New South Wales election 2015


Margin: Liberal 3.6%
Region: St George
Federal: Barton

Candidates in ballot paper order



Liberal (top)


Christian Democratic Party


Labor (bottom)

No Land Tax




Two-party preferred booth results from 2011 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

Lost by Labor in 2011 for the first time since its creation in 1941, Rockdale encompasses the western shore of Botany Bay, from Wolli Creek and the mouth of Cooks River in the north through Arncliffe, Rockdale, and Ramsgate to Sans Souci and the mouth of the Georges River in the south. It has not been affected by the redistribution.

Labor’s closest scrape prior to 2011 came in 1986, when Brian Bannon agreed to relinquish the seat to Barrie Unsworth to facilitate his move from the upper house to succeed Neville Wran as Premier. Unsworth came within 54 votes of what would have been a spectacular defeat following a 17.1% slump in the Labor primary vote and an estimated two-party swing of 14.5%. The 1988 election produced a more typical result, despite the heavy defeat of Unsworth’s government, and Unsworth carried on as member for a term before bowing out in 1991. He was succeeded by George Thompson, who was in turn persuaded by the Right to stand aside in 2003 to make way for the faction’s star recruit, Sydney Lord Mayor Frank Sartor.

Despite his swift elevation to the ministry, Sartor required head office intervention to see off a challenge to his preselection at the 2007 election from Shaoquett Moselmane, the mayor of Rockdale and a leader of the Lebanese community, who would eventually find a parliamentary berth in the upper house in 2009. Sartor’s role as Planning Minister entangled him with many of the government’s most severe political difficulties, and he was dumped from the ministry when Nathan Rees became Premier in September 2008. Nonetheless, Sartor very nearly prevailed over Kristina Keneally as the Right’s candidate for the leadership after it withdrew its support from Rees in late 2009. He at least managed a return to cabinet as Environment Minister, but in December 2010 he announced he would join the exodus at the election to be held three months hence.

The swing to the Liberals in 2011 was 13.9%, sufficient to secure a 3.6% winning margin for Liberal candidate John Flowers, a local councillor and former mayor. Flowers will again be opposed at the coming election by Labor’s unsuccessful candidate from 2011, Steve Kamper, the principal of a local accountancy firm.

Corrections, complaints and feedback to William Bowe at pollbludger-at-bigpond-dot-com. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.

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