor holding Barron River.
And I doubt anyone predicted Gaven would be reclaimed by Beattie’s mob.
If Dempsey wins Bundaberg he will be the first conservative to hold the seat since 1896.
Obviously hard working members a factor in those and other seats.
It also has something to do with that old political truism The worst ALP gov’t is always better than the best Tory one
That’s right Blair…there’s an article on Mumble that discusses this further…including the implications for Green candidates both in optional preferential and compulsory pref elections. – except that he’s off his head.
Not sure what happened to New Ltd’s prediction of a collpase in the Green vote. There are pretty solid swings throughout most of the southeast, and South Brisbane continues to improve as the Greens best future prospect.
… and the other thing not discussed here is that when people do give preferences they love to put Greens second, which means in a two party preferred contest, the Greens will do well from all sides.
Albert, what Mumble is saying about the preference behaviour of Green voters sounds pretty on-the-ball to me.
What do you disagree with?
Just got back from the city night out and a bit of an anti-climax really… I was expecting more down to the wire contests. One thing to look at [discussed above] is the arrival of Family First to the scene. Although I haven’t had a time to look at all the electorates, they did pretty well in Keppel getting 9.2% in primaries. Was there any reason for the high FFP vote here? The next highest vote I saw for FFP was in the mid 7% for a seat. This could be interesting to watch in Tassie come around late 2009/early2010 to see if FFP establishes themselves and perhaps deprive the Greens of votes and maybe a seat or two and help the Liberals gain?
In Keppel it looks as though Family Fist picked up the One Nation and drooling Nat vote.
P-O – Well son it’ll soon be Sunday and you can go off and bother God to see if she will grant you your wish. Meanwhile those with their feet firmly on the ground will observe that in those seats contested by both The Greens and FFP, The Greens outpolled FFP in 65% of them.
It should be noted that THe Greens have a policy that they will contest as many seats as possible whereas FFP (to date) cherry pick.
… and the other thing not discussed here is that when people do give preferences they love to put Greens second, which means in a two party preferred contest, the Greens will do well from all sides.
I had to read this seven times before I understood what was being said. Inbound second prefs are no interest to minor parties. They are usually eliminated before the second prefs are counted. Minor parties are only concerned with where their second prefs flow anhd how tight they are to the HTV directions.
The fact is that overall The Greens have done very well in this election increasing their primary vote by nearly 20% and in some areas the FFP have done quite well too.
In Qld with its optional pref system it is unlikely that many dedicated major party voters will have indicated any second prefs.
For the record Albert… I’m not a FFP voter. 😛 far from it… just was posing an interesting comment from what I’ve read.
In Qld with its optional pref system it is unlikely that many dedicated major party voters will have indicated any second prefs.
And in any event to arrve at a TPP figure, only the second prefs of the third placed and lower placed candidates are counted. Thus the percentages recorded for any party’s candidate not finishing either first or second are not affected by any distribution of preferences.
P_O,
I’m not a FFP voter. – that’s what even the FFP booth workers say.
Just like my dear old Dad used to say about the Weimar Republic, you could never find anyone who would admit to voting for the NSDAP.
Albert: There’s only a handful of seats where major party prefs would even matter – only the first is counted if it’s a one-two contest, which most seats are.
In an election where One Nation didn’t run and Family First in many seats didn’t pick up the balance (their vote was in many cases raided straight from the Coalition primary), I’m amazed the Greens didn’t pick up more, especially when Labor are on the nose over issues which I’d imagine the Greens could own, like the failure of damming as a philosophy to solve Queensland’s water woes. Rather than making bizarre claims like “20% increase” (in part due to running in 3 more seats than last time), I’d be emphasising the results in Gympie and Noosa, very conservative electorates where the Greens did significantly increase their showing.
As for “clutching at straws” – I’m not even a Queenslander, and I’m probably best thought of as a Whitlamite Labor type, but Labor stopped representing the centre-left a long time ago. I would be more comfortable with the Greens if they were a true centre-left party like Canada’s NDP, however, in the present field we have, they’re the best on offer IMO.
(Correction: shoiuld be “One Nation didn’t run in all but 4 seats” – apologies 🙂 Same point applies anyway.)
AO
I wasn’t talking about major party prefs being dstributed I was trying to make the point that “notional” distribution of preferences to give the “on the night” TPP result does not affect the % indicated to candidates whose preferences are notionally distributed ie. the second prefs of the two highest placed candidates are not distributed “on the night” (or ever for that matter).
I can’t see how a minor party with limited resources can be accused of not doing well when the overall vote increased by 20% – although if you can show me that running in three additional seats would account for the increased vote in absolute numbers I would concede the point.
Nobody expected THe Greens to perform so well. The Murdoch rags ran a derogatory campaign with Sean Parnell in the Oz even going so far as to effectively write the party’s obit.
Then there is debate over whether Beattie’s scare campaign was effective persuading ALP voters to stay loyal and not waver.
I think the problem you’re going to have convincing anyone Albert that this is a fantastic victory is that they won no seats, didn’t even come second in any, and so are a glorified protest vote. I mean sure they get a huge vote in west end, mount nebo, mount coot-tha, kuranda, port douglas, mission beach… what I’d ask you is how many ordinary queenslanders live in these places? they’re mostly retirees or refugees from down south, which we keep getting told are arriving at 1500 per week. in some cases now that ONP’s no longer around they’re the only protest vote in town. THAT’S why the vote is growing – and by 1.2% not 20%
sorry to add to what I was saying you look in any other state and it’s the same type of places that give greens the vote. the question in most voters minds and certainly mine yesterday was what do they stand for other than the environment? I didn’t vote for the greens because on reading their website it is very clear that they are anti-business, and as an IT business operator I recognised I was safer with beattie in charge, even though I think his performance on other issues has been woeful and he has more spin than a launderette full of dryers. but he has been good at one thing – promotion of the state.
The Greens vote includes the protest vote – the point about seats where FF was also running is on the money. The Greens campaign was much less profiled in the media this time round. A lot of Labor campaign strategists in the tally room tonight agreed with me that the large Greens vote in Brisbane and in parts of the regions was coming from disillusioned Labor voters on one hand and returning via preferences, but a significant (though smaller) component of it was coming from Liberals or swinging voters who would have liked to have voted against Beattie but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the Opposition. That in fact is the key to the entire result.
Obviously there is a bigger Greens vote – which is actually a positive vote for the Greens in some inner Brisbane seats like South Brisbane, Brisbane Central and Mt Cootha. But I wouldn’t be getting too excited about some of the other votes if I were the Qld Greens.
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