Guten Morgan, Herr Rann

Today’s South Australian Roy Morgan poll has Labor support at the organisation’s usual absurdly high levels – 50.5 per cent on the primary vote and a 60.5-39.5 lead on two-party preferred. An 11.5 per cent swing, as predicted by the poll, would just about send Rob Kerin off to Centrelink (he holds Frome by precisely that margin) and leave the Liberals with fewer seats than Labor won at the 1993 wipeout. Bless Morgan’s heart, but they do some funny things – like including the Nationals in the "Independent/Others" column, an indignity they do not even visit upon One Nation. This should be borne in mind when assessing the even more frightening primary vote result of 33 per cent for the Liberals, which is actually up 1 per cent on the previous poll. If anyone was wondering, the graph of Morgan results in this earlier post features Coalition primary vote figures that were arrived at by adding 1.5 per cent to the Liberals’ results, that being the statewide Nationals vote at the 2002 election.

In other poll news, the indefatigable Oompa-Loompas in the basement of the Advertiser building have produced their third survey in as many days. This time it’s a statewide poll of 657 voters conducted on Wednesday, which shows the Liberals improving on their position at the previous poll by a fairly meaningless 1 per cent at Labor’s expense, on both primary and two-party. Labor now leads 42 per cent to 33 per cent on the former measure and 56-44 on the latter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3 comments on “Guten Morgan, Herr Rann”

  1. Guten Morgan Herr Rann indeed!

    Let’s hope there isn’t a burning of the Reichstag.

    What a pity Mike Rann’s name isn’t Bunny. Then we could have had

    the infamous Herr Bunny!!! (with apologies toe Max Smart).

  2. A little bit of pedantry on my part, but the correct German spelling for good morning is “Guten Morgen”.

    As for the poll, well it pretty much points to the Rannslide we’re all expecting.

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