Margin: Liberal 1.5%
Region: South Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Isaacs (88%)/Hotham (12%)
Candidates in ballot paper order
2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP
RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.
PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.
DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.
Located around 25 kilometres to the south-east of central Melbourne, the bayside electorate of Mordialloc has long been a marginal seat and was a key Liberal gain in 2010, when a 5.6% swing accounted for a Labor margin of 3.5%. However, it has been so transformed by the redistribution that a slight majority of the voters in the redrawn electorate were previously in Carrum, its neighbour to the south. However, the changes have had only a modest impact on the Liberal margin, which is cut by 0.6%.
On the new boundaries, Mordialloc extends along the bay from Parkdale south through Mordialloc, Aspendale and Edithvale to Chelsea. It further extends inland to Apendale Gardens and Chelsea Heights at the southern end, and parts of Cheltenham and Mentone in the north. The area previously in Carrum encompasses Aspendale, Aspendale Gardens, Edithvale, Chelsea and Chelsea Heights, home to 22,000 voters. In the north, 11,000 voters in Cheltenham and Heatherton have been transferred to Clarinda, which replaces the old electorate of Clayton. Further inland, the 9,300 voters of Dingley Village and Waterways are lost to Keysborough, successor to abolished Lyndhurst.
Mordialloc had a notional Labor margin of 1.5% when it was created in 1992, but it was easily won for the Liberals at the ensuing election by Geoff Leigh with a swing of 8.8%. Leigh had previously held the much safer seat of Malvern nearer the city, but was forced to take Mordialloc after losing preselection to future party leader Robert Doyle. His margin in Mordialloc was progressively whittled away at the 1996 and 1999 elections, and he was defeated by a 7.0% swing in 2002. Janice Munt held the seat for Labor for the next two terms, before her defeat in 2010 by Lorraine Wreford, previously the mayor of Casey.
Labors new candidate for the seat is Tim Richardson, a former electorate officer to federal Isaacs MP Mark Dreyfus, who won preselection ahead of Christopher Ranson, a staffer to Daniel Andrews.
The tenor of reporting through the campaign has been that the Liberals are particularly pessimistic about Mordialloc, while maintaining hopes for nearby Bentleigh and Carrum. In the final days of the campaign, the Herald-Sun has reported that Labor was “upbeat” and the Liberals had “all but given up”.