Super Saturday live

11.28pm. Okay, one last thing – Geoff Lambert notes in comments that Labor’s surplus over the fourth quota for the upper house is going steadily down, which suggests it will be their preferences that decide the final spot. If so, it will go to the Greens rather than the third No Pokies candidate. Keep your eye on the comments thread, where Geoff will hopefully keep you posted on further developments.

11.26pm. That will do for me for now, although I might come back later to crunch some Tasmanian numbers. I believe the SEO has wrapped things up for the evening – on present indications, it seems my election guide called all seats correctly except for the independent victories in Mount Gambier (certain) and Mitchell (likely). Not a bad effort, if I do say so myself. No doubt that scoundrel Charles Richardson at Crikey (the only other person silly enough to publish seat-by-seat predictions, to my knowledge) went one better, but I cannot say because my Crikey email mysteriously failed to arrive on Friday.

10.58pm. Graham Gunn is now behind in Stuart by 1.0 per cent, on the reckoning of both the SEO and Antony Green. I’m guessing that the Port Augusta booths followed the broader trend more closely than the small rural and remote booths that were coming in earlier.

10.54pm. Antony Green has Liberal leading by 1.4 per cent in Unley, compared with 0.5 per cent at the SEO.

10.48pm. Finally, some new figures for Mitchell – the count is now up to 73.1 per cent after being stuck on 50.4 per cent for about an hour. The figures haven’t changed much – Kris Hanna is on 25.8 per cent compared with 20.8 per cent for the Liberals, with Labor on 40.7 per cent. Wisely, the SEO has scrubbed its old Labor versus Liberal 2PP figure, but it hasn’t replaced it with anything. Those still look like winning figures for Hanna to me. Antony Green’s computer still has "ALP ahead" on the basis of out-of-date figures. An ABC news report reveals Labor’s candidate sounds less than confident.

10.42pm. I’m still getting a seat for the Greens, and so are the default entries at Upperhouse.Info which have been updated on the basis on recent figures. Geoff is saying almost all Democrats preferences will need to go to the Greens if they are to stay against Labor’s fifth candidate and No Pokies’ third. As useful as the Upperhouse.Info calculator is, it suffers a weakness in that it assumes all Democrats votes will do so. In fact, the total number of candidates is much smaller than at the 2002 election, which means there will be more votes going below the line this time. I would think that more below-the-line Democrats voters would favour No Pokies than Labor – enough to close the narrow existing gap of 0.56 to 0.53, assuming most of them don’t favour the Greens. That third No Pokies candidate is not out of the hunt yet.

10.30pm. Geoff Lambert, who is way better with numbers than I am, questions my earlier calculation that the Greens are up for the eleventh upper house seat. Time for me to do another calculation I think.

10.20pm. I made a good call with my last-minute decision to provide live commentary. I believe we’ve broken a record for most comments on a Poll Bludger discussion thread.

10.12pm. SA: The SEO has the Liberal lead in Unley at only 0.5 per cent on 2PP. Antony Green’s computer, which is rarely wrong from 72.8 per cent of the vote, still has it down as Liberal retain. But could it be that it’s underestimating the strength of preferences to Labor? Does the SEO have actual rather than notional preference figures?

10.06pm. Tasmania: Interesting to hear the victory and concession speeches. Where these are usually given to the party faithful, in Tasmania they are conducted before a crowd of all comers at Wrest Point Casino, and hoots and jeers can be heard amid the amidst the applause.

9.57pm. SA: Things are strangely quiet on the Mitchell front, as far as News Radio and the SEO go. Does anyone know anything? Graham Gunn’s lead in Stuart has weakend to 0.7 per cent on 2pp.

9.44pm. SA: Second-hand reports say the ABC computer has upper house figures with more than 60 per cent counted, and the No Pokies vote has more than held up.

9.37pm. SA: I’ve done my own calculations on the upper house so the percentages make sense. Only two No Pokies now; Labor four; Liberal three; Family First one; Greens take the seat that went missing from No Pokies.

9.28pm. SA: About 18 per cent counted in the upper house – bizarrely, the SEO’s percentage figures add up to more than 100. I have tried plugging them into the Upperhouse.Info calculator regardless and I get THREE seats for No Pokies, who are on a spectacular 19.3 per cent, only three for the Liberals, four for Labor, one for Family First.

9.20pm. SA: Bob Such’s excellent performance in Fisher has been called to my attention. He’s on 49.4 per cent of the vote and the Liberals are in third place, and in no danger of closing the gap over Labor. The SEO’s 2PP figure is Such versus Liberal – understandable, but wrong.

9.17pm. SA: The SEO 2PP figures have added a bit more fat to Graham Gunn’s lead, now on 1.3 per cent. He actually trails 44.4 per cent to 46.6 per cent on the primary vote, but is obviously doing well out of preferences from Family First’s 4.0 per cent (or perhaps, is expected to do well – not sure if the preferences are actual or notional).

9.13pm. SA: They’re about to interview Rory McEwen on ABC Television. Dean Jaensch is pretty much calling Mount Gambier for him.

9.11pm. Tasmania: Another commenter notes that the Labor vote in Bass is boosted by Michelle O’Byrne’s left-wing support base, and that many of these votes will leak to the Greens. So Kim Booth’s position might be brighter than it appears at first glance.

9.09pm. SA: I misunderstood David Walsh’s earlier point. The significance of the high Greens vote in Kavel is not that they will have Family First last behind Liberal, but that they will feed preferences to Labor that will deprive Playford of second place.

9.07pm. SA: Dean Jaensch on ABC Television via News Radio notes a remarkably good overall performance for Family First and the Australian Democrats down by two-thirds.

9.05pm. SA: Hold the front page – a possible shock in Mitchell. Thanks for commenters for pointing it out, I haven’t heard it mentioned elsewhere. Independent incumbent Kris Hanna holds second place over the Liberals by 25.5 per cent to 21.0 per cent, with Labor on 40.7 per cent. Those look like winning figures for Hanna for me, unless Family First (5.1 per cent) and Dignity for Disabled (2.1 per cent) run very heavily against Hanna.

9.01pm. SA: The SEO 2PP from Mount Gambier is making more sense now. McEwen leads the Libs 56.1-43.9 – only 36.8 per cent counted, but it probably still answers my earlier question.

8.59pm. Both: A summary of remaining points of interest. Will Labor win a third seat from the Greens in Bass? Will the Liberals win one from Labor in Franklin? Will Graham Gunn hold Stuart for the Liberals against all odds? Will independent Rory McEwen hold Mount Gambier? What have I missed?

8.52pm. Tasmania: Haven’t heard much about Denison. Apparently Michael Hodgman will win the only seat certain to go to the Liberals. Peg Putt to be returned but her running mate Cassy O’Connor has not pulled a rabbit out of the hat, but the big Greens surplus will presumbly get a third candidate up at the expense of the Liberals’ second.

8.51pm. Tasmania: Someone on ABC Radio, I think Nick McKim, says he’s still confident Kim Booth will hold his seat in Bass.

8.49pm. SA: Maybe those SEO 2PP figures from Kavel were right after all – David Walsh notes in comments that the Greens are on a substantial 9 per cent in Kavel, and these are presumably running hard against Family First.

8.44pm. SA: I’ve been quieter lately because News Radio has been giving us the second half of a call-of-the-board from ABC Radio in Adelaide. Here we go: Labor swing of 5.1 per cent in Morphett. Antony Green says Rory McEwen is likely to retain Mount Gambier (damn – my only wrong call, but the look of it). Labor swing of almost 10 per cent in their safe seat of Napier. Swing to Labor of 12.9 per cent in the formerly Liberal seat of Newland. Labor swing of about 5 per cent in Norwood. Swing of 14.8 per cent in the safe Labor seat of Playford. Swing of only 4.0 per cent in safe Labor Port Adelaide. Mike Rann’s seat of Ramsay swings 7.1 per cent. Reynell, formerly not that safe, swings 14.0 per cent to Labor. Safe Liberal Barossa Valley seat of Schubert swings 7.1 per cent, with Labor’s primary vote up about 14 per cent. A surprise against the trend in Stuart, with Antony’s computer showing Liberal mega-veteran Graham Gunn holding his seat from an initial margin of barely 2 per cent (if so, another wrong call). It’s being noted that a solid One Nation vote from last time has disappeared. Safe Labor Taylor swings 8 per cent. Safe Labor Torrens swings 13.8 per cent. Liberal to hold Unley. Waite stays with the Liberals despite a swing of 8 per cent. Safe Labor West Torrens swings yet further. Marginal Labor Wright swings heavily to Labor.

8.42pm. Tasmania. Charles Richardson corrects me on Bass. It seems Labor are winning that seat from the Greens, not the Libs. The Greens will be down to two seats if so.

8.34pm. SA: Not sure how seriously to take these 2PP figures from the SEO (neither is one of the commenters), but Labor’s margin in the formerly Liberal seat of Light is 14.1 per cent.

8.27pm. While in SA, the star female performer has been Chloe Fox, who has won Bright with a swing of nearly 15 per cent.

8.25pm. Tasmania: At last – I can hear Antony Green on News Radio (they’re flitting around from radio to television coverage, and Antony’s on the latter). It indeed looks like the Liberals might drop a seat to Labor in Bass. He seems to be backing Labor to win a seat off the Liberals in Bass and is not writing off their third candidate in Franklin. The star of the evening looks to be Michelle O’Byrne, who might just end up being responsible for an increased Labor majority despite an overall 2 per cent drop on the primary vote and a 4 per cent increase for the Liberals. Christine Milne sounds very unhappy about the Exclusive Brethren business.

8.22pm. SA: Commenter Scott says Kevin Foley has said Labor leads every booth in the marginal Liberal seat of Morialta on the primary vote. An extraordinary result – Labor had put it about earlier in the campaign that they weren’t doing so well there.

8.19pm. SA: You may recall talk of Tom Playford, Family First candidate and son of the legendary Liberal Premier, might win the seat of Kavel. The Liberals are on 47.0 per cent, so it’s not likely, but he is at least looking good to clear the first hurdle as he leads Labor 20.0 per cent to 19.6 per cent. I’m not sure about these SEO 2PP figures – they have the Liberals leading Playford 64.4-35.6. Still, there’s only 11.2 per cent counted and maybe they’re factoring in booth variations. Yet more talk of extrordinary results for Nick Xenophon in the upper house.

8.17pm. SA: Nationals candidate Kym McHugh has faded in Finniss and now trails Labor 20.6 per cent to 29.4. The SEO 2PP has McHugh ahead of Liberal 1.9 per cent, but it’s looking like the final contest will in fact be between Liberal and Labor, with McHugh’s preferences giving it to the Libs.

8.15pm. SA: The SEO has Labor ahead just 50.1-49.9 on 2PP in Stuart.

8.13pm. SA: Does anyone know anything about Mount Gambier? The SEO has the Liberals leading Rory McEwen 55.1-44.9 on 2CP, but that’s not my reading from the primary vote with McEwen well ahead of Labor and only slightly behind the Liberals.

8.11pm. SA: First, very small figures from the upper house reportedly show an extraordinarily high vote for Nick Xenophon and the Liberals, in the words of Chris Schacht, possibly struggling for a fourth seat – an unprecedent failure if correct.

8.10pm. Tasmania: Big figures now up in Franklin, with nearly 70 per cent counted. Labor’s primary vote is now down to 47.0 per cent while the Liberals are on 31.2 per cent – so Labor are 3.0 per cent short of a third quota and Liberal are 2.1 per cent of a second. I personally would not be writing off Labor from holding off a third seat, but that doesn’t seem to be the general perception.

8.04pm. Tasmania: ALP apparatchik David O’Byrne says Labor is likely to win a seat off the Greens in Bass because the popularity of his sister, Michelle O’Byrne, is likely to bring another member across the line at the expense of Kim Booth. That member would almost certainly be Steve Reissig. So the most likely overall outcome as far as I can see is that the Labor loses a seat to the Liberals in Franklin and gains one from the Greens in Bass, and the total goes from 14-4-7 to 14-3-8.

8.00pm. Tasmania: Taking a step back, the only variation from the status quo that anyone is discussing is the possible loss of a Labor seat in Franklin. So unless I’m missing something, Labor look likely to retain their majority.

7.58pm. SA: Newland is clearly a shocker for the Liberals – a third of the vote counted and Labor on 61.2 per cent of the primary vote.

7.57pm. SA: It’s certainly not clear that Labor will win Stuart, from what I can see. The website has 16 per cent of the vote counted and Graham Gunn on 51.9 per cent. But that could be because the big Port Augusta booths are not in yet, and the tide will turn heavily when they are.

7.55pm. SA: Early figures from Mount Gambier, 6.0 per cent, and independent member Rory McEwen is doing better than expected with 46.2 per cent of the vote. It’s hard to see how he could lose from there, given that Labor are on 22.3 per cent. The ABC computer apparently predicts two independents, which I gather does not include Karlene Maywald. It also has Labor on 29 seats, which suggests that one of my calls for Labor is not looking certain. No idea which one though.

7.53pm. Tasmania: Finally more figures from Franklin, the count up to 17.9 per cent. Labor are down to 48.9 per cent, so still at least some chance of retaining three seats, although Paula Wreidt is definitely in danger. The Greens’ Nick McKim looks secure. Vanessa Goodwin would most likely be a new Liberal member.

7.51pm. Tasmania: The ABC says the swing against Labor is fading from about 4 per cent to 2 per cent, with the Liberals up 4 per cent, with the Greens down 2 per cent.

7.51pm. SA: Clearly my guess about that early Unley booth was on the money. Commenter Scott says the swing is only 3 per cent (from just 3.2 per cent of the count) and Dean Jaensch is saying Liberal retain.

7.5opm. Tasmania: Bearing in mind that the ABC has twice as many votes counted as are being published on the Electoral Commission site.

7.49pm. Tasmania: Labor’s vote is coming down in Bass, now down to 48.9 per cent. A 2-2-1 result is looking more likely, but 3-1-1- is still possible.

7.47pm. Tasmania: Results are slow to come through in Denison and Franklin. ABC Radio says 26 per cent is counted and Labor’s total vote is down about 4 per cent and the Liberals up about 6 per cent.

7.45pm. SA: A commenter (onya Scott – anyone else out there?) says the swing to Labor in the marginal Liberal seat of Mawson is a relatively subdued 5 per cent, still enough to cost them the seat.

7.44pm. SA: Only 3.2 per cent counted in Unley, but Labor leads 47.0 per cent to 40.5 per cent. Maybe this is from the Labor-leaning Goodwood area of the electorate. Liberal Hartley MP Joe Scalzi is on ABC Radio and doesn’t sound too confident. One of his interviewers is telling him he’s lost.

7.42pm. SA: Antony Green’s computer says the overall swing to Labor is 8.4 per cent, and their commenter is talking of 30 seats which is what I had predicted.

7.41pm. SA: Chris Schacht is only talking of a maximum of 28 seats, although he may be restraining himself. He says Hartley is not in the bag.

7.40pm. SA: The Liberals are all but conceding defeat in Norwood, which had been the subject of excited talk of a Liberal gain in the past few days.

7.36pm. Tasmania: Greens member Nick McKim says they are confident they will hold their seat in Bass.15 per cent in from Lyons – Labor holding up well, down only 1 per cent, but the Liberals are up 7 per cent. Perhaps this is where that overall swing is coming from. Labor will win three seats if they stay above 50 per cent, so it’s possible that the Greens will lose their seat despite a solid 14.2 per cent. A second Liberal winner would most certainly be Geoff Page. Someone has just said on ABC Radio that the Greens will not win a seat in Braddon, the only electorate where they do not do so currently, and that it will again by three Labor, two Liberal.

7.33pm. ABC Radio is talking about an overall Liberal increase of 7 per cent, which is more than what I’m seeing.

7.32pm. Tasmania: We’re now up to an almost meaningful 16.5 per cent of the count in Bass. The Liberals have only picked up about 1 per cent from Labor and the Greens are down 1 per cent. Last time the Liberals were very lucky to win two seats here, and may only narrowly do so again. If there is a third Labor winner it is likely to be Steve Reissig. On the Liberal ticket, Peter Gutwein leads former party leader Sue Napier 1386 to 990, with Napier having an uncomfortably narrow lead over David Fry, a former member who lost his seat in 2002.

7.30pm. SA: A talking head on ABC Television (I’m hearing this from News Radio so I can’t see who it is) is stalking as if Liberal veteran Graham Gunn is going to lose Stuart. The figures on the website have Gunn on 55.4 per cent, but that’s from 6.2 per cent of the vote and probably from booths away from the big towns.

7.28pm. Tasmania: About 5 per cent counted in Denison and the Greens are leading the Liberals, by enough to put a second Greens candidate (Cassy O’Connor) well into contention if it keeps up. Labor’s vote has plunged from 51 per cent to 39 per cent, but it’s too early to reach definite conclusions.

7.25pm. A closer look at Finniss: the Nationals are ahead of Labor, 19.9 per cent to 17.9 per cent, and presumably will pull in most of their preferences. The Liberals are on 41.2 per cent, still a winnable position, but this seat is one to keep an eye on.

7.23pm. Chris Schacht says there is a double-digit swing to Labor in Newland, held by the Liberals by about 5.5 per cent. Clearly we have a massacre on our hands here.

7.23pm. A bombshell from Finniss: Chris Pyne says Nationals candidate Kym McHugh is taking it right up to the Liberals.

7.22pm. Antony Green now on ABC Radio reeling through consistent Labor swings across various electorates of between 6 and 14 per cent.

7.20pm. SA: Stuart (the outback plus Port Augusta) reportedly swinging only slightly to Labor. The margin’s roughly 2 per cent, so this one could be tight.

7.17pm. Tasmania: 5 per cent now in from Franklin, and Labor’s primary vote is actually unchanged on 51 per cent despite the talk from earlier exit polls. Also little change for the Liberals (up about 1 per cent to 24 per cent) and the Greens (up about 1 per cent to 21 per cent). So talk of either Paula Wriedt or Lara Hiddings losing their seat may have been premature. Hiddings leads Wriedt, so the latter is indeed likely to be the casualty if there is one.

7.15pm. Pyne concedes the booth in question (the info here is from scrutineers, so these figures are not through yet) is quintessential middle class, and Chris Schacht says Labor has not won it in 20 years.

7.13pm. Federal Liberal MP Chris Pyne says there is a double-digit Labor swing in the marginal Liberal seat of Bright. Goodnight Irene.

7.13pm. South Australia: talk of a 7 per cent Labor swing in the marginal Labor seat of Croydon.

7.12pm. Still no meaningful results from Franklin in Tasmania, but now up to 7 per cent in Lyons. That exit poll’s looking good – Labor is indeed down by 5 per cent, but the Liberals are up 7 per cent and the Greens are down 1.5 per cent, but again, these are probably conservative booths. The distribution of the Labor vote among the candidates has remained the same.

7.09pm. Only 2.6 per cent counted, but in South Australia’s safest Liberal seat, Flinders, the Nationals vote is doubling from about 8 per cent to about 16 per cent. But Liberal member Liz Penfold is still well over 50 per cent.

7.05pm. In South Australia (I’m using Tasmanian time here, I’m afraid), former Labor Senator Chris Schacht says the Collinswood booth, in the only area of Enfield that is not extremely safe for Labor, is widely seen as a litmus test, and has swung heavily to Labor.

7.03pm. 2.73 per cent counted in Lyons. Labor incumbent Heather Butler is only slightly ahead of the other two Labor candidates, whereas Michael Polley and David Llewellyn look sure to be re-elected. Incumbents from the other parties (Rene Hidding for Liberal and Tim Morris for the Greens) comfortably lead their tickets. Overall, Labor are down 4 per cent, Liberal up 9 per cent and the Greens down 3 per cent, but these are probably conservative booths.

7.00pm. With 2.45 per cent counted in Braddon, there is no indication yet that either of the two Labor newcomers overcoming sitting member Brendon Best, as has been suggested. The main story in this seat is whether the Greens can win a seat, which they did not do last time. Overall, Labor is well down here and the Liberals well up, such that the Liberals lead 47.2 per cent to 40.5 per cent, but this is almost certainly because the results are from small conservative rural booths.

6.54pm. Results are starting to trickle in in Tasmania, though only 1.04 per cent counted. Michelle O’Byrne leads out of the Labor ticket in Bass with sitting member Jim Cox second and daylight third. On the totals, Labor are down about 3 per cent to the Greens with the Liberals stable. No idea where these booths are unfortunately.

6.48pm. Liberal Senator Guy Barnett is conceding Labor is likely to retain three seats in Denison, as they will need an extra 10 per cent of their vote. So the return of Labor’s David Barnett and Graeme Sturges and Peg Putt seems a foregone conclusion. There will be intra-party contests between a number of Labor candidates and Michael Hodgman and Fabian Dixon of the Liberals.

6.46pm. That exit poll reportedly has Labor down 5 per cent across the state and the Liberals up 3 per cent.

6.35pm. What the hell, I’ll do live commentary. I might get bored and give up, but we’ll see how we go. Polls closed in South Australia five minutes ago, and in Tasmania 35 minutes ago. ABC Radio says exit polls show Labor will lose one of their three seats in Franklin. The talk is that Paula Wriedt is more likely to lose her seat than Lara Giddings – obviously Paul Lennon is safe. If Labor loses two seats, they will lose their majority.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

113 comments on “Super Saturday live”

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  1. The second No Pokies candidate is Ann Bressington. I can tell you that she is a “drug rehabilitation pioneer”. What’s this about Unley? Antony’s computer, which is rarely wrong from 72.8 per cent of the vote, still says “Lib retain”.

  2. Haha, probably Graeme. The one I’m more interested in is if Xenophon’s result is the best ever for an Independent in a state or federal Upper House…

  3. Definitely yes Chris, although remember state-wide PR councils exist only in SA and NSW. The overall Council result might be the lowest major party combined vote since parties emerged, excluding Tasmania.

  4. The ones that I see as things to watch over the next few days:

    -The last seat in the upper house. It will be a race between Mark Parnell, Kate Reynolds and the fifth Labor candidate.
    -Mitchell is interesting. With a few booths yet to report, Hanna is on 48.5% of the 2PP vote.
    -Bass will go to the line. Michelle O’Byrne has 1.4 quotas, Kim Booth will be hoping to pick up over 0.3 quotas from the other Greens candidates, and then will be about 0.1-0.2 quotas short, and could conceivably get there with O’Byrne leakages.

  5. 9.37pm. SA: Iโ€™ve done my own calculations on the upper house so the percentages make sense. Only two No Pokies now; Labor four; Liberal three; Family First one; Greens take the seat that went missing from No Pokies.

    Must be something wrong there. Latest SEO results 2150 show quotas or quota excesses as
    LIB 0.06
    ALP 0.56
    XENO 0.53
    GRN 0.47
    DEM 0.21
    DEM->GRN flow will have to be very tight to put Parnell above ALP & Xeno’s excesses.

  6. It looks like the SA SEO is using real TCP figures. That last booth in Stuart was Davenport and made a huge difference!

    Congratulations Poll Bludger on an excellent commentary. I’m in NSW and only have the net to rely on. Well done.

  7. LC votes seem to be trending against FFP, which could destroy the Democrats chances for the final vacancy – the longer FFP are in the count, the longer it takes the Dems to get some preferences freed from FFP, increasing the likelihood that they will be eliminated before that time. The upward trend in the Greens vote is less relevant to a point than how much the FFP vote drops – if it starts to rebound upward, I’m thinking the Democrats could get home.

    A third No Pokies spot – while very unlikely – is also not inconceivable.

  8. I forgot Terry Cameron was even running! That’s what a high profile will do for you. Must say I am delighted about Nick Xenephon’s vote though.

  9. As far as the race for the final position.

    Assuming the Democrats can’t overtake the Greens (which is a question for another post), then the Dems have 0.2 quotas to give away, with the Greens only 0.04 behind Labor #5 and 0.1 behind Xenophon #3. Now, the Greens receive preferences from both Labor and Xenophon, so if it turns into a Labor/Greens or a Labor/Xenophon race for #11, the Greens will be in front.

    I’m about to punch the latest SEO figures into the Upperhouse calculator to see what I get.

  10. A hit! A very palpable hit!!

    I’ll miss Rob Kerin, who always struck me as a good bloke, but just lacking the ‘bastard’ quality that you need to be an effective leader.

    Kinda the reverse of Federal politics, where I like Kim Beazley too, but would never vote for him either.

    So who’s going to lead the local Libs now? I don’t know the ins and outs of the Liberal party well enough but I gather that Ian Evans and Vicky Chapman are the likely front runners. Got any goss as to what they are like?

  11. Re LC

    I never cranked up my own calculator, but, by hand, assuming the usual 2/3rds DEM is ATL and leakage is to XENO LIB ALP , elimination goes DIGNITY, NAT, LIB, DEM, leaving
    FF 0.78
    ALP 0.64
    GRN 0.60
    XENO 0.64
    and GRN goes out. Close though

  12. Here’s what Upperhouse gives me:

    4 ALP, 3 Lib and 2 Xen elected on primary.

    Before the microparties are eliminated, the numbers are:
    FF 5.10
    ALP 5.07
    XEN 4.83
    GRN 4.00
    DEM 1.70

    The next significant stage is the election of Dennis Hood (FF). At this point only Peter Lewis is left, out of the microcandidates:
    FF 8.50
    ALP 5.17
    XEN 4.93
    GRN 4.00
    DEM 2.96

    After Hood is elected you get:
    ALP 5.19
    XEN 4.96
    GRN 4.2
    DEM 3.64

    Then after Lewis (with 1.2%) is eliminated:
    XEN 5.77
    ALP 5.21
    GRN 4.4
    DEM 3.84

    So all of a sudden Xenophon’s #3 is in the lead. But then the Democrats are knocked out (half a % behind the Greens), and the Greens leapfrog into the lead:
    GRN 7.51
    XEN 6.5
    ALP 5.21

    So then, with the ALP in last place, they flow strongly to the Greens, electing Mark Parnell.

  13. So Geoff, to extrapolate that, you’re saying spot 10 to Labor and spot 11 to FFP? I’d all but written off Labor’s 5th and thought it would be FFP easily home in 10th and then a battle between the Dems, Greens and Xenophon 3 (sounds like a planet on Star Trek or something), with the winner still very much yet to be decided depending on the ebb and flow of a couple of tenths of a percent.

  14. Following on from Geoff: if the Greens are narrowly eliminated, as those figures suggest, their above-the-line preferences will go to No Pokies and deliver a seat to their third candidate, one John Darley – who surely thought he was only there to make up the numbers.

  15. Ben, one that I find interesting is that if you swing 0.3% from the Greens directly to the Democrats, it gets the third Xenophon candidate elected quite easily ahead of the Democrats. Yet, if that 0.3% goes directly to Xenophon, the Greens retain the seat. It seems like it’s just so unbelievably difficult to pin down that last seat – primaries don’t necessarily affect the result in the way you’d expect right now. I’d still have Mark as favourite right now though, as compared to my thought that the Dems would take the final vacancy about a third of the way through the count. Things just keep changing sporadically, but it’s addictive page-refreshing action nonetheless…

  16. Nope, my stuff-up William – I automatically assumed Greens preferences to go to Labor, forgetting that they’d actually go to Xenophon first.

  17. It’s very clouded, one needs to configure one’s programs with a whole slew of “Notional Tickets” that estimate the BTL flows. This would be particularly necessary for the minnows at or below 0.05Q. It is normal to see the Greens creep… creep… creep up as these are carried out, but the leakage also means that Xeno, ALP and FF also creep up. The Greens have to GAIN on them in this creeping race. After that, when it comes to the DEMS cut-up (they will probably be cut up at about 0.4Q, but only 0.2Q will be their own), their own leakage will still be crucial. If their ATL is at least 75% of their total and their BTLs favour GRN, then GRN can get there.

  18. Labor preferences Xenophon ahead of Greens? I didn’t realise it. Well, that makes it harder for the Greens and easier for Xenophon 3.

    Oh well, this is “too close to call”, if I’ve ever seen it.

  19. Addendum…. they would do this on either the ALP or the Xeno cut-up, but Family First could be a spoiler if they fall to 4th place behind ALP/XENO/GRN- they would then give Xeno a 3rd seat.

  20. At 2320 AEDST, ALP’s excess is now less than GRNs and going steadily down .48Q vs 0.46Q. If this keeps up, it would give GRNS the seat, because about 93% of the ALP will be ATL

  21. No, actually I’m wrong there Ben, they don’t… I don’t know where I got that idea, I must have misread. I’m making too many errors here – I need a Red Bull!!

  22. Night folks, thanks William for your efforts tonight, as with the other posters, it’s been fun.

    Aussies need 95 to win so I’m going to cheer the lads home.

  23. Keep your eye on the comments thread, where Geoff will hopefully keep you posted on further developments.

    Nah… off to bed.

    But, keep in mind that BTLs from INDs can derail everything… this happened to the Greens’ Louise Crossley in Tas in 1998.

    Also, (I’m assuming they exist in SA) Declaration, Absentee and Postals can skew the picture markedly when results are close. This also happened in Tas in 2004 Federal.

  24. I’m shattered. A day handing out how-to-vote lib cards, followed by scruitneering and then a trip to party headquarters for the wake. It is a massacre. I’m getting that Graham Gunn will hold Stuart and Pisoni will hold Unley but it’ll go down to postal votes.

    Going to bed now. Thanks for the commentary pollbludger, it was good to get an end of evening overview.

  25. It is a shame that family first and Xeno got any seats at all.
    Both Parties contain the devils spawn, Ann Bressington is of obvious concern, and if you voted for Family First you have not seen the lies on their website.

    It is a same there are so many un-educated people in South Australia.

    We were once such a cultured state.

    No Upper House means absolute power to the ruling party.
    When it comes to Dictatorships Iraq ain’t seen nothing.

  26. Great job to all involved and good to see Scalzi gone, my goodness how did xeno get 2 quota’s, well and the crows lost what a great weekend

  27. At close, the LC excess quotas, in descending order are as below.
    ALP has dropped 0.1 of a quota behind GRN, and will now be cut up ahead of GRN or XENO, thus electing GRN. Probably-probably- FFP will get the remaining seat, but could be XENO

    Family First Party 0.59
    Independent Nick Xenophon – No Pokies 0.58
    Australian Greens 0.49
    Australian Labor Party 0.39
    Australian Democrats 0.21
    One Nation 0.09
    The Nationals 0.08
    Independent Hemp Help End Marijuana Prohibition 0.08
    Shooters Party 0.07
    Dignity for Disabled 0.07
    Independent Principles People Reform Before Parties 0.07
    Liberal Party 0.06
    Independent Animal Liberation No Battery Hens 0.03
    Independent Animal Liberation Ban Live Exports 0.03
    Independent for Recreational Fishers 0.02
    Stormy Summers Reform Party 0.02
    Independent Mick Dzamko 0.02
    Independent for Rural/Regional SA 0.01
    Independent Terry Cameron 0.01
    Independent Andrew Stanko for Community Action 0.01
    Independent for Social & Environmental Justice 0.01
    Independent for Aboriginal Representation and Reconciliation 0.01
    Independent Ralph Clarke Buy Back ETSA 0.01
    Independent Laury Bais No Drugs 0.01
    Independent Savebabe.com 0

  28. William, thanks for the excellent coverage, as always!
    Assuming Kris Hanna holds Mitchell, I think we could count it as a virtual Labor hold anyway(would Hanna be an Independent Labor Member?).
    Stuart – the postal vote to come will no doubt be very much in the Liberal Party’s favour, but I think Labor might just hold on there by less than 100 votes.
    Any chance still of an upset in Unley?
    And, note the large swing against Kerin in Frome.
    Chloe Fox’s win in Bright – the largest swing against the Liberals in the state.

  29. One thing that seems to be certain after this results… bye bye Democrats… mind you 2007 and 2010 seem to be the ultimatum’s for the Democrats [when the next Federal and SA Elections are to be hold and to see whether the 4 Senators or one MLC will remain in power]….. who knows the Democrats might have one little bit of magic left [Go Xeno – he certainly proved that!].
    I guess the dems should run a 2010 election with a ‘we’re back’ slogan – perhaps trying to emulate ‘it’s time’ Labor slogan [worked well in 1972 – failed in 2004 – what was latham thinking?]

    As for Family First Party… it’s pretty scary to think they will have the balance of power!

    Oh and thanks to the Pollbludger and Antony Green for their updates – awesome as usual – and well and truly kept up with the efforts of two state elections at one time….. I wonder when the final results will be in for Stuart and Mitchell as well as those ‘likely’ seats for Labor in Tasmania.

    Well… according to my computer this is the 94th Comment… let’s see if we can break the 100 mark ๐Ÿ˜€ and perhaps set long standing record.

  30. I would like to contribute to this ‘100 post’ record… ๐Ÿ˜€

    I was thinking this morning of Nick Xenaphon and the fortunate postion he now founds himself… and the danger the Labor party is in because of it.

    First of all… lets do the unthinkable and ASSUME that Nick (Or should we call it No Pokies???) seizes a third seat this election.

    That is a MASSIVE amount of power, when you consider the Liberals (who will oppose anything Labor) has 8 seats… combined with Nick thats 11 seats already against Labor.

    They will have to buy Nick off… and that may not be as easy as it was to buy off Family First. He will truly hold the balance of power. Whilst this may cripple progress, it is probably very good for the State when you consider Labor can now do exactly as it please in the Lower House (they could have 3 or 4 of their own oppose a bill and still succeed.)

    Which brings me to my next point: The government has said it wants to abolish the Legislative Council. It could not have picked a worst time to do this given:

    – The Liberals will claim it is an ‘arrogant’ government trying to seize all power (wrongly when you consider Rann suggested it when he had a hung government) Nevertheless if they do their job right, they can run an excellent scare campaign.

    – The Democrats will furiously fight it as it is their last avenue of making any sort of contribution to politics

    – Nick Xenaphon… well… he will shut down the city with massive protests of people marching with goats to stop this happening.

    Labor has absoulutely no chance of succeeding at this stage.

    Now lets consider for a minute the implications of this. Nick X is a cunning bastard. If the electorate becomes totally pissed off with the idea of Labor’s proposal, he will come out with a campaign saying something along the lines of

    ‘Show the Labor party we need the upper house… vote No Pokies at the next election’ (of course, it would involved a lot more stunting (is that a word?) then this!)

    If he keeps the same appeal as he did for this election, he will have an excellent shot at winning one or even two more seats, depending on the backlash to the governments proposal.

    He could end up with 4 or 5 seats in the Upper House in four years… think of the power that would wield. Nobody could do anything without his parties approval

    Obviously this is all just wild speculation… but surely it isn’t that unbelievable. For one man to seize TWENTY ONE PERCENT of the primary vote is absoultely unbelievable. Think about it… thats 160 000 who voted for him. Amazing.

    *for the record I didn’t vote for him (I tried Democrats…lol…) but I think he is doing a very good job.

    I have said my piece ๐Ÿ™‚

  31. A few interesting elements.

    One is, what will happen to the No Pokies Party, and by that I don’t just mean Xenophon. Clearly, in the past it has been one of those shells of a party basically run as a one-man operation, which we see so many of in NSW.

    But it is now more interesting. Has anyone actually considered the possibility of Ann Bressington (or even a third No Pokies MP) having a mind of their own, and also whether there will be an effort, successful or not, to turn it into a real party, or will they just disperse as independents?

    The other thing is in regard to a referendum on abolishing the upper house. Wouldn’t such a referendum need to be approved by the Upper House? Family First, the Democrats, No Pokies and the Greens (if we elect someone) will all oppose it, and Nick Minchin last night sounded pretty certain that the Liberals would oppose it too.

    So in that case, does it really matter what the dynamics of a referendum are? It’s just not going to get that far.

  32. I disagree… if the Labor party pushes long and hard enough to get even a slight amount of public support for the referendum, then the upper house wouldn’t dare oppose it. This would lead to scorning from the Labor party in regards to

    “Not allowing the people the choice and freedom to decide what they really want, decide what is best for our great state”

    Can anybody see Mike Rann quote that last line? I can. Easily. Word for word…

    That and a whole lot of other garbage that is, in context, true. It is not up to the upper hosue to decide this, it is up to the state.

    Besides, I reckon Nick would love the challenge…

    Mark my words, if Labor want this badly enough then it will go ahead… the only question is whether the public will support it. That is yet to be seen (although I highly doubt it)

  33. In relation to Ben’s question of whether the upper house will need to pass any bill to abolish the same, yes, according to (s 10 I think) the State’s Constitution, abolition or alteration to its the parliament’s current form requires a bill to be passed by both house of parliament.

    Then it has to be approved by a majority of voters at a subsequent referendum.

    In relation to the numbers of the upper house and whether it would get through, Kevin Foley’s (Treasurer) invitation to Nick Minchin for the SA Liberals last night on the ABC coverage to support such a bill indicates the Rann Government knows it wouldn’t get the bill past the first hurdle without their support.

  34. Got to break that 100 mark, so here’s an interesting question: Where did Nick Xenophon get his money and manpower from?

    He told me about six weeks ago his campaign was flat-strapped – although any pol would.

    He also announced that he would not take donations over $100 – yet had at least two designs of coreflutes, t-shirts on polling booth workers, TV advertising…

    South Australia’s electoral laws do sod-all for disclosure. Going by the way he polled, it’s quite possible that Xenophon got his funds from small donations, but that’s a stressful way to run a campaign.

    Nick believes in openess etc. Should he be expected to present some sort of financial report? Any thoughts, poll-pickers?

  35. The abolition of the Upper House will be the first weapon a toothless opposition will try to throw at the huge Rann government. It will be used to paint a government of arrogance which desires absolute power. If the Liberals play this one right, and if we go on past performances they sadly won’t, they could actually make major inroads into Labor in 2010.

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