Crystal ball time

Dan Van Blarcom may consider himself the inaugural recipient of the Poll Bludger Kiss of Death. Apparently if this site describes you as "promising" (see somewhere in the middle of this lengthy posting) that means you can expect the entire nation to be shown a photo of you wearing a swastika armband before the week is through. For such has been the fate of the now-disendorsed National Party candidate for Whitsunday, who in my defence certainly boasted a promising CV – respected commodore of the local yacht club, trusted announcer of boating reports on local radio. Unfortunately it has now emerged that self-appointed fuhrer of the Queensland Nazi Party (admittedly at the age of 16) and member of the Freedom Vigilantes and the League of Rights had been tactfully omitted. Van Blarcom maintains he was working as an undercover agent, but details of this claim are sketchy enough that the National Party has been unable to accept it.

Having established that unpromising precedent, the Poll Bludger will devote the final weekend of the campaign to putting his crystal balls on the line and calling the result seat-by-seat. This will require a lengthy process involving cutting-edge techniques of data collation and analysis, computerised statistical modelling based on breakthrough artificial intelligence technology, and the tossing of a few coins. This and a new round of campaign updates will be added to the Queensland election guide either tomorrow or Monday, depending on how I go.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.