Back in the EMRS

Another weekend has brought another round of sobering opinion polls for Labor. Polling conducted for the Launceston Examiner by EMRS suggests Labor is in danger of dropping two seats in Tasmania. The survey covered 200 voters from each of Tasmania’s five electorates and the results apparently show the Liberals ahead 54-46 in Bass and Braddon. A similar poll published on June 29 had Labor comfortably ahead in all five seats.

Taverner is conducting qualitative research of the New South Wales seats of Greenway (Labor 3.1%) and Dobell (Liberal 0.4%) with "a panel of 222 people in the two electorates being consulted every week during the campaign for The Sun-Herald". Limited though the sample may be, the results had the Coalition ahead 54-46 in Greenway and 51-49 in Dobell. The report notes that "the poll in the first week revealed that in Dobell voters were thinking about deserting the Government, with a slight move Labor’s way" but "that move changed in the second week", while "Greenway started swinging to the Government in the first week and continued to sharply move away from Labor in the second".

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.