The one and Unley

The Advertiser’s opinion pollsters don’t muck around – I hope for the sake of News Corporation’s fragile budgetary position that they’re outsourcing this stuff to India. Anyway, today the paper has run a poll of 516 voters from a seat identified in Tuesday’s post as a potential upset Labor win, the inner city electorate of Unley which the Liberals hold with a margin of 9.1 per cent. The poll indeed suggests that the Liberals are in big trouble – their controversial candidate David Pisoni leads Unley mayor and Labor candidate Michael Keenan 45 per cent to 40 per cent on the decided primary vote, but trails 51-49 on two-party preferred. If that sounds like a big primary vote gap for Labor to narrow, it should be noted that the Greens dominate the minor party vote with Family First barely registering. The Advertiser also reports that the sitting Liberal member Pisoni effectively ousted for preselection, Mark Brindal, was still not ruling out standing as an independent. Nominations closed at noon, so we shall find out soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.