Take two

The Poll Bludger’s post from Thursday on preference tickets for the Western Australian upper house election was inadequately proof-read and has now been thoroughly cleaned up. Readers may still find themselves scratching their heads, but garbled syntax will not be to blame. Since then the Poll Bludger has had two changes of heart, with the Greens now rated a chance in East Metropolitan but Family First written off in South West. The Greens were robbed of Liberal preferences in 2001 because the second candidate on the Liberal ticket only managed to win the fifth and final position. Normally they would come fourth and pass a surplus on to the Greens, needing only 33.3 per cent of the vote to do so, but in 2001 they collapsed to an unprecedented 30.3 per cent. In South West, it had escaped the Poll Bludger’s notice that the Christian Democratic Party will give its preferences to Paddy Embry ahead of Family First. This means that Family First are likely to be eliminated ahead of Embry, who will in turn have no chance of overcoming a fourth Coalition candidate due to various preference arrangements. In overall terms, the official Poll Bludger prediction is now 17 for the Coalition, between 13 and 16 for Labor, and between one and four for the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.