Margin: Liberal 12.7%
Region: North Metropolitan
Click here for electoral boundaries map
Electorate analysis: The northern suburbs seat of Carine extends along the western side of the Mitchell Freeway from northern Gwelup through Carine to Duncraig, also taking in northern Karrinyup and a short stretch of coast at North Beach and Watermans Bay. The redistribution has reoriented the electorate northwards, adding most of Duncraig from Hillarys and making two transfers to Scarborough at the southern end, encompassing Trigg on the coast and southern Gwelup along the freeway. The changes have cut the Liberal margin from 14.5% to 12.7%.
Carine was created at the 1996 election in place of abolished Marmion, which in turn replaced Karrinyup in 1983. Jim Clarko held Karrinyup and Marmion for the Liberals from 1974 to 1996, and his departure caused Carine to develop into a contest between Liberal candidate Katie Hodson-Thomas and independent Peter Kyle, whom Hodson-Thomas had defeated preselection. Hodson-Thomas prevailed by 2.2% and went on to served on the front bench throughout the Liberals’ years in opposition. She announced she would not seek another term on the morning of Troy Buswell’s elevation to the leadership in January 2008, complaining he had subjected her to inappropriate remarks.
The Liberals promptly preselected Tony Krsticevic, an Australian Taxation Office accountant who had earlier been set for the less attractive prospect of Scarborough.
Analysis written by William Bowe. All post-redistribution margins are as calculated by Antony Green at ABC Elections. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.