Surprised by Roy

No Advertiser poll today – presumably they are holding back for tomorrow. Roy Morgan has produced its traditional day-before poll, but it’s hard to take seriously even by their standards. The sample is a mere 420, and the surveys were conducted "on the weekends between February 4/5 and March 11/12". Separate results are provided for the periods "before election announcement" and "after election announcement", although the former figures are too out-of-date to be of any conceivable interest. The results are at least consistent, with all Morgan’s figures from this year putting Labor on an impossible 50.5 per cent of the primary vote. The Liberals have actually faded during the campaign, from 33 per cent in the previous poll to 30.5 per cent in the latter period of the current one. This one’s going straight in the bin.

In today’s Advertiser, Greg Kelton says that "Labor sources claim their internal polling shows them with a very good chance of winning outer suburban seats such as Newland, Bright, Mawson and Light", giving further reason to think they will not win Hartley and Morialta, as the Poll Bludger election guide currently predicts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6 comments on “Surprised by Roy”

  1. Please allow me to indulge my Predictions..

    1/ SA: The swing is on and a 2pp of around 55-56%. Labor to pick up all seven Liberal seats on margins of less than 6%, plus Fisher to give them a total of 31. Also in with a chance in Unley & Heysen which should be close.

    Liberals to gain Mt Gambier, Hammond and possibly Chaffey.

    Overal Prediction: ALP 31, Liberal 15, National 1. An undeserved win to slick Mike…and labor’s 1st 2 party majority in 20 years. I hope I’m wrong but if the result varies from this, the majority is more likely to be on the high side.

    2/ Tassie:

    A outright (and deserved) victory for Premier Lennon, with the ALP to retain its 14 seats. What a breath of fresh air to have a straight talking, decent, down to earth leader…

  2. I don’t agree with your indulgent Labor gains Peter, but I would definitely back your Tassie comment. I’m a Liberal to the core but if I bump into Lennon any time soon I’ll be shaking his hand. What a legend that man is! Straight-talking, no nonsense man. In fact, if we wanted to draw some comparisons we could look to Rob Kerin in SA. Of all the State leaders Kerin has the most in common with Lennon. The people of Tasmania clearly like rustic, good old fashioned honesty while the Adelaidians have let the arty-farty festival air go to their heads and have been drugged by presidential garbage.

  3. I’d have to dissagree with that, you couldn’t possible draw comparisons between Kerin and Lennon, firstly Lennon has a thing called popularity and he is in fact a “leader”, kerin has been caretaker whilst the SA Liberal train has been cruising down the line getting ready to hit a big brick wall. and just wondering did Kerin have an accident a while back, he seems to smile whilst he’s talking for no reason my parents think he’s had soem surgery?

  4. Is the unravelling in the SA Liberals precipitate?

    A letter in the AFR today from a former branch president and continuing Liberal member dumped wholeheartedly on the state director & campaign committee. It ended with a plea to ‘delegates to state council’ to support a proposed no confidence motion in the campaign team.

    I surmise the author is still a staunch Liberal (else why is he upset about machine matters or the poor campaign). Knives are often sharpened before a slaughter, but usually by power-brokers, and in private.

  5. The fact is as every South Australian knows, Kerin is hopeless. This is not a party political slur, it really should be considered a learned analysis. A person who cannot string a sentence together without continual stammering or the inability to pronounce the letter “H” cannot be considered by the electorate as a leader.

    Even the Libs are aware of this. Ian Evans facial expression when Kerin was giving his final tilt for the leadership on ABC TV tonight says it all.

    The Libs are happy to lose up to eight seats if it means they are rid of Kerin and Ian can take the reigns.

    Quote “YOOGE difference for SA” Rob Kerin 891 17th March 2006.

  6. Nice guy, Rob Kerin, but yeah, not really cut out for the cut and thrust of politics. How he ever got elected leader in the first place is quite beyond me.

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