Many opinion polls

A closer look at the Newspoll shows the Coalition’s primary vote up one point to a very healthy 46 per cent, while the Greens have faded two points from last week’s spike to record a more typical 6 per cent.

The following table provides recent results from four sources. On Saturday the Gold Coast Weekend Bulletin produced surveys of the outer Brisbane seat of Rankin, held by Labor front-bencher Craig Emerson, and the New South Wales north coast seat of Richmond, held by National Party minister Larry Anthony. The surveys were conducted on Wednesday, after Labor’s tax announcement and before the Jakarta bombing, from a sample in each case was about 450. Then follows results from all five Tasmanian seats from the EMRS poll in Sunday’s Launceston Examiner, which were conducted before the tax announcement and have less impressive samples of around 200. The results from Adelaide and Boothby come from polls of 419 and 425 respondents conducted simultaneously on Wednesday, the day after the tax announcement and before the Jakarta bombing, which the The Advertiser respectively published on Saturday and Tuesday (results for Boothby not available online – many thanks to Phil Robins for passing on the results).

Rankin (Qld, ALP 2.4%) 51 49 41 42 6
Richmond (NSW, Nat 1.7%) 52 48 38 41 15
Bass (Tas, ALP 2.1%) 46 54 37 51 11
Braddon (Tas, ALP 6.0%) 46 54 37 50 8
Denison (Tas, ALP 14.3%) 64 36 44 30 22
Franklin (Tas, ALP 8.1%) 53 47 39 41 15
Lyons (Tas, ALP 8.2%) 59 41 51 39 10
Adelaide (SA, Lib 0.6%) 49 51 39 47 6
Boothby (SA, Lib 7.4%) 44 56 27 52 12

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.