Paramatta, Eden-Monaro and elsewhere

Two polls taken after the Liberal launch on Sunday and before Labor’s effort on Wednesday suggest Labor will need every bit of the bounce that Medicare Gold can offer them if they are to win two vital New South Wales seats. Parramatta is one electorate where Labor had been feeling confident, thanks in large part to the misadventures of Liberal member Ross Cameron. But today the Sydney Morning Herald carries a poll from ACNielsen that shows Cameron with no less than 49 per cent of the primary vote (in keeping with their recent pattern of remarkably high primary results for the Coalition) and a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, despite recording "the highest recognition rating ACNielsen has recorded in an electorate this election". In fact, "of those people who know who he is, 54 per cent approve of the job he is doing". The sample is a substantial 1002, high enough for the report to feel comfortable discussing the margin of error (an all too rare feature of Australian opinion poll reporting, as discussed by an excited Terry McCrann of the Herald Sun). In the equally important seat of Eden-Monaro, a commenter at Christopher Sheil’s Back Pages reports that a poll in today’s Canberra Times has Liberal member Gary Nairn leading Labor’s Kel Watt 54-46. More bad news for Labor with Roy Morgan’s weekly phone survey, which continued to charter new territory for the organisation in finding a further increase in the Coalition’s lead, now at 52.5-47.5. Unfortunately, ACNielsen are not forthcoming with a full national poll this Saturday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.