Margin: Liberal 5.1%
Region: North Metropolitan
Click here for electoral boundaries map
Electorate analysis: Located about 15 kilometres of north-west of the city, the electorate of Scarborough includes the coastal suburb bearing its name and its immediate northern neighbour Trigg, extending inland through Doubleview and the southern part of Karrinyup to Gwelup, Innaloo and the Osborne Park light industrial area. Innaloo in particular is fairly strong for Labor, but this is more than cancelled out by the Liberal lean in the coastal suburbs. The redistribution has reoriented the electorate slightly northwards, adding 2500 votes from Carine at Trigg and Gwelup and transferring around 2000 at City Beach and Woodlands to Churchlands.
Scarborough began to urbanise shortly before the Second World War, and an electorate bearing the name was first created in 1974. It was won narrowly for the Liberals on that occasion by Raymond Young, previously member for abolished Wembley. Young was unseated when the northern suburbs turned decisively to Labor under the leadership of Brian Burke in 1983, delivering Scarborough to another colourful Labor figure in Graham Burkett, who was later sentenced to jail in 2006 for receiving kickbacks from developers while working as chief-of-staff to Gallop government Housing Minister Nick Griffiths.
George Strickland gained the seat for the Liberals at the 1989 election, moving to the successor seat of Innaloo when Scarborough was abolished in 1996. He retired in 2001, and Innaloo was won for Labor by John Quigley. Innaloo was abolished at the 2005 election and its territory divided between the conservative seats of Carine and Churchlands, prompting Quigley to seek refuge in the new outer suburbs seat of Mindarie. The one-vote one-value regime introduced at the 2008 election required that a new electorate be created in the northern coastal corridor, which was achieved by pushing Carine north and Churchlands south to acccommodate the re-creation of Scarborough.
Scarborough had a 2.4% notional Liberal margin on its creation, which was padded out by a 2.6% swing at the election. The successful Liberal candidate was Liza Harvey, owner of a local tackle shop and an advocate of development with respect to the locally contentious high-rise issues. The original front-runner for preselection was said to have been Australian Taxation Office accountant Tony Krsticevic, but he instead snapped up the safer option of Carine when Katie Hodson-Thomas announced her retirement. Harvey was promoted to parliamentary secretary in December 2010 and then to the ministry in the important police and road safety portfolio in June 2012.
Analysis written by William Bowe. All post-redistribution margins are as calculated by Antony Green at ABC Elections. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.