Narre Warren North
Margin: Labor 4.8%
Region: South Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Holt (67%)/La Trobe (33%)
Candidates in ballot paper order
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AMANDA STAPLEDON MERY MEKHAIL KAREN JONES ROBERT GEORGE WHITE LUKE DONNELLAN CHRIS BLACKBURN WASIM QURESHI |
2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP |
PAST RESULTS
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DEMOGRAPHICS |
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RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.
PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.
DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.
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The marginal Labor seat of Narre Warren North is located in Melbourne’s south-eastern outskirts, consisting of the suburbs of Narre Warren and Narre Warren North together with part of Berwick in the east, together with Hallam and eastern Endeavour Hills in the west. The redistribution has given Labor a 1.8% boost by pushing the electorate southwards, adding 10,000 voters in Narre Warren south of Monash Freeway from Narre Warren South, while transferring 5000 voters in Berwick to Gembrook in the east and a further 3000 in Endeavour Hills to Dandenong in the west.
Narre Warren North was created at the 2002 election with the abolition of Berwick, which had been held by the Liberals since its creation in 1976. Berwick MP and Liberal Shadow Treasurer Robert Dean intended to contest the neighbouring seat of Gembrook, but the plan came memorably undone when he was removed from the electoral roll on the grounds that he no longer lived at his registered address, which left him ineligible to stand. Labor subsequently recorded a remarkable 15.8% swing in Narre Warren North, which contained most of the voters from the old seat of Berwick. The result was all but replicated in 2006, when the Liberals went further backwards on the primary vote and picked up a negligible swing of 0.5% on two-party preferred. The swing to the Liberals in 2010 was a solid 6.2%, but this still left intact a Labor margin of 3.0%.
The seat has been held for Labor throughout this time by Luke Donnellan, a former real estate agent and member of the Right. Donnellan served as a parliamentary secretary from 2006 until the defeat of the Brumby government in 2010, then won promotion to the shadow ministry in the child safety and sport and recreation portfolios. He was reassigned to roads and road safety in the reshuffle that followed Rob Hulls’ resignation in February 2012. The Liberal candidate for the seat is Amanda Stapledon, the deputy mayor of Casey.