A poll of 749 voters in yesterday’s Gold Coast Bulletin shows the Liberals struggling to hold two of their three Gold Coast seats: Currumbin, where Labor is reportedly becoming increasingly hopeful, and Robina, which is being vacated by ousted Liberal leader Bob Quinn. However, the online article says only that the Liberals hold primary vote leads of 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively – presumably the print edition has more.
There’s a moral to this story. Don’t shaft popular sitting members. Australian voters are becoming increasingly disillusioned with party’s who put thier own factional interests before unity, strong leadership and policy development. Shafting Quinn was a ridiculous move so close to the election (which they knew was in the wind). If a strong independent had run in Robina it would have been a Pittwater-style loss. As it is the Liberals will probably hold it with a slightly reduced majority.
I’m not sure why Currumbin wasn’t a big question mark for the Liberals from the beginning of this election. It was won on a hugely inflated swing in 2004 in what was essentially by-election held within an election. If previous member Merri Rose had suffered the average anti-Labor swing in 2004 her current margin would have been still be in double figures today. Take out the Merri Rose and Tungan factors and we actually have a huge Labor margin to overcome. Factor in Jann Stuckey’s incumbancy and I reckon we could estimate that Labor could still take this seat by 5-6%.
Liberals, you’re stuffed.
I wouldn’t be so sure. If, as is the impression I get, that Stuckey is a popular incumbent, the fact that the ALP is nominating an apparent party hack against her could well swing it in her favour.
Was it really the 2004 swing to the Liberals that was ‘hugely inflated’ or was it simply that the Labor majority itself was inflated after the 2001 landslide?
To me, it seems almost impossible to determine the true margin of most of these Brisbane and Gold Coast seats due to the enormous swing in 2001, most of which stuck in 2004.
Rebecca, you describe the ALP Candidate for Currumbin as a ‘party hack’. Since when was a local high school English teacher a “hack”?
Regardless of the quality of the candidates, I’m rather inclined to agree with Dave. Remember the ALP did hold Currumbin for most of the nineties, even in 1995. It’s entirely plausible that the seats in this part of the Gold Coast could switch around – that the Liberals take Mudgeeraba while Labor regain Currumbin.