ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia

A new WA poll finds the Liberals taking a slight knock since the last such poll in mid-September, but otherwise shows little change.

The West Australian today carries a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention showing Labor with a lead of 52-48, up from 51-49 at the last such poll in mid-September. On the primary vote, the Liberals are down 2.3% to 35.9%, the Nationals are up 0.7% to 6.1%, Labor are up 0.2% to 36.7%, and the Greens are down 0.8% to 7.7%. Mark McGowan’s lead over Colin Barnett as preferred premier is up from 54.1-45.9 to 55.6-44.4. The poll was conducted on Thursday evening, from a sample of 1785.

Morgan state polling: October 2016

Roy Morgan’s latest round of state polling finds Labor sneaking ahead in New South Wales, and building on a modest lead in Western Australia five months out from an election. UPDATE: With further state results now from Essential as well.

Roy Morgan has unloaded one of its occasional national polls of state voting intention, conducted by SMS between September 30 and October 2. UPDATE: And now Essential Research has produced <a href="essential-report_statevoting_sep2016“>state voting intention numbers aggregated from its polling for July through September. The following relates the results for both state by state.

New South Wales: Morgan has Labor taking a 51.5-48.5 lead, after trailing 50.5-49.5 in August, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 31.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three). Sample: 1045. Essential has it at 52-48, unchanged from April to June, from primary votes of Coalition 44%, Labor 37% and Greens 9%, all unchanged. Sample: 3867.

Victoria: Perhaps surprisingly, Morgan has Labor’s lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 39% (up two), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 13% (down half) and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 6% (down one). Sample: 1306. Essential has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 40% (down one) and Greens 12% (steady). Sample: 2386.

Queensland: Morgin finds Labor leading 52-48 after a 50-50 result, with primary votes of Labor 35.5% (down one), Liberal National Party 33.5% (down five), Greens 12% (up 2.5%) and One Nation 10.5% (up two). Sample: 714. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 37% (steady), Liberal National Party 38% (down two) and Greens 8% (steady). Sample: 2880.

Western Australia: Five months out from the election, Morgan has Labor’s lead out from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Liberal-Nationals 39% (down two), Labor 36.5% (up one), Greens 12.5% (unchanged) and One Nation 6% (up one, although the party is not registered in the state at this stage). Sample: 559. Essential Research has Labor’s lead increasing from 51-49 to 53-47, from primary votes of Liberal-Nationals 38% (down four), Labor 39% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Sample: 1115.

South Australia: Morgan has the Liberals leading 54-46, down from 55-45 last time, from primary votes of Liberal 36.5% (down one), Labor 24.5% (steady), Nick Xenophon Team 19.5% (down 1.5%) and Greens 11% (up 1.5%). Sample: 665. Essential has a very different result, with Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 38% (up four), Liberal 30% (steady), Nick Xenophon Team 16% (down four) and Greens 7% (steady). Sample: 942.

Tasmania: The Liberals are up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down three to 33%, the Greens are up half to 16%, and the Jacqui Lambie Network is steady at 6%. Sample: 367.

ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Western Australia

Better news on the polling front for Colin Barnett, but Labor retains the lead.

Today’s Weekend West has a ReachTEL of state voting intention in Western Australia which has Labor with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Liberal 38.2%, Nationals 5.4%, Labor 36.5% and Greens 7.7%. This is a substantial improvement for the Liberals on the last such poll in March, which had Labor leading 56-44. Further questions find Mark McGowan favoured over Colin Barnett as preferred premier by 54.1-45.9, and Colin Barnett favoured as Liberal leader by 44.8%, compared with 30.6% for Liza Harvey, 11.3% for Mike Nahan, 7.8% for Joe Francis and 5.5% for Dean Nalder. The automated phone poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 1724.

UPDATE: The West has rolled out further results from the poll in its Monday and Tuesday editions. The poll found 44.9% in favour of the construction of both stages of the Perth Freight Link road project – to which Colin Barnett has only committed to the first stage, while Dean Nalder is aggrieved that he will not do so for both – versus 31.1% opposed, although I suspect there is too much nuance involved in this issue for the results to be of much use. This has now been followed by a finding that 45.4% support Nationals leader Brendon Grylls’ plan to hike Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton’s mining royalties payments from 25 cents a tonne to $5, with 31.5% opposed.

Morgan state polling: August 2016

Morgan’s latest SMS state polls find Labor dominant in Victoria but crashing in South Australia, with close results elsewhere. Also featured: union-commissioned private polling from New South Wales.

Roy Morgan has one of its occasional SMS state polls, conducted a while back now, from August 19 to 21. The poll is notable for the inclusion of One Nation and other new operators as response options.

• The Coalition in New South Wales has seven points gouged from its vote as One Nation notches 6%, recording 39% of the primary vote to Labor’s 30.5% (up 1.5%) and the Greens’ 13% (down four). On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead narrows from 53.5-46.5 to 50.5-49.5. Sample: 1360.

• Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party opens with 7% in Victoria, causing Labor to fall 3.5% to 37% and the Coalition to fall two points to 36%, while the Greens are up half to 13.5%. Labor retains a two-party lead of 55.5-44.5, compared with 56-44 last time. Sample: 1231.

• One Nation records 8.5% in Queensland, but this mostly comes from minor parties, with Labor up one to 36.5%, the Liberal National Party down two to 38.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Two-party is unchanged at 50-50. Sample: 858.

• Labor takes a 51-49 lead in Western Australia, reversing the previous result. On the primary vote, Labor is up 1.5% to 35.5%, the Liberals are down two to 34.5%, the Nationals are down half to 6.5%, the Greens are unchanged at 12.5%, and One Nation debuts with 5%. Sample: 806.

• The result from South Australia finds the Liberals breaking to a 55-45 lead, up from 52-48 last time, as the Nick Xenophon Team sheds seven points to 21%, Labor drops one to just 24.5%, and the Greens gain 1.5% to 9.5%. Sample: 553.

• In Tasmania, the Jacqui Lambie Network opens on 6%, with the Liberals down 3.5% to 37.5%, Labor down 1.5% to 36% and the Greens down 1.5% to 15.5%. However, sample: 321.

I have also been provided with ReachTEL polling of four state seats in New South Wales conducted for the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, which in three cases show big swings to Labor. The automated phone polls were conducted on August 28, from samples of about 750 per electorate.

• In Penrith, Labor is credited with 40.1% of the primary vote after distribution of a forced response question for the undecided (up 32.9% on the March 2011 election), the Liberals with 36.6% (down from 45.6%) and the Greens with 4.1% (down from 5.5%). This translates to a Labor lead of about 52-48, from a swing of 8%.

• Labor also lead by about 54-46 in the Illawarra seat of Kiama, for a swing of around 12.5%, from primary votes of Liberal 35.0% (down from 51.6%), Labor 39.2% (up from 32.1%) and Greens 12.9% (up from 11.1%).

• The other two seats are held by the Nationals, and while they both point to them retaining the seats, the swing recorded in Orange is approaching 15%. Primary votes are Nationals 43.7% (down from 65.6%), Labor 32.3% (up from 23.4%) and Greens 6.7% (down from 6.8%).

• However, next to no swing is recorded in Upper Hunter, where the Nationals are on 41.4% (up from 38.9%), Labor is on 36.9% (up from 32.5%) and the Greens are on 7.4% (up from 5.5%), suggesting little change to the Nationals’ 2% margin.

Essential Research state polling

Quarterly state polling finds the Coaltion’s lead narrowing in New South Wales, Labor taking the lead in Western Australia, and the Nick Xenophon Team on the rise in South Australia.

Essential Research has released results of polling on state voting intention compiled from its polling conducted from April through to June:

New South Wales: the Coalition leads 52-48, down from 56-44 the previous quarter, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (down three), Labor 37% (up three) and Greens 9% (down one). Sample: 3769.

Victoria: Labor’s lead is steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 41% (steady), Greens 12% (down one). Sample: 2803.

Queensland: Labor’s lead is down from 52-48 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 37% (down three), LNP 40% (steady), Greens 8% (down one). Sample: 2251.

Western Australia: Labor leads 51-49 after trailing 52-48 last time, from primary votes of Labor 39% (up five), Liberal-Nationals 42% (down two), Greens 10% (down two). Sample: 1105.

South Australia: Labor’s lead is down from 54-46 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down three), Liberal 30% (down one), Nick Xenophon Team 20% (up five), Greens 7% (down two). Sample: 912.

Morgan state polling: May 2016

Morgan’s SMS state polling finds the Liberals remaining competitive or better in Western Australia, and Labor running third in South Australia.

Roy Morgan has just unloaded its latest monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, which go as follows:

New South Wales: The Coalition’s two-party lead narrows from 55-45 to 53.5-46.5, with the Coalition primary vote unchaged at 46%, Labor up two to 29% and the Greens up 1.5% to 17%. Sample: 850.

Victoria: Labor’s lead increases from 55-45 to 56-44, with their primary vote unchanged at 40.5%, the Coalition down one to 38%, and the Greens up one to 13%. Sample: 1041.

Queensland: A tied result on two-party preferred, after Labor led 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 35.5%, the Coalition up half to 40.5%, and the Greens are down two to 10.5%. Sample: 915.

Western Australia: The Liberal-Nationals record a 51-49 lead, after trailing 52-48 last time. However, both Liberal and Labor are up three points on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 34% respectively, with the Nationals down one to 7% and the Greens down two to 12.5%. Mark McGowan leads Colin Barnett as preferred premier by 60.5-39.5, down from 62.5-37.5. Sample: 770.

South Australia: The Liberals lead 52-48 after a tied results last time, but more to the point, Labor is trailing the Nick Xenophon Team on the primary vote by 28% (up four) to 25.5% (down 1.5%), with the Liberals up one to 31%, the Greens down 2.5% to 8%, and Family First up half to 5%. Sample: 802.

Tasmania: The Liberals are up a point to 41%, Labor is up 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens are down 4.5%. Sample: 355.