Newspoll and Westpoll

Newspoll appears to have moved to regular weekly polling for the campaign period, this week recording the Coalition picking up another 2 per cent to even the ledger on two-party preferred. This was revealed on tonight’s edition of The Gallery, Sky News’ weekly election gabfest featuring various News Limited hacks. Full results will appear in tomorrow’s Australian, so more details in the not very distant future. The West Australian today released polls for two Perth marginal seats, Canning (Liberal 0.4%) and Swan (Labor 2.1%). They have not distributed the undecided vote, so the Poll Bludger has done it for them: in Canning, where former state minister Kay Hallahan has been drafted as a last-minute replacement for a floundering Labor candidate, the Liberals were on 54 per cent, Labor 30 per cent and the Greens 10 per cent; in Swan, where Liberal candidate Andrew Murfin has endured an avalanche of horrendous publicity, the Liberals were on 48 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and the Greens 10 per cent. While such an outcome would be catastrophic for Labor, they do have the consolation that polls with samples of 200 are not worth much, especially with around 18 per cent of those voters undecided. But it’s another increment of evidence suggesting that Labor is drifting dangerously and needs to do well out of the release of its tax policy, whenever that may be.

UPDATE (7/9/04): The Australian’s Newspoll coverage is now up – Coalition up two points to 45 per cent, Labor steady on 40 per cent, Greens up two to 8 per cent (interestingly, after a week of bad press). Those who have gained have done so at the expense of "others", down from 10 to 6 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.