|Martin Foley (Labor)||47.3||5.1||46.1||59.0|
|John Middleton (Greens)||27.8||9.1||28.2||41.0|
|Cameron Eastman (Family First)||4.8||3.8|
|Adrian Jackson (Independent)||1.0||-0.2|
|Shane McCarthy (DLP)||1.8|
|Paul Kavanagh (Democrats)||4.7|
|Prodos Marinakis (Independent)||5.4|
|John Dobinson (Independent)||0.8|
|Nigel Strauss (Independent)||6.5||COUNT||78 %|
9.55pm. Long-delayed final two-party booth for Albert Park now in, Labor’s 2PP on 57.7 per cent.
9.12pm. Postal votes now added.
8.49pm. Turnout in Albert Park not too bad: 25,669 polling booth votes cast (including informal) compared with 26,804 last year.
8.44pm. Two-party count for all booths in Williamstown has Labor on 64.6 per cent.
8.42pm. Informal vote a rather high 7 per cent in each electorate.
8.39pm. We’ve also got a two-party count from five booths in Albert Park, with Labor on 59.05 per cent, suggesting my preference calculations did their job.
8.38pm. Labor’s vote has also continued to edge upwards in Williamstown.
8.37pm. All booths now in for Albert Park, producing a slight narrowing the margin, but still a clear win for Labor.
8.25pm. Bridport and St Kilda Park booths now in, producing little change.
8.20pm. Now we’re talking. Confusing the two St Kilda booths actually flattered the Greens slightly, not Labor.
8.19pm. Actually, scratch that – there’s something screwy with my new calculations. Working on it. Labor should be doing better than they are.
8.16pm. I was actually comparing the wrong St Kilda booths just now. The correction has made the result a little closer.
8.10pm. A big burst of figures in from Williamstown, lifting the count from 37 per cent to 60 per cent. This has pushed Labor’s vote up to a handsome 56.5 per cent. It’s starting to look like a pretty good night for John Brumby.
8.07pm. St Kilda South now in, but it doesn’t quite bear out what I said in the previous comment. Greens up a fairly typical 8.8 per cent, producing only a slight narrowing of the two-party vote.
8.01pm. The Greens picked up a handy 13.4 per cent in Middle Park, which is nearest the St Kilda booths that are still yet to come. If that’s indicative of a trend in the south of the electorate, the Greens could at least be confident of closing the gap a little.
7.55pm. The new booth results are from Middle Park Bowling Club (weak for Labor), Elwood Park and Sol Green Community Centre (about average for Labor). There’s also a new booth in from Williamstown which has produced little change.
7.50pm. Three more booths in at Albert Park, and Labor looking good.
7.44pm. Actually, the 40 per cent mark is probably not that dangerous in the context of this election. Their vote in 2006 was 41.0 per cent. I’m reasonably confident about my 2PP figure in the above table (unless the result in this booth is aberrant).
7.41pm. More than 30 per cent counted in Williamstown and Labor comfortably over 50 per cent.
7.36pm. The first booth in for Albert is the Sandridge/Fishermens Bend booth, which is Labor’s strongest and the Greens’ weakest. Labor’s primary vote is dangerously close to the 40 per cent mark.
7.33pm. More results in from both seats …
7.33pm. Slowest count ever.
7.12pm. Two booths in from Williamstown, Labor on just over 50 per cent of the primary vote (compared with 62 per cent in 2006).
6.56pm. Looks like my “half an hour” ETA on first results was a little optimstic.
6.15pm. Polls closed for the Albert Park and Williamstown by-elections 15 minutes ago, and we should be getting results in about half an hour. I will keep a lazy eye on Williamstown, but the focus here is Albert Park where the Greens have at least a theoretical chance of recording an upset. The table above will compare available booth results with those from last year’s state election to produce an estimated final result on the primary vote, which will then be converted to two-party preferred on the following basis: 70 per cent to the Greens from the Democrats, Nigel Strauss and Adrian Jackson, 50 per cent from John Dobinson and 30 per cent from the DLP, Family First and Prodos Marinakis (all of whom are recommending the Greens be put last). Anyone who doubts any of these assessments is invited to raise their voice in comments, and I will consider changing them.